Do Low Minimum Wagers Lead To Degenerate Gambling?

This ought to be a hit amongst the action junkies, Churchill is going to lower the minimum wager on pick threes and trifectas to fifty cent starting today. With handle taking a slide across the board tracks have to angle for every edge to make sure they hold their share of the shrinking parimutuel pie. Takeout on these wagers is 19%.

The good news is that this gives horseplayers more options at the low end, the bad news is that another avenue of low minimum degenerate gambling has been widened. Are these low minimum exotic wagers bad for "OTB type" action junkies? Would some people be better off if they focused on win, place and show? If punters can not afford the $1 pick 3 should they even play the pick 3? Is the industry casually introducing degeneracy to racing fans by instituting all of these low minimum wagers? Do I need to arm myself next time I go to the track to fend off all of the seedy fifty cent and dime players?




















Flushing OTB patron and sometimes Churchill Downs fan Dat Wi Nguyen was "very happy" when he learned about the $.50 pick 3

Entering The Nuclear Winter~ Play Of the Day

We are transitioning into the nuclear winter portion of the New York racing annum. Those left standing post-B.C. are the most dedicated sort. This is the time of the year when the racing can be monotonous -- in between all of the gray skies and frigid breezes there are nuggets of gold just waiting to be mined.

P.J. Campo has ran this beaten claimer condition "N3L or 3YO" for two years at Aqueduct. For the first few years the public struggled with the condition and we were able to find a nice edge on the races run in this condition. This type of race is a sweet spot for the handicapper that understands race conditions and would like to wager on a race that has the "stacked deck" of many easy tosses with just one or two contenders.

Aqueduct Race 9

Exhibit A is Geno Green. He could be a textbook example of the power horse that is going to win this beaten claimer condition time after time all winter. 4+ wins for a three year old going against a field of 4,5 or 6 YO's with only 2 wins. Once the public figures this out - they will soon enough- the price on the Geno Greens of Aqueduct will all be of the odds-on variety.

Geno Green looks like a solid rock to work around in this race. The Sedlacek barn would have to have rocks in their head to run One Lucky Date in this race; they will likely scratch for Thursday's race leaving Geno Green the dominant and likely lone speed. Geno Green is dropping off a win; this could raise some red flags for some but my vetting of the Repole Stable indicates that this is a highly positive move. What we really like is that Geno is in for the three year old condition while all others except for Jaystone are in for the N3L condition.

Jaystone may be value at 20-1 but he does not look like much competition for Geno Green. This leaves Geno Green as a "metal thing on the door that keeps that bad guys out" (I hate the L-word) type favorite. The kind of favorite to build plays around that are especially reliable in "nuclear winter" Aqueduct racing. We aim to be alive in the pick 4 with Geno singled at the tail end.

Stats (no crooked accounting here)
51 18-7-5
strike rate 35%
cumulative return 143.20
$2 ROI $2.81

The Old Man On Bobby Frankel

When I first started going to Aqueduct in the 1980's the trainer the old man always talked about was Bobby Frankel. He was always reffed to "as the greatest trainer ever". "it was a sad day when he went to California". When he would claim a horse it would "always be stepped up in class and win either first or second out. The old man "made it a habit to bet his horses first off the claim". When Bobby Frankel was based in New York betting him was "like taking candy from a baby". Success usually brings enemies. Back then Frank Martin used to "claim all the time off of Frankel for trainer Sigmund Sommer". Martin "would have to drop the horses claimed off of Frankel to win." Frank Martin's primary owner Sigmund Sommer "was a local Billionaire with almost unlimited resources but he could never claim off Frankel successfully" Frankel's greatest achievement was "claiming Barometer for $5,000 and winning the Brooklyn Handicap". The old man says "God Bless Bobby Frankel R.I.P".

Dirt Tracks Relegated to Nature Trails and Construction Sites

Unfortunately NYRA canceled this weekends Stuyvesant Handicap GIII $100k USD for older horses due to lack of interest from horseman. Meanwhile a few hundred miles away at Woodbine 12 horses are entered for the Autumn stakes GII $150K CAN for older horses. Similar purse, similar condition but one race can not even muster five participants while another is overflowing with entries. This illustrates the success of synthetic surface racing and the fading appeal of dirt racing.

While many fans of the sport have lamented the demise of dirt racing it seems that in places like New York dirt stakes racing has become an anachronism. The NYRA dirt stakes calender has become filled with short fields that are always at the mercy of weather. Up at Woodbine the stakes menu on the polytrack has flourished. Large competitive fields with shippers and little worry that weather will effect affect the races. Meanwhile at Aqueduct the weather played a major role in canceling the Stuyvesant. NYRA stakes coordinator Andrew Byrnes "“We decided today because we only had five entries and two or three of them said they were not going to run if it rained. The forecast calls for two inches (Nov. 14), so we didn’t want a field of two or three horses."

At Woodbine the Autumn Stakes attracted a competitive full field of main track and turf horses from coast to coast. Teide will ship in from the west coast, Sr. Henry from Keeneland, and Storm Caller from New York. Not one horse was to ship to New York for the canceled Stuyvesant. Woodbine is quickly eclipsing New York as the top east coast track for horsemen and horseplayers. The synthetic racing at Woodbine features large competitive fields that have generous returns. Competitive racing is the excitement that people look for when playing racing. While the horsemen have embraced synthetic racing, most American horseplayers still maintain an aversion to synthetic racing. The reliable speed horses, the mental shortcut speed figures and the quarterhorse "run and gun" style of running has lost the edge. Racing over the synthetic is fair racing. A poster who goes by"The Fatman" at paceadvantage outlines the aversion to synthetic track racing:

Those accustomed to SPEED BIASED DIRT TRACKS just can't come to grips with having to handle FAIR racing. There's more to racing than betting the speed. More to it than just looking at numbers, seeing who's fastest early and then just betting that horse. Well, at least that's the case when it comes to POLY. What I like about POLY is that the BEST horse has a chance in every race, no matter what the PACE. You can't say that about DIRT and you certainly couldn't say it about KEE and CALI, when they had those speed biased tracks.

The POLY HATERS can write whatever they want but it all comes down to not being able to handle the 'extra' that's necessary to win on these surfaces.

Almost forever the 'truism' was that SPEED usually wins. Not any more. The game is a bit more complicated than that on POLY.

While dirt racing in New York flounders, synthetic racing at Woodbine has blossomed. Synthetic surfaces may be the future, however in the breeding world synthetic surfaces have reawakened the past. The stamina breeding practices of past generations have have once again become the breeding ideal- while dirt speed breeding associated with breakdowns and distance challenged one-dimensional speed freaks has become the new anachronism. The horses, the prices and the future is in synthetic racing.

Breeders' Cup Trip Report

Arcadia Ca - After driving the limo all night on Thursday I caught the first flight out of Kennedy for Burbank on Friday morning. After pulling an all-nighter and then flying all morning, going to the track was out of the question. With the sleep situation critical I watched the Friday B.C. card from the hotel. After sleeping for 12 hours Friday night, I was roaring and ready to go for the Saturday card.









visually appealing scenery at Santa Anita photo credit East Of Allen

Santa Anita is a facility with visual appeal. This venue combines natural beauty with the architecture of the early 20th century. Santa Anita is right up there with American top-class racing venues like Arlington and Keeneland. Perhaps the best part about Santa Anita is the weather. The weather is a gift from the heavens-a combination of the warm sun of the desert with a hint of cool salty ocean air- a welcome respite from the brutal cold of New York winter. The only blemish is the smog that obscures the view of the huge mountains that abut the facility.









International Superstar L. Dettori up on Delegator

There was much bemoaning about the Breeders' Cup running in consecutive years at Santa Anita. However after witnessing the spectacle first hand, those grousers are wrong. With Santa Anita you are all but ensured grade I weather, the facility is beautiful and the area has outstanding infrastructure. Santa Anita is an easy place for horses and people like me to travel to. With great weather and fast/firm there is little chance for a washout. Who can forget the disastrous Monmouth Breeders' Cup; sloppy tracks and bog turf courses are not conducive to good racing or safety. That weekend will be remembered more for the ill fated George Washington than any of the winners. Even the last Belmont Breeders' Cup was a cold and nasty day. If the Breeders' Cup ever wanted a permanent home, Santa Anita would be a good choice.









packed grandstand and apron

Comparing a regular Saturday at Aqueduct to Saturday at the Breeders' Cup really exposes the problems of New York racing. Racing in New York seems to be dominated by only one type of fan, the middle aged to elderly urban working class male degenerate. At Santa Anita there was great diversity in the crowd. Everyone from the horseplayer to the tycoon to the rural horselover to the teenage girl with a horse fetish was in attendance. It was a nice mix and people were friendly, the strangers I was sitting with were even nice enough to invite me out to dinner when I told them I was traveling alone.



















Goldikova

The races were a nice mixed of longshots and relieable favorites. It was no secret but dirt horses and those stretching out are poor bets on synthetic surfaces. Once again not one horse prepped on dirt won a race at the Breeders' Cup. Horses cutting back in distance with previous turf or synthetic success dominated the races. It seems like the public is yet to master synthetic surface wagering, but the track plays fair. Some of these grousers dont like these new surfaces but this seems like the mindless complaining of people that refuse to adapt to change. For me it was a fair day in the parimutuel department. Goldikova was a short priced wagering highlight and I had a few bucks on longshot Furthest Land.









Furthest Land lands a mini-score

The real highlight of the day was undoubtedly Zenyatta. As a New York guy I never developed a Zenyatta-affection, but my heart softened for her today. She is a big, regal but smart looking mare; something really special. There is something different about her, it looks like she isn't trying but she covers so much ground. Mike Smith "She is sent from God. It is His filly. I think he wanted a horse and sent her down her to race against everybody" Fourteen for Fourteen can not be marginalized, the naysayers have been silenced.









Crowd before the classic

At Santa Anita she has a huge following. Trainer John Sherriffs "She loves the crowd. When people yell at her she does her little prance. I don't know. She has a relationship with her fans" There was this one part in the parade where the crowd erupted in applause, Zenyatta wheeled around, stopped and started to paw the ground and prance, the crowd went absolutely nuts for her- it was like the horse was mugging for the crowd. It was nice to see so much affection for a horse. When she won it was like the home team won a ballgame. It was great validation for a crowd that had largely showed up to see her. It was the kind of win that will mint a few thousand new racing fans.












Thousands of these signs filled Santa Anita photo credit AP

The Sport Of Kings As The King Of Sports

TVG was generous enough to sponsor the B.C. Mile. The B.C. Mile sponsor's parent company Betfair may just hold the key to making the Sport of Kings the king of sports once again. What Betfair did overseas is nothing short of revolutionizing punting. Every horseplayer that utilizes Betfair can not only bet horses at a fixed price, but they can lay horses that they feel are likely losers. Solid opinions based in reason are rewarded. Technology has changed the world, the betting exchange can change the horseracing experience for the fans. With the betting exchange, racing becomes a game of reason exposing competing games like slots as gambling vice. Betfair is a massive success and has allowed Betfair to purchase a controlling interest in America's TVG network.


The effect of a betting exchange is the empowerment of horseplayers. Instead of an parimutuel exotic betting lotto, where the chase of big scores can lead to long losing streaks, reason is the chief driver of the betting exchange. The betting exchange is the "Holy Grail" of technology that racing in America needs. Decades of marketing has failed to draw new generations to the racetrack; handles are tumbling and once packed grandstands have degenerated into lonely dumps. The betting exchanges is the breakthrough that will spark the renaissance that will bring horseracing to a new generation.

Free from much of the traditional restraint of Europe, America is a place of innovation. But America still uses a tote system from the 19th century while horseracing in the UK has moved on to the 21st century. There is a long history of American and Anglo cooperation, it is time the betting exchange comes to American racing. When the players can lay horses along with betting horses the game has the great appeal of reason. With so much competition in the gaming market a horseracing exchange like Betfair can propel racing above the gaming competition and expose games like fantasy sports as unthinking obsession. If Betfair was available in the States the Breeders' Cup could be an more appealing event. Would you take my fixed prices on the Breeder's Cup Classic?

Mine That Bird- I do not fancy his chances tomorrow, his race in West Virginia was a horror. I will lay at 20-1.

Colonel John- Proven over the surface and distance, would bet if I could find 20-1.

Summer Bird- An unknown quantity over the synthetic but proven over 12 furlongs. Conflicting signals so bet or lay for me.

Zenyatta- Morning line favorite steps well up in class, faces a large field for the first time at a new distance. Laying at 4-1.

Twice Over- Nice record and he is coming into his own late this year. No bet or lay from me.

Richard's Kid- Proven over the distance for a sharp barn, would bet at 15-1+.

Gio Ponti- Maybe the best horse in America not named Rachel, betting at 15-1+.

Einstein- Hard knocker may have lost a step. Not sure so no bet or lay.

Girolamo- Up and comer could be a future monster. Would bet at 30-1+.

Rip Van Winkle- Hoof issues are scary, no bet or lay.

Regal Ransom- Seems like he would have to be very lucky on the front end to hang on. I would lay at 20-1.

Quality Road- Was going to be my pick in the derby, I would gamble that synthetics are not his thing, would lay at 15-1.

Awesome Gem- Probable longest shot on the board, bettors could get 50-1 on the parimutuel tote, no bet or lay from me.

Jumpers Get No Repsect~Play Of The Day

How could a grade I winner be 15-1 in a non-winners of one race allowance? That is the case today with Spy In The Sky in Aqueduct's seventh race. We have a play here if Spy In The Sky goes off anywhere near the 15-1 morning line. At this 11 furlong distance stamina is key, many horses can not see out this trip. Spy In The Sky is a winner at 19 furlongs, he will get 11 furlong with panache. He beat Sermon Of Love by ten lengths at Saratoga and Sermon Of Love beat Chapin Beach who is favored over him here. The public does not get to handicap this type of race very much and this is a scenario which they are unfamiliar with. The obscure out of town trainer and the prejudice of gamblers against steeplechase races will all provide value. There could be generous returns here keying the long winded Spy In The Sky.

Aqueduct Race 7

Win #4 Spy In The Sky

Stats
50 17-7-5
strike rate 34%
cumulative return 120.80
$2 ROI $2.42

The NYC Marathon~Play Of The Day

Today they are going to run the NYC Marathon throughout the five boroughs of New York. Almost 40K runners are going to take on this course. While I am a firm believer in exercise I am also a firm believer in moderation. There is nothing moderate about 211+ furlongs of personal hell. I wouldn't make it past the first OTB on the course and would be credited with a big DNF if I ever attempted something like this. What is the point of running this far on concrete and asphalt? Just the damage to the knees alone negates any of the health benefits. If health is what you are after the road is through simplicity; eat like a peasant, think like a peasant and pray like a peasant. The founder of the NY road runners club and the NYC marathon was Fred Lebow. This man was an absolute health and running fanatic, but all of this running and focus on health did not ensure him a long life; he unfortunately died in his early sixties. My uncle Joe who smoked two packs of non-filtered Camels a day, never missed the daily double and whose only exercise was whacking himself with the DRF as he urged on the horses lived to the ripe age of 80. Clearly Uncle Joe did something right and the only running he did was to make sure he didn't get shut out at the windows. While these marathon fanatics are ignoring the modern benefits of transportation and discounting their own body crying out for a rest - we will be watching the real NYC marathon in Ozone Park.

The Marathon we will concern ourselves with is the Long Island Handicap, a more manageable 12 furlongs with 7 fillies and mares entered. Unlike punishing every part of the body by running 211+ furlongs; this marathon looks easy. If you look at races like how I look at races there really isn't any criticism for Criticism. Yes she is the favorite, but she is the alpha mare in here and holds all the trump cards; form, pace and class. There are worse things in life than betting on legitimate chalk, you could be out running 211+ furlongs for an ostentatious yet destructive show of self vanity. The race at Aqueduct will be over in two and half minutes. When the L.I. Cap is over you will have plenty of time to acquire true health of mind, body and spirit - it is surely not attained by self torture.

Play Of The Day
Aqueduct Race 7
Win #5 Criticism

Stats
49 16-7-5
strike rate 33%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.40

Photo Credit DailyMail UK

Polytrack Is Horseracing's Version Of The Toyota Prius

HRTV is re-broadcasting past Breeders' Cup broadcasts during the down time in the early morning hours. Yesterday the 1986 B.C. was shown. Jockey Chris McCarron was off all of his mounts with a broken leg suffered just days before the B.C. In 2009 television will shy away from showing a horse suffering a fatal breakdown, in 1986 they showed the breakdown that led to McCarron's injury 4 times! Snap, snap, snap, snap! This led me to reflect on cultural changes over the last few decades and the realization that racing is in worse shape than I previously thought. Not only is racing feeding the slot machine gambling vice that will succeed it, but racing is completely unfit for the new consumer morality that holds sway today.

For hundreds of years western civilization operated under the Christian moral order; the morality of the Old Testament Hebrews, the philosophy of Greece and the law of Rome. Virtue was a product of the love of God, the love of family and control of self passions. If you fulfilled these three requirements your conscience was clear. After the sexual revolution of the 1960's the moral order was out the door. Science was tabbed to run the show and it was scientifically proven that Darwinism could run the show better than a supernatural power, or so the social engineers thought. All of that stifling moral order self control that kept your pants zipped and passions in check was for old people and prudes. A new secular moral order based on unbridled sexual passion and consumerism was launched. It was from this new moral order that were blessed with things like Polytrack and organic brown rice pasta.


God became money, the family became your roommates or television watching mates. In the new morality self control was only limited by the extent of your means. A new morality replaced the old moral order. I will call it "consumer morality", or basically technology and social engineering in the place of the moral law written on our hearts. For an example of this new morality you only need to go to a grocery store and see consumer morality in action, the outlet "Whole Foods" is a chain based on making their customers feel morally good about themselves. When California mandated that tracks install a synthetic racing surface, they did this action with nothing but moral benevolence in their hearts.

This new morality is all about divorcing the repercussions from the action. You can consume as much as you like but make yourself feel better and choose the organic product. You can live really far from your job but choose the hybrid car to hurt the environment less. It is okay to cheat on your wife, but be sure to wear a condom and make sure your tryst-mate is on the pill. We can bomb a country in the Middle East and spread death but we are doing this to encourage "woman's rights". The new morality requires no effort. It is all about feeling good about yourself by doing what you what you wanted to do anyway, but doing it in a way that integrates technology to shield the world from the effects of your consumerism.

Polytrack is racing's big foray into this new morality; it was an attempt to mitigate horse breakdowns by applying technology. Judging by the reaction of the fans and the trainers this new morality has not worked well for racing. The breakdowns have not only continued but a new type of "soft tissue injury" has emerged. The fans crowded into OTB's and other wagering venues do not seem to share this "consumer morality" that much of the suburban middle class has embraced. If polytrack gets in the way of their golden rail speed bias angle there will be hell to pay. Parimutuel wagering on synthetic racing surfaces has disproportionately crashed, while handle on old style dirt like Saratoga has suffered more modest losses. There seems to be a moral crisis among American horseplayers when it comes to synthetic surface wagering; they do not share the altruistic goals and have not supported the endeavor. With horses getting hurt and bettors abstaining racing has a problem. Racing has not been able to divorce the repercussion of horse injury from the action of racing.

With so many options for entertainment or gambling vice why would new "moral consumers" choose a sport that brutally maims animals from time to time. They would choose to do something like skateboarding or if they wanted to gamble the choice would be poker where the only organic damage is the trees felled to produce the cards(can someone say fair trade organic playing cards!).

This leaves racing with only one core customer, the un-morale degenerate. The bourgeois consumer moralists are going to shun racing due to the occasional horse breakdown and the lack of "feel good" appeal. What racing is left with is those that are filled with vice, and those that go from one debauchery to the next without a care in the world. That is why racetracks and OTB's are filled with old men that burst with profanity, suck on cheap cigarettes and could care less about what you think of them. They are vestiges of a time long gone. The new consumer morality did not stick to these people and they likely would not have participated in the old order either if they were born 40 years ago. This is why the Prius is the rarest car in the Aqueduct parking when they open the meet later today.

Yankees Postpone World Series Due To Conflict With Aqueduct Opening Day

The Bronx- Citing sluggish ticket sales due to competition in the sports leisure market, the Yankees have postponed game one of the World Series to Thursday. Harold Z. Steinbrenner the managing general partner summed up the situation "there was no way we could go up against an attendance juggernaut like opening day at Aqueduct, even with poor weather they are going to fill the Ozone Park grandstand with 60K; while weather was a consideration only a fool would go up against opening day at Aqueduct " It seems like the parimutuel juggernaut once again has held sway in the sports world. The Yankees will be relegated to opening the series on Thursday. When asked why the Aqueduct meet is so long NYRA prez Charlie Haywood had this to say " our fans can not get enough of Aqueduct, it is an urban oasis of parimutuel splendor". The Yankees will be looking to capture their 27th World Series title when play opens on Thursday, the team from Philly will be looking to win consecutive titles.

Pennington Freed The Slaves/Play Of The Day

There was a time when I was beholden to the New York Jets football team. When I was a kid in Flushing, New York I lived in the shadow of Shea stadium. On Saturday I could be found atttending mass at St. John Vianney but the Sunday mass was in front of the television watching the Jets game. It was not just a television show for me. It was a passionate experience, and I was emotionally behind the Jets. The Jets were the extension of some sort of tribe that I thought belonged to.

The Jets never won a super bowl in those days but the hook was that they played in exciting games. There was that bi-lateral offense assault against the Dolphins in 1986. This game was pure sports excitement as both teams scored touchdown after touchdown and racked up stats that have yet to be surpassed. It was a huge thrill when the Jets went on to win in overtime 51-45. There were other great games like the miracle in the Meadowlands in 2000 which was selected as the greatest Monday night game ever. We could go on and on about the exciting moments following the Jets. If the Jets were anything they were exciting; tons of offense, and thrilling games. Jets fans had character, if you could stay loyal to this hard-luck loser with a multiple Super bowl winner playing in the same venue, you had proved your noble and loyal bent. But then came Chad Pennington.

Chad Pennington seems like a fine person, to his credit he seems like a man worthy of respect. However his one great knock is that he is a total bore to watch as a NFL quarterback. Going from the excitement of Ken O'Brien-he could have been great if he didn't take so many sacks- to the cannon of Testaverde left me accustomed to excitement when watching the Jets. When the ultra-conservative dump pass strategy of Pennington emerged, I yawned. The Jets offensive attack became the equivalent of going to the track and betting $2 show on every favorite. It was sometime during the 2002 season that the NFL lost its hold on me. I began to see it for what it was; a medium to get the male demographic watching television commercials. The games now seemed boring and mindless. The players were faceless mercenaries who changed teams over other year chasing dollars. I was done with it. Chad Pennington freed this slave.

In honor of Pennington freeing the slaves we will play his equine namesake in the Mohawk. The namesake has a nice lone speed inside post set-up.

Belmont Race 9 (pp link under stallion E Dubai)

Win #4 Pennington

Stats
48 16-7-5
strike rate 33%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.45

NYRA Sues Al Gore

Ozone Park - NYRA has taken the unprecedented step of suing Al Gore in New York Federal Court for fraud. Citing his work in "An Inconvenient Truth" NYRA has directly tied the fraud of climate change to decreased parimutuel handle that has placed NYRA and their 'Global Warming" extended turf season in peril. NYRA head Charlie Hayward "we bought into the global warming propaganda and it has cost us; we extended our turf season clear into December and now we have an obsolete condition book. It is mid-October and it has already snowed twice and we may have to shelf turf racing for the year " Promising not be fooled again by bogus environmental policy NYRA will revamp the 2010 condition book to reflect the post sun-spot colder weather conditions. The 2010 turf season will be moved back to late April while terminating some time in early October.

Going To The Beach Play Of The Day

The focus shifts out west to Keeneland and Santa Anita this week. Both tracks have great cards for Saturday while New York racing devolves into something only the most hardened of degenerates could withstand. In the Shadwell Mile Justenuffhumor looks like the best miler on this side of the Atlantic and be anxoius to see him win his first GI. However the real sultry action is at Santa Anita this weekend.

In the Del Mar Mile we have the first and second choice both front end runners. The favorite is Cowboy Cal. His gambit is running on the front end. The second choice also likes to run on the front end; that horse Monterey Jazz is a "need the lead" type of runner. With two of the most powerful horses dueling on the front end perhaps someone from the back of the back could take advantage a favorable pace scenario. A logical winner is Whatsthescript with Allicansayiswow providing longshot appeal. I like the sequence of races here and will start a pick three covering Skyrush, Global Hunter, Monterey Jazz, Allicansayiswow, Cowboy Cal and Whatsthescript.


Mine That Bird looked absolutely over the top in a very disappointing West Virgina derby run. He looks like he has no shot whatsoever in the Goodwood Stakes GI. The DRF even picked him to win which should be good for some sucker money in the wagering. Since the derby winner will be one of the favorites the Goodwood becomes a tremendous wagering opportunity. The logical one looks like Colonel John but I will spread a few deep in pick 3s covering Parading, Gitano Hernando, Richard's Kid, Monzante along with the Colonel. With Mine That Bird sure to be off the board this is a good race to play exactas and trifectas.

The last leg of the pick 3 is the Lady's Secret GI. This race will anchor my pick 3 play. While Zenatta has assembled an undefeated record this year her campaign has been a bit like the Harlem Globetrotters. Every time she races she gets to beat up on the same old Washington Generals. This time the Boston Celtics are coming to town and my money will be on the Celtics er. Cocoa Beach. Cocoa Beach is the first real challenge Zenyatta has had to face all year and I am going to gamble that she is not up to it. The single is Cocoa Beach. The reward in the pick 3 should be generous.

Santa Anita Race 6 Power 3 - 2,4,7,9,10 / 3,4,6,7,8 / 1

Santa Anita Race 8 Win #1 Cocoa Beach

Stats
47 16-7-4
strike rate 34%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.47

The Interpatation Of Saturday's B.C. Preps

The day had a wet forecast looming over it like a terminal prognosis. It thinned out the crowd and dimmed the spirits of those in attendance. However the early part of the day was dry, and it looked like the meteorologists were going to be completely wrong about a wet day of persistent light rain. They only thing they were wrong about was the intensity of the rain. Instead of light rain Belmont was walloped with a biblical strength drenching monsoon that quickly turned the fast track into brackish stream. The rain was cold, it was intense and it dominated the races, effecting times and results. The big story to emerge from these races was not a breakthrough performance and brilliant equine form but the utter dominance of the heavens over the results on Saturday.

The first stakes race of the day proceeded without any weather related interference. The heavy favorite Music Note was able to break out of the Pletcher trap set for her on the rail and draw off to a facile win.

While the horses were in the paddock for the Vosburgh the heavens opened up. A few miles to the north a powerful burst lightning illuminated the sky and deep growling thunder shook the grandstand. Within a matter of minutes the fast track was inundated with water. However the results were fairly formful with GI winner Kodiac Kowboy catching Fabulous Strike late near the wire.

The Flower Bowl was the wettest of the days races. This race was run in the most intense portion of the storm. The rain was coming down as hard as rain can fall from the heavens. It surely dominated the results here. Very slow fractions and an undoubtedly slick grass effected the results. However reason still held sway here. The winner Pure Clan is a Grade I filly and was the second choice in the wagering. I can only imagine that one or more of her competitors did not take kindly to being pelted with rain or the slick conditions under hoof.

The Turf Classic was also run in a driving rainstorm. Rarely are turf races run in these conditions. Visibility was poor as we could barely make out the runners on the backstretch. If someone told me that Interpatation was going to win this race wire to wire I would thing that they were delusional or quite confused. Fortunately for Bobby Barbara they would have been right. In a result that defied all reason we witnessed a horse in the winners circle who had not won in over two years; his last score in a ungraded race at Philly. Somehow Interpataion outgamed the best American older horse in training.

You would need a super-duper ego or passion fueled desperation to arrive at this interpretation pre-race. This result was in the spirit of outlandish interpretations like Freud's proclamation that all men are driven by the want of sexual relations with their mama. This is the race where the heavens and the deluge of water had the greatest effect. This was a strange race, run under perilous conditions. It was like have a yacht race in a typhoon; the conditions had greater effect on the results than the competition.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup was run over an extremely sloppy track. The absurdity of the Turf Classic was followed by a reasonable result. Summer Bird who has confirmed his affinity for wet racing surfaces outgamed Quality Road late for the win. This was a slow and tiring wet surface so it makes sense that the only horses in the field confirmed to like 12 furlongs was best in the lane at 10 furlongs.


Once again this years Breeder's Cup betting will be complicated by more surface questions. Significant horses like Gio Ponti and Summer Bird will have big questions associated with their handling of the pro ride surface. Will there be a transition issue out of these very wet races. Sometimes reasons yields to the absurd in racing as the results of the Turf Classic illustrated. Take these results with a grain of salt and consider the challenge of going from a brackish river of extreme rain and mud, to the arid strip of polymer, rubber and sand at Santa Anita. Compared to Belmont last Saturday; Santa Anita might as well be a synthetic planet somewhere between the moon and Venus. These are two extreme surfaces where just about anything can and will happen.

Local B.C. Preps Are A Huge Dud

The last few weeks I have been looking forward to "Super Saturday" at Belmont. Now that the card has been printed and the plans solidified I feel like I have a juvenile case of Christmas morning buyers remorse. That toy looked so good in the Toys-Я-Us flyer, but now that it is open it is quite the bore. This Saturday's Belmont card is not only a bore, it just may be defective. Those are not a gaggle of small parts, those small parts are the small fields we are forced to play with. What factors have contributed to the sharp decent of graded race quality at Belmont? Racing has attempted to expand by division and has compartmentalized the competition into too many small parts. Too many tracks, too many surfaces and too many divisions.

Thirty-one betting interests over Saturday's five Grade I races equals an average of 6 per race. It must have pained P.J. Campo to publish this card. At least three of the races will have a formidable odds-on favorite. Gio Ponti will be 1-9, Fabulous Strike looks like 2-5 and Music Note should be 1-5. Not only are these races unbettable but they are boring to watch. This is not about some degenerate needing action, it is about an entertainment venue having the attraction of a pet rock. Racing this boring is like watching old re-runs of the "A team"; no matter what happens you know what the result is before they start; so why watch? Racing intrigue thrives on competition and uncertainty. Horses need to brought together; now the 14 B.C. divisions and multitude of tracks are keeping them apart.

Never to receive much luck from the heavens NYRA also drew the cold and rainy combo from the weather hopper; conditions that are sure to further decimate attendance. Those that stay away will have plenty of company. Nothing speaks to the failure of racing more than the attendance numbers for a non-TV day at Belmont Park. These five Grade I races will bring out an estimated 7-8K in attendance. The second biggest race card in New York City and attendance is a more pathetic number than the field sizes. Some politician will try to fix this with slot subsidies. This is no answer but I understand that it is almost compulsory to install them to "keep up with the Jones'". A game with no fans that depends on slot subsidies will not survive. In the same way that a family on long term welfare will disintegrate into moral degeneracy a game on welfare will disintegrate too . The slots band-aid can not support a sport that has no public interest. Sooner or later the rug of slots welfare will be pulled out from under the game which will expose a wasted carcass. More must be done to restore the game to a healthy size.

Why are these field sizes being decimated? Could it be redundancy in stakes races? Deserted tracks putting up sizable purses to run races that nobody watches or cares about? While Belmont runs the Beldame, Philly Park will host the Cotillion the same day. Instead of a clash of Careless Jewel and Music Note; the race fan can sleep through two odds-on borefest five filly fields. While Belmont runs the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Hawthorne will run the Hawthorne Gold Cup at the same distance. If those cups are not empty enough some of the liquid has to be sent over to the Hoosier state for the Indiana Derby. Another competitor for dirt route colts that could have ran in Chicago or New York is the Ohio Derby also run the same day. Don't forget the Meadowlands just opened up and they too will run a series of stakes races that competes with the Belmont program.


The frustrating part is that it seems like there is nothing anyone can do about these fields getting chopped into smaller and smaller pieces. The market pressure is there to fold some of these tracks and restore field size. Handles have crashed as horseplayers head to the exits and funeral homes. However slot welfare is keeping many of these venues propped up and field size remains depressed. We can only watch from the sidelines as the intrigue and fans are sucked out of the sport like a door was opened up on a pressurized airplane mid-flight.

A really good example of a short field borefest is Sunday's Kelso at Belmont. This Kelso Mile is an underwhelming race. This race looks like it competed with the Cliffhanger at Meadowlands for entries , which also has a smallish field. Combine these two heats and we have a decent prep for the B.C. Mile. Decent races are hard to find in the era were tracks like the Meadowlands are propped up by Atlantic City subsidies causing all races to have small fields and zero intrigue.


The leading B.C Mile Prep in New York will at best produce a 40-1 chance if the connections choose to enter the B.C. Mile. It it did not help that the B.C. also sliced and diced this group by introducing a dirt mile. Not only are races getting split but whole divisions are getting split. Further divisions are being opened along surface lines. The three surface split among turf, poly and dirt horses has exasperated the situation. It is almost like a perfect storm has taken shape. A combination of too much slot subsidized racing, too many B.C. divisions and the new poly surface has sliced and diced the fields to a point critical point where human interest is lost.


Expanding racing by division is a horrible trend that must be reversed. The results have been dramatically terrible. Perhaps some of the dirt mile bound horses could have stayed on the turf and ran in the Kelso. The people in charge should return to their business school education and review the chapter on mergers. Someone needs to take the lead and show this industry how to merge these fields instead of expanding to an unsupportable size.

Take Your Time Albany

The Times-Union published a story about how SL green is the frontrunner for the Aqueduct slots contract that was approved in 2001. In the eight years since being approved gaming revenues have fell as the bubble economy burst. Not only is the economy a clear culprit but the revenues have been hindered as gaming has reached saturation levels. There are now casinos in most states bordering New York along with multiple locations within New York. What was once a long drive and a novelty; has become mundane and old-hat. Eight years and we still have nothing.

The important thing for Albany to remember is not to rush into anything. Other masterfully executed government ideas - take the community building high-rise public housing projects - are usually well thought out. I can not even think of a good casino that was privately built, can you? If the state wants to duplicate the success that was brought to the inner-city by the housing projects, it should take their time on the slot machine casino at Aqueduct. Albany seems so efficient and rushed getting these Aqueduct slots on line.

Spooky Mulder Update

Belmont named an overnight stakes race on the 25SEP09 card after 11 year old gelding Spooky Mulder. The Spook raced 84 times, won 34 races and earned $950K. What the numbers do not show is that he was born with tremendous courage. His gameness set him apart from other racehorses. There were many races were he looked beaten, but then he would pull victory from the grasps of defeat.

Among the cold hearted track degenerates the Spook had a cult following; these are among the most captious hardboots one could attempt to please. The Spook melted their hearts like they were made of butter. While other horses generally have brief careers Spooky Mulder held his form from his first race in 2001 -a $30K maiden claimer at Turfway; he won his first race- to his last win at Monmouth in 2008. In between he won dozens of allowance and claiming races. He finally won an elusive stakes race capturing an overnight stakes at Delaware in 2007.

It was nice to hear from Jason Blewitt on the "Belmont in 30" broadcast that Spooky Mulder has been retired to Scott Lake's family farm. The measure of racing's humanity is in the respect afforded to horses like Spooky Mulder in retirement. It seems like Spooky Mulder will have a fine retirement with lots of friends to race against on the pasture in Annapolis Maryland.

Best Of Spooky Mulder

Maryland Million Play Of The Day

Laurel Race 11 - The Maryland Million Classic
Going to continue the theme of fillies beating boys with Saturday's play of the day. For a change we are going to head south on I-95 to Laurel. Sweet Goodbye looks like a true alpha female as she has wired six out of her career eight starts. She surely will be out in front of these boys and is likely to take them wire to wire. An expected wet track should help her cause as her highest lifetime beyer figure was over a sloppy track and she has worked recently over a sloppy track. The 8-1 morning line would be fantastic but I am expecting a price like 5-2.

Win #10 Sweet Goodbye

Stats
46 16-7-4
strike rate 35%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.55

Rice On Ice

After an absolutely sultry Saratoga meet the Linda Rice barn has gone completely frigid. She is yet to win a race at Belmont and has failed with several short priced favorites. Today she had Meriwether Jessica who was bet down to 9-2 in the feature at Belmont. The filly never lifted her hooves and finished a well beaten eighth. The important thing for handicappers to take heed is that her barn is taking money with all of their entries like we are still at Saratoga. Unlike Saratoga her horses are running like they are going uphill. This creates many good betting races were you can be assured of a well backed horse not winning. She looks like a bet against for the foreseeable future.

Woodbine Mile Play Of The Day

Woodbine Race 10
That win bet on Grand Adventure is the play of the day. The price is too good to pass on.

Win #7 Grand Adventure

Stats
45 16-7-4
strike rate 36%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.61