Each New Year provides a fresh impetus to take a look at ourselves and make a fresh start. If anyone knows about the power of fresh form it is the horseplayer. This is the time of year where we can make the changes that can propel a marginal player into the ranks of the winning players. Power capping is for people that love the game and love to play it with panache. If you are not here to win there is no point in playing this game. There is much easier stimulation/entertainment options offered elsewhere but there is nothing like horseracing as it combines the ultimate puzzle with the beauty and grace of the natural form.
The number one most neglected thing that horseplayers could do but don't do is record keeping. How do you know what you are going if you didn't know what you've been? Record keeping more than just accounting; it provides financial situational awareness. A good spreadsheet is like a navigational tracking system for the bankroll. Without record keeping a player can not be sure if they are winning or what is winning and how do the numbers stack up. It defers the power to the emotions; a horseplayer should be grounded in reason.
The real power of record keeping is that it is like the rabbit in a greyhound race. For the horseplayer the rabbit is profitability. Too many people do not know where the rabbit is and how to get to it. Record keeping places that rabbit right in front of your face and forces you to focus on it rather than drift like a rudderless ship. If you just closed out another losing year or are not sure what kind of year you had it is time to make a change. My suggestion is build a spreadsheet in excel and consult it on a regular basis to update your statistics. This was the turning point that ended my days as a parimutuel mamaluke and made me into a person with a profitable hobby.
Another thing horseplayers can do is square away their account situation. There are horseplayer friends in New Jersey that have been unnecessarily blocked from prime tracks such as Santa Anita, Churchill Downs and Gulfstream because of political infighting. There are ways and means around all of these annoyances that could stand in the way of cashing tickets and peace of mind. Don't let industry idiocy impact or political corruption impact your profitability. How about those still patronizing an OTB branch and paying government taxes on winnings, not only are they dwelling in a negative environment but they are funding political corruption. An easy New Years resolution is to change to a superior vendor and upgrade to a first-class online horse racing experience. The vendor you choose should bend over backwards to accommodate your needs. When you have a play of the day ready to go roll you should have the confidence that the wager will be paid off without the online interface crashing or the track not being available.
We could go one and on with with resolutions but I would rather have people focus on what is important. Record keeping is at the heart of reason and directs the horseplayer towards profitability. Record keeping has the potential to turn a negative gambling vice into a profitable hobby. Help with excel and building a spreadsheet is available, please inquire within.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label handicapping method. Show all posts
Showing posts with label handicapping method. Show all posts
20 January 2010
30 July 2009
No Program Numbers
A few years ago I was out in Vegas on one of these frequent excursions I go on. As much as I like playing horses I am also a card player going back to 1981. When I was 5 years old I played gin rummy just about everyday with Rose Casini and her elderly friends who used to babysit me.
For years I have been making money playing blackjack using my own personal martingale system, while the house had come close, they had not busted me out in years. As my winning streak grew year after year my confidence did not identify the danger of a big bust out while using my Martingale system. This was the day things went haywire for me in blackjack for the first time in a long time.
I had a large bet down after winning a bunch of hands in a row just a few minutes after arriving from the airport. I got dealt a pair of 6's which I split because the dealer had showed a bust card. Then unbelievably I got dealt another 6 and then yet another. So I was split four ways to the dealers bust card. The way things worked out I ended up doubling two of the hands and had a significant portion of my bankroll on the table. Long story short but the horror of defeat rushed over me and the dealer pulls a twenty one from out of nowhere. So now I was down and out. I went on tilt and lost the rest of the bankroll shortly after this bizarre hand just thirty minutes after arriving from New York. Dejected and rejected I moseyed over to the sports book to play my last $5 before I turned this gambling trip into a hike to Red Rock Canyon. With the bankroll brutalized I needed to walk off the pain/kill time. As I last ditch effort I sit down in the sports book to look at the racing form and try to make something out of nothing.
It was a Tuesday and 5 MTP to a race at Colonial downs. On Tuesday the Vegas racing form does not have program numbers only names. Quickly looking at the form the third horse down looked tremendous on paper. Form, class, speed and nice works. I look up and the horse is 75-1! What a great price! I run up there to the tellers and bet my last $5. Then I go back to the seat and notice my huge mistake. There was an entry and the 3 that I thought was 75-1 was actually the 4 horse One Genius who was returning from a 7 month layoff and was first time turf coming off horrible races while stepping up in class.
The horse I thought I was betting at 75-1 was actually the 6-5 chalk. As we move to post time the number 4 horse I am now stuck with clicks up to 99-1. Not only did I lose my ass at blackjack with uncharacteristic liberal play but now I am betting my last $5 like a moron on the wrong horses in the sportsbook.
They break from the gate and I have my head in my hands as I am mumbling some gibberish to myself. The 6-5 chalk takes the lead with the 4 horse One Genius tracking the pace in the pocket. They stay that way around the clubhouse turn and along the backside.
As they turn for home One Genius is still in the race. One Genius switches out and I switch out from the seat to the aisle of the sports book. I drop to my knees and start pounding the floor with both fists as I am yelling as loud as I could for One Genius to get up. This was championship caliber rooting drawn from my days at a dirty OTB in Queens, you know the kind of rooting that offends people. It was a nip and tuck duel for the entire length of the stretch with the chalk and One Genius head bobbing for what seemed like forever.
By the slimmest of margins one Genius scores by a zop in a very dirty photo. The feeling came over me when I knew I won like the feeling you get when you ride the Cyclone in Coney Island for the first time. It was a huge thrill almost like the adrenaline rush you feel when you get away from someone that is trying to kill you if you have ever experienced that. I was out of my mind in the sports book and the whole room was looking at the spectacle I had made of myself. When they post the prices I could not believe it. One Genius paid $217 to win. I have hit much bigger tickets and have done so with thought, handicapping, shrewdness and logic but this mistake hit was the biggest thrill I have ever had in horseplaying.
When someone who watched my hysterics stopped me to ask; how did I pick this crazy 99-1 horse? I paused for a nanosecond and was going to tell him about the program numbers/mistake. But them off the cuff I told him the horse was bred for grass and I knew he would run on grass and he was worth a shot at that price. Dumb luck is highly underrated.
For years I have been making money playing blackjack using my own personal martingale system, while the house had come close, they had not busted me out in years. As my winning streak grew year after year my confidence did not identify the danger of a big bust out while using my Martingale system. This was the day things went haywire for me in blackjack for the first time in a long time.
I had a large bet down after winning a bunch of hands in a row just a few minutes after arriving from the airport. I got dealt a pair of 6's which I split because the dealer had showed a bust card. Then unbelievably I got dealt another 6 and then yet another. So I was split four ways to the dealers bust card. The way things worked out I ended up doubling two of the hands and had a significant portion of my bankroll on the table. Long story short but the horror of defeat rushed over me and the dealer pulls a twenty one from out of nowhere. So now I was down and out. I went on tilt and lost the rest of the bankroll shortly after this bizarre hand just thirty minutes after arriving from New York. Dejected and rejected I moseyed over to the sports book to play my last $5 before I turned this gambling trip into a hike to Red Rock Canyon. With the bankroll brutalized I needed to walk off the pain/kill time. As I last ditch effort I sit down in the sports book to look at the racing form and try to make something out of nothing.
It was a Tuesday and 5 MTP to a race at Colonial downs. On Tuesday the Vegas racing form does not have program numbers only names. Quickly looking at the form the third horse down looked tremendous on paper. Form, class, speed and nice works. I look up and the horse is 75-1! What a great price! I run up there to the tellers and bet my last $5. Then I go back to the seat and notice my huge mistake. There was an entry and the 3 that I thought was 75-1 was actually the 4 horse One Genius who was returning from a 7 month layoff and was first time turf coming off horrible races while stepping up in class.
The horse I thought I was betting at 75-1 was actually the 6-5 chalk. As we move to post time the number 4 horse I am now stuck with clicks up to 99-1. Not only did I lose my ass at blackjack with uncharacteristic liberal play but now I am betting my last $5 like a moron on the wrong horses in the sportsbook.
They break from the gate and I have my head in my hands as I am mumbling some gibberish to myself. The 6-5 chalk takes the lead with the 4 horse One Genius tracking the pace in the pocket. They stay that way around the clubhouse turn and along the backside.
As they turn for home One Genius is still in the race. One Genius switches out and I switch out from the seat to the aisle of the sports book. I drop to my knees and start pounding the floor with both fists as I am yelling as loud as I could for One Genius to get up. This was championship caliber rooting drawn from my days at a dirty OTB in Queens, you know the kind of rooting that offends people. It was a nip and tuck duel for the entire length of the stretch with the chalk and One Genius head bobbing for what seemed like forever.
By the slimmest of margins one Genius scores by a zop in a very dirty photo. The feeling came over me when I knew I won like the feeling you get when you ride the Cyclone in Coney Island for the first time. It was a huge thrill almost like the adrenaline rush you feel when you get away from someone that is trying to kill you if you have ever experienced that. I was out of my mind in the sports book and the whole room was looking at the spectacle I had made of myself. When they post the prices I could not believe it. One Genius paid $217 to win. I have hit much bigger tickets and have done so with thought, handicapping, shrewdness and logic but this mistake hit was the biggest thrill I have ever had in horseplaying.
When someone who watched my hysterics stopped me to ask; how did I pick this crazy 99-1 horse? I paused for a nanosecond and was going to tell him about the program numbers/mistake. But them off the cuff I told him the horse was bred for grass and I knew he would run on grass and he was worth a shot at that price. Dumb luck is highly underrated.
12 March 2009
Speed & Florida Shippers
Two things to look for in the next few weeks at Aqueduct is speed and Florida shippers. Move both up a few notches. For most of the winter the track was deep, dry and tiring. There should be a few speed winners everyday that ran over a tiring surface last out that have darkened form. Prices will be available. The other power angle is the Florida shipper season has started. These Florida horses absolutely dominate for the next few months over the tired winter stock.
15 September 2008
What Is A Power Cap?
What is a Power Cap, is it this thing?
Definitely not.
Is it a special hat that you wear that magically directs you towards the winners of horse races?
No, once again it is not a cap that you wear.
Is it a computer program or a motor driven tool?
No it is not, the only power is organic and is supplied by the hand, wrist and arm muscles.
If it is not powered or a Cap what the heck is it?
The Powercap is an old fashioned pen and ink handicapping method to find winners at overlaid prices.
The Powercap is inspired by the principles of William Scott and Total Victory At The Track. Basically you are taking basic math, some elbow grease and track positional bias knowledge to outwork your parimutuel adversaries. While it can be tedious filling up notebooks with hand scribbled speed figures and run style equations it can also be very rewarding when your hand made proprietary information leads you to a generous scores.
Pictured below is the actual Powercap for Belmont race 8 and 9 for the 14 of September 2008. The circled numbers represent a form factor edge. A horse with numbers circled across the page holds an edge in every factor of the Powercap. The first equation on the left is PCR (Performance class rating) and is a equation that shows run style and overall ability. The higher the solution to the equation the better the horse. The second equation is ability time and the lower the number the faster the horse. The third group of three letters is a visual short hand for form. The forth notation is a class ranking based on the highest win/place finish and the final notation on the right may be shorthand for a cutback in distance a stretchout in distance or second race off the layoff or something else pertinent. The numbers on the opposite side of the page were the days late wagers, a grand slam and a late pick 4.
The primary edge of the Powercap is that you are creating your own information. This is proprietary information that nobody else has, unless they steal your ledger. Most of your adversaries in the parimutuel pools are relying on commercial speed figures, sheets or computer picks. Few have the time or will to produce something unique. With commercial speed figures similar information leads to common answers. The Powercap picks originate from a unique point of view, which means a Powercapper is trampling an unworn path, which leads to uncommon answers to the handicapping puzzle. Uncommon answers are the key to parimutuel success. I urge you to heed the words of Robert Frost and find your own road to success in this game.
Definitely not.
Is it a special hat that you wear that magically directs you towards the winners of horse races?
No, once again it is not a cap that you wear.
Is it a computer program or a motor driven tool?
No it is not, the only power is organic and is supplied by the hand, wrist and arm muscles.
If it is not powered or a Cap what the heck is it?
The Powercap is an old fashioned pen and ink handicapping method to find winners at overlaid prices.
The Powercap is inspired by the principles of William Scott and Total Victory At The Track. Basically you are taking basic math, some elbow grease and track positional bias knowledge to outwork your parimutuel adversaries. While it can be tedious filling up notebooks with hand scribbled speed figures and run style equations it can also be very rewarding when your hand made proprietary information leads you to a generous scores.
Pictured below is the actual Powercap for Belmont race 8 and 9 for the 14 of September 2008. The circled numbers represent a form factor edge. A horse with numbers circled across the page holds an edge in every factor of the Powercap. The first equation on the left is PCR (Performance class rating) and is a equation that shows run style and overall ability. The higher the solution to the equation the better the horse. The second equation is ability time and the lower the number the faster the horse. The third group of three letters is a visual short hand for form. The forth notation is a class ranking based on the highest win/place finish and the final notation on the right may be shorthand for a cutback in distance a stretchout in distance or second race off the layoff or something else pertinent. The numbers on the opposite side of the page were the days late wagers, a grand slam and a late pick 4.
The primary edge of the Powercap is that you are creating your own information. This is proprietary information that nobody else has, unless they steal your ledger. Most of your adversaries in the parimutuel pools are relying on commercial speed figures, sheets or computer picks. Few have the time or will to produce something unique. With commercial speed figures similar information leads to common answers. The Powercap picks originate from a unique point of view, which means a Powercapper is trampling an unworn path, which leads to uncommon answers to the handicapping puzzle. Uncommon answers are the key to parimutuel success. I urge you to heed the words of Robert Frost and find your own road to success in this game.
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