You could call me a horse racing fanatic, a student of the game or even a gambling degenerate. I look at a race card 4 or 5 days a week, the sport crosses my mind many times a day and I even took step to make this web page to express my constant thoughts of racing. I love blackjack, have entered poker tournaments, have been playing dice for almost 20 years and I am not even in my mid-thirties. As someone that lives a stones throw from Yonkers you would figure that I would be there on a weekly basis, perhaps I could even be the customer of the month and have some reserved spot near the door. That is not the case, I have only had been there two times and last night made the third time.
With some time to kill the wife and I headed out there to check the place out and see what goes on there. The auto parking is on the backstretch which is a big hike from the doors. They have shuttle buses to get you from your car to the action. The female driver of the bus took to time to launch an official sounding announcement that warned us to leave with the loot if we hit for big and not to give it back. The first thing you see when you walk in the door is rows and rows of slots. You have to walk past hundreds of slots before you see a horse. The slots have various references to TV like Wheel Of Fortune slots and other things that may appeal to the targeted blue hair demographic. Yonkers offers slots in denominations of 1 cent to $5. I pulled some cash out of my bankroll and funded my wife so she could test the machines out. In Vegas a slot player can usually can last a little while before the bankroll taps out but this was like a dropping a crisp $100 bill in a toilet bowl. You just watched as the money spins around and it is soon gone. These things where tighter than a ducks rump. I could not imagine that any person with an IQ above 80 would enjoy this form of gambling or think they could grind out a profit. The reels were spinning but nothing was hitting. It was not only mindless but it was laughably hopeless. Maybe it was the time of the month(the first of the month is a key day for the patrons there) but the slots were pretty empty at 9PM on a Wednesday evening. I could not understand how this experience could appeal to anyone.
Then we went outside for the races. I am a gambler, I started gambling when I was 5 years old playing gin rummy with the old ladies that lived in my building. Then there was ceilo at lunch and after school in High School and trips to Aqueduct/Belmont every Saturday. With all of this gambling over the last 27 years I have never placed a wager on a harness race. I was all set to bet on the the trotters at Yonkers. I go to the window to make an exacta part wheel with 5 minutes to post. There must have been 10 people in line. I got shut out with 5 minutes to post! The patrons and tellers were so slow and there was so much line capping that I never made it to the window. I look up and the win pool was a minuscule $1700 which I thought was pathetic. The race goes off and #2 Blue Boy breaks first and is 5/2. Blue Boy easily makes the lead and is all of a sudden drops from 5/2 down to 3/2 when they hit the far turn. Considering the size of the pool I guess a $20 win bet could have knocked the winner down 3 or 4 ticks.
Needless to say I will not be returning to Yonkers anytime soon.
Power cap- existential handicapping
31 July 2008
Bonus Power Play Of The Day 31JULY
Race 8 Saratoga
Another power play at a big price has been identified by the powercap. This race seems to have a huge amount of speed and a big speed duel looms. Set to benefit from this speed duel is #7 Imagistic. This filly has a few conditioning races under her girth and has the pace set up to win this over the same track and surface she broke her maiden over last year.
Race 8 Win #7 Imagistic
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
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Special power cap double play since the dual plays of the day are in consecutive races.
Big DD 3/7
DD 3,4,6,9 / 7
DD 3 / 4,5,7,8
Another power play at a big price has been identified by the powercap. This race seems to have a huge amount of speed and a big speed duel looms. Set to benefit from this speed duel is #7 Imagistic. This filly has a few conditioning races under her girth and has the pace set up to win this over the same track and surface she broke her maiden over last year.
Race 8 Win #7 Imagistic
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
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Special power cap double play since the dual plays of the day are in consecutive races.
Big DD 3/7
DD 3,4,6,9 / 7
DD 3 / 4,5,7,8
31JULY Power Play
Saratoga Race 7
Approved by Dylan is cutting back from a 12 and and 14 furlong race. This is a very powerful form factor for a turf horse. Looks like he will be very strong in the lane on the cutback and could light up the toteboard off his 12-1 morning line. Horse is a professional racehorse and could be closing stoutly here at a big price push the powercap ROI even further into the black.
Race 7
Win #3 Approved By Dylan
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
Approved by Dylan is cutting back from a 12 and and 14 furlong race. This is a very powerful form factor for a turf horse. Looks like he will be very strong in the lane on the cutback and could light up the toteboard off his 12-1 morning line. Horse is a professional racehorse and could be closing stoutly here at a big price push the powercap ROI even further into the black.
Race 7
Win #3 Approved By Dylan
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
29 July 2008
30JUL Power Bomb Of The Day
Saratoga Race 6
If you had a tough first week at the Spa and the 11 race a day 6 day a week a grind is getting to you I may have an out to take you to East Elationville. Race 6 is a 11 furlong test on the inner turf that is completely void of speed. Sometimes these long turf races are won by a speed horse when all the others are under a hammer lock saving something for the finish. Many times the majority of a turf marathon field will save and save energy and find they are too late to run down that pacesetter who has been clear and loose on the lead. This situation is possible in race 6 and a 30-1 bomb stands to benefit. Chasing The Crown is a turf speed horse who finds himself the lone speed in here. He is third off the bench and should now possess the requisite stamina to win this race. The 7 furlong race sharpened his speed and the 10 furlong race increased his lung capacity. he should be ready today and at this price he is worth a play.
Saratoga Race 6
Win #8 Chasing The Crown
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
If you had a tough first week at the Spa and the 11 race a day 6 day a week a grind is getting to you I may have an out to take you to East Elationville. Race 6 is a 11 furlong test on the inner turf that is completely void of speed. Sometimes these long turf races are won by a speed horse when all the others are under a hammer lock saving something for the finish. Many times the majority of a turf marathon field will save and save energy and find they are too late to run down that pacesetter who has been clear and loose on the lead. This situation is possible in race 6 and a 30-1 bomb stands to benefit. Chasing The Crown is a turf speed horse who finds himself the lone speed in here. He is third off the bench and should now possess the requisite stamina to win this race. The 7 furlong race sharpened his speed and the 10 furlong race increased his lung capacity. he should be ready today and at this price he is worth a play.
Saratoga Race 6
Win #8 Chasing The Crown
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
Spa Bomb Parade On Maniac Monday
The Spa faithful have seen a barrage of bombs the last few days. On Monday 8 of the 10 races paid boxcars, with the biggest price being Unflagging a Weaver first time starter at 30-1. (how great is weaver on the turf off the bench?) This has to be tough on the action junkies who could not be coming up with these illogical horses race after race. Mondays at the Spa have traditionally been the day for all hell to break loose, today it broke loose with a vengeance.
For example look at 22-1 winner Cagey Girl. She failed miserably last race where she was a lone speed on the speed favoring Belmont Inner Course. At a short 7-2 price she never made the top even with a sweetheart lone speed set-up on paper. On Monday she had to deal with many other speed horses in a much stronger field. Reflecting the increased saltiness of the field Cagey Girls price ballooned to 22-1 as the crowd did not take her very seriously as a win prospect. Left alone on a lonesome lead she cruised to victory with out being challenged by any of the other speed horses like Stormy Relations or Absolute Heaven that figured to press her into defeat.
Seems like the way to make money on these cards is to find a core opinion and cover unlikely scenarios around it. Make chaos your friend. If someone liked 2-1 Kodiac Kowboy they could have flipped a $6 winner into a $37K score with the right use of bombs surrounding him in the pick 4 sequence. For those who have not been able to get a piece of the big price action time may be running out, things are bound to settle down as the meet moves on, at least outside of Maniac Mondays. For those of us in the red we have five weeks weeks to get back to the black.
For example look at 22-1 winner Cagey Girl. She failed miserably last race where she was a lone speed on the speed favoring Belmont Inner Course. At a short 7-2 price she never made the top even with a sweetheart lone speed set-up on paper. On Monday she had to deal with many other speed horses in a much stronger field. Reflecting the increased saltiness of the field Cagey Girls price ballooned to 22-1 as the crowd did not take her very seriously as a win prospect. Left alone on a lonesome lead she cruised to victory with out being challenged by any of the other speed horses like Stormy Relations or Absolute Heaven that figured to press her into defeat.
Seems like the way to make money on these cards is to find a core opinion and cover unlikely scenarios around it. Make chaos your friend. If someone liked 2-1 Kodiac Kowboy they could have flipped a $6 winner into a $37K score with the right use of bombs surrounding him in the pick 4 sequence. For those who have not been able to get a piece of the big price action time may be running out, things are bound to settle down as the meet moves on, at least outside of Maniac Mondays. For those of us in the red we have five weeks weeks to get back to the black.
28 July 2008
Godolphin Should Enter Music Note In The Travers
The fastest classic race run this year by a three year old was run by a filly. After watching the Coaching Club American Oaks I think that Godolphin would be shrewd to run her in the Travers against the boys instead of the Alabama. This years filly group has been a bumper crop. Eight Belles, Proud Spell, Little Belle, Music Note and Pure Clan are the leaders of an outstanding group of three year old fillys. The Alabama could be as strong or even stronger than the Travers for a smaller purse. If Godolphin runs Music Note in the Travers they still have the capable Little Belle to represent the blue and white in the Alabama. Not only will Music Note have a great shot to win the Travers but she will have an extra week of rest to prepare for the race. It would truly be a highlight of the racing season at Saratoga if Music Note hits a high note in the Travers.
27 July 2008
27JUL Play Of The Day
Saratoga Race 1
Let's get this one over with so we can go out and enjoy the day. In race one the heavy morning line chalk Yelt has not won outside of Calder and is a Dutrow horse that has not worked in almost a month. This looks like a classic vulnerable favorite. The second choice is a Churchill shipper with a terminal case of seconditus. The third choice has very little back class breaking the maiden for 20K at Calder . The forth choice is another Churchill shipper that looks for his third win in a row. I think the ship and the step up in class will do this one in. This lets us go deep into the field for 10-1 morning line Loaves And Dishes. This one failed last out as the chalk in a N1X allowance but now drops in class to claimers for the first time since January. The last time this one ran for a tag it meant a big win. Loaves also won going long twice so the seven panels should not be an issue. At 10-1 Loaves and Dishes is an excellent value and a good key in the early double and pick 3.
Saratoga Race 1
Win #7 Loaves And Dishes
35 7-4-5
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.55
Let's get this one over with so we can go out and enjoy the day. In race one the heavy morning line chalk Yelt has not won outside of Calder and is a Dutrow horse that has not worked in almost a month. This looks like a classic vulnerable favorite. The second choice is a Churchill shipper with a terminal case of seconditus. The third choice has very little back class breaking the maiden for 20K at Calder . The forth choice is another Churchill shipper that looks for his third win in a row. I think the ship and the step up in class will do this one in. This lets us go deep into the field for 10-1 morning line Loaves And Dishes. This one failed last out as the chalk in a N1X allowance but now drops in class to claimers for the first time since January. The last time this one ran for a tag it meant a big win. Loaves also won going long twice so the seven panels should not be an issue. At 10-1 Loaves and Dishes is an excellent value and a good key in the early double and pick 3.
Saratoga Race 1
Win #7 Loaves And Dishes
35 7-4-5
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.55
25 July 2008
Twilight Play Of The Day
Saratoga Race 6
There is a lone speed in race 6 that figures to take this field from gate to wire with ease. No pressure signed on and Asmussen is dominating his rivals. Visible truth has this field of closers at his mercy.
Race 6 Win #4 Visible Truth
Power Stats
34 7-4-4
strike rate 21%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.63
There is a lone speed in race 6 that figures to take this field from gate to wire with ease. No pressure signed on and Asmussen is dominating his rivals. Visible truth has this field of closers at his mercy.
Race 6 Win #4 Visible Truth
Power Stats
34 7-4-4
strike rate 21%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.63
NYRA Replays And Audio Return To Website
Someone in Albany relented and allowed NYRA to show it's product on the NYRA website. I guess people were not streaming into to OTB to pay a 5% surcharge just because live audio and replays were not available on the NYRA website. After a few months of not being able to offer replays of its races the replay website returned yesterday. It is a good idea to bookmark the replay link as for weeks the link from the NYRA page was blocked to satisfy the corrupt legislators while the website for actually functioned with replays being available while the NYRA website stated this;
For regulatory purposes, NYRA is not permitted at this time to provide a link to our race replays. NYRA understands and regrets this inconvenience for our fans who have come to rely upon these services.
Please be assured NYRA is doing everything within its power to work with the New York State Racing and Wagering Board to restore this link to our web site as soon as possible..
24 July 2008
Two Days Of A Dead Rail At Saratoga
If you are taking notes on the Saratoga meet make sure you catch this. The first two days of the spa featured the deadest rail I have seen all year. Dropping down there was like being sucked into a black hole. All the energy and vigir was sucked out of everything on the rail. The crown of the track was the place to be.
Extra credit to Visionaire who rallied on the dead rail today he was the only one two over come over a two day stretch.
Thumbs down to Coa who took everything down to the black hole rail and tired it out, he seemed to be unaware of how the track was playing.
Extra credit to Visionaire who rallied on the dead rail today he was the only one two over come over a two day stretch.
Thumbs down to Coa who took everything down to the black hole rail and tired it out, he seemed to be unaware of how the track was playing.
21 July 2008
Belmont Post Apocalyptic Nightmare
I had to pick up a V.I.P. from La Guardia airport Saturday afternoon, that opened up an opportunity to make one last trip to Belmont before the meet ended. I show up at the Belmont grandstand gate at three PM and was confronted with the most bizarre scene. Every monitor was dark, every light was out, every window/booth was unmanned and the only noise was when the horses ran by. I looked left and there was nobody and I looked right and there was not a sign of life while the Grandstand was completely empty. Had the day arrived when every old geezer horseplayer tapped out for eternity?
Then I thought that maybe it was me who died and ended up in heaven. When I was in second grade I used to have this recurring fantasy that I survived an airliner disaster somewhere in the Northern tundra and the only person that survived was the girl that I had an intense crush on from class. The highlights of this dream was that all of the annoying morons from school were silenced and I got to take care of and love the girl I was obsessed with free from outside interference. This completely empty Belmont experience was about as close to that dream as I ever had since I sort of fixate on racing the same way I fixated on that girl when I was a kid. What I found out on Saturday is that I would not mind spending eternity at North Belmont Park, however I would not want to do it alone. While it may of been okay to be alone with the girl of my dreams I would not want to be alone with the DRF in a cavernous grandstand. The joy of racing is in the crowd and in the cheer of the crowd when they turn for home. Someone needs to be there to help fill the exacta pool.
After wandering around all alone for a while I noticed that I was not in some post parimutuel nuclear holocaust but in some sort of other situation. The crowd that I initially missed was packed into the clubhouse. At the time I was not aware of a fire, I thought that packing the entire crowd was a cost cutting measure since it was the last few days of Belmont before they move the carnival up north. The Clubhouse was hot and smelly with the A/C out and all of the the Grandstand crowd packed in there. It was a still a good idea to go down there as it ended up being a unique experience I will not forget. To top it off I ran into one of my favorite capper compatriots and it turned out to be just another fun day at the track and not some post apocalyptic nightmare.
Then I thought that maybe it was me who died and ended up in heaven. When I was in second grade I used to have this recurring fantasy that I survived an airliner disaster somewhere in the Northern tundra and the only person that survived was the girl that I had an intense crush on from class. The highlights of this dream was that all of the annoying morons from school were silenced and I got to take care of and love the girl I was obsessed with free from outside interference. This completely empty Belmont experience was about as close to that dream as I ever had since I sort of fixate on racing the same way I fixated on that girl when I was a kid. What I found out on Saturday is that I would not mind spending eternity at North Belmont Park, however I would not want to do it alone. While it may of been okay to be alone with the girl of my dreams I would not want to be alone with the DRF in a cavernous grandstand. The joy of racing is in the crowd and in the cheer of the crowd when they turn for home. Someone needs to be there to help fill the exacta pool.
After wandering around all alone for a while I noticed that I was not in some post parimutuel nuclear holocaust but in some sort of other situation. The crowd that I initially missed was packed into the clubhouse. At the time I was not aware of a fire, I thought that packing the entire crowd was a cost cutting measure since it was the last few days of Belmont before they move the carnival up north. The Clubhouse was hot and smelly with the A/C out and all of the the Grandstand crowd packed in there. It was a still a good idea to go down there as it ended up being a unique experience I will not forget. To top it off I ran into one of my favorite capper compatriots and it turned out to be just another fun day at the track and not some post apocalyptic nightmare.
15 July 2008
Evening Attire Entered In Philly's Greenwood cup $250K Stakes
Everybody's favorite gray gelding Evening Attire is entered at Philly in the 12 furlong Greenwood Cup. This race is part of the win and you're are in NTRA/Breeders Cup promo. Looking at the pp's Evening Attire has a great chance to win as not one of his rivals have proven that they can get 12 furlongs. My only concern would be the weather as it is forecasted to be 95 degrees and unbearably humid. These are brutal conditions for a long race and a three hour van ride. If Evening Attire's connections decide not to run, they can consider a 1 3/16th overnight stakes race at Saratoga on the 9th of August that would be a good fit for him.
13 July 2008
13 July Play Of The Day
Belmont Race 6
Like Giant Deputy in here. Race is completely void of pace and Giant Deputy should be very comfortable up on the pace. The kick is that the two favorites are dropping in class but both are closers the outsiders are all also closers too. Barrier Reef was outrun last time on the front end by a long layoff 19-1 shot and lost ground in the lane. I think he will be an underlay yet again with the stakes win on the PP's. The big favorite will be Sightseeing on the drop from the Westchester and the Brooklyn caps. Both of these races had strong paces and Sightseeing did very little. With even less pace to run at Sightseeing could have major trouble running down Giant Deputy.
Liking Giant Deputy to beat the favorite and the second choice.
Win #2 Giant Deputy
Cap Stats
33 6-4-4
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $82.60
$2 ROI $2.50
Like Giant Deputy in here. Race is completely void of pace and Giant Deputy should be very comfortable up on the pace. The kick is that the two favorites are dropping in class but both are closers the outsiders are all also closers too. Barrier Reef was outrun last time on the front end by a long layoff 19-1 shot and lost ground in the lane. I think he will be an underlay yet again with the stakes win on the PP's. The big favorite will be Sightseeing on the drop from the Westchester and the Brooklyn caps. Both of these races had strong paces and Sightseeing did very little. With even less pace to run at Sightseeing could have major trouble running down Giant Deputy.
Liking Giant Deputy to beat the favorite and the second choice.
Win #2 Giant Deputy
Cap Stats
33 6-4-4
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $82.60
$2 ROI $2.50
Man O' War Trip Report
The Man O' War was one of those races that further proves that racing is the greatest sport played outdoors. Even with a disappointing result the day provided a emotionally resonating roller coaster ride that I will soon not forget. It was a beautiful day weather wise and a classy, sharp and exclusive crowd of 8,400 assembled at Belmont to see Curlin try his form on the turf.
This was a different day at the races. There seemed to be quite a few fans who shipped in to town to see Curlin run. It is always nice to see new faces at Belmont where the same faces can be seen week after week. The scene around the paddock before the Man O' War was chaotic. When Curlin emerged from the security barn he was flanked by a sizable entourage of security and Jackson's people. The fans where ten deep in the paddock and completely focused on Curlin like a movie star amongst grocery store clerks. There must have been three dozen photographers snapping pictures of him while he stood quietly in his stall in the paddock. While all of Curlin's rivals had a traditional pre-race walkabout in the paddock, Curlin stood in his stall for fifteen minutes. Then he was saddled and stood there five minutes more. Curlin spent his paddock time being stroked by his owner Jess Jackson and assistant Blasi. Curlin stood calmly, ears pricked and looked well. However I have never seen a horse spend all twenty minutes of his paddock time confined to his stall with no walking. He was calm to a fault with absolutely no sweat on a fairly warm day. Was Asmussen worried about Curlin getting warm? Was that the reason he was confined to his stall. When Curlin emerged from the stall he was greeted by a rousing round of applause that traveled through the paddock like a ocean wave.
The winner Red Rocks was the polar opposite in the paddock. He walked around and around before being saddled and was quite fractious after being saddled. Red Rocks was a handful for his groom and had sweat dripping down his flank. He was fractious when mounted and quite frisky. He was a horse on edge. Even with these antics Red Rocks ran a tremendous race and came home in a blistering 11 and 3/5th seconds for the final 1/8th of a mile. This is a horse that clearly excels over American turf courses.
Better Talk Now looked great in the paddock especially for a nine year. They could have a senior horse beauty contest and it would boil down to Evening Attire and Better Talk. BTN is a tall athletic looking horse. However he had some antics in the tunnel and did not join the other horses in the parade. When he left the tunnel Better Talk Now and his pony galloped off toward the clubhouse turn away from the other horses and had a vigorous pre-race warm-up while being flanked by three lead ponies away from the other horses.
When Curlin entered the track NYRA did something never before heard at a racetrack. Curlin stepped on to the track with his own theme music! Blasted over the PA system was a hip-hop beat with the words "The Champ Is Here" over and over. Curlin made an entrance to the track like a Heavyweight boxing champion. I thought it was a bold thing for NYRA to do. Once again he received a rousing round of applause in the parade.
Curlin ran a good race in defeat and I hope that Jess Jackson and Asmussen give him one more shot on the turf before they revert to plan B. To the bold go the spoils and I am confident that Curlin can run better on the turf next time. We have all heard them say that Curlin is always better second time over a surface. This is the most dramatic surface switch he has ever encountered over a distance/surface that his rivals could run over in their sleep. It may take two races for the transition in surfaces to resonate. What if the connections of Curlin did not race in the 2007 Breeders Cup classic because of his below par effort in the Haskell over the same Monmouth dirt where he romped over in the Classic? Jackson and crew have to stay the course for one more race. At the very least this is a thrill for the hardcore fans. These are the same fans that gave Curlin yet another round of applause even in defeat while returning to be unsaddled.
This was a different day at the races. There seemed to be quite a few fans who shipped in to town to see Curlin run. It is always nice to see new faces at Belmont where the same faces can be seen week after week. The scene around the paddock before the Man O' War was chaotic. When Curlin emerged from the security barn he was flanked by a sizable entourage of security and Jackson's people. The fans where ten deep in the paddock and completely focused on Curlin like a movie star amongst grocery store clerks. There must have been three dozen photographers snapping pictures of him while he stood quietly in his stall in the paddock. While all of Curlin's rivals had a traditional pre-race walkabout in the paddock, Curlin stood in his stall for fifteen minutes. Then he was saddled and stood there five minutes more. Curlin spent his paddock time being stroked by his owner Jess Jackson and assistant Blasi. Curlin stood calmly, ears pricked and looked well. However I have never seen a horse spend all twenty minutes of his paddock time confined to his stall with no walking. He was calm to a fault with absolutely no sweat on a fairly warm day. Was Asmussen worried about Curlin getting warm? Was that the reason he was confined to his stall. When Curlin emerged from the stall he was greeted by a rousing round of applause that traveled through the paddock like a ocean wave.
The winner Red Rocks was the polar opposite in the paddock. He walked around and around before being saddled and was quite fractious after being saddled. Red Rocks was a handful for his groom and had sweat dripping down his flank. He was fractious when mounted and quite frisky. He was a horse on edge. Even with these antics Red Rocks ran a tremendous race and came home in a blistering 11 and 3/5th seconds for the final 1/8th of a mile. This is a horse that clearly excels over American turf courses.
Better Talk Now looked great in the paddock especially for a nine year. They could have a senior horse beauty contest and it would boil down to Evening Attire and Better Talk. BTN is a tall athletic looking horse. However he had some antics in the tunnel and did not join the other horses in the parade. When he left the tunnel Better Talk Now and his pony galloped off toward the clubhouse turn away from the other horses and had a vigorous pre-race warm-up while being flanked by three lead ponies away from the other horses.
When Curlin entered the track NYRA did something never before heard at a racetrack. Curlin stepped on to the track with his own theme music! Blasted over the PA system was a hip-hop beat with the words "The Champ Is Here" over and over. Curlin made an entrance to the track like a Heavyweight boxing champion. I thought it was a bold thing for NYRA to do. Once again he received a rousing round of applause in the parade.
Curlin ran a good race in defeat and I hope that Jess Jackson and Asmussen give him one more shot on the turf before they revert to plan B. To the bold go the spoils and I am confident that Curlin can run better on the turf next time. We have all heard them say that Curlin is always better second time over a surface. This is the most dramatic surface switch he has ever encountered over a distance/surface that his rivals could run over in their sleep. It may take two races for the transition in surfaces to resonate. What if the connections of Curlin did not race in the 2007 Breeders Cup classic because of his below par effort in the Haskell over the same Monmouth dirt where he romped over in the Classic? Jackson and crew have to stay the course for one more race. At the very least this is a thrill for the hardcore fans. These are the same fans that gave Curlin yet another round of applause even in defeat while returning to be unsaddled.
12 July 2008
Only Fools Try To Beat Curlin
Curlin is much the best horse today in the Man O' War and will absolutely destroy this field. He is in another class and has explosive late kick. Curlin's class is so overwhelming that he may just be better on the turf, where class is a dominant factor. Another chapter in his legacy will commence today. Trying to stymie Curlin's class is like trying to contain a lit wild geese rocket in your pants. The rocket just can not be contained. When horses are this classy they can act on anything. Curlin will win today.
Those trying to beat him are holding the wrong opinion and it is not only going to cost them money, but in addition it is going to sour the moment when Curlin wins and they are left holding a bunch of worthless tickets. It is going to be a great moment in racing when Curlin wins today, don't ruin it for yourself by betting against him.
Those trying to beat him are holding the wrong opinion and it is not only going to cost them money, but in addition it is going to sour the moment when Curlin wins and they are left holding a bunch of worthless tickets. It is going to be a great moment in racing when Curlin wins today, don't ruin it for yourself by betting against him.
12 July Play Of The Day
Belmont Race 5
Today there are dozens stakes races, a world champion trying something new and a summit of speed to choose from when selecting your play of the day. You can keep all that. The golden go play of the day lands in Belmont's fifth race in a lowly maiden claimer. While most will disregard this race as nothing of interest for me it will make or break my afternoon and determine what I eat for dinner.
#9 Westward Go has this field at his mercy. This strong finisher is cutting back from 9 furlongs to 7 furlongs against a field of horses that has problems finishing their race. He should be loaded and ready to explode in the lane like chestnut rocket ship. If he holds at 7-2 morning it is time to max out the ATM, call up Larry the loan shark, hock the family jewels and bet it all on Westward Go.
Belmont Race 5
Win #9
Cap Stats
32 6-4-3
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $82.60
$2 ROI $2.58
Today there are dozens stakes races, a world champion trying something new and a summit of speed to choose from when selecting your play of the day. You can keep all that. The golden go play of the day lands in Belmont's fifth race in a lowly maiden claimer. While most will disregard this race as nothing of interest for me it will make or break my afternoon and determine what I eat for dinner.
#9 Westward Go has this field at his mercy. This strong finisher is cutting back from 9 furlongs to 7 furlongs against a field of horses that has problems finishing their race. He should be loaded and ready to explode in the lane like chestnut rocket ship. If he holds at 7-2 morning it is time to max out the ATM, call up Larry the loan shark, hock the family jewels and bet it all on Westward Go.
Belmont Race 5
Win #9
Cap Stats
32 6-4-3
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $82.60
$2 ROI $2.58
10 July 2008
Man O' War Blockbuster
For the first time in fifteen years (93' BC Sprint)three Breeders Cup winners will square off in a race. Breeders Cup Classic winner Curlin will be tested by Breeders Cup Turf winners Better Talk Now and Red Rocks. This race has the makings of the race of the year and it will likely validate Curlin as a legitimate Grade I turf horse if he can beat this field.
Curlin certainly has questions to answer. There is the new surface, which is no small obstacle. Curlin is an impressive individual to all that have seen him. However he is build like a dirt horse. He is a stout, barrel chested individual which is the confirmation of a dirt horse even a dirt sprinter. He does not have the long legged distance covering look of a typical 12 furlong turf lawnmower. Will his confirmation enable him to transfer that outstanding dirt form to the turf? There also a distance question. One mile and three eighths is further than he has ever won at, and he will certainly be test by the three Grade I closers in here Red Rocks, Better Talk Now and Grand Coturier. The one thing that is for sure is that Curlin has class, and like Dr. Fager and Secretariat before him top class dirt horses can excel on the turf.
Curlin certainly has questions to answer. There is the new surface, which is no small obstacle. Curlin is an impressive individual to all that have seen him. However he is build like a dirt horse. He is a stout, barrel chested individual which is the confirmation of a dirt horse even a dirt sprinter. He does not have the long legged distance covering look of a typical 12 furlong turf lawnmower. Will his confirmation enable him to transfer that outstanding dirt form to the turf? There also a distance question. One mile and three eighths is further than he has ever won at, and he will certainly be test by the three Grade I closers in here Red Rocks, Better Talk Now and Grand Coturier. The one thing that is for sure is that Curlin has class, and like Dr. Fager and Secretariat before him top class dirt horses can excel on the turf.
Perfect Play Of The Day 10JUL
Belmont Park Race 1
Lets get right to the perfect power horse who is entered in Belmont's first. #9 Perfect Arrival has the cutback form and closing ability to get up at a nice price. This guy almost ran down loose on the lead, lone speed, dream like set-up Simeon three back and has since expanded his lung capacity with two nice long races. Should be primed to close like a freight train not that he cuts back to a mile and a sixteenth. Many of his rivals are either need the lead types, speed types or horse stretching out which may leave them empty in the lane. This is Perfect Arrivals first race over the widener which he should relish. I suggest a stout win bet and a saver exacta back wheel.
Belmont Race 1
Win #9
Flat Win Bet Cap Stats
31 6-4-3
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $82.60
$2 ROI $2.66
Lets get right to the perfect power horse who is entered in Belmont's first. #9 Perfect Arrival has the cutback form and closing ability to get up at a nice price. This guy almost ran down loose on the lead, lone speed, dream like set-up Simeon three back and has since expanded his lung capacity with two nice long races. Should be primed to close like a freight train not that he cuts back to a mile and a sixteenth. Many of his rivals are either need the lead types, speed types or horse stretching out which may leave them empty in the lane. This is Perfect Arrivals first race over the widener which he should relish. I suggest a stout win bet and a saver exacta back wheel.
Belmont Race 1
Win #9
Flat Win Bet Cap Stats
31 6-4-3
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $82.60
$2 ROI $2.66
09 July 2008
09July Play Of The Day
Belmont Race 3
Dig this now. I have never knowingly posted chalk as my play of the day as I focus on value with these picks. However Digger in Race 3 at Belmont look infallible. Those might be the famous last words of a capper but I looked at this heat from every angle and the only thing that could beat him is racing luck. He will not add much to my total but he may improve my strike rate.
Belmont Race Race 3
Win #5 Digger
Cap Stats
30 5-4-3
strike rate 17%
cumulative return $79.20
$2 ROI $2.64
Dig this now. I have never knowingly posted chalk as my play of the day as I focus on value with these picks. However Digger in Race 3 at Belmont look infallible. Those might be the famous last words of a capper but I looked at this heat from every angle and the only thing that could beat him is racing luck. He will not add much to my total but he may improve my strike rate.
Belmont Race Race 3
Win #5 Digger
Cap Stats
30 5-4-3
strike rate 17%
cumulative return $79.20
$2 ROI $2.64
08 July 2008
Curlin Licensed In New York Ships Thursday For Man O' War
The dream from March is coming true. Curlin will test the turf in the Man O' War with the long term goal of the Prix De Arc De Triomphe. He is flying in on Thursday and the hardcore fans will be at Belmont to see if he can make the form transition from dirt to turf.
It is very exciting that Curlin has an adventurous campaign in front of him. We can all be thankful that Jess Jackson is a sporting man of vision and courage. He is not a corporate small mind that would manage a racehorse of the highest caliber like a fast food franchise. Curlin is being pointed to a campaign that could stamp him as an all time great. This is a great departure from the modern day campaign where one small mind owner after another manages their Grade I horse to avoid failure at all costs. Curlin is being set up for greatness if he can complete plan A.
It is very exciting that Curlin has an adventurous campaign in front of him. We can all be thankful that Jess Jackson is a sporting man of vision and courage. He is not a corporate small mind that would manage a racehorse of the highest caliber like a fast food franchise. Curlin is being pointed to a campaign that could stamp him as an all time great. This is a great departure from the modern day campaign where one small mind owner after another manages their Grade I horse to avoid failure at all costs. Curlin is being set up for greatness if he can complete plan A.
07 July 2008
Rick Dutrow Has Saved Racing
Rick Dutrow is the savior that American racing has been waiting for. While many were offended by his brashness and lack of tact they completely missed that Dutrow's honesty opened up American horse racing to transparency. What no one had told him was that it's fine to pump your horses full of drugs, but not fine to go and tell everyone. Other trainers like Zito, Pletcher and Jerkens get a pass for their drug use while Dutrow due to his candor got hammered from all sides. It is almost like people do not like hearing the truth and prefer when people lie about it. Now with the truth appearing in the mainstream press and in blogs the momentum to reform racing is gaining a head of steam.
One jurisdiction after another is tightening up the rules. Just last week New Jersey raided their leading trainers barn and test for EPO. California has banned steroids. Without Rick Dutrow's honesty none of this could have never happened. People like Dutrow have their role in life and it is not to be some persons step stool to high moral ground. He is a very good trainer and his honesty is bringing real change to the game.
One jurisdiction after another is tightening up the rules. Just last week New Jersey raided their leading trainers barn and test for EPO. California has banned steroids. Without Rick Dutrow's honesty none of this could have never happened. People like Dutrow have their role in life and it is not to be some persons step stool to high moral ground. He is a very good trainer and his honesty is bringing real change to the game.
Wagering Syndicate Accepting New Members For Saratoga
A wagering syndicate which I am a founding member is accepting new members for the Saratoga meet. This syndicate's focus is on New York and goes after the pick 4 and pick 6. We have our own dedicated website where we discuss our plays and consider input from all members. Current members include long time serious horseplayers, an accountant, an engineering professional and a budding racing celebrity. Initial investment is modest for our Saratoga bankroll. E-mail me at the listed email if you are interested in gaining some leverage on the mutual pools while undertaking a group handicapping adventure.
05 July 2008
Ellis Park is Not Closing
Looks like the owner of Ellis Park was bluffing. A deal with the horseman was reached and Ellis Park is scheduled to open on Friday.
04 July 2008
04 July Play Of The Day Aerial Bomb Special
Belmont Race 5
Here is a real value play to kick off your holiday weekend. In the spirit of the holiday call it a parimutuel aerial bomb. Looking at the pace scenario of Belmont race 5 I Love #11 My Man Lars. Race is loaded with speed and this guy can close a ton. Love how this guy won at the longer distance and especially how he closed at the longer distances over the inner turf. He should love the Widener turf at a flat mile. The workouts are sharp and this barn is waking up. The price will be right as these connections do not attract much action.
Win # 11 My Man Lars
keeping track of the cap
29 4-4-3
strike rate 14%
cumulative return $55.80
$2 ROI $1.92
Here is a real value play to kick off your holiday weekend. In the spirit of the holiday call it a parimutuel aerial bomb. Looking at the pace scenario of Belmont race 5 I Love #11 My Man Lars. Race is loaded with speed and this guy can close a ton. Love how this guy won at the longer distance and especially how he closed at the longer distances over the inner turf. He should love the Widener turf at a flat mile. The workouts are sharp and this barn is waking up. The price will be right as these connections do not attract much action.
Win # 11 My Man Lars
keeping track of the cap
29 4-4-3
strike rate 14%
cumulative return $55.80
$2 ROI $1.92
02 July 2008
Ellis Park Closing-Handicapper Friendly Owner Out Of Game
Ellis Park owner Ron Geary reported that the upcoming Ellis Park meet will be canceled. As for plans on opening late or next year “I don’t have any plans on opening it again as a racetrack,” Geary said in a telephone interview. “That’s for sure.” While Geary was a handicapper friendly owner, one less track is good news for stretched thin horse populations.
Geary was a inventive owner who introduced handicapper favorable bets like the 4% takeout pick 4. Unfortunately the bet did not help the Ellis Park bottom line. The increase in handle on the pick 4 did not negate the loss in takeout, showing that horseplayers prefer action over a edge. The bet was to be canceled for 2008.
This is a good thing. The good news in all this is that field size should increase at tracks like Arlington, Colonial, Mountaineer, River Downs, Indiana Downs, Presque Isle etc, etc, etc. With Calder turning into a complete joke many of the connections have moved to New York improving fields up north. So many tracks on the "B" circuit dilute the product. With tracks closing the product will be bolstered elsewhere.
Yes it is preposterous to compare Ellis Park to a boutique meet like Keeneland but these boutique meets are special because they are something to look forward to and do not drag on endlessly. There are so many American horse racing meets that drag on like an arctic winter or a herpes infection. Royal Ascot is special because it is run only one week a year. Saratoga is special because it is a meet filled with quality in a area with no flat racing ten and a half months of the year. When something is rare and of quality the public clamors for it and looks forward to it. Racing would do good to let the natural market forces cull quantity and increase quality.
Geary was a inventive owner who introduced handicapper favorable bets like the 4% takeout pick 4. Unfortunately the bet did not help the Ellis Park bottom line. The increase in handle on the pick 4 did not negate the loss in takeout, showing that horseplayers prefer action over a edge. The bet was to be canceled for 2008.
This is a good thing. The good news in all this is that field size should increase at tracks like Arlington, Colonial, Mountaineer, River Downs, Indiana Downs, Presque Isle etc, etc, etc. With Calder turning into a complete joke many of the connections have moved to New York improving fields up north. So many tracks on the "B" circuit dilute the product. With tracks closing the product will be bolstered elsewhere.
Yes it is preposterous to compare Ellis Park to a boutique meet like Keeneland but these boutique meets are special because they are something to look forward to and do not drag on endlessly. There are so many American horse racing meets that drag on like an arctic winter or a herpes infection. Royal Ascot is special because it is run only one week a year. Saratoga is special because it is a meet filled with quality in a area with no flat racing ten and a half months of the year. When something is rare and of quality the public clamors for it and looks forward to it. Racing would do good to let the natural market forces cull quantity and increase quality.
Judge Clears Way For Curlin To Race Anywhere
With the transfer of ownership approved it appears that Curlin is free to race where his connections please, pending state approval. This was reported last week and it has indeed become reality. This is very good news for the game and for the most exciting campaign in American racing. Hopefully Asmussen and Jackson choose Belmont and the Man O' War on the 12th of July for Curlin's next race. We will be on hand to give a report if the Man O' War is the choice.
01 July 2008
Proud Spell DQ In The Mother Goose Was Justified
The DQ in the Mother Goose was a good one. Right near the wire Proud Spell powered into the side of the Never retreat not only taking her path, but moving her over. This happened as they were dueling for the place in the shadow of the wire. It clearly effected the placings. (this is very clear on the head-on replay view which is a must see)It was a power foul from a ship-in rider who was all over the track for nine furlongs.
PETA was foolishly blasting Saez for his ride on Eight Belles, they should take a look at his ride in the Mother Goose. PETH (people for the ethical treatment of handicappers) should take an even closer look. Saez and Eight belles find trouble four separate times in this four horse field. First there is the stumble out of the gate. Not his fault but it hurt. Then he rushed up into a switch on the rail on the backstretch. Not a good place to be at Belmont which favors outside stalking trips. Then at the top of the lane they steady while in the same rail switch as the backstretch, being squeezed back as the four horse field turn for home. Then they switch to the outside to find room but there is none, he is in another trap. Then they dive to the inside, find some room and Proud Spell surges forward. However in the shadow of the wire Proud Spell plows into never retreat and earned the DQ down to show. Saez is a young guy and hopefully he will learn from this one.
Chris McCarron runs a jockey school in Kentucky, he should use this Saez ride in his Belmont 101 class. It was a bad ride in many ways and he earned the DQ in the shadow of the wire.