Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

22 January 2010

Consistent Value At The Big-A




If you follow the Big-A there are some great wagering opportunities. Many of these favorable situations are based on the masses betting the usual suspect connections when they have no shot. In my development and socialization as a horseplayer I have learned to respect the game. However I do not have the same level of respect for the masses that play the game against me. The masses are lazy, they move in herds and do the same things over and over again. Their favorite shortcuts are betting on names they associate with winning. This is called "jockey capping". While I concede that some of these connections are superior to their competition; the fact remains that they lose 75-80% of the time. It is in this area -separating horses from the connections- were the public fails. Betting the overlays is where the winning horseplayer should make a home; using the public tendencies to your benefit.

To help chop the horseracing world down to size I focus on NYRA racing. This gives me the home court edge almost all the time, I know the trainers, the horses, the jockeys. Most importantly I know the tendencies of my parimutuel competition. The people in the OTBs of New York love to bet connections. When something or someone is in fashion they bet them every time. Jjust like when Pavlov's dogs would salivate when old Pavlov would ring a bell these connections salivate every time they see Dominguez listed as the jockey.

Among the jockeys racing in New York Ramon Dominguez has monopolized the affections of the contingent of "jockey cappers". He is a family man that I respect, a great jockey but he is not god. He is not going to make a an uncompetitive horse win a race. He rides well, is supported by trainers with live horses and he wins many races. However he is overbet by the public even when he should not be bet.

Consider this example. In today's first race Dominguez had the mount on "Fuzzy's Story". This horse was 1 for 8, just got thumped last out at Philly for 15K N2L. Furthermore the race at Philly was won by a 38-1 longshot that emerged out of a weak 12K maiden claimer at Philly. The place and show spots where also claimed by longshots that would have been 50-1 today. He should have been 10-1 in this 14K claimer for three year old horses instead 5-2. "Fuzzy's Story" was sure to have a sad ending today; this horse was emerging out of a very weak race. Rather than the 10-1 he should have been the public bet him down to 5-2. The only expaination is that the public has a betting Dominguez fetish.

The winner of today's race "Irving Rules" broke his maiden for 35K in a strong race. The race that Irving Rules emerged from yielded five horses that returned to break their maiden. This powerful winner -who scored by six lengths- was sent to the post at nearly 7-2. Why was the price so generous? The public has a history of cashing tickets on Ramon Dominguez and they backed him instead of the best horse.

The title of "king of the overbet trainers" goes to Rick Dutrow of the Dutrow training dynasty. The one truth we can all agree on with Mr. Dutrow is that he sends his horses to the post ready to run. His stable is a betting stable. When his horses are live money floods in early; his horses routinely open up at 1-9 on the parimutuel tote. The kicker with Rick Dutrow is that so many people that like to bet on him. Even when his first team of supporters do not show up there is a cache of reinforcements-presumably dumb OTB money- betting on him even when his horses are not live. These people show up in droves with late money to bet his horses. Sometimes he gets bet when he has no shot by this late money.

Consider Aqueduct's seventh race on 18JAN10. This was a showdown between two stakes placed sprinters; Out Of Respect and Dahlgren Chapel had this field dominated as both have been competitive with the cream of the New York Bred sprinter crop. Shockingly neither went to the post as the favorite. The Rick Dutrow trained Cajun Jet returning from a lengthy June layoff was bet all the way down to 8-5. Cajun Jet was emerging out of a very weak race; not one horse from that race has ever gone on to break it's maiden. The long layoff was surely prompted by an injury. When the winner-Out Of Respect- hit the wire Cajun Jet was in a holding pattern 12 lengths behind second place finisher Dahlgren Chapel. Cajun Jet had little to no shot of winning the race but was made the favorite on the good name of his trainer Rick Dutrow.

There are surely others that seem to take too much money. Then there are surely times when I bet on these guys as sometimes they have horses that absolutely dominate their races. The best bets are when I like a horse ridden by a jockey that is not so much in fashion, trained by a second tier trainer and the competition has no shot but is trained ridden by one of the masses favorite connections. In these situations you are sure to receive a generous price; really it is a gift from masses and their foolish ways.

2 comments:

Power Cap said...

The public fumbled today's races terribly. Dominguez/Dutrow scored with the powerful favorite in race three. However Doniguez didn't really have any other live mounts yet he was no more than 3-1 on any of them. What were they thinking betting the Dutrow/Dominguez collaboration "The Vin Man" down to 4-5 in race 6? This horse has lost 18 races in a row dating back to 10JAN09. Those two names together have an exponential effect on the uninformed and throws the "jockey cappers" in to a frenzy.

Anonymous said...

PC
Maybe you could start a "not play of the day." I've read that bettors can bet against horses on Betfair(?)
RG