Power Cap

2011 Year in Review

2011-12-29T20:00:00.001-05:00

A lot of the events that happened last year could be copied and pasted with minor alterations and no one would notice the difference. A filly is the likely horse of the year (Rachel Alexandra 2009 and Zenyatta 2010), the three-year-old colts performed the one and done symphony in the Triple Crown, and there is a lack of depth in the older males division.

Havre de Grace’s rise to the top was not a cakewalk by any stretch of the imagination. She had to face her nemesis Blind Luck twice and her last start against her foe was a gut wrenching nose defeat going 1 ¼ miles. She rebounded with an authoritative score against males in the Woodward and aired against her own gender in the Beldame. Those two late season scores came against the likes of Flat Out and Royal Delta, not bad company. The season ended sourly for her with a defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, not detracting from her record of five wins from seven starts and three grade one victories. Unfortunately she has come along after two years that featured the brilliance of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, and Goldikova. If her record was separated from this group of years and placed in a different generation, she would be held in much higher regard.

The three-year-old colts played hot potato with division leader status all year and that is why we are in this predicament. After Uncle Mo, the default leader defected from the Derby there was much changing of the guard. Animal Kingdom was crowned leader only to beget by Shackleford who then was thrashed by Ruler On Ice only to be squashed by Coil who was uprooted by Stay Thirsty. Outside of the traditional classics there was some consistency with Caleb’s Posse and To Honor and Serve. Caleb’s Posse won four graded stakes ranging from six and half furlongs to one mile and a sixteenth with two of those victories being in grade one company. Outside of the Classic flop To Honor and Serve did little wrong from August to November with three wins, one being against the brass of the division in the Pennsylvania Derby and the other against his seniors in the Cigar Mile. He will be set up for a big run in 2012 with a likely start in the Met Mile.

As for the case against making Caleb’s Posse best of his division, it is hard to understand why he wouldn’t be considered for the honors. The horses that competed in the classic races of the spring were not that good or fast; Animal Kingdom may be a one-time wonder, Shackleford looked weak outside of one freak performance in mid May, and Ruler On Ice ran the race of his life in the Belmont. Caleb’s Posse at least posed some sort of consistent form throughout the season and should be awarded for it even though he took an unconventional route in doing so.

Gio Ponti was made champion older colt after a strong season on turf in 2009, Cape Blanco may do the same thing this year after an uninspiring year for the older dirt runners. Tizway was considered the beast of the east before hitting the sidelines, but with only two grade one victories and an extremely spaced out schedule from April to August it has put his chances of winning the title on the rocks. Flat Out tried usurping the title from Tizway with wins in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Suburban, but was exposed with three loses at Churchill and two losses at Saratoga. Game On Dude was very game in his performances, but a two for seven winning record in stakes company is tough to put a title on.

A year that started out with a murky picture for the keynote divisions did not improve and in some cases got even darker. This was a strange year for certain. There is no despair here though. With a New Year upon us new things come to fruition like a renewal of the reliable Derby failure five, featuring this year’s Juvenile hero Hansen! Likely there will be other twists and turns along the way too. Remember that Stormy’s Majesty is always lurking in the weeds.

Uncle Mo vs. 1 1/4 miles and fourteen other races

2011-11-03T21:15:00.005-04:00

With six Breeders' Cup races on Friday and nine on Saturday, it is almost certain financial doom to play every race. With this being said, we here at Powercap introduce the almost infallible five star rating system to evaluate the races on hand.

The Friday Slate

*****
The Distaff (Race 10)

Last year it was a rematch of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, this year It's Tricky and Plum Pretty square off for the fourth time this year. Elsewhere in the field is Ask the Moon, her connections made an interesting decision of running at Santa Anita in her latest to no avail after two good efforts at the Spa. If she can rebound from her last race, she will be a tough customer here.

****
The Filly & Mare Turf (Race 9)

This is the race where the American based turf runners have the best chance of winning against the Europeans on their familiar surface. Stacelita is listed as the 2/1 favorite and has the edge of winning at 1 3/8 miles around the tight turns. Her last race was over a turf that was dead slow, my figures have it at -19 slow.

***
The Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 7)

Turbulent Descent looks to sew up a title here and she looks like a vulnerable favorite. The Puype filly has been off since early August and the early pace of that race was average at best before Descent blew by competition like Roman Treasure late.

An interesting horse in this spot is Great Hot who had two starts in October and a start against her elders in the Lady's Secret. Her sprint starts are decent from the looks of it going three for three in her attempts.

The Juvenile Sprint (Race 5)

Yet another juvenile cash grab has been added to the schedule. Trinniberg has come up short twice against stakes competition. Secret Circle ran big in his debut race. Toss Vexor's Hopeful performance and he doesn't miss the board in his short career. Seeker had a big race two back on Hopeful day. It should be a good first installment for this race.

**
The Juvenile Fillies (Race 8)

My Miss Aurelia looks to avoid the career trajectory that AZ Warrior took after her win in last year's Frizette.

*
The Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 6)

On the course of any card there is a race or two that handicappers don't like playing and the combined phrase of juvenile fillies on the turf is my kryptonite.

The Saturday Slate

*****
The Classic (Race 11)

The five million dollar question here is Uncle Mo's ability to stay the mile and a quarter. The last time a three year old favorite tried stretching out from one mile to a mile and a quarter was Fusaichi Pegasus. It didn't work in 2000, I have my doubts it will work now. Keep in mind that Fusaichi Pegasus was trying this after winning the Derby. The longest distance that Mo has won at was a mile and a sixteenth.

Ruler On Ice looks interesting here, he gets a ten pound weight shift from To Honor and Serve and has won at a mile and half. Stay Thirsty also gets another look here as the unheralded Repole entry here, he ran in every step of the Belmont and won the midsummer classic. To Honor and Serve comes in hot here and the only setback is he is picking up eight pounds off of his previous start.

****
The Sprint (Race 5)

I guess that Zito is one of the twelve readers of this blog.

The Mile (Race 10)

Apparently Goldikova is on the decline, if I owned a horse that was on this type downward spiral I would be overjoyed. Win or lose, this mare's spot as one of the all time Breeders' Cup performers is secure. It will be quite a while until another one like her comes around.

***
The Dirt Mile (Race 7)

In a rare occurrence the Preakness winner is in a race that is not the Classic. In his defeats since the Preakness the margin has been 7 3/4, a neck, 22 1/2, and 4 3/4. He is probably a good bet against here.

Tapizar came back with a victory after missing the Triple Crown series, he is probably a bit short for this spot. He does look like one to watch out for in the 2012 season though.

Trappe Shot is in this race after seemingly being aimed at the Sprint all season long, his running style better meant for the mile distance though. Not a lot was lost in transition to this race.

The Juvenile Turf (Race 4)

If it weren't for the Pilgrim returnees entered here this race would be a one star affair. Shkspeare Shaliyah and Fantastic Song ran a closing number over the dead boggy turf that was 14 and 17 lengths faster than average. Not bad for a turf runner and that is exceptional for juveniles.

**
The Juvenile (Race 9)

Union Rags could wrap up the Juvenile title and Derby favoritism with a win here. It seems like anytime there is a two year colt that wins two or three big races in NY they are immediately shot to the front of every public handicapper's Derby list. They usually fall short of the Derby expectations. It happened to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve last year, Nobiz Like Shobiz years ago, and Doneraile Court around a decade ago. The last time a hyped NY juvenile won a triple crown race was 2004 when Birdstone upset the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones.

The Turf (Race 8)

The European invaders will all be bet here and Steven Crist is a big fan of the American turf runners entered. Of course the overseas counterparts have a great edge, they carry weight in the big races and all of their marquee events are on the lawn.

*
The Marathon (Race 3)
The Turf Sprint (Race 6)

These two categories are also my handicapping kryptonite.

Finally Contessa Gets It Right

2011-10-22T02:22:00.002-04:00

This race is the play of the day. Preachintothedevil finally cuts back to a dirt sprint. His biggest career win was in a dirt sprint. His highest career beyer fig was in a dirt sprint. His dam was the famous Grade I winning dirt sprinter Acey Deucey. So what does Contessa do with this crack sprinter? He runs him in grass routes, dirt routes, poly routes , turf sprints- with the way this guy has been handled I am surprised Contessa-San didn't enter him in a steeplechase. Finally he is entered in the right kind of race and he should give a true account of his skills today.

W #8 Preachintothedevil

ps. This is my first post after an extended hiatus from the game.

They start with an advantage

2011-10-20T19:00:00.000-04:00

It’s the end of October and that means two things. The first is that all of the important grade one races are over until the fourth of November and it is now time for the state breeding programs to shine. This upcoming Saturday is New York Showcase day and next week California bred runners take the spotlight. Last week Delaware and Thistledown showed off the best of their breeding programs from their states.

The fact of the matter is that while a lot of the state bred races from any track is usually impossible to scope at times, they serve a purpose of bringing in handle and filling the daily racing cards. Without the NY bred maiden special weight or first level allowance races that usually populate the weekday cards, NYRA would likely have to cutback racing dates due to the lack of races being filled. Not to go as far as using the term “necessary evil”, but these races usually serve a purpose on a daily basis.

In the instance of the showcase day cards, they usually are loaded cards with some decent fields. Not to mention the occasional horse on the rise that pop up once in a while. Funny Cide won the 2002 Sleepy Hollow and Haynesfield won the 2009 Empire Classic, the year after their victories were multiple graded stakes winners.

The state bred showcase days serve as a useful part of the racing landscape at this time of the year when the all stars of the sport converge on location, leaving the feeder tracks with little pull in the way of attention towards their racing product. The restricted state bred stakes races fill what would be a dead card with some interesting match-ups and provide some cover to what otherwise would be referred to as a barren part of the racing calendar.

Get to know a BC prospect: The Southern California Roundup

2011-10-17T17:00:00.000-04:00

Admittedly this site does not cover a lot of the news or horses that run on the opposite coast. It must be the three-hour time difference, general malaise towards the product offered at the three principal tracks, the two synthetic surfaces that are in place, the high takeout rates, or some combination of the four. Whatever the case may be, they do produce some decent runners for the big day much like the other major circuits do. A scouting report on the some of the big players coming to Louisville is in order.

Game On Dude

He is listed at 15/1 in the recent Breeders’ Cup write up for the Daily Racing Form. Seems a bit high even for a rough sketch on the contenders they list. Awesome Gem is the longest shot listed immediately after the Dude at 20/1. This one has been the hard trying type all year long and seems to favor dirt surfaces with two major wins over the Santa Anita surface. His early speed always puts him in contention and he could hang around for the finish if unattended and treated as cheap speed.

The Factor

It’s been an up and down year for this highly touted Baffert runner, after winning two straight grade two races he was defeated in the Arkansas Derby and laid up until the Pat O’Brien stakes where he defeated Smiling Tiger with weight concessions. The Ancient Title was a flat effort where he finished off the board causing high rolling show bettors to look for tall buildings and bridges. He is a Jekyll and Hyde horse if there ever was one, which one will show up on the first Saturday of November is anyone’s guess. Buyers beware.

Dubawi Heights

If Stacelita is at the top of the older filly grass ranks for the U.S. then this one is not far behind. They were one-two in their only meeting on a neutral site at Arlington Park and those two went on to win their next starts in easy fashion. The 11 furlongs of the distaff turf race will be a question mark for this one though as it will be her first trip going three turns and an eighth of a mile longer than she has ever gone in her career. Her rival Stacelita has already done the trip against colts in the United Nations back in July with a respectable third to show for it.

Get to know a BC prospect: Jackson Bend

2011-10-05T23:00:00.005-04:00

Likely race he will be entered in: Dirt Mile

Reports about the demise of his racing career have been greatly exaggerated. After brawling with the apex of his class throughout his three-year-old season and showing four in the money finishes out of eight starts with no wins it looked like he was burnt out. After a November to March freshening he had four starts down in Florida with the same results as his 2010 season. Then there was a sudden revival when he hit the track at Saratoga, two straight wins in convincing fashion.

Something broke him out of the malaise of his 0-12 skid that lasted from 2010 to 2011. Was it the fresh country air of Saratoga, the beautiful women who attend the races up there, the mineral rich spring water, or maybe a combination of any of these factors? No, it was the fact that he got back to what brought him to the dance. Sprint races got him noticed as a juvenile down at Calder and eventually led to the high profile acquisition by Robert LaPenta. In his most recent at Belmont, he had Uncle Mo by the collar at the top of the stretch before the big horse turned on the afterburners. The thought process now among the connections is that if he can run 7/8 of mile, he can run the flat mile, heck he almost circled a talented colt at the mile distance.

The Breeders Cup Sprint is a better option. The pace is usually hot enough for a closer like Jackson Bend to make a sustained bid and as mediocre as the middle distance dirt runners, the sprint division is doing its part in keeping pace in this category. The cutback from a mile to six furlongs is not without foundation either, Silver Train pulled off the feat back in 2005 by running in the mile Jerome Stakes and winning the Sprint later on. Some closers at the 7/8 distance look like they can get the extra 660 feet because of the explosive kick they have shown at the shorter distance. A good percentage of the time that is due to the pace at seven furlongs being hot and the horse getting on a roll at the right moment. The mile can be trickier; sometimes the pace does not develop and this leaves the closers behind the eight ball.

Jackson Bend is a better fit for the sprint based on the fact he has shown very little in the way of winning past the sprint distances. If he does go in the mile he will be an overbet option in a large field, not the type of preposition any gambler should make. If he goes in the Sprint he will one of a plethora of viable options to take down the jackpot and you may get a price on him. If Zito is a reader of this site then here is a bit of free advice, RUN JACKSON BEND IN THE SPRINT.

He has Mo-mentum

2011-10-01T23:48:00.011-04:00

Super Saturday was a formful day where the betting favorite took down four out of the six stakes races. Speed seemed best on the muddy dirt surface where most of the winners were either close to or on the the lead in the early stages.

Stacelita continued her superiority over her own gender on the turf. She will likely be a very well bet favorite for the Filly and Mare Turf off of this effort. How good is this filly? Dubawi Heights, the filly who ran second to Stacelita in the Beverly D. won the Yellow Ribbon a couple of hours later.

Cape Blanco has been racking up the frequent flier miles lately and Dean's Kitten almost took advantage of this. Dean's Kitten ran as a good a race as any of the other winners from today's card. The cross continental trips may be taking a toll Cape Blanco and if he goes in the BC Turf he could be a good play against.

Giant Ryan got to the front during the early stages and did not look back. As the old advertisement for the NY breds goes, "They start with an advantage.".

Uncle Mo loves Belmont and rolls into the Breeders' Cup with this zippy win. The connections of Uncle Mo are toying with the idea of going to the Classic if he did well in this race. It seems like a bad idea, Fusaichi Pegasus tried to the mile stretch out to the classic with no success and Mo seems to thrive at the one turn mile. He could be the first horse to win two different BC races either way, might as well try it in a spot he does well in.

Jackson Bend made a nice run at the winner at the top of the stretch, he has matured into a decent long sprinter. The spot I would run him in off of this race is the BC Sprint, the Dirt Mile may be an 1/8 beyond his best distance and he has not attempted the six furlong distance in quite a while. It may be worth a shot to run in the Sprint.

Havre de Grace won the Beldame with ease and she looked the part of a champion every step of the way through this race. With Blind Luck's loss in the Lady's Secret, her arch rival Havre de Grace edges that much closer to her hopes at Horse of the Year honors.

Flat Out made it two for two over the Belmont dirt with his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Stay Thirsty made a run at the winner, but it was too late. Drosselmeyer ran a nice effort to grab the place spot by making up ground in the last eighth of a mile, this effort could set him up well for the BC Marathon.

Get to know a BC prospect: To Honor and Serve

2011-09-27T20:30:00.000-04:00

The Breeders’ Cup is a double-edged sword, what it offers in deep fields with an inordinate amount of quality horse flesh also takes away from other tracks due to trainers meticulously planning their schedules around having their horses ready for the big day. That being said it does help to scout and assess the top prospects leading up to the two days. Much like what we did for the lead up to the Kentucky Derby, we will do a series on these runners in their march towards November. Time to better get to know a Breeder’s Cup prospect.

Likely race he will be entered in: Classic

What’s old is new, back in the spring this Mott runner was not up to the rigors of the Triple Crown series and much like fellow juvenile superstar Uncle Mo he missed the big dance completely. Whatever problems he had are behind him after two straight authoritative wins at two turns going nine furlongs. Stamina for the mile and a quarter journey that he will likely embark on should not be a problem with Bernardini as the sire and the dam's sire being Deputy Minister.

With three races from the span of August 1st to September 24th and two wins to show from it, one being a win in the Pennsylvania Derby it is hard not say he is in top physical shape right now. The Classic has had its share of three-year-old colts take down the big prize. Curlin, Tiznow, and Concern come to mind; what is a recurring trait among them is that they put in strong efforts in their races leading up to the big day.

In To Honor and Serve’s Saratoga romp, his early pace figures against the adjusted average calls were twelve and eleven lengths faster than par and his speed figure was eight lengths faster when he was clear and coasting home. His biggest advantage may not be on pace and speed figures either, he was sidelined during the big three races in the spring. Now he is back as a fresh runner while the rest of his class has been butting heads for the past couple of months. If he remains sound and sharp he will be a dangerous runner on the big day of racing.

Grace Under Pressure

2011-09-03T22:00:00.000-04:00

The last Saturday at Saratoga featured three grade one races, all with varying degrees of importance now that the calender has turned to September. The highlight of the day being Havre De Grace's attempt at beating the older colts.

The Personal Ensign was rescheduled from August 27th to this Saturday due to inclement weather. It didn't make a difference to Ask The Moon, who swept the distaff races at Saratoga with a wire to wire win. With the older filly division depleted beyond the top two (Blind Luck and Havre De Grace) and the three year old females yet to take on their elders, it should be an interesting set of fall races.

Jackson Bend spent last year chasing some of the better runners of his generation with nothing to show for it other than a few tough beats. What a difference a year makes, the sprint division is anyone's for the taking and his win in the Forego puts him squarely in the lead group of contenders for champion sprinter. The last few seasons the Forego has served as a highly important race earmarked by Midnight Lute and Big Drama winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint after a start in the Forego.

Rachel Alexandra used the Woodward as the end to a perfect season and Horse of the Year honors, this year Havre De Grace is trying the same path to the eclipse awards. Tracking Rule most of the way and being asked for run during the stretch when needed she was an authoritative winner. The race in all likelihood did not take as much energy out of the victor as it did Rachel Alexandra two years ago, Rachel was on the lead the whole way and had to fight off a few late challengers in order to stay perfect for the year. Havre De Grace avoided any dirt in the face and took a wide trip sweeping by Rule with ease, there is probably enough left in the proverbial tank for one more race before the end of the year. The prospectus of the colts and geldings aiming for the classic is not an imposing bunch, so it may be worth it for Havre De Grace to take another shot at the males in the Breeders' Cup Classic. She has already showed an ability to go the distance and that is half the battle in the Classic.

Tale of the Tape, Uncle Mo vs. Stay Thirsty

2011-09-01T14:00:00.001-04:00

After this past weekend where Mike Repole’s two stars represented his stable very well, it seems like all the talk is about Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. Andy Beyer made it the subject of his Wednesday piece in the Daily Racing Form and Stay Thirsty was the cover story on the Saratoga Special on the same day. Pletcher mentioned in passing after the events of the weekend his intention of not having his two champions not being in the same race during the fall. It only seems fair to match these two up in the way boxers are sized up before a prizefight in the tale of the tape.

Major NY Stakes wins
Uncle Mo: Champagne Stakes
Stay Thirsty: Gotham, Jim Dandy, and Travers
Edge: Thirsty, he is truly NY’s horse. It should be noted due to my general laziness that I am shortening up the names to Mo and Thirsty from this point forward.

Eclipse Awards
Mo: King of the Juvenile colts
Thirsty: Zero
Edge: Mo, there is no such thing as a cheap shot in this venue.

Starts in the 2011 Triple Crown
Mo: Zero
Thirsty: Two
Edge: Thirsty, what goes around comes around.

Powercap Nickname
Mo: Mr. Softee
Thirsty: No nickname given
Edge: Mo, to jest is to care. In hindsight we should have given a nickname to every starter in the Triple Crown series this year. Live and learn.

Respective Performances on August 27th
Mo: Photo finish loss after a five-month layoff with noted medical issues
Thirsty: Won the Travers
Edge: Push, if Mo had the benefit of a race before the King’s Bishop and a bit more in the way of works before the month of July he may have won that race.

Going Forward
Mo: Pennsylvania Derby? Vosburgh? Jockey Club Gold Cup? Who knows?
Thirsty: The main goal in all likeliness in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Edge: Thirsty, a defined course is better than being adrift at sea with no direction.

Beyer Speed Figure
Mo: 106
Thirsty: 101
Edge: Mo, even in defeat he puts up a lot of heat. He probably is a better one-turn runner than a router as well.

This is getting tiresome, after seven rounds of conjecture it is all tied up at 3-3 with one push. Well, this didn’t solve anything at all. Might as well have them run against each other at some point in the near future.

End of the season shuffle

2011-08-28T19:00:00.001-04:00

Another grade one race for three year old colts and yet another winner to join the crowded club for 2011. With the Travers having the distinction of being the last grade one on the books exclusively for the sophomore class and no one creating some distance from the competition, it will be a mad scramble to the end of the year to decide the championships. In this case chaos is good. Uncle Mo did not win the King’s Bishop and if anything may be back for a shot at redemption at four years old, seeing how his three-year-old season has turned into a wash. Shackleford was less than a length away from clinching the division title back on July 31st and now is back in a tie with the rest of the division. Stay Thristy is the resurgent force of the division with two recent wins and was a close second in the Belmont. With the magic number set at two grade one wins, the whole lot is stuck at one.

The parity trend is not isolated to the three-year-old males, the filly counterparts went from a division that was It’s Tricky’s to capture back into a group that any able bodied filly can win if they get on a hot streak. Turbulent Descent probably benefits the most from last week’s upheaval, as she is a multiple graded stakes winner this year. She may only need the rest of the division to trade off victories or loses to the older fillies in the fall stakes races and a Breeders’ Cup win in order to clinch. It’s Tricky remains closer to the honors than the rest of the fillies and a win against older fillies would likely grab the title.

Tizway is the default leader of the older males with wins in the Met Mile and Whitney, one more grade one and he gets the trophy with little resistance. The rest of the elder colts and geldings in that group are a jumbled mess and wins by a combination of any of them probably won’t do much to uproot the current leader.

The horse of the year championship is a four-way race at this point. Cape Blanco has two major victories stateside and a third one could get him the nod. Tizway will probably need one or two more major victories. Then there is the predicament of Havre De Grace and Blind Luck.

These two fillies have faced off against each other throughout various points in the past two years and have traded decisions with a narrow margin of victory almost every time. Havre De Grace is on target for the Woodward this upcoming Saturday at Saratoga and Havre De Grace has two races left on the schedule for the remainder of the season. If Havre De Grace wins against the males and it is a taxing effort like the one Rachel Alexandra put forth in her conquest of this race the important question is do you put her away for the year or squeeze one more race out of her for the year? Blink Luck could run the table and easily take the Horse of the Year honors away for Havre De Grace.

It is unprecedented that a filly or mare has won the Horse of the Year honors for three straight seasons and it may happen this year with the way the division races have shaped up. While horses trading decisions for the past eight months is not the most thrilling of things to follow throughout the year, it does provide for an interesting finish to a season filled with parity.

A photo finish is worth three words

2011-08-27T20:30:00.001-04:00

Where’s the media circus?

2011-08-18T21:00:00.002-04:00

It’s Tricky is in a position to sweep a prestigious series of three races that has been a staple of North American racing for the past 54 years, the Triple Tiara. A horse has not swept the three race series since its “classic” configuration back in 1993 when Sky Beauty won the Acorn, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks. The list of fillies that have done this feat reads as a veritable all-star team of hall of fame inductees Dark Mirage, Shuvee, Chris Evert, Ruffian, Dovona Dale, Mom’s Command, Open Mind, and Sky Beauty. The question worth asking is why isn’t It’s Tricky getting more mainstream coverage? Any time a male counterpart captures the Derby and Preakness, there is a media circus surrounding the final leg of the Triple Crown.

The short answer to the question above is it’s tricky. The long answer is that in the past eight years they have had three different configurations to the series. 2002 played out the string of 45 years of consistent scheduling for the classic series. In 2003 the Alabama was placed in the set displacing the Acorn and a bonus of two million dollars was put in place for anyone who won all three races, that bonus lasted until 2005 with no one grabbing the brass ring. From 2007 to 2009, the series returned to its original alignment. The most recent incarnation of the series started last year with two out of three of the races being held at Saratoga the Acorn, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Alabama.

The changes made to the series combined with the lack of incentives to run the table has hurt the series. The Triple Tiara starts on the Belmont Stakes day or after it depending on the version you are looking at, not exactly a way that the casual betting public will latch on to the event. On Wikipedia in the Triple Tiara article there is mention of a national racing series for three years old fillies:

“In recent years, many owners and trainers of fillies have submitted proposals to the National Thoroughbred Racing Association to change the three races that compose the Triple Tiara. Although a great deal of prestige is attached to winning one or more of the current Triple Tiara races, all three are held at the same track at Belmont Park in the New York City area, because of this, the series is skewed to fillies that race in the northeast. Some from outside the area even modify the name of the series by calling it the "New York Triple Tiara."

Several options of races have been suggested to compose the "National Triple Tiara." The most popular proposal of races to compose a "Triple Tiara" series are The Kentucky Oaks, run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky; The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, run at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland; and The Acorn Stakes, run at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. A second proposal has been to use the Kentucky Oaks, the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Mother Goose Stakes. This version would allow more time for fillies to recuperate between races. Using the Mother Goose would also allow the NYRA to keep its three races in place as its own series without interfering with the three National races.

These races in the most popular proposal are near equal distance to their Triple Crown counterparts except for the Acorn, which is at a distance of one mile as opposed to the Belmont's mile-and-a-half distance. This series is thought to be a better choice for the Triple Tiara series, seeing that the three races are considered the most popular races for fillies. Each race receives considerable national network coverage, as it is run within 24 hours of the marquee event at each track.”

The idea I have for changing the series would fall under the same type of guise with the Kentucky Oaks leading off and the Mother Goose in the mix. Where I vary is including the Coaching Club American Oaks in the series. Having the Black Eyed Susan would be too close to the Oaks and if the Oaks winner does not win the race in Pimlico, they will likely skip the Acorn or Belmont in preparation for the Saratoga meet. The same could be said for the winner of the Black Eyed Susan going forward. My version of the Series would be the Kentucky Oaks, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks with some monetary bonus to any filly that can sweep the series. A bonus to a points leader if at the end of the three races like they used to have with the Chrysler Triple Crown Bonus would be awarded as well. The races would be roughly a month apart and would have a race on Derby weekend and one at Saratoga, plenty of spacing between starts and top notch venues throughout the series; the best of both worlds.

The colts and geldings have the traditional three races in five weeks that captures the attention of the racing and sports public, the fillies should have something like this to showcase the best of their generation. Changing the Triple Crown would be near sacrilege at this point and the money in breeding and seven figure purses are more than enticing to the connections of the three years old colts and geldings participating. The good thing about starting up a three year old filly series now is a clean slate on which you can create a set of races that will have large competitive fields with no excuse outside of injury for all capable fillies to run in.

No surprise here

2011-08-11T19:30:00.003-04:00

Santa Anita is getting the 2012 Breeders’ Cup, Mike Repole and Steven Crist are upset about this. As Crist points out, this will be the third time in five years that southern California track has hosted the event. What he failed to pointed out is the ten year gap that Santa Anita did not host the event from 1993 to 2003 and in a ten year span from 1995 to 2005 Belmont Park played host three times. What comes around goes around.

It seems as though Breeders’ Cup officials have been leery of having the two-day race card at an East Coast racetrack since the weekend deluge that befell Monmouth Park in 2007 and the tragic breakdown of George Washington that occurred in the Classic. Weather on the Atlantic side of the country in the fall has been hit or miss at it’s best, it is chilly and dry or chilly and raining. The West Coast is attractive to the owners because of the warm weather and lack of rain in the area during that time of the year. It is the same reason that owners will probably continue to choose sending horse down to Gulfstream over Aqueduct even after the purses are increased with the slot machines opening soon. Kentucky is the other default choice because the breeders can show off their breeding stock around the same time there is an auction at Keeneland.

The New York Racing Association released its fall and winter stakes schedule on Wednesday. The most noticeable of the changes to the schedule is the Nashua and Tempted stakes being moved to Belmont in early October. The pair of juvenile stakes races are now at the sprint distance of six furlongs so it can be used as prep races for the newly created Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. Once again NYRA has to bend its schedule to the will of the Breeders’ Cup, last year the Kelso Stakes was moved to the dirt at the mile distance as a prep race for the Dirt Mile. This took away from the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which Tizway competed in the year before and probably would have entered in again along with Regal Ransom and Mythical Power. Instead of a six horse Jockey Club Gold Cup, it would have been a nine-horse field at the minimum.

The New York Racing Association used to have one of, if not the best stakes schedule out of all the North American racetrack circuits. The Breeders’ Cup has taken away from NYRA and other racetracks in the name of the prep for the big payday. Not only that, but they also have specialized every division by bumping the event to two days and 15 races, when it used to be seven races in one day. The Breeders’ Cup has become an unwieldy beast that feasts off of other racetracks for their product.

Grade 1 double dip

2011-08-05T21:15:00.003-04:00

The Test and Whitney Stakes are the featured attractions as races nine and ten on the Saturday card. Both have a solid group of runners entered to run and very little in the way of toss out runners. In other words, these are two really good betting races.

Test Stakes

The early pace of the Prioress Stakes back on July 4th was white hot and set up for the likes of Pomeroys Pistol and Her Smile to finish 1-2. Without the likes of Alienation and Quantum Miss entered in here, it could give Roman Treasure the chance to get away to a comfortable early lead.

It goes without saying that the Acorn has developed into a key race, the winner went on to capture the Coaching Club American Oaks and Her Smile won the Prioress off of this race. California invader Turbulent Descent was a sixty five cents on the dollar favorite in this race and will undoubtedly take a lot of money here too. Leaving her out of the various multiple race wagers would be a mistake.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 3
Exacta Box 3/6-7-8
Daily Double (linking races 9 and 10) 3-6/3-4-6-10-11

Whitney Invitational Handicap

The older male division reflects the three year old division, that is to say it is a wide open mess with everyone staking a claim that their steed is the best of the generation. That is why there are 11 runners assembled for the 84th running of this prestigious race won by greats such as Alydar, Personal Ensign, and Easy Goer.

The Stephen Foster already produced one winner in a graded stakes race in NY when Flat Out decimated a field of six in the Suburban. Giant Oak, Mission Impazible, Apart, and Duke of Mischief all exit this race. Mission Impazible was hung wide out of post 11 and up on the early pace throughout only lose by a neck to a longshot. Mission Impazible's best races are the 9 furlong distance, his recent works look good, the connections are hot, and he has tactical speed to sit off the early pace to make a run.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 6
Exacta Box 6/3-4-10-11

Like fine wine

2011-07-31T21:20:00.003-04:00

Race 8 on the Monday card is the Amsterdam Stakes. To Honor and Serve is making his comeback after a pair of dull efforts down in Florida before getting derailed from the Derby trail. If he performs decently he is on his way to the Travers, time has not run out on trying claim the three year old championship title. After said dull efforts down at Gulfstream, it hard to play him coming back at the demanding 6 1/2 furlong distance that this race is scheduled to go.

After two good efforts at Saratoga Wine Police was on the shelf from early September to late June. He made his return a winning one over entry level allowance foes at this distance. With only three starts to his name, he has every right to improve.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 3

Sue Me

2011-07-30T20:00:00.003-04:00

Last week the Coaching Club American Oaks was the featured stakes race, a transplanted race from the Spring/Summer meet of Belmont. This week the featured transplant race is the Ruffian Invitational Handicap. The former spot for this prestigious race was part of the fall championship meet at Belmont and it replaced the Go For Wand, another race named after an ill fated filly. This race is the ninth race on the card and has a spread open field. It looks like a good spot for a price play.

Tiz Miz Sue ran against the extremely talented Havre De Grace last out down in Deleware only getting two pounds from the big filly. She ran admirably in defeat coming from last in a short field to fall only 2-1/4 lengths short, in the Ruffian she will be carrying only 115 pounds before the program changes. Getting a six pound relief from that last effort make the difference in this competitive field.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 7

Retry

2011-07-29T21:30:00.001-04:00

Will's Wildcat was scratched out of the Curlin stakes for a chance at the $500,000 purse of the Jim Dandy, which will go off as race ten of an eleven race card that has two other stakes races carded. This card is loaded with ripe betting opportunities. The Jim Dandy has the second and third place finishers from the Belmont Stakes, the Dwyer winner, and the Peter Pan victor. On the surface this race looks like a tough spot for any outsider; but considering the disarray that the three year old colt division is in, it is a good idea to shop around for a price.

Will's Wildcat has run consistently well on dirt and his turf form only serves to darken that form. His final time on April 30th was 13 lengths faster than par for the distance and his latest performance was fast early and fast late. Scotus seems to be steadily improving and has every right to move forward here. Moonshine Mullin tries dirt for the first time and has posted five works since his June 12th win including a bullet on July 23rd.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 5
Exacta Box 1,4,5

Sunset Action

2011-07-28T20:00:00.000-04:00

The Friday card is one of two sunset racing cards scheduled for the meet. There should be more scheduled throughout the year because of a consistent trend of higher attendance and handle, but that is neither here or there. The seventh race is the Curlin Stakes, for three year olds which have not won a graded sweepstakes over a mile. In recent years this restricted race has produced a Travers runner or two, so this race is worth following for that fact alone.

The name horse entered here is Prime Cut, who ran in the Belmont, Peter Pan, and Lexington Stakes. This horse is almost always there and with a record of six out of eight in the money finishes for his career and he has every right to win here. Racing against the speed bias on Belmont Stakes day worked against him as well.

With that being said, Will's Wildcat is worth a look here. He is coming off of two decent performances; he had a wide post, was on the pace, and stayed on until the finish. If he can continue this string of sharp performances he could make some noise here. Turbo Compressor is worth using in the exotics as well after finishing third against Pants On Fire in the Pegasus last out.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 6
Exacta Box 6/2,4

When in doubt, go for the shipper

2011-07-27T20:00:00.004-04:00

Zero for four with one scratch so far in picking the feature from the spa, something has got to give here. For the second straight day the stakes race is not the penultimate race on the card, it is the seventh race and it kicks off the pick four. The first leg of the pick four usually is a maiden race, the stakes race kicking off a pick four is a rare occurrence.

Fudgesicle is the Delaware Park invader entered in the Quick Call stakes. In his last four races he has been in front at the first call, the trainer is 61% in the money when saddling a horse for a non graded stakes, and Fudgesicle has finished in the money in all five of his career starts. Considering the fact that the NY based runners entered here have not run all that great on the pace and speed figures, it is worth a shot to take look elsewhere.

Wagering Strategy:
Win, Place 10

Pletcher parade marches on

2011-07-26T23:00:00.004-04:00

Race eight is the featured Grade 2 Lake George scheduled for turf and Winter Memories is probably going off the short favorite. Unlike Overdriven on Sunday, this horse can be beat. Celestial Kitten was placed in the Sands Point against Winter Memories and came back to lose as a lukewarm favorite in a listed stakes at the beginning of July. The closing figure on Winter Memories last race came back a length slower than the average for the distance as well.

Pletcher has a live one in here (no surprise there), More Than Real defeated the aforementioned favorite back in November and the connections swung for the fences at the prestigious Ascot meet to no avail. The trainer tries a more conventional spot and she posted a win over the course last year. She may provide some value as a second choice if the chalk players go wild on Winter Memories here.

Wagering Strategy:
Win 6

He's got them right where he wants them

2011-07-24T20:00:00.002-04:00

Stormy's Majesty is one for three so far this year heading into the Evan Shipman Stakes, both of his losses coming in the deep end of the pool in the Met Mile and a listed turf stakes race. When this horse faces NY bred company he turns into a beast. Last year at Saratoga he won the Albany over Ibboyee after losing by a wide margin in the Jim Dandy, he bounces back from losses in good order. His main competition up front is Spa City Fever, who is coming off of a flashy performance in the Noble Nashua at Belmont. Get your popcorn ready, this should be a good one.

History repeating itself?

2011-07-23T22:00:00.002-04:00

The Sanford is the Sunday featured stakes race and Pletcher will probably sweep the juvenile stakes races this weekend. Overdriven ran a very fast race first out and the rest of the field has run decently, but nothing spectacular. With speed being the dominant force at Saratoga the place to search for a viable longshot for exotics and a possible upset is on the front end.

Back in the 2006 edition of the Sanford Pletcher had the big favorite Scat Daddy. Scat Daddy was put to the test by the maiden entrant Teuflesberg that day. The maiden entrant that looks interesting in this year's running is Moonrush. He has the possibility of getting out early and staying around for the latter part of the running.

Wagering strategy:
Exacta 6/2
Win, Place 2

Redeeming Value

2011-07-23T03:05:00.004-04:00

The Coaching Club American Oaks is the feature for the Saturday program and despite not drawing a large field, it is a talented group. Each entrant has won a grade two or better and the longest shot on the morning line is 6-1. Royal Delta is the likely favorite here after a convincing victory in the Black Eyed Susan. In the Black Eyed Susan she had a favorable setup with the pace setter (Hot Summer) stretching out to two turns, the probable pace setter here seems to be a tougher opponent though.

Plum Pretty had two factors going against her last out, a six pound weight shift in favor of Zazu and she was under the weather in the days leading up to the race. Also, she has shown more of an affinity for the dirt surfaces than the Hollywood synthetic surface. When she is on her A game, she is a very fast filly that is hard to catch.

Joyful Victory ran on the same day Plum Pretty did last out and also burnt money that same day. The Jones trained filly had to switch from a ground saving rail trip to a wide move at Belmont in order to get racing room and by the time she was straightened out, the race was over. In the Kentucky Oaks she had a trouble line as well, Joyful Victory showed considerable talent at Oaklawn during the winter and was sent off a 2-1 favorite in The Oaks due to this. She has been in the money in five out of her seven starts, to leave her off any exotic wager with the possibility of her being the longest shot on the board is ludicrous.

Wagering Strategy:

Win 2
Exacta Box 2,3

The heat is on

2011-07-21T20:00:00.002-04:00

It’s going to be a scorcher for the Friday opening at Saratoga, that is if they don’t cancel the card. There are two stakes races scheduled, the James Marvin Stakes (Race 8) and the grade three Schuylerville Stakes (Race 9). The James Marvin is for three and up going seven furlongs, it is quite a nice field assembled for a listed stakes race. Jackson Bend, Aikenite (Churhill Downs S. G2 winner), Here Comes Ben (Forego S. G1 winner), D’Funnybone (multiple graded stakes winner), Caixa Electronica (Westchester S. G3 winner), and Jersey Town (Cigar Mile H. G1 winner) are entered for this race. In 2009 Pyro used this race as a stepping stone towards a win in the Forego, chances are good that a few horses entered here will run next out in the Forego.

Caixa Electronica ran an incredibly fast race early and late en route to a victory two back in the Westchester. Other than that big effort, he has run lights out against allowance fields and average against stakes company. With the Pletcher-Repole Stable connections he is sure to take his fair share of action, it probably is worthwhile to shop around for a price here. Jersey Town has not been seen since his 34-1 upset in the Cigar Mile and is capable of putting up some good early speed that could separate himself from the rest of the field early. He has shown steady works since June 7th, posting six workouts since that point including a six furlong breeze five days ago and a 59 2/5 bullet for five furlongs on July 2nd. The wide post should not be a problem with the early speed he displayed late last year and he has shown that he can run well despite a wide trip.

Jackson Bend may be 0-12 in the last two years, but he has a way of sneaking into the exactas and should be used here. Aikenite has three of his five wins at 7/8 of a mile and will be around at the end. D’ Funnybone ran well two back and has had some extra time off from his last effort, which looks like a throwaway performance.

Wagering strategy:

Win, Place 11
Exacta Box 11/3,7
Exacta 3,7,9,11/2

Next Stop: Saratoga

2011-07-19T20:00:00.000-04:00

Six weeks of racing at Saratoga Springs starts this Friday after what felt like an eternity of a meet at Belmont following the Independence Day weekend blowout cards. Having a winning Saratoga meet is akin to winning a batting title in baseball or a major in golf; it is tough, it has been done before, and doing so deserves some kind of commemoration or plaque of some type. As it is every year, the juvenile races and stakes races are the feature attractions of the meet.

Juvenile Junction

The two-year-old maiden and stakes races are an integral part of the summer meet. Classy debut starters and Pletcher entries are seemingly in each event. One of Pletcher’s main charges for the meet is Overdriven, each call in his debut was faster than the last and he was 16 ½ lengths in front of the show runner Big Creek in his debut. J C’s Pride was second in that race and was in front of the Pletcher stable star for the first half mile of that race and his turn time was five lengths faster than the normal for the five furlong distance.

Over at Churchill there was a maiden race on July 2nd that was faster than average for the 4-½ furlong distance. She Digs Me and Next Right Thing battled down to the finish with She Digs Me getting the better of her inexperienced rival, they were eight lengths in front of the third place finisher. She Digs Me will likely start in one of the stakes races for the colts and Next Right Thing will likely start in a maiden race up at the Spa.

Born Bullish ran off the page in her first start, winning by nine lengths. The comments read,”…moved up willingly towards the front runners unasked for speed, drew along side MISS POSSE midway on the turn, bided her time before moving past that rival to take over under her own courage…”. The danger with betting a two-year-old filly coming off of a big win is the possible bounce that takes place from that last effort though.

The Futurity and Matron were moved from their traditional spots on the fall championship meet to early July, setting up these two races as preps for the according Saratoga stakes races. That being said, the Futurity winner Jack’s On Deck and Matron winner Millionreasonswhy may be in tougher in their next starts at Saratoga, their pace and speed figures were no better than average for the six furlong distance. Churchill juvenile stakes winners Exfactor (Bashford Manor, colts) and Flashy Lassie (Debutante, fillies) was no better on the same measures.

Tizway we go

On May 30 Tizway was the winner of the Met Mile with the scintillating final time of 1:32.9 for one mile. On further review, that race was too good to be true. The variant for that race was one; the average variant for the one turn mile at Belmont is a 21. In other words, the surface was extremely fast that day. Rodman did very little in his next start in the Suburban Handicap as the even money favorite. Tizway is supposed to make his next start in the Whitney, buyers beware.

Street Game wired the field in the Hill Prince back on June 18, defeating Virginia Derby winner Air Support by open lengths. Street Game ran an impressive closing fraction that was one of the better efforts put forth at a mile race on the outer turf course. The speed figure was eight lengths faster than average as well. Over that speed favoring turf course upstate, he could easily wire a field or two if left to his own devices.

The Dwyer Stakes will likely produce a few starters for the Jim Dandy and Haskell, the race was not all that fast though. It was six lengths slow at the half, ten lengths slow at the three-quarters mark, and eight lengths slow at the finish. The winner and runner-up will more than likely be overbet in their next start.

Life after the Triple Crown

2011-06-26T18:00:00.003-04:00

It has been two weeks since the last jewel of the elusive Triple Crown and what do you know, there is still racing going on. The three-year-old division, which has been the focal point of the first six months of the year, is still wide open. So are the less recognized divisions, which up to this point is every other division going.

Older Males, Turf

Paddy O’Prado was one of the best of the turf division last year and made a promising return with a victory in the Dixie, he was injured shortly after the finish of that race though. Gio Ponti made his stateside return on Belmont Stakes day in the Manhattan and the boggy turf, not one of his better surfaces, did him in. Since his 2009 championship season it looks like he has lost a bit of his closing kick that strung together four straight grade one victories. Winchester is yet to race this year as well; he won two important grade one races last year and could be a player if he returns to action this year.

Over on the West Coast Bourbon Bay and Champ Pegasus were in some tight heats over the course of the last few months and will probably be the standard bearers for the West Coast contingents. Acclamation recently repeated the Charlie Whittingham/Jim Murray Handicap double that he accomplished in 2010, after that point last year his form dropped off dramatically. It remains to be seen if he can hold up his form this time around.

Older Females, Turf

Late last year this division was peppered with longshot winners, Shared Account by way of her upset win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf is the division leader. It is a tenuous lead though, if any filly can go on a hot streak in the next few months they got the division clinched.

Sprinters

The colts and geldings side of this division is extremely deep, Apriority was competitive versus the top echelon of the division in his two tries and was done in by a dead rail in the Churchill Downs Handicap. Morning Line won his only sprint effort this year, the Carter and should be kept at the seven furlong or six furlong tests if the connections like the winner’s circle.

Big Drama is taking an extended break after a stakes win at Gulfstream in January and his connections are aiming for a stakes race or two at Saratoga before trying to win back to back renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Trappe Shot won the True North by open lengths, in the race before that he faced Rule By Night who ran some big races the previous year and could be a decent under the radar horse for the upcoming stakes races.

On the filly and mare side of the spectrum, it looks like Hilda’s Passion is the filly to catch. She has run consistently fast races so far this year. Unless there is a fleet three year old filly out there, it looks she will have it her own way for the rest of the year.

Distaff

Last year Havre De Grace and Blind Luck faced off four times, Blind Luck was ahead of Havre De Grace in three of those encounters with the average winning margin being a quarter of a length. This year in their only meeting Havre De Grace was three lengths clear of her rival at Oaklawn in the Azeri. Blind Luck has gotten back to her winning ways recently with victories in the La Troienne and the Vanity Handicap.

Awesome Maria is perfect in four starts this year, but the fields she has faced so far this year have been less than stellar. Her win in the Shuvee Handicap was over a surface that was faster than normal as well. She will likely be over bet when she has to face some of tougher competition.

The three-year-old section of this division is another wide-open division. Three returnees from the Kentucky Oaks run yesterday and one was victorious, Zazu. Plum Pretty was supposed to run in the Mother Goose and came down with a fever so instead she was entered in the Hollywood Oaks. Zazu was in the Hollywood Oaks as well and benefited from a four-pound weight shift on Plum Pretty. Joyful Victory was the heavy favorite in the Mother Goose and disappointed her backers. Buster’s Ready benefited from an inside trip and posted a four-length victory in the Mother Goose after facing Royal Delta in the Black Eyed Susan. Much like the male counterparts, the title will likely come down to the last few major races left.

Older Males

With the retirements of Lookin At Lucky and Blame from last year, this division is will be a battle royale down to the end. Last week Pool Play came from out of the clouds to capture the Stephen Foster at 36-1, Apart won the William Donald Schaeffer on the Preakness undercard, and First Dude won the Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks under card. From the looks of it, if Zenyatta was to come out of retirement to avenge her Classic defeat from last year, it would not be a tough task to pull off. The same theory would go for Lookin At Lucky as well.

Parity in the divisions is not all terrible though, it certainly makes things more interesting from this point on with each race increasing in importance and the chances of a nice payoff on a strong opinion of these races very likely as well. With the Versus channel showing the premier events from Saratoga and the chances of some very crucial races to be run, this can be seen as a boost to a sport that could use all the help it can get.

Add another one to the books

2011-06-18T21:00:00.002-04:00

Time for more saturation of the already over populated two day and now 15 race Breeders Cup program. The new race on the schedule is the Juvenile Sprint that is open to the colts, geldings, and fillies. It also carries a $500,000 purse which doubles or triples all other juvenile races around that time period including the Iroquois and Pocahontas from Churchill and the already depleted stakes races of the Nashua and Tempted stakes from Aqueduct. Thus drawing away from even more stakes races run in the fall. This isn’t even the interesting part of the story; there were two remarks that were made that stuck out from this stub of an article.

“A six furlong sprint race for Juveniles has the potential to provide highly competitive fields in this new division.”
-David Willmot

“In discussions with horsemen on selecting a new race, an overwhelming majority requested that we add a Juvenile Sprint to the Championships program. There are a number of talented 2-year-old sprinters around the world who are not suited or may not be ready to run the two turns at 1 1/16 miles of the Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies in early November. The Juvenile Sprint provides horsemen with an alternative.”
-Clem Murphy

First off the comment by Mr. Willmot, the juvenile division is just the juvenile division. There was no split between the sprinters and routers at this point like their older counterparts featured in the other races. Most of the races around this point in the year are seven furlongs or longer as well, there is very little in the way of established sprint races for the newly minted thoroughbred runners. NYRA used to have a pair of sprint races that they ran in October called the Cowdin and Astarita; they were discontinued due to the Breeder’s Cup and a lack of entries. Do you know what this race will feature? Mostly horses that just broke their maidens and are Breeders’ Cup nominated. More than likely it will be a highly pursed n1x allowance.

Murphy mentioned that there is a group of juveniles that are not ready to go two turns or the 8-½ furlongs that the two mainstay juvenile races are established at. Doesn’t that apply to 90% of the horse population at this point their career anyway? Even the established routers from late in the season last year turned into busts this year Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Awesome Feather did not transfer their form to this year after showing two turn prowess last year. Two out of the last three Derby winners were turf or synthetic winners as two-year-olds in addition to this. If distance were such an issue it would make more sense to shorten the big two back to a one-turn mile or seven furlongs. The 7/8 of a mile distance seems to be a stretch for most of the horses entered in the two mainstay juvenile races anyway.

Lastly, the two day 15 race mega-card of the Breeders’ Cup probably has a few too many races. The Marathon was added as a way to “encourage” racetracks to add long distance races to their programs. From the looks of it, the effort made by racing secretaries is minimal. There is little in the way of recognizable long distance races outside of the Brooklyn and the Greenwood Cup Handicap. If there was any kind of effort put in by the major tracks there would be at least two competitive options a month for runners at this distance. This race is seen as an afterthought where a trainer will throw a runner if they ran good in a lesser prep or were beaten badly in one of the major preps. Back in 2005 there were only eight races featuring the best of the best, an overload of races and a burnout of the races that act as preps for the big day have diluted the Breeders’ Cup program. Adding even more races will not fix this problem.

A Sea Of Slop

2011-06-12T16:00:00.001-04:00

For the first time since 2003 the Belmont Stakes card was contested in the mud. Bad weather and longshots won the day. Only one of the six betting favorites won and it was Trappe Shot in convincing fashion. Otherwise, if you bet against the public, you made out well for the day.

The Acorn was a prelude of what was to come with the odds-on Turbulent Descent going down in defeat to It's Tricky, who was coming off of a wide journey in the Florida Oaks against the classy R Heat Lightning. Turbulent Descent was three lengths behind the winner and ten lengths in front of the show runner. It should be noted the the dirt strip had a pronounced speed bias just from the first glance at the full charts as well.

The True North was all Trappe Shot, chances are there will be a race between Big Drama and Trappe Shot in the near future at Saratoga. Below is the last point in the race that anyone was close to the winner.

Justin Phillip was up against the class of his division for the first four months of the year facing Mucho Macho Man, Vengeful Wildcat, Adios Charlie, and Astrology in graded stakes action. So far the Jerome has been an effective key race with Astrology finishing third in the Preakness and Adios Charlie getting nipped in the Peter Pan. This race was beaten up a little bit with the scratches of the royally bred Bold Warrior and Little Drama, reducing the field to five runners.

The two grade one turf races had two things in common, the winner was no worse than first at any point in the race and they were both tote board busting winners. C.S. Silk had a career resume that had a place finish in grade one company last year at Keeneland chasing home the dominant Proviso, yesterday she took advantage of a paceless race and wired the field.

Mission Approved is an incredible story when you look at his record, his most recent effort was July 18, 2010 where he almost upset Gio Ponti and before that mostly placings in NY bred stakes company with a win against $40,000 claimers to his credit. Gio Ponti has had a bad history on less than firm turf, he has lost twice as a favorite to two massive longshots. Before today, he lost the 2009 Turf Classic to Interpatation after holding a slim lead in the stretch on a soft surface.

Speed ruled the mile and a half races for the weekend at Belmont. Ruler On Ice was up close to Shackleford early and had enough left in reserve to hold off Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed to cap off a longshot laden series of three year old stakes races. Animal Kingdom encountered a bad trip from the starting bell and never got closer than fourth after a sustained drive from the half mile pole to the eighth pole. It remains to be seen how much the triple crown has taken out of the main players as well. Shackleford gave his all and was done in the stretch with just enough out finish Animal Kingdom. Mucho Macho Man was a non factor from the mile marker to the finish line finishing 24 1/4 lengths behind the upset winner.

All Mott, All The Time

2011-06-12T14:00:00.000-04:00

The Friday before the Belmont was Mott's day to reign supreme in the two featured stakes races. Courageous Cat had no problem coming back from the October layoff and chasing down the loose on the lead Yield Bogey. Courageous Cat was second in the 2009 Breeder's Cup Mile to the legendary mare Goldikova and since then has only seen competition four times including Friday's victory. If this horse can keep it together, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

The Brooklyn Handicap was Drosselmeyer's attempt at winning both mile and a half stakes races offered for the Belmont meet. It was not to be, as the uncoupled Mott entry Birdrun led the field of five wire to wire with the 2010 Belmont winner chasing the whole way. In recent years the Brooklyn winner has been a horse that usually needs long distance races in order to be successful. Birdrun has wins at 9 furlongs or shorter before this victory and could be a force in the handicap division if everything breaks right.

Belmont Stakes Power Cap

2011-06-11T05:18:00.001-04:00

Nice card at Belmont today. Hopefully the rain does not decimate the races and most importantly all horses and riders go back to their barns safely. This is the one day of the year when the racetrack crowd in downstate New York is not dominated by old degenerates. It is nice to see some people from outside the typical demographic enjoy the races.

McLaughlin's loaded gun
It looks like trainer McLaughlin can plan to make a more than one trip to the winners circle on this card. He has three likely winners; none of them are going to be great prices but they could be a safe heaven in a long program. In race one Marine Officer -dam was NY stakes winner Asti- should crush this field. She has class and a class turf horse like this usually has little problem winning off a layoff. In race four Rattlesnake Bridge has a rare five furlong work-McLaughlin usually works them 4 furlongs when they work 5 furlongs that signals readiness- this colt just towers over this field. Race 7 will be Trappe Shot's unveiling as top sprinter in the country. Like Rattlesnake Bridge this colt has a five furlong work signaling readiness.

Just A Game Stakes
This looks like a wide open race. No real standout here but Much Rejoicing is a filly that could win the"Just A Game" at a generous price. Race lacks pace which plays into Much Rejoicing's wheelhouse-this filly is used to pressing fast paces in sprints. Look at how this filly has done so much in such little time. Races on dirt, over pol track, over turf, then trips to Florida, New York, Canada. Then she completes her education with run over wet tracks, fast tracks and then turf. She has been liberally educated in the racing arts. She has shown that she has class and can run over broken bottles if needed. Today is the day she can apply that broad education towards a trip to the winners circle. Hopefully we can go for the ride alongside her.

Manhattan Stakes
Standout horse here in Prince Will I Am. Bet with him and you could feel like a king. The cutback from those marathon races in Florida should have this horse stout and strong in the homestretch. The Prince loves New York with a grade one win over this very track last year along with a win at the Spa. Race sets up nice for him. A cornerstone selection to build your castle around.

Belmont Stakes
Wide open race this year that looks interesting. Sometimes this race can be an afterthought. The early wagering has the public hammering down on Master of Hounds. The American raceing public has had this affection for Aiden O'Brien and the horses he ships from Ireland to run stateside. Unfortunately for the public Mr. O'Brien has not returned the favor with no wins in the last five years. Is this the horse to break the streak? Maybe it is better to let that long streak of futility to continue with someone else's money.

My longshot pet pick is Santiva. He is bred for this long trip and has run well in all of his dirt races. I like the preparation he has received taking five weeks off to prepare for this race from the derby. He is going to be my key horse that will be used with others in multi race wagers and trifectas.

Prime Cut is another horse here that will run well and surprise many with his talents of mobility.

Since Santiva is no lock with will also use Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Prime Cut and money burner O'Brien's colt Master Of Hounds.

Belmont Stakes Longshot Selection

2011-06-07T03:07:00.006-04:00

The Belmont Stakes is often a race were the public hones on a Derby and Preakness winners only to be surprised when a new shooter upsets the field. Just in the last ten years six bona fide longshots have made Belmont Stakes betting a true bonanza for those picking the winner. Those that selected Sarava at 70-1, Da Tara at 38-1, Birdstone at 36-1 or even Drosselmeyer at 13-1 were rewarded handsomely. The Belmont is a race for longshots. 12 furlongs is an unusual distance that yields unexpected results.

This year the surprise horse looks like Santiva. Santiva beat our Preakness pick Astrology(who ran a credible third) in the Kentucky Jockey Club in a game performance. Santiva was squeezed like a lemon between horses. Instead of yielding lemon juice Santiva gamely responded by winning. This horse ran a valiant sixth in the derby while never really having any room. His race on the poly in the Bluegrass -a bizarre surface where races can be ignored- is a clear throwout. The trainer Eddie Kenneally is a top shelf trainer and Santiva is bred to win going long by sire Giants Causeway. A smooth mover who should be close to the pace Santiva is going to run great at around 15-1.

'Tiz gone

2011-05-31T18:00:00.001-04:00

Tizway, son of champion Tiznow ran away with what looked to be a wide open edition of the Met Mile. Usually the offspring of Tiznow improves with age, Morning Line is another example of late maturity with explosive speed in the offspring of the two time Classic winner. There were two horses that loved the big sandy strip, the winner of this race and Haynesfield; the horse for course angle was in full effect here. The time of 1:32.9 is probably a byproduct of a very fast surface though, My Golden Opinion zipped through the distance of 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15.32 and claimers ran 1:09.66 for three quarters of a mile one race later.

The horse that most likely will improve off of this race is the second place finisher Rodman, who has come back better than ever in his three starts off the extremely long December 2009 layoff. Haynesfield threw a fit in the post parade dumping the injured Ramon Dominguez and did not run well in his second start off the layoff, not a good sign at all. Caixa Electronica continued his streak of running steady to impressive efforts with his third place effort. Any good efforts from the Arromanches progeny is good news for the racing product as it seems he has passed on his consistency and soundness to future generations.

Shackleford's Unbelievable Win

2011-05-25T18:39:00.003-04:00

How did this colt win the Preakness? It was an unbelievable win that goes against every convention and every canard of reason. Last out in the derby he faced a tepid pace and faded like he did not have the requisite courage to win a classic. Horses that fade in the lane usually fade in the lane every time. Now in the Preakness he faced a stiffer pace which makes fading in the lane an absolute near certainty.

The real mind bender was the looks of this colt before the race. Shackleford was a complete washed out mess. When he loaded I said to myself "no way he wins". Horses that lose their composure and wash that badly do not win races; especially route races. Not only did the disheveled Shackleford win a graded stakes route race- he won a classic after fading in a similar race just two weeks earlier. It is a result that boggles the mind in every way. He must of annexed the efforts of three races and concentrated the exertions into his Preakness run. If any horse was ever going to bounce next out- it is Shackleford.

Take a shot

2011-05-22T20:00:00.001-04:00

Animal Kingdom proved himself to be a legit dirt runner yesterday and will be a major threat going forward. Shackleford will have something to prove moving forward off of this race, he was up on a pace that was much faster and more contested than the Derby and have enough in the reserves to hold off a horse that blew by him two weeks prior. Three-year-old colts can make dramatic improvements from race to race in the spring, but to do these two things in one race is a little hard to believe.

One race left to go to the annual spring series and for a third straight year the crown is not on the line. A bust for bartenders at Belmont and ticket holders looking flip their tickets. There could still be lemonade made out of these lemons though. Animal Kingdom can be the first Derby-Belmont winner since Thunder Gulch if the connections see fit to enter him. Shackleford can prove that his Preakness win was not bias aided (being off the rail in the stretch was key) if he can last the grueling 12 furlongs of the Belmont Stakes. While it doesn’t have the sizzle or flash of a Triple Crown bid, it certainly makes for an interesting rematch with the likely possibility of Nehro running as well.

Street Sense and Super Saver both opted to pass the Belmont after defeats in the Preakness, with the bigger picture of making the Travers in mind. It worked out well for Street Sense, not so much for Super Saver. There is a reason for skepticism that Animal Kingdom would run in the last leg based on this, the same goes for Shackleford. Graham Motion is a conservative trainer who likes more time in between races as well, so another big race in three weeks with other big purse possibilities looming further down the road also gives one a moment of pause on the likelihood of the Derby winner making the Belmont.

Shackleford was all out to hold off the onslaught of closers in his last three efforts, 1 ½ miles gives the runners that excel in the last half of a race more time to make their moves. There is also the issue of this horse laying it all on the line like he did in his last three starts, how much is left in the tank for another big effort?

The Belmont Stakes could very well decide the Eclipse Award this year if both of the classic winners decide to show up. It would certainly behoove the connections of these colts to enter in the third leg as well. If Animal Kingdom goes and Shackleford stays in the stable and Animal Kingdom wins, it makes it harder for Shackleford to make up ground in the division with restricted graded stakes opportunities drying up. The same example could be used in reverse as well. No one in the division has more than one grade one win to their name up to this point, every grade one counts twice as much now as far as division bragging rights. Passing up a chance to take one down is akin to folding a good hand in poker, why not take a shot?

NYRA Rewards Meltdown

2011-05-20T15:19:00.006-04:00

For the last nine years I have had a NYRA wagering account. First it was NYRA telebet then NYRA one now it is known as NYRA rewards. This was the best account. Friendly staff. The key thing was that on a busy day like the derby or breeders cup they were the only ADW that answered the phone. The service was reliable; if you had two minutes there was time to sneak a bet in. No other ADW was like that- the rest of them are overwhelmed with long queues on the phone. Then the NYRA corporate stiffs got involved and outsourced the NYRA call center to twinspires. Now the service is unusable.

When I was visiting Las Vegas on derby weekend I attempted to make a few wagers from my room. No luck. This was clearly the worst big day for nyra telebet in the 9 years I have had the account. Now it is only Black Eyed Susan day at Pimlico and after about ten attempts I can not reach an agent at NYRA.

Only corporate stooges- blinded by numbers yet far removed from the daily operation of customer service would close the most efficient call center to sub-contract out to the most over whelmed call center. With the outsorced help in place NYRA rewards is now a useless service. I urge all NYRA rewards members to close their accounts and spend the time they used playing horses serving some charity. It is not worth making ten phone calls to make one special daily double that is only available on the phone. This beleaguered outfit does not answer the phone.

Preakness field rundown

2011-05-19T19:00:00.000-04:00

1. Astrology (15/1)

Looking back at the charts from the April race at Aqueduct, the inside was not a good spot on the track. Anyone that started on the rail that day did not win and Adios Charlie was wide and off the rail early on in the Jerome. Astrology finally got into gear when taken off the rail in that race as well. Astrology is the consistent sort and could merit a chance with a decent value in the win pool.

2. Norman Asbjornson (30/1)

Exits the Wood Memorial, which retained its title as the worst prep race to be in with two defections of key contenders before the Derby was run (Uncle Mo and Toby’s Corner). He did close into a slow pace in the Wood though.

3. King Congie (20/1)

Who?

4. Flashpoint (20/1)

Pretty light on the experience side and will likely be up on the pace with Shackleford.

5. Shackleford (12/1)

Got away with a comfortable lead and easy fractions in the Derby, he looked like he hit a wall in the last eighth of a mile in that race as well. More than likely he will see some competition up front in this one as well.

6. Sway Away (15/1)

Went zero for three in stakes company and made a premature move in the Arkansas Derby. Nehro was third out of that race and Archarcharch was well off the board. Mixed signs on that front and this one could better fitted for sprints base on his record.

7. Midnight Interlude (15/1)

Went from maiden to derby also ran in two races and could be up against it based on experience alone. Not to mention that the Southern California contingent has had a sour winter and spring as well.

8. Dance City (12/1)

Another speed here, this one is another Arkansas Derby new shooter.

9. Mucho Macho Man (6/1)

Always seems to run a decent to good race and showed a different dimension with his closing kick at Chuchill Downs. Would not be a shocker if this one got to the winner’s circle.

10. Dialed In (9/2)

His dramatic one run running style worked against him last out and is aiming for a big purse here. It will be hard to leave him out of the exotics and multis.

11. Animal Kingdom (2/1)

Could he win this race? Sure. Is he worth the bet at the fraction of the odds that you were getting two weeks ago? Probably not. By no means is this horse a lock for this leg, some of the new shooters have a chance and the returning Derby foes have a solid case for a rebound performance. This is a race that is worth shopping around for value in the win pool. As for the exotics and multis, it is probably a good idea to include this one for protection from a bust with juiced up odds in these pools.

12. Isn’t He Perfect (30/1)

If this is a question, then the answer is no.

13. Concealed Identity (30/1)

Probably will run like he is in witness protection here.

14. Mr. Commons (20/1)

If this horse wins, look for the stud fee on Artie Schiller to shoot up shortly after the results.

Preakness Power Longshot

2011-05-15T00:16:00.000-04:00

With the Preakness Stakes 2011 looming it is time to share our longshot selection. Astrology is a speedy horse we have been following since he broke his maiden at Saratoga. With projected odds at around 15-1 this new shooter to the triple crown could make Preakness betting very rewarding. After a stakes win at Churchill last year he has followed up with three consecutive second place finishes. This colt has the pedigree and connections to win this race.

Astrology broke his maiden at the Spa in one of those super maiden races; a full field of 14 and he beat future stakes winner To Honor and Serve. This might have been a sprint win but this horse is by Chef de Race A.P. Indy; this a horse bred to go long. With 2011 derby-like tepid pace Astrology could sit a nice trip right off the pace. The threats to win -both closers- Dailed In and Animal Kingdom should leave Astrology alone on the pace.

Astrology can be absolved of his last two losses. His first first loss this year was in the Sunland Derby. Off a long layoff he pressed a wicked 45 and change pace. Rather than fade meekly Astrology still finished strong for the place. Horse thrive on routine and do not like abrupt change. Astrology had to deal with massive change for his next race. From bone dry desert to bog Astrology was shipped to Aqueduct for the waterlogged sloppy Jerome. He finished a gallant second to Adios Charlie who subsequently gave a good account of himself in the Peter Pan at Belmont.

With two races under his belt in this form cycle Astrology should be ready to run his peak race in the Preakness. The connections of trainer Asmussen and Stonestreet stables have won this race two of the last four years with 2007 winner Curlin and 2009 heroine Rachel Alexandra. Astrology has a shot to make it three out of five.

A Crucial Turning Point

2011-05-14T18:30:00.002-04:00

The Preakness is now a week away; the Derby is considered the biggest event of the year, but the most important race of the year historically speaking is the Preakness. It has decided more year end honors than any other race has done in recent memory. Not to mention the obvious that it is the middle leg of the Triple Crown and is a single elimination playoff race for the Derby winner. There have been some dramatic finishes in recently as well. Recent memory speaks for itself on this one.

2010, Lookin at Lucky

After rough trips at Churchill and Santa Anita, he acquitted himself nicely with a jockey switch from Garret Gomez to Martin Garcia. Lookin at Lucky went on the clinch the divisional championship with a win in the Haskell. The Derby winner Super Saver was not the same after this race with the first of three off the board finishes. First Dude finished a resilient second after setting the pace, foreshadowing what the rest of the year held for this horse.

2009, Rachel Alexandra

Mine That Bird did not scare off many in this race and one of the chief opponents was a filly that just won by 20 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. Breaking from post 13, Rachel Alexandra was wide most of the way while near the lead and still had enough left to hold off the surge of Mine That Bird. She went on to beat the male competition twice after this race en route to Horse of the Year and Champion three year old filly honors.

2008, Big Brown

After a dominant win in the Derby, he won with ease in the Preakness. If it weren’t for a quarter crack injury before the Belmont, this one would be referred to as a Triple Crown winner. He won two races at Monmouth Park and was named three-year-old champion.

2007, Curlin

The juvenile champion Street Sense and Curlin battled down to the wire in a photo finish that was about a fingernail difference between Street Sense going for a Triple Crown and taking an extended rest for the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup. Curlin was involved in two other thrilling stretch runs, the Belmont against Rags to Riches and the Jockey Club Gold Cup against Lawyer Ron. Both of those opponents went on to be named three-year-old filly champion and older male champion respectively. Curlin went on to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder’s Cup Classic, which was the first of two Horse of the Year campaigns.

Animal Kingdom and Dialed In are the two horses that will immediately get a boost to the top of the class based on past successes. If one of the fresh horses or a Derby also ran wins it, a new challenger for the year-end championships has arrived. It will certainly be an interesting week.

Do My Eyes Deceive Me?

2011-05-14T11:00:00.005-04:00

What you see above is entries for a race at 1 ¼ miles on the Sunday card, a two turn race at Belmont that is not named the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Belmont Stakes, or the Brooklyn Handicap. Surely this is an illusion, NYRA cannot card enough turf sprints and this is taking up space of another turf sprint. All those distance races get in the way of those magnificent turf sprints for maidens, claimers, and maiden claimers alike. Those same turf sprints that reside at least half of a late pick four on any given day and add more horses onto said pick four tickets. Yes, those turf sprints are something!

Money Money Money

2011-05-13T19:00:00.000-04:00

The Preakness is fast approaching after the long build towards the Kentucky Derby; the connections of Dialed In will be going for a $5.5 million payday being offered for winning the Holly Bull, Florida Derby and the Preakness. If Animal Kingdom wins this race and the Belmont to become the 12th Triple Crown winner, the owner is in line for $2.4 million in total purses without any bonus.

If Dialed in does win this race it is more than likely than not that Zito will chose to skip the Belmont with this one. He has stated that this horse thrives on a light schedule, a mile and a half race three weeks out from the Preakness is definitely not in a light schedule. If there were no bonus being offered for the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it is very likely that Dialed In would be training for the Belmont.

Only one horse has a chance at the Triple Crown, Animal Kingdom. His explosive run in the Derby made this possible. Up until 2004 there was a bonus offered by Visa for any horse that could sweep the series and in addition to that they held a less known, but lucrative bonus for the points leader of the three-year-old division up until August of the racing season. Before Visa, Chrysler had a Triple Crown series bonus based on points with a million-dollar bonus for the leader in points for those who raced in all three races. No one is sponsoring the hallowed racing series this year, leaving a $2.9 million dollar gap in purse incentives between the three big races and the Magna purse sweetener.

The old saying “Money makes the horse go” can certainly be used here; Dialed In ran an even, but distant ninth in the run for the roses. The Preakness would not be on the radar of the connections of Dialed In if it weren’t for the money being offered. Ice Box ran a visually impressive second last year in the Derby for the same trainer and same owner as Dialed In, they opted to try the Belmont instead of wheeling back in two weeks for the big race in Baltimore. This only goes to show that if there is an added incentive to run that trainers and owners will find their way to the secretary’s office a lot faster than usual. Back in the early nineties there was a series of races that offered bonuses for the handicap division called the American Championship Racing Series. Those races featured full fields with top horses facing off.

If anything the slot machine parlors and card rooms probably won’t be the savoir of racing, but they do offer a new revenue stream. That revenue stream at its best can serve as a way to get horses out of the stables and back on to the racetrack. With NYRA eventually getting this new source of income, one could be hopeful that this could lead to juiced up purses with bonuses that have the possibility of attracting large fields for one of the beacons of racing in the United States.

No Big Shoes to Fill Here

2011-05-08T12:00:00.003-04:00

The past ten years have not been kind to the winners of the Kentucky Derby. The last great horse to win this race was Silver Charm with seven graded stakes victories following his triple crown season and his greatest racing accomplishment being a victory in the $4 million Dubai World Cup.

2001, Monarchos

Only three starts after the Derby (two of which were in the triple crown) and was defeated by a combined 29 ¼ lengths in those starts.

2002, War Emblem

One for three after the triple crown bid, his lone win coming against three year olds in the Haskell. His two losses against older competition in the Pacific Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Classic

2003, Funny Cide

Probably the most accomplished of the bunch. He won the 2004 Jockey Club Gold Cup and a few other races in his seasons following the Derby win and Triple Crown bid.

2004, Smarty Jones

Raced twice after the Derby and had his Triple Crown attempt was thwarted in the final yards of the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Was retired before the Breeders’ Cup with soundness issues.

2005, Giacomo

Following two distant finishes in the Preakness and Belmont; Giacomo went one for six with a win at four years old in the San Diego Handicap.

2006, Barbaro

Was catastrophically injured during the running of the Preakness Stakes. He showed great potential before the injury and is in the same league with Ruffian in the “what might have been” category.

2007, Street Sense

Won the Jim Dandy and Travers after his narrow defeat to the great Curlin in the Preakness. Managed to get four starts in before going to stud at three with 2-1-0 record out of four starts. He ended his career with two losses though, a second to Hard Spun in the now defunct Kentucky Cup Classic and a distant fourth to Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

2008, Big Brown

After a record setting loss by any horse attempting the Triple Crown, he went on to win two races at Monmouth (one of them being the Haskell) and was retired after a recurring hoof injury reared its ugly head.

2009, Mine That Bird

Managed to do better in the Triple Crown series than his upset counterpart from 2005 with a second in the Preakness and a third in the Belmont with a combined margin of defeat of four lengths. Was winless for the rest of his career and retired at the end of 2010

2010, Super Saver

Tried hard to match Monarchos’ record for Derby futility in a record amount of time with three losses following his moment of glory at Churchill. Super Saver far back at Baltimore, blown away by Lookin at Lucky again in the Haskell, and was tenth in the Travers. If you ever needed a shining example of a flash in the pan, this is it.

Graham Motion trains this year’s Derby victor and he can stretch out a horse’s peak form for quite a while. Just from a first impression it looks like Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man are probably the two most likely horses who can parlay their Derby performances into Preakness triumphs. Not a lot else looked impressive out of the other 17 runners that crossed the finish line. Shackleford may be at his best going a mile to 1 1/8 miles as he hit the wall inside the 1/8 pole. Shackleford will likely take a lot of monetary support if he goes in the second leg. Otherwise, it probably will be prudent to look at the fresh challengers as legitimate threats to take down the Preakness.

Oaks-Derby DD

2011-05-06T17:46:00.003-04:00

Kentucky Derby Degraded Handicap

2011-05-05T22:00:00.003-04:00

A feature in the Daily Racing Form entries that has been a staple for decades and is now in an experimental run here in an effort to expand the horse racing betting bankrolls of all of our fine readers. Here goes nothing.

8. Dialed In (4/1)

The default Derby favorite after the sudden drop of Uncle Mo's stock, he has shown an impressive closing kick and will likely be leading the charge from the back of the pack.

9. Derby Kitten (30/1)

Ran an impressive race in the Lexington on my pace figures and the main knock on the fact that the field he faced not being good is probably superficial. None of these prep races has produced anything worthy of superstar status.

1. Archarcharch (10/1)

Much like the Zito favorite, he is a dual stakes winner in 2011. He is not getting the same amont of respect due to the fact that both were tote board busting victories. The post is terrible, but he is one that could settle back on the rail and have the shortest path to the winner's circle.

19. Nehro (6/1)

This one is the third choice on the morning line despite not having a stakes win to his name. He is probably going to go off at a short price for this type of spot as well with the kind of closing kick he showed in his two stakes defeats.

11. Master of Hounds (30/1)

Included this high because he is the stranger of the bunch. Aidan O'Brien rarely if ever ships over for the Derby and this one apparently is a horse he thinks can win this race. He ran second in the UAE Derby going 1 3/16 miles, so distance should not be a problem the dirt surface is another issue though.

4. Stay Thristy (20/1)

This one has been under the radar with the presence of his well known neighbor Uncle Mo. His form was flattered when Toby's Corner rebounded from the Gotham defeat to win the Wood Memorial.

15. Midnight Interlude (10/1)

Up until April 9th, not a lot of people had this horse on their radar for the Derby. The defection of a few top stars in Southern California changed that outlook quite a bit. He could be coming into his own at the right time or that was a one race wonder. Either way the 10/1 line seems a bit low.

13. Mucho Macho Man (12/1)

Has shown the ability to rate off the speeds and has been working decently leading up to the Derby, he could be overlooked here and the value is there.

18. Uncle Mo (9/2)

How the mighty have fallen, there is a chance he may not run. Only included on here because he is the lowest in the line of probability in likely winners.

A graded handicap would have all twenty runners listed, but at this point trying to make a case for the other 11 is not an easy task at all. All the ones not mentioned above either have zero form or only positive races on the synthetic surfaces with no other redeemable qualities to speak of. You kind of have to feel sorry for the public handicappers who do the graded handicap and go through this mess on a yearly basis.

Oaks day preview

2011-05-05T20:45:00.000-04:00

Derby weekend kicks off with five stakes races and the Oaks on Friday, the first post for Churchill is 10:30 in the morning. The La Troienne (older fillies and mares, route), Edgewood (three year old fillies, grass route), Eight Belles (three year old fillies, sprint), Alysheba (older males, route), American Turf (three year olds, grass route), and the Kentucky Oaks are the stakes races on hand for this day of racing.

La Troienne

Arguably the best race featured on the card with the rematch of the one-two finishers from the Breeders’ Cup Distaff from last year. The rematch of Unrivaled Belle and Blind Luck doesn’t have the same luster that it would back in December or January due to the fact that both have combined for four losses since that November night. Blind Luck contributed with three of those four loses. In two of those loses she was up against a lone leader who controlled the race from start to finish and the most recent loss to long time rival Havre De Grace, who has come into her own in her four year old season with two stakes wins so far.

The three out of the supporting cast that could have a chance at making an impact is Quiet Giant, All Due Respect, and Absinthe Minded. All three also will likely contribute to the pace scenario as well. Quiet Giant ran some big numbers over the winter at Aqueduct although it was against a weaker bunch than at other locales. All Due Respect is exiting from the extremely competitive Gulfstream meet where she ran a big race against Florida bred runners. Three out of her four wins have been against allowance fields in addition to her stakes victory and will need to step up big to win here. Absinthe Minded was part of the Lukas stable that led the Oaklawn meet in wins. A six pound shift in the weights against Blind Luck and a shift to an outside post could make a difference in the outcome here.

The Edgewood

2000 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Perfect Sting is represented here with Smart Sting, who is unbeaten in two starts. The sire of Smart Sting is Smart Strike, this filly is bred to do anything. Sassy’s Dream has shown some decent closing kick in two of his last three on the lawn, if she holds at the 8-1 morning line she will be a decent value play in this race.

The Eight Belles

Fame by association here; Arienza faced top class filly Joyful victory, Pomeroys Pistol was up against R Heat Lightning, and Honey Chile was competing against Turbulent Descent in her latest. Two interesting runners in here are Home Sweet Aspen and Holiday Flare, both are stepping up to graded stakes company after preliminary condition wins. Home Sweet Aspen is coming off a maiden score and has a pedigree geared for speed. Holiday Flare ran fast breaking her maiden and then ran evenly in her allowance score, with Pletcher training this one the odds will probably be depressed.

The Alysheba

Toby’s Corner may not be going in the Derby, but New York stalwart Icabad Crane is entered in this spot. Coming off of back to back state bred triumphs Graham Motion and company are rolling the dice here for the winner’s share of the $300,000 purse. The shipping in from Fair Hill for a race angle is in effect here and it has paid off in the past with some decent prices.

Regal Ransom’s last year may have been a complete wash with three poor finishes in three stakes race, but he comes in to this race with some foundation. His first start of the year was at Gulfstream in a sprint stakes race against Capt. Candyman Can, a multiple time stakes winner. In that race Regal Ransom broke from the rail, was behind the eight ball the whole way, and just missed for the win.

The Kentucky Oaks

The jewel in the crown of the Friday card. Joyful Victory has reeled off two dominant wins at Oaklawn since the layoff from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Lilacs and Lace wired the Ashland field at 48-1 and now has to prove she can run on dirt. If Kathmanblu had won the Ashland more than likely she would be an overwhelming favorite here, she could be had at a price here off of that defeat. Zazu was in the Santa Anita Oaks, which had Turbulent Descent win her next start at Keeneland and the race was running identical fractions to the Santa Anita Handicap on the same day. Plum Pretty won by 25 lengths in her recent outing at Sunland Park upstaging her male counterparts that ran in the Sunland Derby. Much like the American Turf Stakes, this race is wide open. There is double wagering on the last two stakes races and a longshot in either or both would make for a nice cap off to the day.

Let the insanity begin

2011-05-03T20:00:00.001-04:00

Derby week is upon us, it is a cornucopia of the good and the bad encompassed in one weekend at Churchill. It used to be that the Kentucky Derby and the other Triple Crown events were the definitive weekends in the sport. With advent of simulcast racing and multi-million dollar purse days at racetracks, the Triple Crown has lost some impact as the center of the racing universe. One thing remains certain though, the Derby is still the best known and heaviest bet race on the calendar year with the exception of a Triple Crown bid and the two dollar souvenir ticket bonanza that happens that day at Belmont Park.

The Bad

Despite the fact there is 12 to 13 races on a Derby card, the only race that is remembered is the main event. Despite the fact there has been some decent horse that have competed on that weekend, last year Rachel Alexandra was in an all out stretch duel with the eventual Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Unrivaled Belle. In 2004 reigning horse of the year Azeri was on the Derby undercard as well and was also in an all stretch duel and was defeated at short odds. The undercards of the Oaks and Derby get lost in the shuffle, yet they are always loaded with talent that end up going places later in they year. It is frustrating, because of the fact if the public got familiar with the divisions other than the three-year-old group maybe there would be increased interest in the sport. Maybe with the NBC affiliates picking up the races leading up to the big race there could be some prolonged interest in the sport outside of the big days.

Some call the infield of Churchill the biggest party of the year, it looks more like people that are there just to get drunk and don’t follow the races to me. When ESPN used to do the follow up coverage to the Derby, they would send a reporter (usually in their 20’s and a female) to the infield for what could be described best as small talk with really drunk people. It is actually a bit of surprise that the reporter was never treated like the one that was abused in Egypt during the revolution, even with the influence of alcohol. It would be nice to see the racing coverage divert to the races on hand and not the frat house guy who can down a 30 case of Natty Ice or the celebrities on hand who wouldn’t know Seattle Slew from Zippy Chippy. It would be nice to see this happen, but it is highly unlikely.

The Good

Look at all that good racing, it makes you feel cheated doesn’t it? Yes, after enduring months of $7,500 non winners of two lifetime claimers and racing cards with five state bred maiden claimers you the horseplayer get an overload of high quality races with juiced up pools. Churchill has twelve graded stakes races with varying divisions on tap over the course of two days and as many wagering pools as the mind can dream of. Be warned though, the letdown from these types of days is tremendous. It is like taking a vacation from work and having to come back to work on Monday when you look at the Sunday card at Belmont following the two big days at Churchill.

This is the only time of the year it is considered all right to drink mint juleps. That sticky sweet concoction using bourbon and mint leaves is considered a really bad drink 364 days of the year and this is the one day can drink it without getting a weird look from your bartender or the patrons at the bar. Maker’s Mark produces a blend of their bourbon that is mint julep flavored, finding it is near impossible in NY, because no one in their right mind would drink this on any other day than the first Saturday in May.

The Return of Big Sandy

2011-04-28T04:00:00.001-04:00

After six months racing at Aqueduct, a place despised by 100% of the scribes that cover the sport for the daily newspapers the racing operations move to Belmont. The meet opens up with a lot of interesting notes; reduced base wagers, the return of the train to the track, and the annual stakes shuffle.

Pick four? Can barely pick one!

The base wager for the pick four is now fifty cents with the start of the spring/summer meet. Anything that can bring more players into a lucrative wager is always a positive thing. The dime superfectas are a staple at the NYRA racetracks since its inception in 2007 and the Gulfstream dime pick six built up a pool of five million on the mandatory pay out day at its most recent meet. The low base wagers are a wonder for the bankroll for any horseplayer, they offer the chance for a big score for a low risk.

Offering the pick four wager at fifty cents gives one a chance to include more runners in one race as back up if a race is a skull buster. A pick four that is 4x4x4x4 would cost $256 a year ago will now be half of that. The downside to this is that a single longshot does not inflate the payoffs for the wager like it used to. The best strategy for this new base of the wager is playing some combinations more than other combinations, ensuring that you are paid a fair price for your opinion.

Use it or lose it

The LIRR is restoring daily service back to its Belmont branch; you’re welcome. More than likely this train will see an automatic increase in commuters due to the OTB branches not being open. Instead of the regulars going to the 38th & Broadway OTB parlor they will likely be walking four blocks to Penn Station to catch the early double.

Deeper than the fact that racing fans have their own rail service returning is the fact that getting the MTA to return defunct or abandoned service is really hard to do. The subway out to Aqueduct was at one point run by the Long Island Railroad. The NYC Transit Authority bought the whole line in 1955 and they only kept the trains in service from Aqueduct out to Rockaway as part of the A train. The line used to start at Rego Park and if they kept that around today there would be no need for the Air Train.

Pletcher will probably win those two races

The Matron and Belmont Futurity are back on the schedule in a new spot on the Independence Day weekend. It has been reduced to six furlongs and will go up against the Churchill juvenile races to be run on that same weekend. Both of the Belmont counterparts will probably draw five and Pletcher will have three in each race, one of which will probably be 1/10 and lose.

The Peter Pan is back as well and in its customary place on the weekend between the Derby and the Preakness. The stakes races on the NY circuit has been shifted around a lot in recent memory, the Withers was not run last weekend and in its place was the Jerome. The Bed O’Roses will be at Belmont for another year after spending decades at Aqueduct. The Gazelle was at Aqueduct last year after spending years at Belmont as a last run to the Breeders’ Cup. The changes to the stakes schedule reflects more on how little trainers and owners want to run their horses now as opposed to forty years ago when there was a big race every weekend on the NY circuit.

Durkin Out as Triple Crown Announcer

2011-04-27T23:29:00.005-04:00

Race-caller Tom Durkin has stepped down from his triple crown announcing gig. It was a decision that Durkin considered for months. "It’s a tough professional decision, but a great personal one." For the horse racing nation this a tough pill to swallow. Durkin carries around a book with thousands of phrases - it is this dedication and hard work that turns talent into brilliance. If I hear scintillating one more time at the Breeders Cup I am going to have to personally fed-ex a Roget's thesaurus to California. A triple crown replacement has already been named for Durkin; Larry Collmus of Suffolk Down/Monmouth/Gulfstream fame has been tabbed.

This move from Durkin to Collmus is a huge step down. We go from the Tom "Cadillac" Durkin to Larry "Honda Accord" Collmus. Like the Honda Accord Larry is a reliable sort but unfortunately both the Accord and Larry are forgettable. Larry lacks the ability to convey any sort of drama like Tom Durkin can. Collmus is not a bad caller -he is actually one of the best -but he has the unfortunate fate of following the greatest announcer since the invention of the microphone.

Tom Durkin has a background in theater; there is not one racecaller in the country that can project the drama of the race into his racecall like Durkin can. Others can scream, they can yell, or they can recite their fill in the blank racecalls but nobody can get close to the variety and feel for the moment that Tom Durkin brought to big-event racing. Tom is in a class by himself and will be missed by many.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Archarcharch

2011-04-27T05:00:00.002-04:00

First Impression: He put in a good run to capture a pivotal race leading up to the Derby.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: It looks like the Derby has a good amount of speed that is going to go in here, this one has shown an ability to lay off the lead and make a late bid past some tiring front runners. He has a pair of stakes wins this year, which was not done by many up to this point.

The case against: The saying, “If you missed the wedding, don’t show up for the funeral” could very well apply to this one. His two stakes wins were high-octane payouts and off a high profile win he will likely attract a bit of support.

Since Smarty Jones won the Arkansas Derby back in 2004, this race has been a “hot race” for Derby or high profile stakes winners. Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Super Saver used this race for bigger and better things. Derby prep races are a fickle bunch. The Wood Memorial went nearly two decades from Pleasant Colony to Fusaichi Pegasus with horses unsuccessfully using this race to launch their run at the roses.

Location of the last prep races as a handicapping angle is at best a trivial angle, more importantly it is the extenuating circumstances surrounding the last race. Last year Super Saver ran on a conveyer belt surface and it toughened him up for his Derby run. In 2008 Big Brown circled a field from post 12 at Gulfstream en route to Louisville. The point being it is not where they race, it is how much they get out of the effort. With that being said, this son of Arch has shown a dimension that gives him an edge over his front running competition.

The Retro Files: Belmont LIRR Station, 2010

2011-04-25T05:00:00.010-04:00

Only four days away from the opening of the spring/summer meet at Belmont highlighted by many important stakes races, including the Metropolitan Handicap and the Belmont Stakes. The MTA website has no posted regular LIRR train schedule for the meet, meaning that they will likely have only two days of commuter trains stopping at big sandy (the day before the Belmont Stakes and the day of). With the closure of NYC Off Track Betting, this will surely drive up the attendance of Belmont with people having to visit the track to bet the races if they do not have a NYRA rewards account.

When the MTA stopped service out to the racetrack it was due to low ridership and it being a money losing route due to the first reason. Now that the Off Track Betting locations are no longer open the ridership for this train branch would surely increase. The bus service NYRA offered from certain branch locations to Aqueduct and it looked like it did well in getting fans to the track. Aqueduct saw an increase of double the amount of fans that went through the turnstiles from the 2009-2010 winter meet.

Kentucky Derby Top Three

2011-04-23T14:18:00.005-04:00

Why fiddle with ten or twelve horses when you can narrow down the winner of the Kentucky Derby to three horses. With so many flops this year and with a uninspiring decline in competition it was easier to separate the cream from the milk. Racing was just awful all winter in New York -it usually is- below par in Arkansas and putrid in former derby breeding ground California. Louisiana had a good meet at the Fairgrounds. The only strong racing in the country was the grand restoration that occurred at the Gulfstream meet. They had a banner meet there this year and produced two of our three contenders with all three spending time in South Florida.

3 - Mucho Macho Man - This guy has nice rating speed and has been training up a storm. Horse is game and is trained by real people and not a corporate drug store. Last work was 7 furlongs in 123 and change. There is something to root for here- trainer Kathy Ritvo is a heart transplant recipient and owners have faith in God. When jockey Eibar Coa was injured days before Mucho Macho Man's race in the Risen Star Stakes

"When they flew back to Florida, Dean went immediately to the hospital, where he presented Coa with a check for $18,000, matching the winning cut for the jockey of record in the Risen Star.

"Had Eibar been there, he could have ridden him to victory, too," Dean said. "We paid him as if he'd been on the horse.""

These are people I can root for and and I hope God has a nice surprise planned for them the first Saturday in May.

2 - Soldat - This is a big rangy colt that has proven that he can run on grass, dirt and slop. Horses that can run on any surface are just flat out talented. He was able to take down the Holy Bull which was a strong prep race at Gulfstream. His team of connections is strong with Kiaran McLaughlin calling the shots and Alan Garcia handling the reins. Distance should be no issue and if you can excuse his last race as a training lesson there is value here as well.

1- Dialed in - This guy is the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby and it is deserved. Initially I thought we were dealing with Ice Box part two here but since then I have done an about face on this colt. He is a strong closer, has worked out his lead changing issues and is being handled by two masters in Zito and Leparoux. The trainer provides the derby mastery and the Leparoux knows Churchill better than anyone - even Borel. Dialed In emerges as the king out of the tough Gulfstream Park meet. This is like a boxer emerging out of Philly or a handball player that is tops in Coney Island. This guy is going to be closing in the derby and will be very hard to keep im out of the frame. The one to fear at a short price.

A Storm is returning

2011-04-21T17:00:00.000-04:00

The champ is back. From the date of his last race on December 11th until now food has not tasted the same, the air has not smelled as fresh, and racing has not been the same. There have been three major snowstorms since Stormy's Majesty went on an extended break, clearly this was a sign from nature that it was not pleased with the absence of his majesty. While others have vainly tried to claim the empty throne left by the Galluscio rocket, Stormy has been biding his time waiting for worthy challengers. This race is just a harbinger of things to come, last year writers clearly marked their horse of the year ballots wrong due to blurry vision, acute headaches, or general malaise despite sound reasoning and an altered ballot to help the less technologically inclined. This year will be the year of Stormy's Majesty! All hail Stormy!

The Elusive Triple Crown

2011-04-21T05:00:00.001-04:00

Since Affirmed crossed the finish line ahead of Alydar back in 1978 there hasn’t been a sweep of the Triple Crown. That may have been the pinnacle of this treasured series. The year after there was Spectacular Bid who was presumed to have no peers able to defeat him. A safety pin, a bad ride, or a combination of both did in the infallible Spectacular Bid. There have been great thoroughbreds that have fallen short of the grand prize since then; Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Silver Charm come to mind.

Another Triple Crown may just not be in cards. There has been numerous horses who have won two out of three in the series only to fall short in one of the legs based either on a bad trip in the Derby or losing a close finish in the Preakness. The Kentucky this year will be a 20-horse mess as it has been for the last decade or so. The Preakness usually exposes a weak Derby winner or vindication for a Derby favorite that endured a poor trip and the Belmont is a dirt marathon that trainers have forgotten how to train for.

From 1997 to 1999 there were three chances at racing’s crown jewel; Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic fell a combined 2 ¼ lengths short in the Belmont. Not counting the 2004 bid of Smarty Jones or the 2008 attempt by Big Brown, this time period of the drought was probably the best chance at seeing the sweep.

In 1997 Silver Charm was in a thirteen horse Derby field, which by 2011 standards seems like a small field for this race. Silver Charm had all but one of his main rivals in his crosshairs for the first mile of this race and passed them by the eighth pole and held off a hard charging Captain Bodgit. The Preakness that year was one for the ages, a three-horse charge to the line with Silver Charm digging in and defeating his southern California rival Free House and gamely denying Captain Bodgit. Touch Gold had a rough start and an overall bad trip, but finished a solid fourth not far behind the top three. The last leg was the one that did Silver Charm in. After battling Free House throughout the whole series he put away the rival gray and could not hold off the late charge of Touch Gold, who had an incident free trip around the Belmont oval.

Real Quiet was the lesser known half of the Baffert duo that made their way to Louisville in 1998, Indian Charlie was the favorite off his prosperous winter in California. Real Quiet put away his better known counterpart by mid stretch and held off Victory Gallop. The Preakness changed shape with the scratch of Coronado’s Quest, a talented but temperamental colt that skipped the Derby to avoid the circus atmosphere of the big race. Coronado’s Quest was the morning line favorite for the Preakness. Real Quiet won the race by two lengths over Victory Gallop, they both moved at the same time leaving the backstretch and going into the final turn. The 1998 Belmont is one of the better known renewals of this race. Desormeaux moved Real Quiet early and at one point Desormeaux had the colt in front by six lengths. Victory Gallop, piloted by Gary Stevens waited a little bit longer to make a bid for the win and it paid off with one of the closest finishes seen to decide the Triple Crown since the 1978 series.

Charismatic was a rags to riches story, available for a claim twice and won the first of many crowded Derby fields that had 19 horses with a clean trip while his counterparts had rough trips and lots of excuses going to Baltimore. Charismatic’s 31-1 upset did little to scare off the competition with a full field signed on to challenge with one notable scratch. Silverbulletday was entered and withdrawn after getting the wide 13 post, she won the Black Eyed Susan a day before the main event. Charismatic won by 1 ½ lengths over Menifee who was second to Charismatic in the Derby as well. With nine starts to that point in the year, a total of 16 races in his short career, and a stamina pedigree it seemed like he stood just as good a chance as the last two to win it all. Silverbulletday was entered in the Belmont Stakes and was the pace setter with Charismatic a close second before assuming the lead on the far turn and failing to hold off the charge of a pair of longshots, Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse.

A triple crown winner has been sought after since the glory days of the 70’s when there were three in one decade, those three are still revered as the some of the greatest to ever set foot on a racetrack. The desire to see a horse pull the hat trick has caused the public and media to latch onto horses that for some reason or another just couldn’t pull the feat off. Big Brown had a bad hoof going into the Triple Crown and it was exposed at the wrong time, Smarty Jones was a victim of his success with jockeys putting a big bull’s eye on Stewart Elliot’s back, and Funny Cide had to deal with a rejuvenated Empire Maker.

The chances of seeing a Triple Crown winner ranks up there with losing with a straight flush in poker. Trainers have a different mindset from their counterparts from thirty to forty years ago and horses have less stamina in their pedigree than three decades ago thanks to farms breeding for speed and juvenile brilliance. If a horse does sweep these races in the near future it may be a bigger accomplishment than it was 33 years ago because of the last two statements, although the chances of it actually happening are slim.

The Retro Files: Aqueduct infield pictures from 2010

2011-04-19T05:00:00.004-04:00

Recently I posted photos of the paddock and trackside near the finish line area at Aqueduct (seen here). Last year around this time I managed to get out to the infield and had a camera with me, the rest as they say is history.

Obstructed view

Remnants of the old Aqueduct tote boards/current tool shed

Tote board

The grandstand was still around back then.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Uncle Mo

2011-04-16T18:30:00.004-04:00

Nickname: Mr. Softee

First Impression: He certainly looks exposed after that Wood Memorial.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: His last race was just a speed bump and the loss will toughen him up

The case against: He probably has some distance limitations like Favorite Trick did. He hasn’t had a tough work schedule since his Breeders’ Cup win. Other top prospects have been solidifying their postions while Mo was vacationing at Palm Meadows.

Thanks Pletcher, nice training job. If a heavy favorite loses it should finish off the board, not a meager third saving the bridge jumpers from an embarrassing loss. In addition to that Uncle Mo losing destroyed the pick fours and pick sixes that had him singled. Imagine being alive in a pick six that started with 8/1 and 6/1 winners and having what looks like a mortal lock as the single. It feels good, right? The 1/10 shot runs like a 10/1 plug, not such a great feeling anymore. The pick six players had to have played those tickets off site, because the lack of property damage and no rioting at Aqueduct after that loss with so much money riding on one horse is astounding. There has been rioting at Yonkers Raceway for less.

For selfish reasons I wanted to see Uncle Mo win the Wood. Not because I had any money on him, but for the reason that it would be a nice finish to this series. It is like a writer at Game 6 of the 1986 World Series cheering for the Red Sox to win for the reason that the article they wrote was completed; a change in the outcome will cause massive changes close to a deadline. Instead of a strong finish to this series now it will limp to the finish line like Uncle Mo, thanks Pletcher.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Stay Thirsty

2011-04-16T17:30:00.002-04:00

First Impression: His Florida Derby was nothing great, but he beat the Wood Memorial winner in the Gotham.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: There has been a long and storied history of lesser known stable-mates outrunning their more famous counterparts in the Derby. Real Quiet won instead of Indian Charlie, Thunder Gulch was victorious over Timber Country, and Sir Barton got to the wire first instead of Billy Kelly. Who am I kidding, instead of beating around the bush on this one I might as well come out and say it. BET THE HOME EQUITY LOAN ON THIS ONE, HAVE WE NOT SEEN THIS OUTCOME BEFORE? LOOK ABOVE, THAT IS THE BEST HISTORY STATISTIC YOU WILL SEE LEADING TO THIS DERBY. DOSAGE? MORE LIKE NODOZ, THE ABOVE STATISTIC IS ONE THAT YOU CAN TURN INTO YOUR OWN PERSONAL ATM.

The case against: Only two races with his most recent being a poor showing and got his season started in early March, sounds slightly familiar.

The winner of the Gotham as not had a great recent history at all. Awesome Act was the “wise guy” horse in the Derby last year and that did not end well. I Want Revenge won the Wood Memorial and hasn’t been the same since his injury leading up to the Derby. The last horse that went on to any significance after their win in the Gotham was Red Bullet back in 2000, when he stunned the racing world by defeating Fusaichi Pegasus in the Preakness. Stay Thristy looked good in his layoff comeback victory with his first victory around two turns and shaking off the rust of a long break. Third off the layoff with some foundation and the recent poor effort will certainly offer some value.

No Mo

2011-04-10T19:00:00.002-04:00

In his last prep for the 2011 Kentucky Derby did not look the part of being an invincible running machine. Most of the talk up in the Manhattan Terrace was "how good is this horse" and "the only hard test for this will be the Belmont Stakes". It appears now that this horse is just as good as his competition and the hard test for this horse will probably be his subsequent starts against the rest of his generation.

Great horses lose, Native Dancer lost his Derby by a decreasing margin and Seattle Slew was defeated after a superb effort in the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup. A great horse may lose, but most of the time they still hold that look that they were still much the best in defeat. The way Uncle Mo lost did not give that impression at all, he got to an early lead where John Velazquez controlled the early tempo and saw his margin in front diminish steadily through the duration of the stretch run.

The last time a juvenile champion ran in the Wood Memorial was 2008, War Pass was coming off of a poor effort in his seasonal debut in March at the Tampa Bay Derby. He led the pack until inside the eighth pole only to succumb to Tale of Ekati. The parallels between War Pass and Uncle Mo have been uncanny as well. Both ran big races in the Champagne and Juvenile, both waited until March for their first start of the year, and both looked underwhelming in those starts.

Usually the case with these types of horses is they are checked on by a veterinarian or go through x-rays and find something wrong or amiss. They are then quickly retired and there is a stud deal quickly reached. It is cynical, but that seems to happen more often than not. The next four weeks have gotten a little bit more interesting with the recent downfall of the divisional champion.

Scenes from the Big A: The Wood Memorial

2011-04-10T18:30:00.000-04:00

The main event of the spring Aqueduct meet is the Wood Memorial, this year the storyline was that this was the prep for the probable Derby favorite Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo went from probable favorite to one of many contenders for sought after prize in about one minute and fifty one seconds.

NYRA or the concession company that works with NYRA had a drink special that was called the Uncle Mojito, more than likely this will be the only time you see this drink special offered after today's performance.

With a an upset like this you figure some fans would take this loss a bit harder than others based on their financial stake in the outcome or other reasons than that. Apparently one fan had a lot riding on Uncle Mo on Saturday.

Scenes from the Big A: Ongoing Construction

2011-04-10T18:15:00.000-04:00

Aqueduct's grandstand has been undergoing a transformation from a place that hosted thousands of racing fans into a casino since November and is expected to open its doors sometime during August or September.

The Backyard (January 2010)

Current:

A sign of the times:

Former site of the flea (more like bedbugs!) market and where patrons used to cut across to get to the track in a more expedient time.

Scenes from the Big A: Track side and the paddock area

2011-04-10T18:00:00.002-04:00

The current construction at Aqueduct is not the first time this track has had a face-lift. Back in the eighties the third floor restaurant was added and around a decade ago the paddock was altered. The original paddock had the stalls on the opposite side of where they are now and the winner's circle was located close to track side on the grandstand side. Also, the paddock stands were not closed in like they are now. If you wanted to look at the horses before the race, you had to brave the elements to do so.

Aqueduct Saturday Stakes Racing Preview

2011-04-08T00:00:00.003-04:00

This weekend marks two milestones in the year that signify that spring is here, Keeneland runs its April meet loaded with stakes action and the return of grade one racing to New York. Keeneland has gone from a massive speed favoring dirt surface and closer friendly turf course to a racecourse with a pair of surfaces that tend to lean towards horses that have closer tendencies. That being said, it does make handicapping that meet easier, just avoid 90% of the card and play the featured race of the day.

Comely Stakes

This race was moved from a week past the Wood Memorial to the day of the Wood. Ruffian and a few other Hall of Fame fillies have won this race. It is now a grade three that annually features a variation of Florida shippers that have had minor stakes or allowance victories before shipping up and the grizzled runners that have wintered in New York.

Royal Sighting broke her maiden by twelve last out and is immediately stepped into a stakes race. This horse had an unusual path to the winners’ circle in her most recent start. Patrick Kelly’s horses usually drop back early and make a sustained bid in the later stages of the race, Evening Attire did this and so did Naughty New Yorker. Royal Sighting went immediately to the lead and never looked back, in previous starts she was fifth or further back in the early stages before trying to make a run.

Bay Shore Stakes

This race used to be a stepping stone towards the Wood Memorial. Secretariat won this race in his three year old debut and then went on to the Gotham and the Wood Memorial before Triple Crown immortality. Other notable winners of this event are Lost in the Fog, Gulch, Bold Forbes, and Damascus. That is quite a roll call for a race that is a purse downgrade from being a listed stakes race.

J J’s Lucky Train tried his luck at the two turn stakes races at Aqueduct in January and February with a pair of second place finishes. He won a seven furlong race at Laurel on February 26th where he dueled all the whole way with Bandbox, who went on to win the Miracle Wood Stakes in March at Laurel.

Steve Assmussen won this race with J Be K in 2008 after a poor showing at Fair Grounds. This year Justin Phillip is Assmussen’s entry and he had a weak showing in two stakes down in the bayou. Justin Phillip is going to have to be at his best to win from the rail with other speeds lined up outside of him though.

Carter Handicap

The first half of the Repole double is entered here with Calibrachoa, I set the over/under on that double at six dollars on a two dollar wager. Have You Ever is once again entered as a rabbit to ensure a quick pace for his stable-mate. Apriority probably will take a lot of action here as well, he had a monster race last out running three seconds faster than the average time for the distance. Morning Line has had some tough luck in recent starts with second place finishes in the Donn Handicap and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after doing much of the grunt work on the front end. From the looks of it, this race will have a swift early pace.

Wood Memorial

Uncle Mo will probably go off 1/9 here. In terms of value when betting on favorites, there is next to none. With a horse like Uncle Mo, getting 3/5 would be a mixed blessing. Getting sixty cents on the dollar on a horse that usually goes off insanely short and has yet to taste defeat means that you are getting a slight edge on the pari-mutuel competition. On the negative side it also could be a foreboding sign of a negative outcome, so you see why betting favorites is a difficult proposition.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Dialed In

2011-04-04T05:00:00.000-04:00

Nickname: Ice Box Jr.

First Impression: A deep closing three years old colt trained by Zito, this seems familiar.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: Usually the pace of the Derby is extremely fast and horses who come off the pace fare well in this type of scenario.

Case Against: The same tactics that give Ice Box an edge over his front running rivals also could work against him. The Derby has more traffic tie ups than midtown Manhattan during the afternoon.

Zito once again has a Derby runner after being prominent, but not winning any of the three spring classics last year. This one is probably better than the contemporary that he mirrors, Ice Box. Last year Ice Box went into the Derby with maiden and an upset win in the Florida Derby. Dialed In has three decent efforts to his name this year and a start at two for some classic foundation.

If Uncle Mo doesn’t make the race he could end up being the favorite. If the juvenile champ does run, then Dialed In will probably be one of the commonly used alternatives to Uncle Mo. The key with the closer types is the works leading up to the race. If a closer shows bullets or fast works leading up to a race, the horse is ready to run a big one.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Twice the Appeal

2011-04-03T05:00:00.006-04:00

First Impression: Didn’t Mine That Bird run in the Sunland Derby race two years ago?

The case for this horse winning the Derby: That last two dollars in my wallet won’t spend itself.

Case against: This race consisted of third stringers and Astrology coming off a November layoff.

The Sunland Derby is on par with the Delta Downs Jackpot as a grade three cash grab to secure a spot in the most famous race on the calendar year for racing. Usually around this time of the year there is a call for reform to the entry system for the Derby, it is usually made by people who want to see a certain horse entered with the though that the gate is not complete without that particular horse entered. Eddington comes to mind for this example.

Last year Drosselmeyer’s fans were bristled by the fact that he did not have sufficient earnings to make the field, tough luck. At this time of the year it is about survival of the fittest, chances are that if you don’t have the dough you missed a chance or two to make up the ground on rivals in the earnings department. In addition to that, there is a field limit of twenty so there are plenty of spots available.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Pants On Fire

2011-04-03T05:00:00.003-04:00

First Impression: Where did that last race come from?

The case for this horse winning the Derby: This prep race is so overdue for a winner.

Case against: He got away with an easy cadence tracking an astronomical longshot early on and just had enough left in the tank to hold off a recent maiden winner Nehro. The favorite, Mucho Macho Man had a wide trip and faltered late. The highly touted Elite Alex was marooned in post 12 after scratching out a week earlier in the Rebel because of a bad post draw.

The intrepid eleven winners of the Louisiana Derby who have attempted the Derby (1997-2010): Mission Impazzible, Fresian Fire, Pyro, Circular Quay, High Limit, Wimbledon, Peace Rules, Fifty Stars, Kimberlite Pipe, Comic Strip, Crypto Star.

Inner Dirt MVP

2011-03-20T15:00:00.004-04:00

The Aqueduct Inner Track meet is nearing its end, much to the delight of more than a few people. I guess it is a case of different strokes for different folks. The inner track meet has the distinction of being a long grinding meet for gamblers and horses alike; it is difficult to string across a sizeable winning streak during this time of year for many.

Inherit The Gold exemplified himself with his consistent brilliance over course of the last four months with a solid four race winning streak that could very well parlay into an appearance in the million dollar Charles Town Classic. He could also stay local with an attempt at glory in the grade three Excelsior Stakes in April on the Aqueduct main track.

His latest victory may have been his most impressive, he faced off against a tough rival in Yawanna Twist who was toting 118 pounds to Inherit The Gold’s top weight of 124 pounds. Yawanna Twist ran against the best of his generation last year, which was capped off with a gutsy fourth place finish in the Preakness versus the best of his generation Lookin at Lucky.

Inherit The Gold has more than a few options after the conclusion of the inner track meet, which he excelled at this year and in the past. He is a proven two turn professional and Monmouth has many lucrative two turn races that are run during the course of their upcoming meet. He also has a win or two over the Belmont oval going the one turn route distances. The future is bright for this gelding after a prosperous winter in New York.

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!

2011-03-16T19:00:00.002-04:00

After Uncle Mo’s rousing comeback to the races this last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, Repole Stable and the soft serve ice cream giant Mr. Softee have reached an agreement to do a cross promotion in the upcoming months. Much like the one that IEAH Stable and UPS had during Big Brown’s vaunted attempt at the elusive Triple Crown. When Mr. Softee representatives were reached for comment they said, ”We are very proud of signing an agreement with a group of sports owners that exemplify a great soft schedule en route to a big event, much like our great soft serve frozen treats.”

Team Repole's meeting with the Mr. Softee people. Not pitcured, a man with an ice cream cone for a head.

Here at Powercap, we pride ourselves on getting the inside scoop on these sorts of stories and we have an early draft design of the Uncle Mo Mr. Softee truck.

The Pletcher Triple

2011-03-06T19:00:00.000-05:00

New York's first big day of the year had Todd Pletcher winning three out of the four stakes carded, basically picking up where he left off last year. Pletcher has taken up the throne that Lukas vacated in the late 90's. Got a stakes race? Pletcher has a horse for that race. Fancy Suits? Check. Well heeled clients with deep pockets? Check. Gray hair? Check. All Pletcher is missing is a pair of shades, he probably already has the Bentley.

Fred Capossela Stakes

The winner faced Soldat in his previous start back in September, Sensational Slam looked no worse for the wear from that layoff. He sat off the pace and won with ease.

Tom Fool Handicap

The first half of the Repole Stable chalk double was captured by Calibrachoa, who could have been had for $40,000 back in November. He has now reeled off three straight stakes victories with the major sprint stakes races on the horizon. It will be interesting to see how this horse stands up to the class of the division from this point on.

Gotham Stakes

The public backed Stay Thirsty and they were not disappointed. This horse probably had a tougher comeback race than what Uncle Mo will encounter considering the circumstances. Stay Thirsty had not won past six furlongs and November layoff was what kept him from being a prohibitive favorite. Chances are the connections of the Gotham winner will ship this horse to Hawthorne or another track with a big purse and a thin field in order to pad the graded stakes earnings.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two

2011-02-24T23:45:00.002-05:00

The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.

1. Uncle Mo

The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.

2. To Honor and Serve

The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.

3. Dialed In

There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?

4. Mucho Macho Man

An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.

5. The Factor

One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.

Derby Winner?

2011-02-21T22:30:00.003-05:00

This is an auspicious first time start. The first sub 109 six furlong race since 2005 at Fairgrounds. This one has the movement to be a great one. Combine they with top connections and graded stakes is just a matter of time. With today's training style I don't think the triple crown is out of the question for Bind. Uncle Mo better be on his game when he tangles with this one.

Trip To Aqueduct (Dresden Downs)

2011-02-15T02:26:00.013-05:00

In post OTB New York City NYRA is providing free bus service from former OTB locations to the venerable Big-A. On the warmest Saturday in ages -downright balmy at 35F- I decided to take advantage of NYRA's generosity and use the free bus from midtown Manhattan to the Big-A.

This is a bus like no other; it is like someone returned from a time warp and dragged a busload of working class NY residents from 1982 with them. In a city increasingly becoming a Bauhaus playground for the wheel-heeled this crowd was a quite the contrast from the typical mid-town Manhattan crowd. Almost all on-board were working class men in their 50s to 80s. On the way back one of them was so tanked he fell over on the way to his seat. Perhaps it is not a coincidence that this working class element has slowly been disappeared from NYC and now one of their favorite haunts has also been shuttered.

Aqueduct itself looks like a post WWII site in Dresden after absorbing the wrath of the Allied war machine. Conducting a sporting event at a venue in this state of disrepair is a surreal experience. The entire third floor grandstand and apron is shuttered while festooned with a large lot of construction/demolition debris. Would ball sports play in a stadium that looks like this? Our observations make it obvious that the casino construction is far from ready; the slot playing blue-hairs are going to have to wait much longer for their VLTs.

A few pics from the trip:

Scenes from Belmont

2011-02-05T17:00:00.001-05:00

Last week Greg went down south to Gulfstream (lucky) and I trekked out to the Belmont simulcast. Mostly for two reasons, the first was you can only go to Aqueduct so many times in a month before the charm wears off (for other people it is one trip in a lifetime) and curiosity, Belmont's clubhouse was opened to take up the slack that the NYC OTB left behind. Apparently the heating for big sandy's clubhouse wasn't quite up to snuff so NYRA had to bring in some kerosene heaters to keep the betttors warm and cozy.

Ever wonder what they do with the Secretariat statue in the paddock during the winter? Wonder no more, much like a museum exhibit it is boxed up and preserved when not on display for the public.

It must be a massive operation to get the odds board ready for winter inactivity as evidenced below.

Belmont's grandstand is big, cold, and empty during the winter. Every once in a while a politician or newspaper editorial raises the point that Aqueduct's property should be sold to developers and Belmont be made into a primary racing center for the year in New York. Just from touring the closed off grandstand this would not be wise. The heating issue is the primary reason, the surface change over to a winterized surface or building an inner dirt surface inside the turf course is another issue, and the track maintenance of this massive oval during the brutal winter months would probably be much more than what they are spending at Aqueduct right now.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five

2011-01-31T00:01:00.004-05:00

Almost every racing website has a columnist or two that ranks the Derby hopefuls leading up to the event. This is our attempt to capitalize on the trend not by saying the ranked horses are the best of the group, but by saying they will somehow defect out of the Kentucky Derby or fall short of expectations.

1. Uncle Mo

The champion juvenile and winter book favorite for the big race. Pletcher is waiting until March to start this one in the Tampa Bay Derby, the last two year old champ to do that was War Pass. There are other parallels with War Pass and Uncle Mo as well, both completed the Champagne-Juvenile sweep and both seem to have the same career trajectory. War Pass was lightly raced at two with only four starts on his record and Uncle Mo went to post three times last year. More good news for Uncle Mo’s backers too, the last three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners did not make it to the Derby.

2. To Honor and Serve

The Remsen to Kentucky path has not been one of success since Thunder Gulch pulled off the trick in 1994. Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor, and Buddy’s Saint went into their three year old campaigns as hot horses for the Derby only to be sidelined before the main event took place. The runner-up in the Remsen, Mucho Macho Man returned to service in the Holy Bull only to gets his doors blown off by Dialed In as well.

3. Boys At Tosconova

This horse was intended to make his debut this weekend in the Holy Bull, but that was called off because Dutrow did not like how his horse looked going into the race. Probably a wise move on the part of Dutrow, not a good sign for a three year old early in the season though. The pedigree on this one seems to be a bit of a wash, Officer is the sire which probably means that nine furlongs is his limit and Coronado’s Quest is on the dam’s side of the pedigree, which is a decent stamina influence. This horse is a question mark with four legs. Also of note on this horse:

At Horse Racing Nation they are advertising Uncle Mo merchandise on the page of Boys At Toscanova, not a lot of respect being doled out for this horse.

4. Dialed In

A Kentucky Derby prep season without Zito is something that doesn’t happen often. His whole stable is centered on having horses entered in the three year old classics and when that doesn’t happen his year is kind of shot. Had fun losing money on Ice Box in the Derby and Belmont last year? Well this is your chance to get more of the same punishment, this horse has the same type of running style as Ice Box and got a win earlier in the season at Gulfstream than Ice Box did. Andrew Beyer also penned that if this horse won the Holy Bull that it would make the prep season much more interesting. Beyer was right on something, that may be a sign of the apocalypse.

5. Tapizar

Not only included here to defeat all claims of having an east coast bias, but also because this is the first three year old in a long time that I think may turn into something special. Twice now he has outrun other stakes horses on final time, on November 27 his maiden victory was faster than the two mile and a sixteenth stakes races that took place and his win last out was faster than a stakes race for four year olds on the same day.

So you may be asking me why is he on a list filled with horses that you think may be flops and fizzle out of the picture for the Kentucky Derby? Because the last horse I had this type of notion on was Repent, he got injured after finishing second to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby and lost subsequent starts in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Gulfstream Trip Report

2011-01-30T02:01:00.005-05:00

Finally had enough of 7.5K claimers running next to 7.5 foot tall snow berms in 7.5 degrees. The antidote to cold weather and cheap racing is a trip to 75 degree Gulfstream Park. The weather was much warmer, the horses much classier and there is no snow. However Gulfstream is not a regular track; it is cut from an entirely new cloth. It really is cut from many clothes. It is like a dozen market research analysts got together and combined the best of Las Vegas, the highlights of sunbelt shopping malls with a modern horse racing venue. What we have is a venue that tries to be all things to all people. Sometimes it works other times it is has a confused identity.

From Power Cap

This has been mentioned umpteen times in other reviews of Gulstream but I will have to say it again. The grandstand is tiny. Like Gary Coleman tiny. There are only three rows of seats. Other areas of the track are also sized down. It seems the designers studied venues like Belmont "big empty" Park and judged that reduced on-track attendance calls for a new venue. Gulfstream is like a big house with many small rooms. The grandstand is smaller along with the stretch area and the simulcast areas. All of this partitioning makes the place seems crowded and vibrant; even on Friday the rail was shoulder to shoulder when the on-track crowd was small.

From Power Cap

The walking ring is clearly meant to be the focal point for the entire facility. It is a beautiful space surrounding a fountain that was clearly inspired by the Bellagio casino Las Vegas. The walking ring is first thing most people will see when they enter the racetrack area. This is not a typical racetrack and Gulfstream throws a curveball here. The saddling paddock is inside the building in a long tunnel away from the crowd. For the first ten minutes of the paddock time the horses are away from the crowd. Someone out there somewhere must hate this but it seemed reasonable. Once the field is saddled they make their appearance to the crowd.

From Power Cap

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One nice thing about the walking ring is that it is surrounded by a balcony on the second and third floors affording a great view of the horses. However seating is limited. Adjacent to the walking ring is the "Gulfstream Village" mall. Included are upscale typical American mall stores and restaurants. About a third of the stores are still vacant. However I enjoyed dinner at the "Yard House" restaurant on Friday night and it was very crowded even at 11Pm.

From Power Cap

The Mig interviews John Velasquez after winning the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf.

From Power Cap

There is still room for improvement on the race track end. The SAM machines are low end AMTOTE machines which are not intuitive like the United Tote machines in New York. The AMTOTE machine lack information like horse names, jockeys and trainers. The worst part is that these AMTOTE machines do not list scratched horses in multi-race wagers. So if you select a scratched horses in the 4th leg of your pick 6 the tote machine simply rejects your wager without any advice on which horses were scratched in which race. To make matters worse many machines were placed in the sun which rendered them completely useless due to glare. Seems like a manager needs to make sweep of this area and correct glare issues and replace the antiquated AMTOTE machines with something modern and user friendly. Most of these machines are used by seniors -even I struggled- they need something simple and intuitive like the machines NYRA uses. Please put together a seating task force and get more seats in this place.

From Power Cap

While the views from the walking were great -this is a reason why I took so many picks of the walking ring- there really was not any way for me to watch the races live. The view from the stretch rail was terrible; once again there was nowhere to sit. It seems like most players at Gulfstream opt for one of two Las Vegas racebook style simulcast rooms. While these simulcast rooms were as nice as any room in Las Vegas -they had hundreds of TVs- the point of going to Gulfstream is to be outside in the sun and not cooped up in a room.

From Power Cap

One of two simulcast rooms where every race anywhere in the world is available for wagering.

From Power Cap

Bellagio inspired fountain in the walking ring comes alive after the races are over with lights and a varied water spray routine.

From Power Cap

Another shot of the walking ring from the ground floor.

From Power Cap

The set where Jessica Pacheco and Ron Niccoletti film the paddock show between races. Perhaps the two best paddock analysts in the game.

From Power Cap

Huge toteboard provides information but blocks the view of the horses on the backstretch.

From Power Cap

The rail along the homestretch is packed with fans on Friday but once again nowhere to sit.

From Power Cap

Horses break from the gate in the sunshine millions classic.

From Power Cap

Horses thunder down the lane during the closing stages of the Sunshine Millions Classic won by 25-1 longshot Tackleberry.

From Power Cap

It looks like Kent Desormeaux rented a banner plane and had it fly above Gulfstream with this message "Honored to ride- Kent." Is there an innuendo around the track that Kent has too big an ego to care about riding anything less than a graded race? Why would he have to rent an airplane to tell everyone at the track that he is honored to ride? Seems like renting an airplane to tell people you are a humble hard worker is counter-intuitive and an expression of your inflated self worth.

From Power Cap

In the end Gulfstream is a venue that tries hard to be many things to many people. Perhaps too many market research analysts hand their hands in on the recipe and failed to give Gulfstream a clear identity as the venue is more like a hodgepodge of track/mall/casino than village. Still, there are enduring good points. The weather is great, the facility is clean, modern and the food is outstanding; especially for a racetrack. Considering the positives Gulfstream is worth a visit and a fine refuge from the 7.5 foot snow berms and 7.5 claimers.

Tale of the Tape, Saratoga vs. Aqueduct

2011-01-22T20:44:00.003-05:00

Note: This format has been ripped off and abused more often than any other form of writing out there. Time to pile on to a stale format!

These two tracks are far apart on the scales of amenities, aesthetics, and many other forms of judging a racing facility. Not to mention that Saratoga is only open for about forty days out of the year compared to the six months that Aqueduct is open. Aqueduct has a less than stellar reputation and Saratoga is put on scale with Wrigley Field and Lambeau Field in terms of “sports cathedrals”. Enough with the hyperbole though, it is time to get down to the brass tax.

Thoroughbred legends with stakes races named after them
Saratoga: Fourstardave
Aqueduct: Evening Attire
Advantage: Push, both are great. Although a conversation involving the two is a refresher from the two horses recently discussed for horse of the year.

Belmont Stakes winners who raced at the respective racetracks following their triumphs
Saratoga: Almost every horse that has won this race in the last 20 years
Aqueduct: Jazil
Advantage: Saratoga, anytime you have Jazil as a trump card in a debate it is an automatic loss.

Marquee Event
Saratoga: Travers Stakes
Aqueduct: Wood Memorial (spring), Cigar Mile (fall)
Advantage: Saratoga, the Travers seems to produce a close finish almost every year. The winner of the Wood usually blows the field out and the Cigar Mile has that Breeders Cup hangover feel.

Crowd size after the feature race
Aqueduct: Still there waiting for the get out race
Saratoga: Nonexistent
Advantage: Aqueduct; say what you will about patrons who attend the racing at Aqueduct, but they are a dedicated bunch.

Loaded racing cards
Aqueduct: Thanksgiving weekend, Gotham stakes day, and Wood Memorial day.
Saratoga: Any given racing card
Advantage: Saratoga, although with the extended meets over the last few years the racing quality has been watered down a bit.

Surrounding neighbors
Aqueduct: Chop shops, dive bars, KFC knockoffs, and an airport
Saratoga: The Whitneys and the Racing Hall of Fame
Advantage: Aqueduct, shockingly enough. Above the chop shops there is an old LIRR right of way that connected Rockaway to Queens Boulevard.

Usual patrons
Aqueduct: Taxi cab drivers, construction workers, and trainers who grind out winners at 8% on a yearly basis
Saratoga: Millionaires well to do trainers, and tourists
Advantage: Aqueduct, their crowd is more entertaining.

Getting to the place from the greater NY metropolitan area
Aqueduct: At the most, hour and a half to two hours by car.
Saratoga: Usually two and a half to three hours depending on your location.
Advantage: Aqueduct, not to mention that NYC transit also is conveniently near by with bus and subway service.

Final Score
4-3 Aqueduct, with a big closing kick. Saratoga has its charms, but it wears off fast with peak hotel rates for that area, travel time, and grinding out tough cards throughout the meet. I’m sure I’ll catch flak for posting this, oh well.

NYRA Rewards video feed update

2011-01-22T15:30:00.005-05:00

Live video is now available for tracks other than the Big A, the cogs of progress are moving forward. The next logical step for the wagering platform is to pick up the feeds from the premiere tracks such as Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

All in the name of progress

2011-01-20T18:02:00.005-05:00

Here are a few shots from a visit to the Big A on January 17th, all taken from the vantage point of the second floor clubhouse owners boxes section. The demolition/renovation of the nearly 50 year old racetrack is taking shape.

The contractor has set up a perimeter fence surrounding the project form the grandstand entrance to the divide between the grandstand and the clubhouse. Negating all shortcut exits that could be made by cutting across the racetrack apron to the grandstand turnstile to make it across the parking lot to the Q37.

Steiner Sports was the memorabilia company that picked apart Yankee Stadium during the demolition process. If there was a market for racetrack memorabilia, this place would be Fort Knox right now.

More of the carnage, hopefully they update some of the clubhouse side of the plant. The second floor windows still has old signage in clear view. The bank of windows to the left near the owner's box entrance still has GULFSTREAM hanging above its windows. A relic from the days when simulcast wagering had its own bay of windows.

David Cohen Earning Respect

2011-01-09T05:23:00.001-05:00

When things went wrong in paddock before Saturday's 6th race David Cohen took things into his own hands.

Emergency medical technicians and other medical personnel based in two ambulances at the track did not respond in a timely fashion to calls to tend to jockey Junior Alvarado, who was kicked in the groin and lower abdomen by his mount, Starlantic, prior to the running of the sixth race. Alvarado lay writhing in pain in the paddock before jockey David Cohen took it upon himself to carry Alvarado - wrapped in a horse blanket - into the jockeys’ room.

“He was on the ground shaking cold, the ground is frozen cold,” Cohen said. “No one came to his aid. I got one of the assistant trainers to put their horse blanket over him. No one responded to any calls over the radio. I had to pick him up and bring him into the room so he would be warm. He actually ended up going into shock when he went into the room.”

Sunday Pedigree Special

2011-01-09T04:07:00.003-05:00

An old favorite mare of mine has a maiden starting tomorrow in Aqueduct race 4. Wind In My Sails is from a line of winning hard knocking claimers. Here is a bit about her dam;

Breezethruthetrees - [88 by Big Spruce out of Chiming Jet] Raced by Cedar Meadow and was stakes placed in the Villager. “On this rock we built our farm.” While we apologize for the mixed biblical reference, we make no apologies for her role as “grand dam of Cedar Meadow.” Not only did she win twice at Aqueduct retiring with earnings of $49,530, she has produced 9 foals of racing age which have won a total of 39 races and earned over $600,000. These include: Secret Breeze [NYRA allowance winner of over $113,000], Chute the Breeze [winner at 3, 4, and 6 at Aqueduct, Belmont, Finger Lakes, Penn National, and Mountaineer of 9 races and over $160,000], Breeze On, a winner at 3, 4, and 5 of over $100,000, Peconic Breeze [allowance winner of $100,000+ and 14 races through 2000], Icicle Charlie [NY allowance winner of over $70,000], Indian Wells Kenny [4 wins at 4 at Aqueduct and Philadelphia], Kipling's Breeze [allowance winner in Texas], and Free As A Breeze.

With the racing at Aqueduct it looks like Wind in My Sails will be able to upset this field. This filly is from a family of winners. Not only does she cutback in distance but she is trained over the track.

Neither of them deserve the honors

2010-12-30T22:16:00.004-05:00

For those blissfully living underneath a rock since late October I am referring to the "great" horse of the year debate that has been going on since the finish of the Classic. During the Christmas break on both of the cable racing channels it was all they would talk about. It as is if any other racing has not occurred since this time and that was the last race of the year that anybody saw.

Neither camp should get horse of the year based on one fact, they cancel each other out. Their negatives and positives as far as racetrack efforts are equal. The negative on Zenyatta is her loss in the Classic, a race she was prepped up all year long for by way of winning weak grade one races. The positive is her record though, one loss the whole year and doing what has been told of her no matter the competition or task.

Blame also has one loss on the year, the race he ran in before the Classic. In early October Haynesfield threw a monkey wrench in Blame's unbeaten season in spectacular fashion. This loss has been a sticking point to Zenyatta's supporters, their reasoning is that if this horse is a beast he completes the year unbeaten. Zenyatta's loss kind of cancels out Blame's loss though, both had only one loss on the year. Blame has also been faulted on his competition, which kind of mirrors what detractors of the mare have been using for two years. So once again both debating points are rendered null and void for being common. Blame's supporters counter that he won the races he was entered no matter the competition, once again offsetting the positive point made by the opposing side. So as you can see we are at an impasse.

Which brings me to option C in this pointless war of words, vote outside the box. Yes, you can! Vote for Stormy's Majesty. He has brought joy and riches who have seen his talent and he will be racing next year so you can see him defend his hard earned title. Next year's class of handicap horses are shaking in their shoes at the sight of this hulking monster of horseflesh, mark my words! I implore the eclipse voters to use the slightly edited ballot below that was not crudely changed by way of liquid paper and send it in to the proper authorities. A vote for Stormy's Majesty is a vote for the future!

2010 Year in Review: Win and you’re retired division

2010-12-26T17:00:00.003-05:00

This year marked the second straight year the Derby favorite would miss the race due to a career threatening injury. Eskendereya was on top of everybody’s Derby prospect list after an authoritative win in the Fountain of Youth and fortified that assumption with a run away win at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial. His injury was a sign of things to come, almost every winner of a major three year old stakes is now at stud.

This year’s Derby hero sure didn’t look like a Derby winner in his three starts following his May 1st triumph under the twin spires. After Eskendereya was knocked out with injury, the possibility of Pletcher going another year without that coveted victory in this signature race looked very likely. History repeated itself for the third time though when Borel rode the rail to victory on Super Saver who loved Churchill and the mud. The Preakness was another race that Pletcher wanted to add to his lengthy resume and Super Saver looked like he was in with a chance with three furlongs left only to weaken throughout the stretch to finish eighth. Pletcher gave Super Saver some time off to get ready for the Haskell, this was Lookin at Lucky’s coming out party though and the Pletcher star was caught for third by a resurgent First Dude. The Travers was four weeks later and the shine was completely off Super Saver at that point, he was not particularly well bet in this race and ran a distant tenth. On October 28th the Derby victor was retired not accomplishing much after his successful run on the first Saturday in May. Sea Hero and Giacomo accomplished more than Super Saver did and raced at four. Sea Hero won the Travers and raced at four in turf stakes races for a majority of that season. Giacomo won a grade two stakes at four at Del Mar and finished out his career a decent fourth in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Super Saver retired with a minor injury that he could have returned from with some rest and relaxation.

Lookin at Lucky was the last of the major retirements and this happened after he finished fourth in the Classic. It appeared as if he would make a return to the races at four where he would have the chance to dominate a depleted division. Most years it would take three or four wins in major races to clinch divisional honors, this year it only took two. Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness in less than convincing fashion and came back in the Haskell to dominate a lot of the same foes he struggled to hold off at Baltimore. Baffert has had a good amount of high quality three-year-old runners and not a lot of them have made it back to the racetrack for a four-year-old season. The last one that comes to mind is Congaree who was a dominant force at Aqueduct, before that he had Real Quiet and Silver Charm come back to compete after their three-year-old season. Silver Charm won the San Fernando, Strub, Dubai World Cup, Kentucky Cup Classic, Goodwood, Clark, and San Pasqual, from ages four to five. The breeding market gets another son of Smart Strike to breed to now though, a field that includes Curlin, English Channel, Papa Clem, and Square Eddie.

What do Afleet Express and Line of David have in common? They both retired shortly after wins in important stakes races. Line of David shocked the betting public by winning the Arkansas Derby over Dublin and Super Saver, he was no where near the winner in the Derby and a stud deal was reached in June. Afleet Express won the Travers and was retired on November 10th, ten days before the announcement of Lookin at Lucky’s retirement.

Drosselmeyer is back in training after an injury that was detected after his victory in the Belmont Stakes. Probably the only reasons he is not standing at stud are that the market for breeding to Belmont winners is not there and his stable mate Super Saver is in the breeding shed for 2011. Drosselmeyer ran in a Belmont that did not feature a winner of either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. The last time this happened was 2000 when Commendable wired the Belmont field. Commendable did not win a race after his Belmont score. The only difference is there is no Albert the Great or Tiznow running next year like Commendable had in his class.

Santa Anita Boycott Will be a Failure

2010-12-26T04:04:00.004-05:00

These price conscious players are like Bigfoot or the Loch Ness monster; often spoken about but never seen. The group that is advocating a boycott of Santa Anita is unfortunately not going to make a dent in Santa Anita's business. The small uptick in action generated by a takeout reduction can never account for the loss in revenue generated by the takeout reduction itself.

Before you go off and launch into ad hominem mode I am only speaking from experience; with data collected the hard way. There was a time when I used to play Sam Houston solely for the low takeout (12%) pick 3. If some working class guy in New York is spending his evenings working over Sam Houston there must of been many more players like me. I was shocked to see the trifecta pools (25% takeout) at Sam Houston were 2 to 3 times bigger than the pick 3. The Sam Houston pick 3 was a great value; yet it was completely ignored by the public. The public preferred the fast action of the trifecta even if the cost was over 100% more. This was not the only failure of low takeout wagers offered by racetracks to entice players to look at their tracks. The low takeout pick 4 at Ellis was failure. The low takeout offered at Laurel last year was unfortunatly a failure too. This boycott of Santa Anita is destined to be an inadequate effort.

The vast majority of horseplayers are expressing a compulsive vice when they visit the windows; tracks make money by feeding this vice. There is no reason for track management keep hitting their heads against the wall expecting a different result chasing a nonexistent demographic of price conscious players. The demographic is too small to matter. If you want to reach the price conscious crowd publish some coupons in the Sunday paper. Tracks make money by having a large horse population and carding big fields.

2010 Year In Review: King of the tough beats

2010-12-23T18:00:00.001-05:00

Zito has had more tough beats in big events this year than anyone else I can think of in the last ten years. In almost all of the marquee three-year-old events he had horses garner place or show in excruciating fashion. His year started out well enough; once again he had a shed row loaded with newly minted Derby prospects, including a privately purchased Jackson Bend. Jackson Bend was one of the hot Derby prospects up until February when he had his doors blown off by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth. Ice Box took over Jackson’s spot as the top Zito prospect with a fast closing victory in the Florida Derby in March.

The Kentucky Derby is not a race known for an abundance of great trips. Ice Box finished second, yet was considered by many to have run the best race that day due to the fact he had to mount two bids with 3/8 of a mile left to run after getting shut off the first time. The usually consistent Jackson Bend threw in a clunker in the Derby finishing well off the board with the only viable excuse being the sloppy surface. A week later at Belmont it looked like Zito was loaded for the Belmont Stakes when Fly Down blew away the opposition in the Dwyer that included Drosselmeyer, a highly touted Mott trainee.

Back in 1996 Zito had Louis Quatorze turn a poor Derby run into a Preakness victory, no such luck this year. Jackson Bend back after his non effort in the Derby looked like he was going to win during a couple of points in the stretch run just to come up short finishing third. Lookin at Lucky repelled Jackson Bend and First Dude made a comeback to capture second after setting the pace. Jackson Bend has had three starts since this race versus competition of grade three horses or less and has finished fourth, fifth, and sixth in those efforts.

The Belmont looked like Zito was going to get a win in the classics, he had the top two contenders lining up for this race. Ice Box skipped the second leg of the Triple Crown specifically for this race and Fly Down was lights out in his prep for the longest of the three races of the series. Ice Box never looked comfortable finishing eighth and Fly Down finished second less than a length by the same horse he beat in the Dwyer, Drosselmeyer. Mike Smith was on the winner as well adding a little more salt to the wound, Smith rode Jackson Bend in the first two legs of the triple crown.

The last big event for the three-year-olds before the weight for age races in the fall is the Travers. Zito came into this race with three entries, Ice Box, Fly Down, and Miner’s Reserve. Miner’s Reserve avoided the spring classics and ran well in allowance races leading up to the Jim Dandy, a prep for the Travers. Unfortunately for Miner’s Reserve he ran into a horse that also missed the Triple Crown races and was highly touted before missing the big races, A Little Warm. Miner’s Reserve set the pace and could not hold off the charge of A Little Warm. Much like the Jim Dandy in the Travers Miner’s Reserve got out to an early advantage and looked like he had a chance to pull a major upset as they turned into the stretch. He gave way inside the 3/16 pole and was passed by Afleet Express and Fly Down. In one of the tighter photo finishes in the history of the Travers Afleet Express came out the victor, Zito lost another close one. Afleet Express won the Pegasus in June defeating Jackson Bend in an upset.

Things looked like they were going to turn around in the fall when Morning Line won the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby on September 25 defeating a quality field that included First Dude and A Little Warm. The saying things get better before they get worse clearly did not apply here though. The Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile had some of the fastest fractions one will see for a flat mile and Morning Line was on the pace that went in 22.41, 44.94, and 1:09.44. He dueled Hurricane Ike, Vineyard Haven, and Tizway into defeat and had a clear advantage going into the last eighth of a mile. The Jerry Hollendorfer trained Dakota Phone was the biggest beneficiary of the rapid pace up front and picked off horses from the 3/4 pole to the stretch, moving from tenth up to third, and forcing a photo finish. If you read this far, it is no surprise who won and who lost the photo. Zito had a horse in the Classic though, unfortunately this Classic field had to be one of the toughest fields assembled in the 27-year history of this event. Fly Down, a multiple time tough beat made his march to the lead around the same time Zenyatta was kicking it into high gear, unfortunately he did not have the same acceleration as the champion mare. Fly Down finished third, three and a half lengths behind one of the greater stretch runs ever seen in this sport.

As it was said at the top, Zito has had a treasure trove of mind numbing defeats, I know regulars at Belmont and Aqueduct that don’t have this many tough beat stories as Zito has compiled this year. That being said, Fly Down looks like one of the top 4-year-old prospects along with Morning Line due to all the retirements of the big names in the 3-year-old and the handicap division. It may not take much to be dominant force in the older male division either. As far as silver linings go, that is not a bad one to have.

Would you look at that

2010-12-23T15:51:00.003-05:00

They are showing dark day simulcasting on the ghost of the OTB channel, this is faster progress than expected with regards to New York racing and simulcasting.

NYRA Video Streaming Approved in New York

2010-12-22T21:52:00.003-05:00

After four years the state finally approved streaming video. This was along drawn out battle that lasted longer than WWI. The reason for the delayed approval was the state protecting OTB's interest. The idea from Albany is that if New Yorkers can't watch NYRA at home they will be compelled to OTB parlors or watch the OTB channel. For some this was ridiculous as not every county in New York had an OTB or an OTB channel. These people were caught in the crossing fore between OTB and reason and ended up with access to only TVG if they were lucky to have satellite TV. This is the principle of might is right. OTB had the might in NY state and dictated the terms.

We sent letters three years ago to no avail, the only action or elected officals took was accepting kickbacks for the Aqueduct casino. Four years of no racing video and no real coverage in the press. Too bad it wasn't the Yankers or NFL, if the would have been front page news if video was blocked of those sports. It took the crisis shut down of NYCOTB to finally stream video in New York. Rushed, desperate and reactionary are adjectives that describe how how business is done in New York. With this odyssey under the bridge I look forward to booting up NYRA rewards and watching streaming video next time I play Aqueduct.

The week long nightmare is over

2010-12-16T15:18:00.008-05:00

No need to change the primary start-up channel from 71 to something else anymore. The in-home simulcast feed made a triumphant return today and there is talk about NYRA opening wagering teletheaters as a replacement to the shuttered NYC OTB locations.

Off track betting won't die without a fight though, it is still on the Time Warner Cable listings. Channel 71 will probably be listed as OTB on NYC TV long after the bankruptcy proceedings conclude.

Update, after Aqueduct's live program the blue screen of doom reappeared. Unfortunately, there is no after hours simulcast shown after the conclusion of racing from Aqueduct, hopefully they work towards rectifying this. Some live racing in the living room is better than none though.

NY Times is a Source of Disinformation

2010-12-14T10:22:00.006-05:00

As chief journalistic representative of a culture that supposedly has a love of diversity- the NY Times does a great job of proving otherwise. While the talking class drones on about a love of diversity- the esoteric truth is that this culture from top to bottom is racing towards homogeneity. The NY Times racing coverage affirms this truth. Niche sports like racing doesn't have any room in New York according to the Times "It is hard to shake a feeling that Aqueduct’s precious 192 acres in South Ozone Park, Queens, might be put to better use, perhaps for parks or for reasonably priced housing, which goodness knows the city sorely needs. " When the Times and the cultural masters are done manipulating opinions this world will be a one trick pony- horse racing will not be providing the pony.

While most can agree with that opinion that aqueduct is not a venue enjoyed by all the Times really goes off the rails when it becomes a medium for disinformation. "With the failed bookie operation known as the New York City Off-Track Betting Corporation forced to shut its doors, the numbers of horse players trooping to Aqueduct racetrack have swelled." NYCOTB was never a bookie operation, it was a parimutuel outlet- this is a huge difference in complexity and the nature of the operation.

If the New York Times is going to send a reporter to Aqueduct-- shouldn't he be informed? Why report these facts while taking them totally and completely out of context. OTB operated as a political patronage mill and was filled with inefficiency and mismanagement. OTB often acted against ( banning streaming in-home video for example) the best interest of the product. It was the fact that government corruption and ineptitude killed OTB; not the lack of appeal from the racing product. This is not clear in the piece as shows how reporting misinforms rather that informs.

While I have to agree that Aqueduct certainly is not an ascetically appealing new construction palace- I contend that Aqueduct holds a different type of charm. Certainly in this world there are diverse experiences and tastes- especially in New York. Aqueduct is a remnant of old working class New York- like an old pair of jeans that are the most comfortable, rugged and familiar article of clothes in your wardrobe. Everything in the wardrobe can not be a new suit. Must we steamroll/cleanse everything in this culture for the sake of homogeneity? Do we really need to demolish Aqueduct to make way for yet another Wal-Mart or Starbucks or Wal-Mart or Starbucks? Do we need to raid the taxpayers for billions to construct new stadiums -three here in the NYC area just the last two years- so the masses can consume more ball games and only ball games. Does every sport have to be a TV show masquerading as a team sport? If it doesn't fit the narrow mold of Mr. Haberman's world it must be demolished. This is the cultural homogeneity that the NY times silently yet ubiquitously promotes. The worldview is narrow and it is the cultural equivalent of rainforest slash and burn farming. The old is neglected and new turf is constantly slashed and burned to provide the fresh newly built experience that is requisite for "bucolic retreats"

Disinformation and cultural provincialism is not enough to drive the point home for the Times. They have to supplement this with the old stereotype. This is the old "punter as loser" stereotype that constantly appears in the press and by extension in the culture at large. The Times is very careful not stereotype most ethnic groups and certainly does not stereotype ballgame fans as braindead TV watching dolts. Why does the horseplayer always have to be stereotyped as a loser over and over.

I can’t look at horses anymore — there’s no fun,” said Michael Partridge, 69. He regularly added money to his account, but never withdrew. “I got the pleasure of it,” he said. “To handicap horses every night.”

More lackadaisical journalism from the times. There are winners at handicapping and some very sharp handicappers. This can not be read about in the New York Times. For them it is just easier to stereotype the entire group as losers and idiots. I guess if the goal is to demolish racing and get rid of all horse racing from the sports pages it is intellectually convenient to paint them with a broad brush as losers. This way when they are removed from the landscape the cultural guilt will be minimized.

This quote really highlights the poor understanding Mr. Haberman has of twentieth first century parimutuel operations:

The New York Racing Association, which operates the Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga tracks, has begun busing displaced OTB devotees to South Ozone Park. But even with higher attendance figures as a result, the amount bet at the track — the handle, in racing parlance — remains a small fraction of the overall wagering.
On Saturday, for example, the handle from all betting sources for races run at Aqueduct was nearly $8.8 million. At the track itself, in relatively mild weather, the handle came to just over $1 million. That ratio of about nine to one was not significantly different from that of a comparable Saturday last December.

Are ballgames a failure because millions watch on TV with only a few thousand in the stands? Are women abandoning shopping as a source of amusement because the business has migrated to on-line while brick and mortar flounders? The fact that most wagers are being placed on-line or at distant locations is a sign of progress. Mr. Haberman completely misses this point in his piece. Does he not know about simulcasting? As most of us know this gives racing the ability to reach almost everyone in the country. Now snowbound fans in Duluth Minnesota can play Aqueduct from their couch or fans in Chicago can bet Aqueduct from their Hawthorne racecourse. This is progress and not a sign of a game in crisis. Haberman stands this fact on its head and uses it to make the point that horseplayers have found "other ways to throw away their money". Anyone who does not understand this elementary fact should not be an information source- conversely this is the mark of a source of disinformation.

Two can play this game

2010-12-11T16:32:00.008-05:00

Hollywood park took out an ad in the Saturday racing form making their case for Zenyatta as horse of the year, clearly they are using this to submarine our bid to make Stormy's Majesty horse of the year. Much like Hollywood Park we believe that defeats or in our case multiple defeats does not matter when deciding year end honors. Time to start up the propaganda machine for Stormy.

The ball is in your court Hollywood Park.

NYCOTB Closing Is Great News

2010-12-10T04:56:00.010-05:00

It would seem that NYRA is truly in crisis mode without the handle from NYCOTB. They are chartering buses to funnel OTB players to the Big-A, pressing to overturn laws that prohibit live video and predicting that there may be purse reductions. Even the head of failed NYCOTB went on record to say that " there’s a definite possibility that the Saratoga Race Track will close as a result of the shutdown of OTB". The numbers after one day do not agree with this dire assessment. Instead of true crisis this could be a case of crisis as a means to an ends. It was Hillary Clinton that said "never waste a good crisis". NYRA could be using this "crisis" to accomplish goals which have stagnated in the sea of Albany dysfunction for decades. Beneath all the doom and gloom there may be a light which will be the start of a new paradigm for NYRA. A novus ordum of New York racing that will benefit the long term health of the industry.

Last Thursday 02DEC10 Aqueduct handled a total of $5.6 million including $475,000 on track and $1.3 million at all OTBs within New York state. Attendance was 2101. This week on Thursday 09DEC10 Aqueduct handled a total of $5.2 million with $536,000 on track and $822,361 from in state OTBs. Attendance was 2,704. While handle did drop a total of $416,000 Aqueduct enjoyed increased on-track handle along with more bodies in the plant. Every dollar wagered on track must be worth at least three wagered at OTB. With OTB in bankruptcy there were no guarantees that NYRA would ever see these funds wagered at OTB. With more people at the track converting to NYRA one accounts-- NYRA is gaining market share over the local handle. The fact that on- track handle has increased from last weekis a positive sign and will help NYRA weather the storm of decreased total handle.

A big part of that $416K deficit is that OTB players are still in scrambling mode looking for a place to book their action. This $416,000 deficit will likely close as players find a new home and return to action. The deficit may not be a long term affliction. How could these OTB guys just give up the greatest game so easy? Some will land off-shore, some will land with bookies, others with NYRA one and even with national ADWs like expressbet. When this all settles most of the OTB players will transition into a new vendor; some may even find a new love for the game -or a small profit- without that onerous 6% tax on winning levied by OTB. Of course there are some players -the type that used local OTB as a social club- that will be transitioning into a new hobby. These people will focus their dollars on things like lotto, dominoes or local cockfights. Maybe a few will execrate vice from their lives which is what many of these souls need.

In the end I believe that the primary effect is a livened up Aqueduct. A game with vitality. As a whole horse racing in New York will be better positioned to jettison that hardcore degenerate reputation that effused from the corner OTB like the pervasive smell of smell of rotting rubbish on a sultry summer night. NYRA will gain control over local market share and eliminate a divisive competitor that stifled the simplest initiatives live streaming video. Maybe I can begin to tell people I follow, watch and wager on horse racing without the expected gamblers anonymous hazing. From a holistic point of view the loss of NYCOTB may be just the tonic the game needed here in New York- we should have on-line video soon and the political dog and pony show will be over as racing interests are consolidated.

Blue Screen of Doom

2010-12-09T16:12:00.006-05:00

Channel 71 has long been the primary start up channel for my cable box, looks like it is time to pick a new channel. NYC OTB for all of it's industry innovation such as in home simulcasting and telephone accounts has kicked the bucket. The in home simulcasting is one of the great things done in the last thirty years of the game, it has given the serious horseplayer the option of staying home to keep track of the racing card at his or her convenience. It would serve well for the New York Racing Association to take up where NYC OTB left off on the in home feed, lots of NYRA Rewards players wager on the races from their couch because it is easier than going to the plant.

In the absence of a live feed for the racing fans in the five boroughs I suggest signing up for HRTV online, you have to pay for the signal but they offer a live non-delayed signal from the NY tracks. If they ever restore the TV broadcast you have a a way to watch the out of state tracks during the broadcast of the NY card, it is a win-win situation. The link is listed below.

http://www.hrtvlive.com/hrtv/

Aqueduct....Its For Old Guys

2010-12-09T04:20:00.003-05:00

NYRA Online Video Banned

2010-12-08T04:34:00.005-05:00

Why does live streaming of NYRA video persist in being banned within New York? What is the justification for this law? 17,000 people depend on racing for their livelihood in New York; wouldn't be in everyone's best interest to make racing an accessible, successful product? Wouldn't video of the races promote business; strong business leads to people making an honest living which leads to less welfare and other social afflictions. If racing is banned why aren't other sports like baseball or football banned from the internet?

The ultimate irony is that while video of horse racing is illegal within New York other perversions -including video of crushing animals to death-are protected as "free speech". On the federal level the supreme court ruled that watching small animals being murdered with high heel shoes is protected by freedom of expression-- yet in the same country watching a horse race in the home is prohibited. What a disordered system-completely divorced from all forms of reason- democracy can be. It is no wonder that this regressive system of government died in 3rd century B.C. Greece only to be resurrected 2,000 years later in the new world.

Now with NYC OTB out of the way Albany must abolish the law that bans the streaming video of NYRA horse racing in New York. With few places to watch horse racing around New York City- racing is a game depending on fans watching and wagering from home. It is also a game built for the internet. The state must clear the artificial barriers that prevent racing from realizing it's potential as a web 2.0 product. The increased betting handle generated by streaming video may help close the multi-billion dollar deficit in New York- that is if they are truly interested in closing that deficit instead of fattening the bulge in their pockets.

NYC OTB Shuts Down

2010-12-08T00:44:00.002-05:00

NYC OTB Ceases operations

Unfortunately this afternoon, the NYS Senate chose not to pass the bill passed by the Assembly that would have saved NYC OTB. Therefore, due to a lack of unrestricted funds to continue in business, NYC OTB will be ceasing all pari-mutuel wagering operations today, Tuesday, December 7, 2010 as per our Board of Directors vote, and will proceed to the orderly winding down of its business affairs.

Three branches will remain open in Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan for six calendar days after the last day of operations so that customers can cash tickets/vouchers and make account withdrawals. Thereafter, these transactions can be conducted at NYCOTB’s customer service center located at 1501 Broadway in Manhattan for up to six weeks. The locations that will remain open temporarily are:

107-40 QUEENS BLVD, FOREST HILLS, NYCross Street- Continental Ave
515 SEVENTH AVE, NEW YORK, NYCross Street- West 38th Street
6719 BAY PARKWAY, BROOKLYN, NYCross Street-West 8th Street

The hours of operation will be from 12:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. on the six calendar days following the last day of operations.

The corporation's website, www.nycotb.com will be updated constantly to keep our customer abreast of all events.

The body isn't even cold yet!

2010-12-05T21:03:00.003-05:00

Two advertisements from the NYRA website:

This one was before the main page appears on Sunday.

NYRA Rewards had this one going on Saturday on its login page, didn't check on Sunday.

Special Woodbine Pick 3

2010-12-04T04:52:00.004-05:00

Saturday 04DEC10
Woodbine Race 9... the Ontario Lassie
It was hard not to be impressed by #3 Inglorious last out. This one broke last in a short field- found herself at the back of the pack yet rallied impressively to score. This was a first out stakes win not a maiden special weight. The win pool I fear will be short on this filly so lets work the pick 3s surrounding inglorious.

Race 7 pick 3... 4,6,8,10 / 4,8,10,12 / 3

Race 9 pick 3... 3 / ALL / 6,14

The Clear Solution To The OTB Drama

2010-12-04T01:22:00.006-05:00

Why does the state continue on with the OTB charade? Not only are they losing money on this operation but they are blighting the sport they have a responsibility to promote. The state is taking an entirely wrong headed approach to off track wagering. These bureaucrats and race hustlers like Hazel Dukes have no business running wagering operations and have consistently placed a loser in the race. Instead of letting OTB die it should be turned over to private businessmen-- people who know how to run an operation. OTB could be a winner for both the industry and the customer. For too long the decrepit and poorly run OTB parlors have given horse racing in New York a reputation that is just a smidgen better than cock fights, brothels or crackhouses. The right operator could resurrect the reputation of horse racing while reintroducing class to the greatest game. There are more options than to close; the problem is not the product it is the operator. If the government does not have the people or ability to run a horse book it should be turned over to the people that have that ability. Certainly there are people out there that can turn this into a winner. Why aren't these options being discussed?

The state should issue franchises to private operators to run bet parlors like they do in the British isles. The unprofitable parlors should be closed and the profitable units could be optimized to maximize profits. New York is not middle America-the local men like horse racing and not TV college sports or tractor pulls. It may not be a fashionable market and it may not be the same market that has supported the 5,000 Starbucks that have opened up in New York over the last ten years but there still is a working class niche for OTB. For a talking class that likes to talk about diversity it seems like pari-mutual wagering does not fit into grand mosaic of Starbucks, Target, Whole Foods and Starbucks that New York has become.

My relatives could run a bet parlor and it all starts with some basic customer service. The right operator is kind enough to offer the patron a beverage and a lunch box along with your exacta box. OTB never could get this right. The right kind of OTB would offer patrons something like "powers cap's play of the day" to ensure they are winners and not part of the masses of loser cappers.

This is not the time to just close OTB, we can not leave all the dedicated handicappers of OTB out in the street. Yet this is what Albany is doing, it is like if their patronage mill can't succeed, there are no other options. Since the media does not discuss any other options no other options are discussed while the best option -private franchise ownership- is never discussed.

The patrons of OTB have lived with a 6% rake on winnings yet have persisted to make NYC OTB the largest bet taker in the United States -if that is not dedication I don't know what is- making them some of the most prized and dedicated customers in the world. We can not just leave these OTB patrons to find new hobbies. It is time to transition into a private owner-- one who will take care of the customer and grow the sport of racing. Let the local people run it; a great choice would be a local operator who knows how to do gambling right. The people from DRF or NYRA may be a good place to start. The wrong people have been running OTB and it shows. To just let the largest parimutuel operation in the country die would be a waste of a resource.

'Tis The Holiday Season

2010-11-26T14:10:00.006-05:00

Who says racing cannot be festive during this time of year? Hollywood is running grade ones and high class racing throughout the weekend capped off by the Hollywood Derby, Churchill has a slew of high class racing on tap, and Aqueduct is showcasing its last big day of racing of the year before the inner track meet starts. A lot of holiday weekends have top notch racing, Memorial Day and Labor Day Weekend come to mind, this one coming up gets lost in the shuffle of yearly racing due to the timing of it happening three weeks after the Breeders’ Cup. While a lot of these races don’t have the elite names in the sport running, they serve as a important races regardless. Blame won the Clark Handicap and went on to a Stephen Foster, Whitney Handicap, Breeders’ Cup Classic triple this year. Bluegrass Cat won the 2005 Remsen en route to a Derby second place finish and a Haskell win the following year. Congaree, won the 2002 Cigar Mile Handicap as a four year old setting up for a solid season at five that included wins in the Hollywood Gold Cup, Carter Handicap, San Antonio Handicap, San Pasqual Handicap, and a repeat effort of the Cigar Mile. Cigar won the Cigar Mile back in 1994 when it was called the NYRA Mile for his second out of 16 in a row and his first stakes win.

Cigar Mile

First a little more history, this race was started in 1988 and is still the only other grade one dirt mile race on the schedule for handicap males other than the Metropolitan Handicap. Only one horse has captured both of these races and it wasn’t in the same year, Sir Bear won the 1999 Met Mile and the 1998 Cigar Mile. This year Bribon is trying the same feat as Sir Bear, the 2009 Met Mile winner is coming into this race off of a win in the Bold Ruler that was run on a slightly slower than usual surface.

A few of Breeders’ Cup returnees are entered in this race as well. Haynesfield is looking for a good bounce-back effort from his Classic flop and Musket Man is also coming back off a flat effort from that same race. Girolamo’s backers in the Sprint get a chance to make back the money they lost on him in early November and his stable mate Vineyard Haven is here after a stale performance in the Dirt Mile. It is like a convention of Breeders’ Cup duds who happen to earn their paychecks in New York.

Remsen Stakes

28 minutes before this race the Demoiselle takes place and it is not part of the pick four sequence. There is a $250,000 guaranteed pool that has three stakes races and the last leg is a claiming race. The fact that there is no all stakes pick four scheduled is a bit odd. Other racing days like the Belmont Stakes, Wood Memorial, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup where there is four or more stakes in a row they have this wager, yet it is no where in sight for this late November sequence. An all stakes pick four followed by the sequence they have set up was could have been done very easily, at least they have a grand slam linking up all four stakes races.

The Remsen has had an unfortunate recent history of producing Derby flops, since Thunder Gulch won the 1994 renewal there hasn’t been a winner of the race to go on to Derby glory. The last two winners didn’t even reach the post position draw for the big race and the two winners before that went on to greater glory on turf rather than dirt. This year we get To Honor and Serve as the probable heavy favorite, his last race was visual masterpiece, but looking at the race a bit closer shows two things. The first is that he got an easy pace to wire the field and the second is he faced four overmatched rivals. It may be worthwhile to look around for a price in this race.

Marylou Whitney and Nick Zito must be kicking themselves after letting go of Mountain Town in a maiden claiming race for $75,000 back in August. He may go on to bigger and better things after running decently against the division leader Uncle Mo. He gets a weight break dropping six pounds off of that last race and is a major threat to win the Remsen.

Here today, gone tomorrow

Churchill wraps up its month long meet on Saturday with tons of juvenile action headlined by the Golden Rod for fillies and the Kentucky Jockey Club for colts and geldings. The juvenile showcase day has had a very good recent history of producing at least one noteworthy racehorse the following year. In 2009 Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club on the way to the Kentucky Derby. Rachel Alexandra was the winner of the 2008 Golden Rod, which was her first of eleven stakes wins that included the Preakness and Haskell.

Horse Of The Year Takes Down GIII

2010-11-20T21:27:00.005-05:00

Forget about the wasting your energy in the Zenyatta/Blame HOTY pissing match. In Power Cap's world the horse of the year is a done deal and it is a three year old New York Bred. Our own personal "horse of the year" Stormy's Majesty wins the Discovery handicap at the Big-A and fulfills our prophecy of winning a graded stakes race. Take a look and see how Stormy's Majesty dwarfs the other horses in the race and powers past for the score. This colt has won five out of eight races and only has been the favorite once in his career. We were even able to get a piece of the action in a big way.

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Stormy's Majesty, the lone New York-bred in the field, rolled to a two-length win over Not Abroad Saturday in the Grade 3, $100,000 Discovery Handicap for 3-year-olds at Aqueduct. Edgar Prado was aboard for trainer Dominic Galluscio as Stormy's Majesty ($9.10) improved to 5 for 8 with his first win in open company. A homebred for Majesty Stud, Stormy's Majesty had captured the Albany Stakes for statebreds in August at Saratoga. Prior to Saturday, he ran last in the Empire Classic against older New York-bred foes. In the Discovery, Stormy's Majesty was well in command. He battled Golden Moka for the early lead before dispatching that rival with a quick burst at the top of the final turn. "In the Empire Classic he got behind and didn't seem to catch his stride or breathe as well," Galluscio said. "I was surprised he was on the lead because it looked like there were horses with more speed, but I was very comfortable when they showed the fractions and saw the way Edgar was sitting." Stormy's Majesty was on cruise control the rest of the way, needing only minimal encouragement from Prado. The time was 1:50.02 for the 1 1/8 miles on the fast track. Teaks North was third followed by Overcommunication, Golden Moka, Al Muhtasib, and Dominant Jeannes.