The focus shifts out west to Keeneland and Santa Anita this week. Both tracks have great cards for Saturday while New York racing devolves into something only the most hardened of degenerates could withstand. In the Shadwell Mile Justenuffhumor looks like the best miler on this side of the Atlantic and be anxoius to see him win his first GI. However the real sultry action is at Santa Anita this weekend.
In the Del Mar Mile we have the first and second choice both front end runners. The favorite is Cowboy Cal. His gambit is running on the front end. The second choice also likes to run on the front end; that horse Monterey Jazz is a "need the lead" type of runner. With two of the most powerful horses dueling on the front end perhaps someone from the back of the back could take advantage a favorable pace scenario. A logical winner is Whatsthescript with Allicansayiswow providing longshot appeal. I like the sequence of races here and will start a pick three covering Skyrush, Global Hunter, Monterey Jazz, Allicansayiswow, Cowboy Cal and Whatsthescript.
Mine That Bird looked absolutely over the top in a very disappointing West Virgina derby run. He looks like he has no shot whatsoever in the Goodwood Stakes GI. The DRF even picked him to win which should be good for some sucker money in the wagering. Since the derby winner will be one of the favorites the Goodwood becomes a tremendous wagering opportunity. The logical one looks like Colonel John but I will spread a few deep in pick 3s covering Parading, Gitano Hernando, Richard's Kid, Monzante along with the Colonel. With Mine That Bird sure to be off the board this is a good race to play exactas and trifectas.
The last leg of the pick 3 is the Lady's Secret GI. This race will anchor my pick 3 play. While Zenatta has assembled an undefeated record this year her campaign has been a bit like the Harlem Globetrotters. Every time she races she gets to beat up on the same old Washington Generals. This time the Boston Celtics are coming to town and my money will be on the Celtics er. Cocoa Beach. Cocoa Beach is the first real challenge Zenyatta has had to face all year and I am going to gamble that she is not up to it. The single is Cocoa Beach. The reward in the pick 3 should be generous.
Santa Anita Race 6 Power 3 - 2,4,7,9,10 / 3,4,6,7,8 / 1
Santa Anita Race 8 Win #1 Cocoa Beach
Stats
47 16-7-4
strike rate 34%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.47
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label colonel john. Show all posts
Showing posts with label colonel john. Show all posts
09 October 2009
27 August 2008
Breeder's Cup Advance Look
Two months out from the Breeders Cup and the storyline is taking shape. With the switch to the new Pro-Ride surface Europeans will be lured into races traditionally dominated by the Americans like the Classic or Distaff(Ladies Classic). For a great run down of all the contenders check out this sharp resource that provides tremendous information on Breeders Cup Betting. Bodog has a tremendous amount of information on all of the Breeders Cup contenders and is the place where savvy handicappers make their plays.
Classic
This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors
Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.
Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.
Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.
Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.
Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.
Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.
Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.
Breeder's Cup Mile
Kip Deville- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.
Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.
Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']
TVG Sprint
Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.
In Summation- loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.
Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.
Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.
Classic
This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors
Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.
Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.
Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.
Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.
Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.
Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.
Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.
Breeder's Cup Mile
Kip Deville- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.
Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.
Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']
TVG Sprint
Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.
In Summation- loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.
Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.
Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.
04 April 2008
Weekend Derby Prep Action 05APR
This is one of the big weekends with the Illinois Derby, The Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. We are four weeks out from the First Saturday in May and the most exciting sports event in North America.
Santa Anita Derby Features the rematch of Colonel John and El Gato Malo with a supporting cast of hopefuls. The most viable price looks like Yankee Bravo who ran a credible race in the LA Derby. His deep closing style has been winning over the surface and he should have no issues with being wide.
The Wood Memorial is a good betting race as the 6-5 chalk War Pass looks vulnerable. As a handicapper you have to find reasons to beat chalk and the massive clunker that War Pass ran last out is reason enough to toss him at 4-5. Court Vision looks like a viable candidate to power past late as he is 2nd off the layoff and is proven over the distance and surface. The rain has been much lighter than forecasted over the last 24 hours never increasing in intensity past light rain and it has been mostly mist. Light rain is forecasted to end at 10am with cloudy conditions all day. The track should be good to fast.
Denis Of Cork is favored to Win the Illinois Derby.
Santa Anita Derby Features the rematch of Colonel John and El Gato Malo with a supporting cast of hopefuls. The most viable price looks like Yankee Bravo who ran a credible race in the LA Derby. His deep closing style has been winning over the surface and he should have no issues with being wide.
The Wood Memorial is a good betting race as the 6-5 chalk War Pass looks vulnerable. As a handicapper you have to find reasons to beat chalk and the massive clunker that War Pass ran last out is reason enough to toss him at 4-5. Court Vision looks like a viable candidate to power past late as he is 2nd off the layoff and is proven over the distance and surface. The rain has been much lighter than forecasted over the last 24 hours never increasing in intensity past light rain and it has been mostly mist. Light rain is forecasted to end at 10am with cloudy conditions all day. The track should be good to fast.
Denis Of Cork is favored to Win the Illinois Derby.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
