The Breeders’ Cup is a double-edged sword, what it offers in deep fields with an inordinate amount of quality horse flesh also takes away from other tracks due to trainers meticulously planning their schedules around having their horses ready for the big day. That being said it does help to scout and assess the top prospects leading up to the two days. Much like what we did for the lead up to the Kentucky Derby, we will do a series on these runners in their march towards November. Time to better get to know a Breeder’s Cup prospect.
Likely race he will be entered in: Classic
What’s old is new, back in the spring this Mott runner was not up to the rigors of the Triple Crown series and much like fellow juvenile superstar Uncle Mo he missed the big dance completely. Whatever problems he had are behind him after two straight authoritative wins at two turns going nine furlongs. Stamina for the mile and a quarter journey that he will likely embark on should not be a problem with Bernardini as the sire and the dam's sire being Deputy Minister.
With three races from the span of August 1st to September 24th and two wins to show from it, one being a win in the Pennsylvania Derby it is hard not say he is in top physical shape right now. The Classic has had its share of three-year-old colts take down the big prize. Curlin, Tiznow, and Concern come to mind; what is a recurring trait among them is that they put in strong efforts in their races leading up to the big day.
In To Honor and Serve’s Saratoga romp, his early pace figures against the adjusted average calls were twelve and eleven lengths faster than par and his speed figure was eight lengths faster when he was clear and coasting home. His biggest advantage may not be on pace and speed figures either, he was sidelined during the big three races in the spring. Now he is back as a fresh runner while the rest of his class has been butting heads for the past couple of months. If he remains sound and sharp he will be a dangerous runner on the big day of racing.
Power cap- existential handicapping
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I was very impressed with To Honor and Serve's Pennsylvania Derby win. However, going forward he will be over-bet off the stakes record performance after running down an over-matched Rush Now. What happens when he meets a quality older runner with equal speed? He's never really been battle tested...all his wins have been clear, if not dominant, victories.
The next race will answer some, but not all, questions. If he runs a representative race, win or lose, the BC Classic will be his fifth race in the cycle. Unfortunately, I don't believe this is the year for a talented, good-looking colt, to put his best hooves forward in a classic test of a champion.
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