Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

21 October 2008

Million Dollar Pick 6 Carryover At Belmont

If anyone thought that the big pools this week started on Ladies Day at the Breeders Cup they would be proved wrong. A few days of bombs at Belmont has led to a $ 1 million carryover in the pick 6 pool. Wednesday's sequence looks like a challenging sequence and we can expect the pool to blossom into a $3 million behemoth. My meager bankroll is $100 but I will take a shot. The forecast is dry, cold and winds gusting to 25 knots from the north. It will be a great day to be lucky.

Race 4- Maiden two year olds take to the turf for a 7 furlong test. We will get a good look at these guys before the race in the paddock, a luxury we will not have the rest of the sequence. Before any paddock inspections I have the race down to #1 Ducduc, 3 Winthrop House and #6 Master. If any of the first timers take money and look the part I would be inclined to use them.

Race5- Now maiden claimer two year olds take to the turf in a 6F sprint. My top pick here is first time start #10 Kaleidoscope Sky who is bred well and makes sense for a a $75K tag first out. The works look sharp. I will also use #6 Missile Impossible.

Race 6- Non winner of three races lifetime or 3 year old fillies going 7 furlongs on the turf is the condition. There are two fillies that have won 3 life time and are in for the 3 year old condition. Those two are 1A Wonderwho'sbest and 8 Discoverylaunch. Wonderwho'sbest got beat by Peleliu last out while Discoverylaunch beat Peleliu. I am not going to use either filly and will single a 2nd off the layoff mare who has the right running style for this race. #5 Smartgabrielle finally gets away from the tricky rail post and should run these girls down late.

Race 7 - The set up is absolutely there for Solid Strike if he is up to the task of going wire to wire on the inner turf. He is the clear lone speed and should be clear and under no pressure. I consider this a drop in class as he does not need to face any stakes horses here. The early fractions of the last race were BS as all times going 1 1/16th are never accurate for some reason. Solid Strike was pressed somewhat hard by the 2-1 chalk and quit at the top of the lane. If is
up for the race Solid Strike has the set up. Should be a good price too. However the quit that Solid Strike has shown precluded him from being a single. Have to take Leadwithyourchin as well on the drop in class 2nd off layoff.

Race 8 - Doree Daze looks like she should should be able to go easy on a slow pace. She has edges across my worksheet in every category of the powercap. The rest of the field looks like plugs. I did give Zip By You a 2nd look but she has had so many chances this year at this
putrid condition. Doree is another single.

Race 9 - The last race and another maiden test for two year old. Going to use the horses with past excuses or dropping form maiden specials. I have #3 Tomorrows Roses, #5 Life support, #7 Angel Aly and #12 Deadlocked.

Draft ticket 1,3,6 / 6,10 / 5 / 1,3 / 6 / 3,5,7,12 = $96

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