Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

01 August 2009

West Virgina Derby; Play Of The Day




"You will never be a winner at poker until you can lay down a winning hand"~Poker Axiom


All week I have been chomping at the bit to play Big Drama in the West Virginia Derby. We had the lone speed, the tremendous weight break and the short field all playing to his advantage. Then we had that fact that the field is filled with no-hope race fillers and the tactically disadvantaged Mine That Bird who figures to be 3-5 or less in here. At the height of the Bag Drama fever I even considered tapping into a savings account to increase the investment on Big Drama. It all seemed too good to be true for Big Drama who should be somewhere between 8-5 and 2-1 but would be 1-2 on my personal oddsline.


Then a stranger weighed in poured cold water on my Big Drama crush. The very generous Amateur Capper has shed some light on Big Drama's form cycle. You have to love it when a capper has the stones to weigh in on these races before they spring latch and Amateur Capper provides a compelling argument. A.C. provides solid reasons why Big Drama may have some health/form issues. He has given me reason to pause. As far as capping goes this is as good as it gets.

However after thinking it over I am going to forge ahead with playing Big Drama in the West Virgina Derby. The bet will be spread across the pick3, late daily double and win pool. His four workouts in the last few weeks smooth over any lingering issues that A.C. has touched on. This is either going to be a case of my first instinct being correct or an example of a player not being able to pass on what looks like winning hand despite hints of looming disaster.

West Virgina Derby Win #4 Big Drama

Stats
32 13-4-1
strike rate 41%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $3.10

5 comments:

Amateurcapper said...

Power Cap,

Stones in your corner as well. That's what it takes to play and your win % says it all.

May the best opinion win!

P.S. Is it all RACHEL tomorrow or can you envision PAPA CLEM givin' her the business from the bell?

Power Cap said...

Big Drama opens at 1-2. Holding firm at odds on. Making it easy to slow down here. Still looking to cash the pick 3 which is sure to be minuscule as well. Have also worked the late double pool. Big Drama looks okay in the paddock and is sporting the front wraps for the second time. Unless he clicks up I think the 3-5 price on Big Drama is unacceptably too low to justify a win bet. If I can get 6-5 I'll fire it off.

Power Cap said...

Unbelievable! One of the race filler plugs that I disrespected takes down Big Drama late as he was floundering in the lane to win by a neck. This game has a way of taking overconfidence and stomping into the ground. Glad I pulled back a bit and tempered the bet when the win price held on odds-on. Mine That Bird was a disappointing third and could not run down the exhausted Big Drama. I should have trusted the poker axiom that moved to the fore of my mind last night. Too bad P.C. couldn't lay it down.

Stats

Stats
33 13-5-1
strike rate 39%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $3.01

Amateurcapper said...

What was unbelievable was that BIG DRAMA wanted to lay down at the head of the lane...the rest wanted to do the same!!!

Had to watch the race on tape...I was rooting hard for you.

It looked like they were all going to run right by him in the stretch...none could.

I've said it before...sometimes horses earn more respect from me when losing in a gallant effort...BIG DRAMA is all racehorse. It's too bad he's running when he's not right.

He's on my watch list as a horse to beat until his connections come to their senses...give him a much needed break and shorten him up.

I enjoyed our dialogue. Write to you again soon.

Chalk Eating Weasel said...

Big Drama was my top choice as well, but I declined to play the race. Some of the best money I never bet.