Aqueduct Race 8 Stymie Stakes
The handicap group this year has been ripe for raider this year over the inner and Researcher was able to drop into town and score two back. While Researcher has a shot today I favor another horse on top for today's race. Manteca has a great chance to validate his credentials and win the Stymie at a price.
Manteca has been impressive winning races from off and on the pace. The biggest question with Manteca is class, as he is stepping up in class. Most cappers' will dismiss him on the step up from statebreds to open stakes but we will look closer at his form. When a horse like Manteca can win from on and off the pace that is a sign of class. ordinary horses can only do one thing, Manteca can do it all. His form shows wins at various distances showing different run styles each time. Like Machiavelli said to be truly great sometimes you have to be a fox and sometimes you have to be a lion, Manteca has the class to be what he needs to be to win the race. Today he will be a lion from off the pace and validate his class.
The price should be juicy on Manteca, we are still catching him on the upside. Watch the stretch run of his last race, as soon as Maragh gives Manteca his cue he reacts confidently and quickens, it was a real racehorse move. His paper form has several factors that will ensure a generous price. His last race has slow fractions that will turn off the public, his speed figure was slow and the DRF closer look dismisses him as a non-contender. We should see somewhere between 7-1 to 10-1. Manteca is a great bet.
Win bet on Manteca and a exacta box with Researcher.
Win #5 Manteca
65 14-9-10
strike rate 22%
cumulative return $144.30
$2 ROI $2.22
Power cap- existential handicapping
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2 comments:
Manteca was far from a lion here. More like a rabbit really, he went to the front and dueled which is kind of a cheap thing to do. I overestimated his class and paid the price. He was off the board like someone else we know.
stats
66 14-9-10
strike rate 21%
cumulative return $144.30
$2 ROI $2.19
I don't know, I just think the speed duel did Manteca in. To run 1:11 in a race going 1 1/8 m is suicide, the first and second play finishers came from the back of the pack and one was 40-1! Will play back Manteca and True Resurgence who held well.
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