Mother Goose Report

There were heavy rain showers while driving through the Bronx on the way to Elmont for the Mother Goose Stakes Stakes at Belmont. The day might have been ruined but it was not, it just served to pad the rain stats as it has rained here 24 of the last 26 days. Only by luck those rain showers never reached Belmont, not only were the conditions dry but the day was lovely. A cool northerly wind combined with low humidity, and sunny skies made for perfect racing conditions for man and beast. If you keep notes on how the track played the main track seemed to favor speed with fast times all day and frontrunners did well. The crowd was reported at 13,352 persons, which is a small crowd relative to the tremendous capacity of the facility. However compared to a usual weekend crowd the crowd was a larger. What the numbers do not show is that the crowd was overflowing with enthusiasm and had a different demographic than the typical mix of middle age to elderly men.










Naughty New Yorker

The first stakes race of the day was the Ed Fratello Stakes. Favored Wishful Tomcat tracked frontrunning Fortunate Prospect, took over at the top of the lane, winning the mile and a 16th test in 140 and 2/5ths. Looking at Wishful Tomcat in the paddock, he is a stoutly built, tall, good looking individual. He looked best on paper and impressive in the paddock. One look at him and it was clear that not only was he the favorite to win but Wishful Tomcat knew he was going to win. The horse had presence. He could come back and win the Suburban next week if Dutrow chooses to enter him. Wishful Tomcat is a horse with razor sharp form.









Naughty New Yorker

Old campaigner Naughty New York was in this field too. After all these years he still wears that full cup blinker over his right eye. He was second off the layoff after a year without a race. The 7 year old New York bred was a bit overweight in the paddock and raced like he needed the race as he finished last. I'm sure the connections would love to get him over the million dollar earnings plateau which he has flirted with since 2007. He is only about $15K away from 1 million but like a gambler trying to make the rent money if he does not find his old form he may not get there.









Paddock Crowd Mother Goose Stakes

“We were very pleased with the crowd today, especially the number of girls and women,” said Hal Handel, NYRA executive vice president and COO. This was a crowd where you can take your young daughter too and not worry about her being out of place. There were thousands of new faces and as one of the old faces I know who all the regulars are. These people were not track regulars. There were dozens of couples, there were teenage girls and adolescent girls with their families. I even talked to a guy who flew up from New Orleans to see Rachel run. This was a crowd of fans not just the hardcore packs of gamblers and handicappers.










Paddock Crowd Rachel Alexandra

It may be easy to dismiss these women as taking up space and not contributing their fair share to the game. Not only did they receive free admission but I did not see them hitting the windows with $100 exacta boxes. However their contribution is not to the handle but to the track aesthetic and of the ambiance of the facility. Having tons of women at the track changes the game. Old men cursing at a television screens suddenly feel like they are acting like crass animals and they tone down their public tirades of profanity. The hecklers keep their outbursts to themselves. What was once grimy becomes a classy event that could be attended by all. Taming racing's sleazy reputation is a good start to working the game back into the mainstream. Embellish the few thousand foul mouthed degenerates in the crowd with pretty girls and their admirers and soon the track becomes an inviting place. Suddenly demographic groups that are extinct at Belmont find that it is a good time. The potential for growth is opened up. The track demographic aquires some diversity outside of old and profane. Whatever NYRA did on Saturday was successful and is one of the building blocks to growing the game. I was bearish on this promotion, but I am happy to be wrong. The Rachel Alexandra promotion was a success. New fans showed up by the thousands and it was the most thrilling sporting event of the day.


Cheers In The Paddock For Rachel

Rachel Alexandra crushed her two competitors in the Mother Goose winning by 19 lengths, exceeding expectations. She rated behind the blistering pace and then drew off impressively as the rider pleased. It was pleasing result for the thousands of racing fans in attendance. The Preakness winner delivered strong validation. This type of crowd pleasing result is never a given in this tough game. Many hearts have been broken in Belmont's stretch. If Smarty Jones could have delivered like this in the 2004 Belmont I think a few thousand new racing fans would have been minted that day. Hopefully some new fans were created yesterday.










All Alone At The Wire Rachel Alexandra

Rachel is an athletic filly with a long neck and a serious eye. She looks like she is tough and not one to be trifled with. When Curlin raced at Belmont last year Jess Jackson spent time with Curlin in his stall, this time Jess Jackson gave Rachel Alexandra her space standing close by instead of in the stall. Like Curlin, Alexandra did not walk the paddock, her connections decided to have her spend the entire time she was in the paddock in her stall. Her manner was calm, controlled and confident. When Borel mounted her her ears pricked and she was on her toes. She received a round of applause in the paddock and then another warm reception during the post parade. When she returned to the winners circle she received a standing ovation. This type of affection is only reserved for racing royalty and she received the full royal treatment.










Beautiful Belmont Park After A Successful Day

The day was a success for Rachel Alexandra, the connections, the fans and for NYRA. This filly has the potential to bring people out to the track. She is a superstar and a real crowdpleaser. Every sports/racefan should make it a point to get out and see her while she is out there campaigning.

Photo Credit to Joe Burns

Dear Abigail, (The Category Killer Track)

Commenter Abigail made an excellent point in the Rachel Alexandra marketing post regarding how most people show up for triple crown racing for the party and not the horses. This crowd could really care less about the horses. They are there to hang out, get drunk and have a good time. Their good time y does not include watching or betting on horse racing. Any bets made are just ancillary entertainment. These people will not come back until next year when the TV starts talking about the triple crown all over again.


Marketing a special filly mostly falls on deaf ears. Most people are just not sharp enough to appreciate equine excellence or acknowledge it when they see it. These days when it comes to horses people don't know a throat latch from a trifecta box. The thing that people respond to is controversy and large groups of people all doing the same thing. People move in herds like Bison, cherishing the safety of the group. The challenge before racing is to create a real buzz, to create a watering hole to lure the herd. Racing needs to create excitement to drown out the mundane gossip about ballgames and ballplayers on sports AM radio. Racing needs get the masses talking about their single in Saturday's pick 4 instead of who is A-Rod dating now that he is single.

The only marketing that will get the job done is an idea posted by a commenter named "Cholly" in a previous post. The idea was about a "category killer" track that had 100K allowance races, 10% takeout with huge wagering pools and huge fields. Add in a revolutionary tote system based on Betfair that allows players to lay horses and racing could generate the necessary buzz to lure the herd of masses away from the malls and ballpark clip joints. This would be racing at its best and wagering on a grand scale. These would be mutuel pools that dominate the industry, perhaps even putting smaller tracks out of business and concentrating the public's fascination on the mega-meet.


Once the ball starts rolling with the masses their attention tends to accumulate on one subject making that entity a runaway success. Racing is just hanging on with a small but loyal niche audience. There is untapped potential for racing to be a top pleasure activity. When the gambling action filled with intrigue, the racing so interesting, masses of people would gravitate towards it. For this to happen the idea would have to be something completely new and completely out of the box. The marketing idea would have to be fraught with risk, something to surprise people and change the way people think about racing. The "category killer" track looms as something to bring racing back into the mainstream.

Preaching To The Choir

NYRA is pulling out all the stops to market Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose. There was a time when this type of marketing effort held promise but these promotions have disappointed year after year. The mainstream public has proven that time after time that outside of the hardcore niche audience they are completely disinterested with non-triple crown racing. The local population around Belmont would rather be at the mall sending more dollars to the Chinese treasury than betting on hard and confusing horse races. If it is not a mainstream media triple crown race a free admission or pink rubber band is not enough to lure the boys or the girls to the paddock.


Last year NYRA pulled out all the stops with Curlin at Saratoga just like NYRA is pulling out all the stops with Rachel. Instead of a huge attendance surge for Curlin theere was disapointment. In fact there was a Saturday last year without a graded stakes race, people lamented that NYRA that ruined squandered a great Saturday in a prime part of the meet. Suprisingly that afterthought of a racecard had more attenadnace than Curlin's heavily marketed run in the Woodward. The people have proven that racing is not on their radar I am expecting less that 10K for Belmont on Saturday. However it will be 10K of the best sports fans in the world, hopefully I am wrong, the masses show up in droves leaving the malls and the ballpark clip joints empty.

Smart Play Of The Day

Belmont Race 7

This is a almost completely paceless race except for the overmatched Dziki. The winner of the race will sit right off of Dziki and that filly is Smart Tiffany. Smart Tiffany ran a hidden good race last out, she got shuffled back on the inside then ran into a switch in the lane. With her tactical speed and the rail post she will be able to track Dziki, find separation at the top of the lane and prove hard to catch late.

Win #1 Smart Tiffany

Stats

26 11-3-1
strike rate 43%
cumulative return 81.60
$2 ROI $3.14

P.S. Throw in a bonus Dziki/Tiffany exacta box to cover the chance that Dziki really gets loose and holds on.

Final Pick 6 Ticket

Final pick 6 ticket after accounting for the surface, the scratches and the winds of luck. The scratches have been tallied and the final ticket is in. The single is Quonata in race 5, hoping she can reproduce the form from her last race, if she does she wins.

pick 6 5,6 / 13 / 1,5,6,10 / 5 / 1,6,10 / 1,7,10 = $144

Pick-6 Revisted

According to NYRA the races are going to be on the turf today except for the 5th race. The different surface demands a new ticket and a larger budget.

pick 6 1,6 / 9,13 / 1,6,10 / 5,7 / 9,11 / 1,10 = $192

Belmont Pick 6 Carryover-Basement Apt Play

Nothing like turning a few bucks and an opinion into a house down payment. We will try to do that with the Belmont pick 6 carryover. With horse racing online you can create your house down payment and finally kiss your landlord and his basement apartment goodbye.

The big question going into the card is the surface. With all of the rain the last week(three posts last week with monsoon in the title)I am going to gamble(that's a surprise) that we are off the turf and a fast main track.

Pick 6 ticket 1,5,6 / 9,13 / 7,9,10,11 / 5,7 / 10 / 12 =$96 play

Race 4 - Bottom level open maiden claimer lacks speed. Going to lean on lightly raced three year olds in here. My two picks are Saint Midas and the first timer Scholarly Pursuit. Karakorum may be a user from the rail as the lone speed may just help her pull off the upset.

Race 5 - Assuming off the turf, there are two users in here. No Rhyme or Reason is off the layoff and broke the maiden against 40K open. A bit reluctantly I will cover the undefeated Quonata who won first out last out.

Race 6 - A tricky race and one that could change dramatically with scratches. I am considering 4 horses and they are 7,9,10,11.

Race 7 - Smoking Sarah won last out in a battle. A tough race that will affect her form, the favorite will come up empty here. The two users are Crazy Thing on the cutback and Stephen's Rhythm's who closed well last time and should run better on a fast track.

Race 8 - Assuming off the turf Silvercup Baby looks tough in here. This could be our first single in the sequence. She has found a nice rating gear this year and should love the distance of 7 furlongs. I may use Summer Palace two who is second off layoff/first off the claim and has a great record at Big Sandy.

Race 9 - Assuming off the turf once again. This looks like Super Child's race to lose. She figures to be the front end boss and the drop should get the Empire Maker filly home and the powercap faithful out of their basement apartments.

Monsoons Lead To Two Day Carryover At Belmont

A weekend filled with rain and unlikely results resulted in a two day carryover of $154.9K for Wednesday's Belmont pick 6. The chief reason being the 1-9 upset of Cocoa Beach in the Floral Park stakes which not only drove the carryover but resulted in a bridgejumper taking the plunge. Of the $217,905 in the place pool, $198,846 was wagered on Cocoa Beach. A $20 bet on all in the place pool returned $591. Betting against irrational bridgejumpers is not only the best bet in racing but the best investment since man departed the barter system as the primary method of trade. More on the pick 6 caryover Wednesday morning.