Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

29 July 2009

Derby Winner Up Against It Down In West Virginia




Looks like the West Virgina Derby is going to be a tough spot for Mine That Bird. This short field with little pace should have Big Drama loose on the lead and alone at the wire the first and second time. Hard to imagine Mine That Bird scoring in this type of situation. Big Drama returns from a big win and sports 4 nice workouts while receiving 11 lbs from Mine That Bird. Big drama's lone speed set-up is a huge tactical advantage. Mine That Bird will earn further respect if he can muster the rally to run down the drama colt.

3 comments:

Amateurcapper said...

As always, thought-provoking commentary.

BIG DRAMA is the compelling speed...no RACHEL types in here to pressure him.

There is an adage from James Quinn's Handicapper's Stakes festival I consider...a sprinter that runs a very big race routing (in this case the Preakness - plus he was fractious and "bobbled" at the start) can often be sapped for future tries at a route.

Your points are well taken about the recency and form edges, favorable race shape, and weight advantage for BD over MTB. It all looks too easy, perhaps I'm over-thinking this race.

I'm concerned about BD's condition. Do you think this is valid?

Power Cap said...

It would be wise to give Big Drama the once over in the paddock and parade. He was a complete mess in the Preakness parade culminating in "big drama" in the gate. I think he reared up before they sprung the latch, had to be backed out, then when the gates opened he broke slow. If he looks like he is in the acceptable range of behavior Big Drama could be your chance to make a big wager with confidence.

Amateurcapper said...

Just posted my thoughts...then I see your response to my initial question...now I think I'll just pass the race.

Couldn't support BD with confidence after what I'd written.