Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

05 March 2010

Derby Future Pool Two Rundown




Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2

Later today Kentucky Derby future pool two kicks off. There are a few horses I am interested in and a few that look like gross underlays. This wager can be fun because you sit on it for weeks and weeks. Like a child expecting a Christmas gift, the joy is in the anticipation. With this wager you can maximize your anticipation and perhaps make a nice score.

50-1 ML on Odysseus in pool two is a must play. This horse was so impressive last out; this is a work in progress that is exceeding expectations. His connections are top notch and quickly groomed Bernardini from Florida nobody to classic glory in 2006. If Odysseus wins the Tampa Bay derby by five lengths he will be one of the favorites on Kentucky Derby day. Now is the time to invest in this horse while he still has a bit of anonymity. There is still time to get ahead of the curve on this colt.

Lookin At Lucky was very impressive last year; duly he was awarded the eclipse for champion two year old colt. If he somehow sneaks up to 8-1 he could warrant a play. If anybody knows how to win the Derby it is Baffert; my gut tells me that Lucky is going to win both the Rebel and the Arkansas derby. With those two wins on his PP's he should be 8-5 on derby day. Getting around 8-1 on him would be sinful. The ever fickle public may back off him due to his inactivity and the looming can he win on dirt question.

6-1 on Eskendereya is a terrible price. Not only did this colt go wire to wire on the "gimicky" Gulfstream speed bias but there are so many speed horses in this years potential field that could spoil his front running gambit. Anyone betting this horse at 6-1 is accepting terrible value. They are on the short end of the public's opinion curve. It may be punter cliche but if you missed the wedding don't show up for the funeral.

All other three year old colts at 7-2 may not be the worst bet. It is effectively a bet on a few hundred contenders that may be show improvement in the next two months. You will likely get the winner of the Gotham. Then there is the up and coming colt like Drosselmeyer; this is a colt that can surely get the distance and hails from top connections. You will also get a horse like Miner's Reserve who will surely be pointed to the derby for the Zito barn. There is a real buzz about Miner's Reserve from Florida. The all other three year olds is a good package deal.
---------------------------- --- -- ---------- ml/day 1 odds
1AikeniteTodd Pletcher5048
2American LionEoin Harty3060
3Buddy's SaintBruce Levine1212
4CaracortadoMichael Machowsky1227
5ConnemaraTodd Pletcher2032
6ConveyanceBob Baffert1226
7D' FunnyboneRichard Dutrow, Jr.2024
8Dave in DixieJohn Sadler3027
9Discreetly MineTodd Pletcher3032
10DublinD. Lukas158
11EskendereyaTodd Pletcher67
12Jackson BendNicholas Zito2044
13Lookin At LuckyBob Baffert66
14NextdoorneighborMichael Machowsky3099
15Noble's PromiseKenneth McPeek3024
16OdysseusThomas Albertrani5027
17Radiohead (GB)Richard Dutrow, Jr.2031
18RuleTodd Pletcher2019
19SetsukoRichard Mandella5091
20Sidney's CandyJohn Sadler2042
21Super SaverTodd Pletcher2030
22Tempted to TapitSteve Klesaris5048
23Vale of York (IRE)Saeed bin Suroor3026
24All Other Three Ye
7/27/2

10 comments:

Power Cap said...

Odyssues is getting hammered from 50-1 ML down to 27-1. Since he is not running this week I think he is likely to rise in price and settle at about 33-1.

Vic said...

Have never been sure how this works.If you were to bet now at27-1,are you locked in to that price,or would you get the closing price on Sunday,for better or worse?Thanks,Vic.

Power Cap said...

These future pools are parimutuel. Someone who wagered today will not find out the final price until Sunday evening.

Amateurcapper said...

Vic,

If you wanna bet this, wait until the last possible minute (it closes Sunday, March 7 @ 3p.m. Eastern) to be sure what your odds will be. Your 27-1 could become much less by closing.

Amateurcapper said...

PowerCap,

With 'Lucky not racing until next weekend, you may get that 8-1. Would you play him straight or use him top and bottom in exactas?

Great advice on Eskendereya. I believe he can be had on Derby day for that price.

IMO, Odysseus is getting too much press to be higher than 25-1 and could get bet to the 18-1 range when it's all over. Blooming too late to be draped with roses...but with steady development he could be adorned with Black Eyed Susans.

What price do you believe "all others" will close at?

Thought-provoking stuff, as usual!

Power Cap said...

@Amcap Odysseus is taking money, must be due to those loquacious bloggers touting him all over the place. He did rise a bit to 31-1 today so maybe 30-1 could be the final price. The hype machine is finished so I think the money he is going to take is the early money.

All others could hang at 7/2. Not a great price but it could be used as part of a dutch strategy.

As far as Lucky goes I am just playing the future win pool. I don't think I could absorb the mental trauma of holding on to a future ticket for two months only to get split in an exacta.

Whatever horse runs a sharp race tomorrow will get hammered in the pools on Sunday to extreme underlay.

Horse Racing Nation said...

Power Cap,

You are spot on with the field being a good price at 7-2. There are plenty of live horses in there. Besides the ones you mentioned, there is also Stay Put, Backtalk, Schoolyard Dreams, Fly Down and Lentenor.

People focus too much on the end result and the potential $9.00 payoff. But if you get a couple dozen live horses, plus several chances in the Derby gate to get that 7-2, then that overall value is definitely there.

Power Cap said...

We closed out with 1 unit bets on Odyyseus @ 25-1, Looking At Lucky @ 9-1 and all others @ 3-1. The underlaid Eskendereya @ 5-1 pumped up the prices on our horses.

Amateurcapper said...

I'm not sure if it's a case of "great minds think alike" or "misery loves company", but I also settled on LOOKIN AT LUCKY. Let's hope he's as good as we think :-)!!!

Amateurcapper said...

Power Cap,

Sittin' pretty after today...

What do you make of ODYSSEUS' trip? Was it a case of him tiring at a slower rate than his photo partner and the rest?

LOOKIN isn't just "lucky", he's really good!