Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

24 February 2011

Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two




The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.

1. Uncle Mo

The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.

2. To Honor and Serve

The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.

3. Dialed In

There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?

4. Mucho Macho Man

An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.

5. The Factor

One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.

1 comment:

Gregory C. said...

Too bad Uncle Mo isn't at AQU, I'm sure he could run against More Than a Reason, Egru Egret and a flotilla of Pletcher patsies.