The Tampa Bay Derby appears to be a near walkover for War Pass. Lone Speed, clear class of the race, and prime second off the layoff form. Nothing is ever easy in this game and the odds on War Pass will be shorter than a quarter horse in a three mile steeplechase. This race is clearly for viewing purposes and I will be rooting for War Pass to win by a pole and set a new track record. Maybe this undefeated champion can get some much needed positive buzz momentum rolling towards the triple crown.
The Rebel provides more intrigue. The favorite is New York Bred Z Fortune. He has the mis- z fortune of drawing the far outside post in a two turn race. Willing to take a shot against Z first time shipping into Oaklawn at a short price. The pace scenario on paper is light on speed and this favors #4 Sacred Journey. Sacred Journey seems to hold all of the trump pace cards. If he can get the distance he should get clear and wire this field. Consider that Sacred Journey is second time stretching out while second time over the surface, both favorable considerations. Sacred Journey has the speed and credentials to cross the wire first in the Rebel. Give him a look in the paddock, if Sacred Journey is composed I suggest a wager on the nose.
Power cap- existential handicapping
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