Saratoga Race 1
Let's get this one over with so we can go out and enjoy the day. In race one the heavy morning line chalk Yelt has not won outside of Calder and is a Dutrow horse that has not worked in almost a month. This looks like a classic vulnerable favorite. The second choice is a Churchill shipper with a terminal case of seconditus. The third choice has very little back class breaking the maiden for 20K at Calder . The forth choice is another Churchill shipper that looks for his third win in a row. I think the ship and the step up in class will do this one in. This lets us go deep into the field for 10-1 morning line Loaves And Dishes. This one failed last out as the chalk in a N1X allowance but now drops in class to claimers for the first time since January. The last time this one ran for a tag it meant a big win. Loaves also won going long twice so the seven panels should not be an issue. At 10-1 Loaves and Dishes is an excellent value and a good key in the early double and pick 3.
Saratoga Race 1
Win #7 Loaves And Dishes
35 7-4-5
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.55
Power cap- existential handicapping
1 comment:
Loaves ran huge at 11-1 almost wiring the field, however he got nailed at the wire by the longest shot in the field. One thing that is for sure all of the chalks ran poorly. With so many vulnerable favorites a shrewd player would have boxed all the price horses here and cashed a $343 exacta.
36 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.48
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