tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-60379401599569454892024-03-19T00:21:25.634-04:00Power CapPower cap- existential handicappingG. C.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07604839670701867384noreply@blogger.comBlogger604125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-92131447889470128232012-05-23T22:18:00.000-04:002012-05-26T16:21:37.004-04:00A turning point?Racing stands at the brink of greatness again with an 12th bid for the Triple Crown, the first one in 34 years if I'll Have Another is successful. At this point the failed bids since the last sweep at the throne now exceed the number of champions who climbed the peak. Averaged out, there has been one try every three years for this title for a horse no to do this at this point is abnormal. As a weathered racing fan once said, “Anything is possible and probable.” Could this year’s challenger do it? He stands just as good a chance as his last ten peers who attempted the feat. Racing needs more than one champion to spur a revival in the sport though.<br />
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Competition lends to the sport; the past two races in the series were close finishes between two top tier runners for their generation that sparked debate and strong opinions among the fans. More of the same throughout the rest of the year in the other important races would be unreal. The elite of horse racing needs to meet up more that two or three times in the year. Top horses vying for the big prizes sparks interest and increased handle on the big days. We had a taste of this in 2007 when Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, and Rags to Riches met up in the spring and later on the first two mentioned had a rematch in the Classic with Horse of the Year on the line. Unfortunately, Hard Spun and Street Sense were whisked away to stud leaving Curlin all alone to do the entire heavy lifting the following year. More competition at the top is better for the product, people like seeing the best of any sport going head to head frequently. Thus more incentive should be put up to see elite meet up more often.<br />
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There are other divisions than the three-year-old colts; it is hard to believe that from the coverage racing receives beyond the Belmont Stakes. The second half of the racing season has taken up bigger importance now that the top horses are on a lighter schedule. Every race in each division takes on a playoff feel as the season progresses. Now that NBC Sports has picked coverage of the important races in the summer and fall one would hope that this takes place. The more coverage that horse racing receives, the better it is for all involved. More casual fans could show up and increased wagering volume is a positive byproduct that could be seen from this.<br />
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All the tools are there for thoroughbred racing to make a decent comeback. Last time this sport was in a position to move forward was 2008, NBC had 2/3 of the Triple Crown and ESPN had rights to most of the major races from June on. ESPN did little with their resources, minimized their coverage, and racing remained stagnant from the point that Big Brown pulled up on the far turn at Belmont. NBC Sports and horse racing are sitting on a gold mine win, lose, or draw on the afternoon of June 9th. It is all about the utilization of the tools at their disposal.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-1524259998587154002012-04-26T20:33:00.002-04:002012-04-26T20:33:45.578-04:00All roads lead to LouisvilleThe prep season for the Derby is just about complete barring a monstrous effort by anything coming out of the Derby Trial. Before going into full immersion on the major three year old stakes; the Derby Trial is more or less an early season long sprint/middle distance race for sophomore runners rather than a major stepping stone towards Triple Crown glory, it’s probably time to rename that race. <br />
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The first of six big three-year-old races was the Florida Derby, featuring the Uncle Mo like flop of Union Rags. Read what you will into his race-day performances of 2012, but on the surface he has yet to step up in a major way on paper with middling pace and speed figures. If you are firmly entrenched in his camp all is not lost though, Matz is an all-pro conditioner and he is trying to get his runner to peak on the third start. As for the winner Take Charge Indy, he was on the best part of the track on that day and capitalized. Reveron, the runner-up was a rank outsider that chased throughout and held off a hard charging Union Rags, there evidence of a speed bias is apparent from this day as well.<br />
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A day later the Louisiana Derby was shook to it’s core by a 109-1 longshot that wired from post 12. Mark Valeski was put on the bubble by not winning this race and he ran alright here. He could be a solid value if he makes the final cut. It should be noted that the Louisiana path to the Kentucky Derby has been a treacherous one since Grindstone won in 1996.<br />
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The Wood Memorial was a tight stretch run between Gemologist and Alpha where both accomplished what they needed to do going into the first Saturday in May. Gemologist needed a win or a strong performance to move on and Alpha needed earnings to stay away from the brink. Off the two Alpha looked like the the better performance. From the DRF charts:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“APLHA rubbed shoulders with CASUAL TRICK leaving the starting gate, took the inside route in the initial stages, was steadied off of another’s heels midway around the opening bend…”</blockquote>
The comments on Alpha continue on to mention that he went three wide for his stretch run over a track that favored the inside. Gemologist faced Currency Swap in his 2012 debut, Currency Swap went on to finish in a separate zip code from the Illinois Derby winner in his next start.<br />
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I’ll Have Another has had one of the greater form reversals seen in long time, after a distant effort in the Hopeful in the Saratoga mud he has put together two stakes wins off of said September layoff. The field of 20 will test his mettle with a stronger early pace. Creative Cause had his form enhanced thanks to Bodemiester’s monster effort in the Arkansas Derby.<br />
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The Bluegrass came up a fast race on pace and speed figures in limited data at the distance. From the looks of it though, there won’t be much of a change in this number for this boutique meet. This race was the tale of two halves with Hansen winging it early in his usual fast early, slowing down late style and Dullahan making a dramatic sweeping run to the winner’s circle in the final 3/8 of a mile. Dullahan is winless on the dirt, but he faced tough competition last fall on that surface. He was fourth behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause in the Juvenile. He made a grand sweeping move in that race as well. Workouts will tell the tale of how things will go with this one.<br />
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Last but not least is the tour de force performance of Bodemiester, the likely Derby favorite. So far his brief time on the track Bodemiester has showcased turbo-charged performances that bear a striking resemblance to Curlin’s early career trajectory. All the intangibles of his recent victory have been mentioned repeatedly elsewhere and need no repeating here. He will factor into the early pace in a big way with Hansen and the assorted hopeless speed bombers that will sign up. He either will be Big Brown or Bellamy Road in this race; the likely low odds in a crowded field are no treat at all.<br />
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The average odds of the Derby winner from the past three years have been 28-1 with the low being 8-1 and the high being 50-1. The prospectus of this year’s group looks less likely for tote board busting payouts in comparison to recent years. If the history of the big race day returns have proved anything though, it is that even the likely results can produce a decent return on investment. Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-5463730112972509062012-03-10T00:30:00.001-05:002012-03-10T10:59:05.627-05:002012 Derby Failure FiveBetter late than never, I am blaming Union Rags for this. According to e-mails I receive from the Daily Racing Form, the Kentucky Derby season is in full swing. It doesn’t feel like it though. The meticulously planned out campaigns of the top runners and likely nominees for the failure five list are planned out into such detail that some of the hopefuls will scratch from a race on the faintest feeling of a stiff breeze. Last year’s lists fared pretty well with a high failure or success rate depending on the point of view. Maybe there is a pressure to perform on the next go around, we shall see.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1. Union Rags</span><br /><br />Top of the heap after his visually impressive score in the Fountain of Youth. The pace and speed figures were a bit pedestrian. Last year I was on the Tapizar bandwagon and the tires went flat on that, this year it is Union Rags. Only two starts to the Derby, there is not much room for error if a prep or work is missed.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2. Hansen</span><br /><br />Here is a synopsis of his two races this year (leader in races among top derby prospects), fast early and slowing down late. The Wood is the next stop from all indications and he certainly doesn’t need the earnings to get in. Look for more refinement of the rating tactics that Dominguez employed in the Gotham next out.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3. El Padrino</span><br /><br />Algorithms is off the trail. Too bad, that one had a lot of talent. El Padrino is the Pletcher pinch hitter off of a popular Risen Star score. Usually Fair Grounds runners have a tough pull, it’s been over a decade since Grindstone captured the bed of roses via the bayou.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">4. Feb Biz/I'll Have Another/Any colt that has won an allowance or maiden race at Santa Anita</span><br /><br />Pretty interchangeable part of the list, it seems that there is a good-looking winner out there at least once a week and Baffert usually trains the colt. It would not register as a surprise if the Santa Anita Derby draws twelve entries this year.<br /><br style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: italic;">Ed. Note: Out of Bounds was originally here until someone pointed out he was injured a few days ago. Shows how much I follow the racing product at Santa Anita.</span><br style="font-style: italic;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">5. Alpha</span><br /><br />NYRA has boosted its purses and moved around its stakes schedule to be more prominent, so far it has produced some timid fields and short priced victors. Alpha ran fast enough to be competitive deeper into the season in his Withers score, but he has to do it again against the big boys to be taken seriously. The Florida Derby will be the acid test for this one.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-25429880275794183682012-02-08T19:30:00.001-05:002012-02-08T19:30:01.002-05:00From the infieldI got out to the infield at Aqueduct <a href="http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2011/04/retro-files-aqueduct-infield-pictures.html">a while back</a> and recently I got out onto the massive infield of Belmont Park, it is no wonder they used the middle of this racetrack as a landing strip at one point.<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2494.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2494.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Winter track maintenance<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2506.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2506.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>The surface of champions<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2508.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2508.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Widener Turf Course<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2510.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2510.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Inner turf course, home of the Manhattan Handicap<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2517.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2517.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Old tote, minus light board<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2515.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2515.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Inside the old tote board, now a flag storage center and groundskeeping HQ.<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2518.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2518.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Gazebo<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2523.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2523.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>The view from the other side.<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2519.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Belmont%20Closed%20GS/Offseason%20Belmont%202012/IMG_2519.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-38378445989505150972011-12-29T20:00:00.001-05:002011-12-29T20:00:04.234-05:002011 Year in ReviewA lot of the events that happened last year could be copied and pasted with minor alterations and no one would notice the difference. A filly is the likely horse of the year (Rachel Alexandra 2009 and Zenyatta 2010), the three-year-old colts performed the one and done symphony in the Triple Crown, and there is a lack of depth in the older males division.<br /><br /> Havre de Grace’s rise to the top was not a cakewalk by any stretch of the imagination. She had to face her nemesis Blind Luck twice and her last start against her foe was a gut wrenching nose defeat going 1 ¼ miles. She rebounded with an authoritative score against males in the Woodward and aired against her own gender in the Beldame. Those two late season scores came against the likes of Flat Out and Royal Delta, not bad company. The season ended sourly for her with a defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, not detracting from her record of five wins from seven starts and three grade one victories. Unfortunately she has come along after two years that featured the brilliance of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, and Goldikova. If her record was separated from this group of years and placed in a different generation, she would be held in much higher regard.<br /><br /> The three-year-old colts played hot potato with division leader status all year and that is why we are in this predicament. After Uncle Mo, the default leader defected from the Derby there was much changing of the guard. Animal Kingdom was crowned leader only to beget by Shackleford who then was thrashed by Ruler On Ice only to be squashed by Coil who was uprooted by Stay Thirsty. Outside of the traditional classics there was some consistency with Caleb’s Posse and To Honor and Serve. Caleb’s Posse won four graded stakes ranging from six and half furlongs to one mile and a sixteenth with two of those victories being in grade one company. Outside of the Classic flop To Honor and Serve did little wrong from August to November with three wins, one being against the brass of the division in the Pennsylvania Derby and the other against his seniors in the Cigar Mile. He will be set up for a big run in 2012 with a likely start in the Met Mile. <br /><br />As for the case against making Caleb’s Posse best of his division, it is hard to understand why he wouldn’t be considered for the honors. The horses that competed in the classic races of the spring were not that good or fast; Animal Kingdom may be a one-time wonder, Shackleford looked weak outside of one freak performance in mid May, and Ruler On Ice ran the race of his life in the Belmont. Caleb’s Posse at least posed some sort of consistent form throughout the season and should be awarded for it even though he took an unconventional route in doing so.<br /><br /> Gio Ponti was made champion older colt after a strong season on turf in 2009, Cape Blanco may do the same thing this year after an uninspiring year for the older dirt runners. Tizway was considered the beast of the east before hitting the sidelines, but with only two grade one victories and an extremely spaced out schedule from April to August it has put his chances of winning the title on the rocks. Flat Out tried usurping the title from Tizway with wins in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Suburban, but was exposed with three loses at Churchill and two losses at Saratoga. Game On Dude was very game in his performances, but a two for seven winning record in stakes company is tough to put a title on.<br /><br /> A year that started out with a murky picture for the keynote divisions did not improve and in some cases got even darker. This was a strange year for certain. There is no despair here though. With a New Year upon us new things come to fruition like a renewal of the reliable Derby failure five, featuring this year’s Juvenile hero Hansen! Likely there will be other twists and turns along the way too. Remember that Stormy’s Majesty is always lurking in the weeds.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-1716369534535520352011-11-03T21:15:00.005-04:002011-11-03T21:27:00.870-04:00Uncle Mo vs. 1 1/4 miles and fourteen other racesWith six Breeders' Cup races on Friday and nine on Saturday, it is almost certain financial doom to play every race. With this being said, we here at Powercap introduce the almost infallible five star rating system to evaluate the races on hand.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">The Friday Slate</span></span><br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >*****</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />The Distaff (Race 10)</span><br /><br />Last year it was a rematch of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, this year It's Tricky and Plum Pretty square off for the fourth time this year. Elsewhere in the field is Ask the Moon, her connections made an interesting decision of running at Santa Anita in her latest to no avail after two good efforts at the Spa. If she can rebound from her last race, she will be a tough customer here.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >****</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Filly & Mare Turf (Race 9)</span><br /><br />This is the race where the American based turf runners have the best chance of winning against the Europeans on their familiar surface. Stacelita is listed as the 2/1 favorite and has the edge of winning at 1 3/8 miles around the tight turns. Her last race was over a turf that was dead slow, my figures have it at -19 slow.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:130%;">***</span><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 7)</span><br /><br />Turbulent Descent looks to sew up a title here and she looks like a vulnerable favorite. The Puype filly has been off since early August and the early pace of that race was average at best before Descent blew by competition like Roman Treasure late.<br /><br />An interesting horse in this spot is Great Hot who had two starts in October and a start against her elders in the Lady's Secret. Her sprint starts are decent from the looks of it going three for three in her attempts.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Juvenile Sprint (Race 5)</span><br /><br />Yet another juvenile cash grab has been added to the schedule. Trinniberg has come up short twice against stakes competition. Secret Circle ran big in his debut race. Toss Vexor's Hopeful performance and he doesn't miss the board in his short career. Seeker had a big race two back on Hopeful day. It should be a good first installment for this race.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >**</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Juvenile Fillies (Race 8)</span><br /><br />My Miss Aurelia looks to avoid the career trajectory that AZ Warrior took after her win in last year's Frizette.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >*</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 6)</span><br /><br />On the course of any card there is a race or two that handicappers don't like playing and the combined phrase of juvenile fillies on the turf is my kryptonite.<br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">The Saturday Slate</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >*****</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Classic (Race 11)</span><br /><br />The five million dollar question here is Uncle Mo's ability to stay the mile and a quarter. The last time a three year old favorite tried stretching out from one mile to a mile and a quarter was Fusaichi Pegasus. It didn't work in 2000, I have my doubts it will work now. Keep in mind that Fusaichi Pegasus was trying this after winning the Derby. The longest distance that Mo has won at was a mile and a sixteenth.<br /><br />Ruler On Ice looks interesting here, he gets a ten pound weight shift from To Honor and Serve and has won at a mile and half. Stay Thirsty also gets another look here as the unheralded Repole entry here, he ran in every step of the Belmont and won the midsummer classic. To Honor and Serve comes in hot here and the only setback is he is picking up eight pounds off of his previous start.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >****</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Sprint (Race 5)</span><br /><br /><a href="http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2011/10/get-to-know-bc-prospect-jackson-bend.html">I guess that Zito is one of the twelve readers of this blog.</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Mile (Race 10)</span><br /><br />Apparently Goldikova is on the decline, if I owned a horse that was on this type downward spiral I would be overjoyed. Win or lose, this mare's spot as one of the all time Breeders' Cup performers is secure. It will be quite a while until another one like her comes around.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >***</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Dirt Mile (Race 7)</span><br /><br />In a rare occurrence the Preakness winner is in a race that is not the Classic. In his defeats since the Preakness the margin has been 7 3/4, a neck, 22 1/2, and 4 3/4. He is probably a good bet against here.<br /><br />Tapizar came back with a victory after missing the Triple Crown series, he is probably a bit short for this spot. He does look like one to watch out for in the 2012 season though.<br /><br />Trappe Shot is in this race after seemingly being aimed at the Sprint all season long, his running style better meant for the mile distance though. Not a lot was lost in transition to this race.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Juvenile Turf (Race 4)</span><br /><br />If it weren't for the Pilgrim returnees entered here this race would be a one star affair. Shkspeare Shaliyah and Fantastic Song ran a closing number over the dead boggy turf that was 14 and 17 lengths faster than average. Not bad for a turf runner and that is exceptional for juveniles.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">**</span></span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Juvenile (Race 9)</span><br /><br />Union Rags could wrap up the Juvenile title and Derby favoritism with a win here. It seems like anytime there is a two year colt that wins two or three big races in NY they are immediately shot to the front of every public handicapper's Derby list. They usually fall short of the Derby expectations. It happened to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve last year, Nobiz Like Shobiz years ago, and Doneraile Court around a decade ago. The last time a hyped NY juvenile won a triple crown race was 2004 when Birdstone upset the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Turf (Race 8)</span><br /><br />The European invaders will all be bet here and <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/crist-european-dominance-turf-races-wont-end-soon">Steven Crist is a big fan of the American turf runners entered</a>. Of course the overseas counterparts have a great edge, they carry weight in the big races and all of their marquee events are on the lawn.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >*</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Marathon (Race 3)</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Turf Sprint (Race 6)</span><br /><br />These two categories are also my handicapping kryptonite.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-33688447211986698892011-10-22T02:22:00.002-04:002011-10-22T02:25:25.392-04:00Finally Contessa Gets It RightThis race is the play of the day. Preachintothedevil finally cuts back to a dirt sprint. His biggest career win was in a dirt sprint. His highest career beyer fig was in a dirt sprint. His dam was the famous Grade I winning dirt sprinter Acey Deucey. So what does Contessa do with this crack sprinter? He runs him in grass routes, dirt routes, poly routes , turf sprints- with the way this guy has been handled I am surprised Contessa-San didn't enter him in a steeplechase. Finally he is entered in the right kind of race and he should give a true account of his skills today.<br /><br />W #8 Preachintothedevil<br /><br />ps. This is my first post after an extended hiatus from the game.G. C.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07604839670701867384noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-83320657612203981682011-10-20T19:00:00.000-04:002011-10-20T19:00:01.493-04:00They start with an advantageIt’s the end of October and that means two things. The first is that all of the important grade one races are over until the fourth of November and it is now time for the state breeding programs to shine. This upcoming Saturday is New York Showcase day and next week California bred runners take the spotlight. Last week Delaware and Thistledown showed off the best of their breeding programs from their states. <br /><br />The fact of the matter is that while a lot of the state bred races from any track is usually impossible to scope at times, they serve a purpose of bringing in handle and filling the daily racing cards. Without the NY bred maiden special weight or first level allowance races that usually populate the weekday cards, NYRA would likely have to cutback racing dates due to the lack of races being filled. Not to go as far as using the term “necessary evil”, but these races usually serve a purpose on a daily basis.<br /><br />In the instance of the showcase day cards, they usually are loaded cards with some decent fields. Not to mention the occasional horse on the rise that pop up once in a while. Funny Cide won the 2002 Sleepy Hollow and Haynesfield won the 2009 Empire Classic, the year after their victories were multiple graded stakes winners. <br /><br />The state bred showcase days serve as a useful part of the racing landscape at this time of the year when the all stars of the sport converge on location, leaving the feeder tracks with little pull in the way of attention towards their racing product. The restricted state bred stakes races fill what would be a dead card with some interesting match-ups and provide some cover to what otherwise would be referred to as a barren part of the racing calendar.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-81768535283117678172011-10-17T17:00:00.000-04:002011-10-17T17:00:00.414-04:00Get to know a BC prospect: The Southern California RoundupAdmittedly this site does not cover a lot of the news or horses that run on the opposite coast. It must be the three-hour time difference, general malaise towards the product offered at the three principal tracks, the two synthetic surfaces that are in place, the high takeout rates, or some combination of the four. Whatever the case may be, they do produce some decent runners for the big day much like the other major circuits do. A scouting report on the some of the big players coming to Louisville is in order.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Game On Dude</span><br /><br />He is listed at 15/1 in the recent Breeders’ Cup write up for the Daily Racing Form. Seems a bit high even for a rough sketch on the contenders they list. Awesome Gem is the longest shot listed immediately after the Dude at 20/1. This one has been the hard trying type all year long and seems to favor dirt surfaces with two major wins over the Santa Anita surface. His early speed always puts him in contention and he could hang around for the finish if unattended and treated as cheap speed.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Factor</span><br /><br />It’s been an up and down year for this highly touted Baffert runner, after winning two straight grade two races he was defeated in the Arkansas Derby and laid up until the Pat O’Brien stakes where he defeated Smiling Tiger with weight concessions. The Ancient Title was a flat effort where he finished off the board causing high rolling show bettors to look for tall buildings and bridges. He is a Jekyll and Hyde horse if there ever was one, which one will show up on the first Saturday of November is anyone’s guess. Buyers beware.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Dubawi Heights</span><br /><br />If Stacelita is at the top of the older filly grass ranks for the U.S. then this one is not far behind. They were one-two in their only meeting on a neutral site at Arlington Park and those two went on to win their next starts in easy fashion. The 11 furlongs of the distaff turf race will be a question mark for this one though as it will be her first trip going three turns and an eighth of a mile longer than she has ever gone in her career. Her rival Stacelita has already done the trip against colts in the United Nations back in July with a respectable third to show for it.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-16043850159903514852011-10-05T23:00:00.005-04:002011-10-17T17:03:36.225-04:00Get to know a BC prospect: Jackson BendLikely race he will be entered in: Dirt Mile<br /><br />Reports about the demise of his racing career have been greatly exaggerated. After brawling with the apex of his class throughout his three-year-old season and showing four in the money finishes out of eight starts with no wins it looked like he was burnt out. After a November to March freshening he had four starts down in Florida with the same results as his 2010 season. Then there was a sudden revival when he hit the track at Saratoga, two straight wins in convincing fashion.<br /><br />Something broke him out of the malaise of his 0-12 skid that lasted from 2010 to 2011. Was it the fresh country air of Saratoga, the beautiful women who attend the races up there, the mineral rich spring water, or maybe a combination of any of these factors? No, it was the fact that he got back to what brought him to the dance. Sprint races got him noticed as a juvenile down at Calder and eventually led to the high profile acquisition by Robert LaPenta. In his most recent at Belmont, he had Uncle Mo by the collar at the top of the stretch before the big horse turned on the afterburners. The thought process now among the connections is that if he can run 7/8 of mile, he can run the flat mile, heck he almost circled a talented colt at the mile distance.<br /><br />The Breeders Cup Sprint is a better option. The pace is usually hot enough for a closer like Jackson Bend to make a sustained bid and as mediocre as the middle distance dirt runners, the sprint division is doing its part in keeping pace in this category. The cutback from a mile to six furlongs is not without foundation either, Silver Train pulled off the feat back in 2005 by running in the mile Jerome Stakes and winning the Sprint later on. Some closers at the 7/8 distance look like they can get the extra 660 feet because of the explosive kick they have shown at the shorter distance. A good percentage of the time that is due to the pace at seven furlongs being hot and the horse getting on a roll at the right moment. The mile can be trickier; sometimes the pace does not develop and this leaves the closers behind the eight ball.<br /><br />Jackson Bend is a better fit for the sprint based on the fact he has shown very little in the way of winning past the sprint distances. If he does go in the mile he will be an overbet option in a large field, not the type of preposition any gambler should make. If he goes in the Sprint he will one of a plethora of viable options to take down the jackpot and you may get a price on him. If Zito is a reader of this site then here is a bit of free advice, RUN JACKSON BEND IN THE SPRINT.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-2816349039904101072011-10-01T23:48:00.011-04:002011-10-02T13:18:41.065-04:00He has Mo-mentumSuper Saturday was a formful day where the betting favorite took down four out of the six stakes races. Speed seemed best on the muddy dirt surface where most of the winners were either close to or on the the lead in the early stages.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2398.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2398.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Stacelita continued her superiority over her own gender on the turf. She will likely be a very well bet favorite for the Filly and Mare Turf off of this effort. How good is this filly? Dubawi Heights, the filly who ran second to Stacelita in the Beverly D. won the Yellow Ribbon a couple of hours later.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2420.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2420.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Cape Blanco has been racking up the frequent flier miles lately and Dean's Kitten almost took advantage of this. Dean's Kitten ran as a good a race as any of the other winners from today's card. The cross continental trips may be taking a toll Cape Blanco and if he goes in the BC Turf he could be a good play against.<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2426a.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 320px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2426a.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Giant Ryan got to the front during the early stages and did not look back. As the old advertisement for the NY breds goes, "They start with an advantage.".<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2446.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2446.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Uncle Mo loves Belmont and rolls into the Breeders' Cup with this zippy win. The connections of Uncle Mo are toying with the idea of going to the Classic if he did well in this race. It seems like a bad idea, Fusaichi Pegasus tried to the mile stretch out to the classic with no success and Mo seems to thrive at the one turn mile. He could be the first horse to win two different BC races either way, might as well try it in a spot he does well in.<br /><br />Jackson Bend made a nice run at the winner at the top of the stretch, he has matured into a decent long sprinter. The spot I would run him in off of this race is the BC Sprint, the Dirt Mile may be an 1/8 beyond his best distance and he has not attempted the six furlong distance in quite a while. It may be worth a shot to run in the Sprint.<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2464a.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 639px; height: 207px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2464a.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>Havre de Grace won the Beldame with ease and she looked the part of a champion every step of the way through this race. With Blind Luck's loss in the Lady's Secret, her arch rival Havre de Grace edges that much closer to her hopes at Horse of the Year honors.<br /><br /><a href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2490.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/BEL%2010-1-11/IMG_2490.jpg" alt="" border="0" /><span style="display: block;" id="formatbar_Buttons"><span onmouseover="ButtonHoverOn(this);" onmouseout="ButtonHoverOff(this);" onmouseup="" onmousedown="CheckFormatting(event);FormatbarButton('richeditorframe', this, 8);ButtonMouseDown(this);" class=" down" style="display: block;" id="formatbar_CreateLink" title="Link"><img src="http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif" alt="Link" class="gl_link" border="0" /></span></span></a>Flat Out made it two for two over the Belmont dirt with his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Stay Thirsty made a run at the winner, but it was too late. Drosselmeyer ran a nice effort to grab the place spot by making up ground in the last eighth of a mile, this effort could set him up well for the BC Marathon.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-86870324323791391682011-09-27T20:30:00.000-04:002011-09-27T20:30:00.723-04:00Get to know a BC prospect: To Honor and Serve<span style="font-style: italic;">The Breeders’ Cup is a double-edged sword, what it offers in deep fields with an inordinate amount of quality horse flesh also takes away from other tracks due to trainers meticulously planning their schedules around having their horses ready for the big day. That being said it does help to scout and assess the top prospects leading up to the two days. Much like what we did for the lead up to the Kentucky Derby, we will do a series on these runners in their march towards November. Time to better get to know a Breeder’s Cup prospect.</span><br /><br />Likely race he will be entered in: Classic<br /><br />What’s old is new, back in the spring this Mott runner was not up to the rigors of the Triple Crown series and much like fellow juvenile superstar Uncle Mo he missed the big dance completely. Whatever problems he had are behind him after two straight authoritative wins at two turns going nine furlongs. Stamina for the mile and a quarter journey that he will likely embark on should not be a problem with Bernardini as the sire and the dam's sire being Deputy Minister.<br /><br />With three races from the span of August 1st to September 24th and two wins to show from it, one being a win in the Pennsylvania Derby it is hard not say he is in top physical shape right now. The Classic has had its share of three-year-old colts take down the big prize. Curlin, Tiznow, and Concern come to mind; what is a recurring trait among them is that they put in strong efforts in their races leading up to the big day.<br /><br />In To Honor and Serve’s Saratoga romp, his early pace figures against the adjusted average calls were twelve and eleven lengths faster than par and his speed figure was eight lengths faster when he was clear and coasting home. His biggest advantage may not be on pace and speed figures either, he was sidelined during the big three races in the spring. Now he is back as a fresh runner while the rest of his class has been butting heads for the past couple of months. If he remains sound and sharp he will be a dangerous runner on the big day of racing.Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-39184814355333654502011-09-03T22:00:00.000-04:002011-09-03T22:00:01.036-04:00Grace Under PressureThe last Saturday at Saratoga featured three grade one races, all with varying degrees of importance now that the calender has turned to September. The highlight of the day being Havre De Grace's attempt at beating the older colts.
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<br />The Personal Ensign was rescheduled from August 27th to this Saturday due to inclement weather. It didn't make a difference to Ask The Moon, who swept the distaff races at Saratoga with a wire to wire win. With the older filly division depleted beyond the top two (Blind Luck and Havre De Grace) and the three year old females yet to take on their elders, it should be an interesting set of fall races.
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<br />Jackson Bend spent last year chasing some of the better runners of his generation with nothing to show for it other than a few tough beats. What a difference a year makes, the sprint division is anyone's for the taking and his win in the Forego puts him squarely in the lead group of contenders for champion sprinter. The last few seasons the Forego has served as a highly important race earmarked by Midnight Lute and Big Drama winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint after a start in the Forego.
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<br />Rachel Alexandra used the Woodward as the end to a perfect season and Horse of the Year honors, this year Havre De Grace is trying the same path to the eclipse awards. Tracking Rule most of the way and being asked for run during the stretch when needed she was an authoritative winner. The race in all likelihood did not take as much energy out of the victor as it did Rachel Alexandra two years ago, Rachel was on the lead the whole way and had to fight off a few late challengers in order to stay perfect for the year. Havre De Grace avoided any dirt in the face and took a wide trip sweeping by Rule with ease, there is probably enough left in the proverbial tank for one more race before the end of the year. The prospectus of the colts and geldings aiming for the classic is not an imposing bunch, so it may be worth it for Havre De Grace to take another shot at the males in the Breeders' Cup Classic. She has already showed an ability to go the distance and that is half the battle in the Classic.
<br />Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-57899414041425956392011-09-01T14:00:00.001-04:002011-09-01T14:00:02.991-04:00Tale of the Tape, Uncle Mo vs. Stay Thirsty<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Saratoga%202011/IMG-20110831-00017.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 640px; height: 480px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Saratoga%202011/IMG-20110831-00017.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>
<br />After this past weekend where Mike Repole’s two stars represented his stable very well, it seems like all the talk is about Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/stay-thirsty-finally-escapes-uncle-mos-shadow">Andy Beyer</a> made it the subject of his Wednesday piece in the Daily Racing Form and Stay Thirsty was the cover story on the Saratoga Special on the same day. Pletcher mentioned in passing after the events of the weekend his intention of not having his two champions not being in the same race during the fall. It only seems fair to match these two up in the way boxers are sized up before a prizefight in the tale of the tape.
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<br />Major NY Stakes wins
<br />Uncle Mo: Champagne Stakes
<br />Stay Thirsty: Gotham, Jim Dandy, and Travers
<br />Edge: Thirsty, he is truly NY’s horse. It should be noted due to my general laziness that I am shortening up the names to Mo and Thirsty from this point forward.
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<br />Eclipse Awards
<br />Mo: King of the Juvenile colts
<br />Thirsty: Zero
<br />Edge: Mo, there is no such thing as a cheap shot in this venue.
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<br />Starts in the 2011 Triple Crown
<br />Mo: Zero
<br />Thirsty: Two
<br />Edge: Thirsty, what goes around comes around.
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<br />Powercap Nickname
<br />Mo: Mr. Softee
<br />Thirsty: No nickname given
<br />Edge: Mo, to jest is to care. In hindsight we should have given a nickname to every starter in the Triple Crown series this year. Live and learn.
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<br />Respective Performances on August 27th
<br />Mo: Photo finish loss after a five-month layoff with noted medical issues
<br />Thirsty: Won the Travers
<br />Edge: Push, if Mo had the benefit of a race before the King’s Bishop and a bit more in the way of works before the month of July he may have won that race.
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<br />Going Forward
<br />Mo: Pennsylvania Derby? Vosburgh? Jockey Club Gold Cup? Who knows?
<br />Thirsty: The main goal in all likeliness in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
<br />Edge: Thirsty, a defined course is better than being adrift at sea with no direction.
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<br />Beyer Speed Figure
<br />Mo: 106
<br />Thirsty: 101
<br />Edge: Mo, even in defeat he puts up a lot of heat. He probably is a better one-turn runner than a router as well.
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<br />This is getting tiresome, after seven rounds of conjecture it is all tied up at 3-3 with one push. Well, this didn’t solve anything at all. Might as well have them run against each other at some point in the near future.
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<br />Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-1652970776383137552011-08-28T19:00:00.001-04:002011-08-28T19:00:02.667-04:00End of the season shuffleAnother grade one race for three year old colts and yet another winner to join the crowded club for 2011. With the Travers having the distinction of being the last grade one on the books exclusively for the sophomore class and no one creating some distance from the competition, it will be a mad scramble to the end of the year to decide the championships. In this case chaos is good. Uncle Mo did not win the King’s Bishop and if anything may be back for a shot at redemption at four years old, seeing how his three-year-old season has turned into a wash. Shackleford was less than a length away from clinching the division title back on July 31st and now is back in a tie with the rest of the division. Stay Thristy is the resurgent force of the division with two recent wins and was a close second in the Belmont. With the magic number set at two grade one wins, the whole lot is stuck at one.
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<br />The parity trend is not isolated to the three-year-old males, the filly counterparts went from a division that was It’s Tricky’s to capture back into a group that any able bodied filly can win if they get on a hot streak. Turbulent Descent probably benefits the most from last week’s upheaval, as she is a multiple graded stakes winner this year. She may only need the rest of the division to trade off victories or loses to the older fillies in the fall stakes races and a Breeders’ Cup win in order to clinch. It’s Tricky remains closer to the honors than the rest of the fillies and a win against older fillies would likely grab the title.
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<br />Tizway is the default leader of the older males with wins in the Met Mile and Whitney, one more grade one and he gets the trophy with little resistance. The rest of the elder colts and geldings in that group are a jumbled mess and wins by a combination of any of them probably won’t do much to uproot the current leader.
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<br />The horse of the year championship is a four-way race at this point. Cape Blanco has two major victories stateside and a third one could get him the nod. Tizway will probably need one or two more major victories. Then there is the predicament of Havre De Grace and Blind Luck.
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<br />These two fillies have faced off against each other throughout various points in the past two years and have traded decisions with a narrow margin of victory almost every time. Havre De Grace is on target for the Woodward this upcoming Saturday at Saratoga and Havre De Grace has two races left on the schedule for the remainder of the season. If Havre De Grace wins against the males and it is a taxing effort like the one Rachel Alexandra put forth in her conquest of this race the important question is do you put her away for the year or squeeze one more race out of her for the year? Blink Luck could run the table and easily take the Horse of the Year honors away for Havre De Grace.
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<br />It is unprecedented that a filly or mare has won the Horse of the Year honors for three straight seasons and it may happen this year with the way the division races have shaped up. While horses trading decisions for the past eight months is not the most thrilling of things to follow throughout the year, it does provide for an interesting finish to a season filled with parity.
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<br />Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-303886370888422722011-08-27T20:30:00.001-04:002011-08-27T20:30:00.060-04:00A photo finish is worth three words<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Saratoga%202011/Mofoto.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 639px; height: 394px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/Saratoga%202011/Mofoto.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>
<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/aqueduct/April%209%20Wood%20Memorial/MOFOjito.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 511px; height: 640px;" src="http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m173/shemmy86/aqueduct/April%209%20Wood%20Memorial/MOFOjito.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a>
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<br />Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-75879190279992317462011-08-18T21:00:00.002-04:002011-08-18T21:00:01.288-04:00Where’s the media circus?It’s Tricky is in a position to sweep a prestigious series of three races that has been a staple of North American racing for the past 54 years, the Triple Tiara. A horse has not swept the three race series since its “classic” configuration back in 1993 when Sky Beauty won the Acorn, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks. The list of fillies that have done this feat reads as a veritable all-star team of hall of fame inductees Dark Mirage, Shuvee, Chris Evert, Ruffian, Dovona Dale, Mom’s Command, Open Mind, and Sky Beauty. The question worth asking is why isn’t It’s Tricky getting more mainstream coverage? Any time a male counterpart captures the Derby and Preakness, there is a media circus surrounding the final leg of the Triple Crown.
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<br />The short answer to the question above is it’s tricky. The long answer is that in the past eight years they have had three different configurations to the series. 2002 played out the string of 45 years of consistent scheduling for the classic series. In 2003 the Alabama was placed in the set displacing the Acorn and a bonus of two million dollars was put in place for anyone who won all three races, that bonus lasted until 2005 with no one grabbing the brass ring. From 2007 to 2009, the series returned to its original alignment. The most recent incarnation of the series started last year with two out of three of the races being held at Saratoga the Acorn, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Alabama.
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<br />The changes made to the series combined with the lack of incentives to run the table has hurt the series. The Triple Tiara starts on the Belmont Stakes day or after it depending on the version you are looking at, not exactly a way that the casual betting public will latch on to the event. On <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Triple_Tiara_of_Thoroughbred_Racing">Wikipedia</a> in the Triple Tiara article there is mention of a national racing series for three years old fillies:
<br /><blockquote>“In recent years, many owners and trainers of fillies have submitted proposals to the National Thoroughbred Racing Association to change the three races that compose the Triple Tiara. Although a great deal of prestige is attached to winning one or more of the current Triple Tiara races, all three are held at the same track at Belmont Park in the New York City area, because of this, the series is skewed to fillies that race in the northeast. Some from outside the area even modify the name of the series by calling it the "New York Triple Tiara."
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<br />Several options of races have been suggested to compose the "National Triple Tiara." The most popular proposal of races to compose a "Triple Tiara" series are The Kentucky Oaks, run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky; The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, run at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland; and The Acorn Stakes, run at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. A second proposal has been to use the Kentucky Oaks, the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Mother Goose Stakes. This version would allow more time for fillies to recuperate between races. Using the Mother Goose would also allow the NYRA to keep its three races in place as its own series without interfering with the three National races.
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<br />These races in the most popular proposal are near equal distance to their Triple Crown counterparts except for the Acorn, which is at a distance of one mile as opposed to the Belmont's mile-and-a-half distance. This series is thought to be a better choice for the Triple Tiara series, seeing that the three races are considered the most popular races for fillies. Each race receives considerable national network coverage, as it is run within 24 hours of the marquee event at each track.”</blockquote>The idea I have for changing the series would fall under the same type of guise with the Kentucky Oaks leading off and the Mother Goose in the mix. Where I vary is including the Coaching Club American Oaks in the series. Having the Black Eyed Susan would be too close to the Oaks and if the Oaks winner does not win the race in Pimlico, they will likely skip the Acorn or Belmont in preparation for the Saratoga meet. The same could be said for the winner of the Black Eyed Susan going forward. My version of the Series would be the Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks with some monetary bonus to any filly that can sweep the series. A bonus to a points leader if at the end of the three races like they used to have with the Chrysler Triple Crown Bonus would be awarded as well. The races would be roughly a month apart and would have a race on Derby weekend and one at Saratoga, plenty of spacing between starts and top notch venues throughout the series; the best of both worlds.
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<br />The colts and geldings have the traditional three races in five weeks that captures the attention of the racing and sports public, the fillies should have something like this to showcase the best of their generation. Changing the Triple Crown would be near sacrilege at this point and the money in breeding and seven figure purses are more than enticing to the connections of the three years old colts and geldings participating. The good thing about starting up a three year old filly series now is a clean slate on which you can create a set of races that will have large competitive fields with no excuse outside of injury for all capable fillies to run in.
<br /><blockquote></blockquote>Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-89864217914956735992011-08-11T19:30:00.003-04:002011-08-11T19:30:01.647-04:00No surprise hereSanta Anita is getting the 2012 Breeders’ Cup, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/2011/08/11/2011-08-11_repole_rips_breeders_on_ny_snub.html">Mike Repole</a> and <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/breeders-cup-decision-slap-face-belmont">Steven Crist</a> are upset about this. As Crist points out, this will be the third time in five years that southern California track has hosted the event. What he failed to pointed out is the ten year gap that Santa Anita did not host the event from 1993 to 2003 and in a ten year span from 1995 to 2005 Belmont Park played host three times. What comes around goes around.
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<br />It seems as though Breeders’ Cup officials have been leery of having the two-day race card at an East Coast racetrack since the weekend deluge that befell Monmouth Park in 2007 and the tragic breakdown of George Washington that occurred in the Classic. Weather on the Atlantic side of the country in the fall has been hit or miss at it’s best, it is chilly and dry or chilly and raining. The West Coast is attractive to the owners because of the warm weather and lack of rain in the area during that time of the year. It is the same reason that owners will probably continue to choose sending horse down to Gulfstream over Aqueduct even after the purses are increased with the slot machines opening soon. Kentucky is the other default choice because the breeders can show off their breeding stock around the same time there is an auction at Keeneland.
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<br /><a href="http://www.drf.com/news/nyra-lays-out-years-remaining-stakes">The New York Racing Association released its fall and winter stakes schedule on Wednesday.</a> The most noticeable of the changes to the schedule is the Nashua and Tempted stakes being moved to Belmont in early October. The pair of juvenile stakes races are now at the sprint distance of six furlongs so it can be used as prep races for the newly created Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. Once again NYRA has to bend its schedule to the will of the Breeders’ Cup, last year the Kelso Stakes was moved to the dirt at the mile distance as a prep race for the Dirt Mile. This took away from the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which Tizway competed in the year before and probably would have entered in again along with Regal Ransom and Mythical Power. Instead of a six horse Jockey Club Gold Cup, it would have been a nine-horse field at the minimum.
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<br />The New York Racing Association used to have one of, if not the best stakes schedule out of all the North American racetrack circuits. The Breeders’ Cup has taken away from NYRA and other racetracks in the name of the prep for the big payday. Not only that, but they also have specialized every division by bumping the event to two days and 15 races, when it used to be seven races in one day. The Breeders’ Cup has become an unwieldy beast that feasts off of other racetracks for their product.
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<br />Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-16994318806507858562011-08-05T21:15:00.003-04:002011-08-05T22:45:39.016-04:00Grade 1 double dipThe Test and Whitney Stakes are the featured attractions as races nine and ten on the Saturday card. Both have a solid group of runners entered to run and very little in the way of toss out runners. In other words, these are two really good betting races.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Test Stakes</span><br /><br />The early pace of the Prioress Stakes back on July 4th was white hot and set up for the likes of Pomeroys Pistol and Her Smile to finish 1-2. Without the likes of Alienation and Quantum Miss entered in here, it could give Roman Treasure the chance to get away to a comfortable early lead.<br /><br />It goes without saying that the Acorn has developed into a key race, the winner went on to capture the Coaching Club American Oaks and Her Smile won the Prioress off of this race. California invader Turbulent Descent was a sixty five cents on the dollar favorite in this race and will undoubtedly take a lot of money here too. Leaving her out of the various multiple race wagers would be a mistake.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win, Place 3<br />Exacta Box 3/6-7-8<br />Daily Double (linking races 9 and 10) 3-6/3-4-6-10-11<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Whitney Invitational Handicap</span><br /><br />The older male division reflects the three year old division, that is to say it is a wide open mess with everyone staking a claim that their steed is the best of the generation. That is why there are 11 runners assembled for the 84th running of this prestigious race won by greats such as Alydar, Personal Ensign, and Easy Goer.<br /><br />The Stephen Foster already produced one winner in a graded stakes race in NY when Flat Out decimated a field of six in the Suburban. Giant Oak, Mission Impazible, Apart, and Duke of Mischief all exit this race. Mission Impazible was hung wide out of post 11 and up on the early pace throughout only lose by a neck to a longshot. Mission Impazible's best races are the 9 furlong distance, his recent works look good, the connections are hot, and he has tactical speed to sit off the early pace to make a run.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win, Place 6<br />Exacta Box 6/3-4-10-11Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-8059804506957104672011-07-31T21:20:00.003-04:002011-07-31T21:39:43.616-04:00Like fine wineRace 8 on the Monday card is the Amsterdam Stakes. To Honor and Serve is making his comeback after a pair of dull efforts down in Florida before getting derailed from the Derby trail. If he performs decently he is on his way to the Travers, time has not run out on trying claim the three year old championship title. After said dull efforts down at Gulfstream, it hard to play him coming back at the demanding 6 1/2 furlong distance that this race is scheduled to go.<br /><br />After two good efforts at Saratoga Wine Police was on the shelf from early September to late June. He made his return a winning one over entry level allowance foes at this distance. With only three starts to his name, he has every right to improve.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win, Place 3Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-32691212322801734012011-07-30T20:00:00.003-04:002011-07-30T20:00:01.498-04:00Sue MeLast week the Coaching Club American Oaks was the featured stakes race, a transplanted race from the Spring/Summer meet of Belmont. This week the featured transplant race is the Ruffian Invitational Handicap. The former spot for this prestigious race was part of the fall championship meet at Belmont and it replaced the Go For Wand, another race named after an ill fated filly. This race is the ninth race on the card and has a spread open field. It looks like a good spot for a price play.<br /><br />Tiz Miz Sue ran against the extremely talented Havre De Grace last out down in Deleware only getting two pounds from the big filly. She ran admirably in defeat coming from last in a short field to fall only 2-1/4 lengths short, in the Ruffian she will be carrying only 115 pounds before the program changes. Getting a six pound relief from that last effort make the difference in this competitive field.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win, Place 7Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-74795835066750883992011-07-29T21:30:00.001-04:002011-07-29T21:30:01.161-04:00RetryWill's Wildcat was scratched out of the Curlin stakes for a chance at the $500,000 purse of the Jim Dandy, which will go off as race ten of an eleven race card that has two other stakes races carded. This card is loaded with ripe betting opportunities. The Jim Dandy has the second and third place finishers from the Belmont Stakes, the Dwyer winner, and the Peter Pan victor. On the surface this race looks like a tough spot for any outsider; but considering the disarray that the three year old colt division is in, it is a good idea to shop around for a price.<br /><br />Will's Wildcat has run consistently well on dirt and his turf form only serves to darken that form. His final time on April 30th was 13 lengths faster than par for the distance and his latest performance was fast early and fast late. Scotus seems to be steadily improving and has every right to move forward here. Moonshine Mullin tries dirt for the first time and has posted five works since his June 12th win including a bullet on July 23rd.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win, Place 5<br />Exacta Box 1,4,5Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-25607604891888922502011-07-28T20:00:00.000-04:002011-07-28T20:00:01.679-04:00Sunset ActionThe Friday card is one of two sunset racing cards scheduled for the meet. There should be more scheduled throughout the year because of a consistent trend of higher attendance and handle, but that is neither here or there. The seventh race is the Curlin Stakes, for three year olds which have not won a graded sweepstakes over a mile. In recent years this restricted race has produced a Travers runner or two, so this race is worth following for that fact alone. <br /><br />The name horse entered here is Prime Cut, who ran in the Belmont, Peter Pan, and Lexington Stakes. This horse is almost always there and with a record of six out of eight in the money finishes for his career and he has every right to win here. Racing against the speed bias on Belmont Stakes day worked against him as well.<br /><br />With that being said, Will's Wildcat is worth a look here. He is coming off of two decent performances; he had a wide post, was on the pace, and stayed on until the finish. If he can continue this string of sharp performances he could make some noise here. Turbo Compressor is worth using in the exotics as well after finishing third against Pants On Fire in the Pegasus last out.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win, Place 6<br />Exacta Box 6/2,4Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-85599842863026328882011-07-27T20:00:00.004-04:002011-07-28T20:56:32.794-04:00When in doubt, go for the shipperZero for four with one scratch so far in picking the feature from the spa, something has got to give here. For the second straight day the stakes race is not the penultimate race on the card, it is the seventh race and it kicks off the pick four. The first leg of the pick four usually is a maiden race, the stakes race kicking off a pick four is a rare occurrence.<br /><br />Fudgesicle is the Delaware Park invader entered in the Quick Call stakes. In his last four races he has been in front at the first call, the trainer is 61% in the money when saddling a horse for a non graded stakes, and Fudgesicle has finished in the money in all five of his career starts. Considering the fact that the NY based runners entered here have not run all that great on the pace and speed figures, it is worth a shot to take look elsewhere.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win, Place 10Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6037940159956945489.post-68540607318643256072011-07-26T23:00:00.004-04:002011-07-26T23:13:41.514-04:00Pletcher parade marches onRace eight is the featured Grade 2 Lake George scheduled for turf and Winter Memories is probably going off the short favorite. Unlike Overdriven on Sunday, this horse can be beat. Celestial Kitten was placed in the Sands Point against Winter Memories and came back to lose as a lukewarm favorite in a listed stakes at the beginning of July. The closing figure on Winter Memories last race came back a length slower than the average for the distance as well.<br /><br />Pletcher has a live one in here (no surprise there), More Than Real defeated the aforementioned favorite back in November and the connections swung for the fences at the prestigious Ascot meet to no avail. The trainer tries a more conventional spot and she posted a win over the course last year. She may provide some value as a second choice if the chalk players go wild on Winter Memories here.<br /><br />Wagering Strategy:<br />Win 6Joseph Burnshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13019097499871087313noreply@blogger.com0