For the first time I can not resist and I am going to pick chalk as the play of the day. Lets look at race 7 at Aqueduct.
Dr. W holds an edge in all three of the fundamental handicapping factors, pace, class and form. A Horse with these types of edges are solid foundations to build wagers around. They just might be the best wagers in all of gambling, we are talking the nuts of the nuts. He is the speed of the speed on a frozen tundra speed favoring course. He is the class of the race winning two open company races including the tough 50K starter allowance condition. Today is a drop in class to New York bred N1X off a win versus open a rare scenario. For the final edge he is third off the layoff, which many say is the sweet spot in the form cycle. The only negative is that he is unproven routing but the three edges neutralize that unknown along with good route breeding. Also consider that stretch out speed horses that are clearly the speed of the speed in two turn races have won more than their share of races over the years on Aqueduct inner dirt.
Race 7 W#6
Power Cap stats
8 2-0-1
strike rate 25%
cumulative return $25.80
$2 ROI $3.23
Power cap- existential handicapping
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Ouch, talk about a incredible opinions this was incredible humility. This horse never made the top, pressed the 2nd choice. With the 1st and 2nd choices going at it up top the closers got in gear and won the race. Ironically trainer Motion who so generously provided the PP's got up under the wire with Icabod Crane.
Stats
9 2-0-1
strike rate $22%
cumulative return $25.80
ROI $2.86
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