Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

04 November 2010

Breeders' Cup Roundup, Friday edition




The first day of the two-day Breeders’ Cup program is on tap with 14 high-class races carded and it has never been a better time to be a spot player. With so many races to choose from a player can bet into the races that are in their wheelhouse and sit out the races that aren’t to their preference.

Marathon

The Sprint used to be the kickoff race for the program back when there were only seven races held. Twice the amount of races scheduled, double up the distance of the first race to be run. This cannot be a coincidence with the way they carded this. The Europeans sent their allowance grade runners in this race too, parroting what their American counterparts do with marathon dirt races on a yearly basis.

Awesome Gem is back to take another crack at the Breeders’ Cup, the seven year old gelding has been to the big dance three times prior and his best finish was a third in the 2007 Classic. Looking at his record two things are apparent, the first and most obvious is that he finishes second a lot with 13 placings out of 38 starts and the other is he may better on dirt than synthetics. His record on dirt is three wins and five on the board finishes out of ten starts, his record on synthetics two wins and seven on the board finishes out of 16 starts.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

This is the first wave of European turf invaders, Together leads the foreign charge in this race with a grade three win and a place finish facing grade one competition two starts back. Winter Memories has a big closing kick and the pedigree that this event was made for with Memories of Silver as the dam. Winter Memories had only two horses beat and was six lengths out of it with 5/16 of a mile left and circled the field to win easily on a yielding course in her last start. She could be a star on the rise.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Informed Decision is the first of four horses trying to repeat from last year’s success in the Breeders’ Cup. I’m sure Vegas has a proposition bet on which horse or horses will repeat in this year’s renewal and if they are offering this proposition bet Informed Decision has to be highest odds of the four. She has lost a step or two from the monster year she had in 2009 when she won six of seven.

A longshot worth a look is Rinterval, she faced Zenyatta two back and was in the teeth of a fast pace last out in the Spinster. The quarter of a mile cutback and switch to dirt could prime her for a big effort at a price in this spot.

Juvenile Fillies

Someone has to win this, none of the horses coming out of the big three preps ran particularly fast. The all button may be a multi-race player’s best friend in this spot. If a longshot wins this race and Winter Memories wins the Juvenile Turf, a case can be made for Winter Memories as the eclipse winner for the juvenile fillies division.

Filly & Mare Turf

Midday is coming into this race with wins in three straight grade one races and is in sharper form than she was last year when she won this race, she will be tough to beat here. Red Desire is better than her last start, which was over a yielding course. Miss Keller had the lead in mid-stretch of the EP Taylor and has been gradually stretching out to a 1 3/8 miles in her last four starts.

Distaff

Still not calling this race the Ladies’ Classic. The pace scenario is interesting in this race, a lot of the public handicappers are projecting Malibu Prayer as the early speed. There may be more horses up front than expected though. Milwaukee Appeal was on the hot pace of the Spinster, Acting Happy is adding blinkers, and Unrivaled Belle has not been worse than third early in her races since October of 2009.

Blind Luck has had a heck of season with eight races at seven different racetracks and five wins out of those starts including a narrow victory in the Kentucky Oaks. If Blind Luck wins the Distaff and a longshot ends up winning the Classic, a case can be made for Blind Luck being horse of the year.

A longshot worth a look is Acoma. She got no respect from the morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia with a 20/1 line. The Spinster was a fast race early and late, in addition to that Acoma is perfect in two starts over the Churchill dirt.

1 comment:

G. Calabrese said...

Acoma has morning line schizophrenia. Last time she was 8-1 morning line and returned a handsome sum of $49. Today she is 20-1 morning line but will likely be more like 10-1.