So much hyperbole surrounds the Kentucky Derby. For an anachronism of a sport that gets almost no attention, this one race garners more attention than every other race combined. This race will be over-thought by men, women, children and computers. Here are my thoughts on the race.
My pick is Awesome Act. This is a horse who has an impressive late kick and his breeding, his training and running style should be well suited to today's race. My existential handicapping tells me that this is a horse that can overcome adversity; the Derby is all about triumph over adversity.
When Awesome Act first arrived in New York his journey was an odyssey. A massive blizzard delayed his arrived for 3 days and instead of a swift journey her was grounded at a British airport for the days. While he did not have to sleep on a cot like the travelers recently grounded by the Iceland ash emergency he certainly faced situational adversity. He was then stuck in American quarantine and not able to work preceding the Gotham. On top of his travel inconveniences the Gotham was a race where Awesome Act was first time dirt. Horses that are first time dirt emerging from travel hardships are usually big failures, think Aidan O'Brien imports on B.C. day. Those O'Brien horse likely fly privately. Not only did Awesome Act win, he won in smashing style. His win was a bold statement for those paying attention. When the adversity a twenty horse field being spooked by a rabid 150K crowd materializes other horses will likely use their mind, Awesome Act should be as cool as a glacier.
The other edge that Awesome Act holds is that he should love the distance. He has a bottom of English style distance training that is completely unique to the field. This bottom of stamina will be very handy running ten furlongs for the first time. With twenty horses in the race the pace figures to be taxing for the front runners. A perfect set up for a late running closer with a strong base of stamina is likely. This race should set up perfectly for Awesome Act. The explosive turn of foot he displayed in the Gotham could be the trump card in the Derby. Could he delight us like Awesome Mich? We hope so. Awesome Act is the play of the day.
Kentucky Derby Win #16 Awesome Act
Stats
stats
5 1-0-1
strike rate 20%
cumulative return $39.80
$2 ROI $7.96
average winner $39.80
Power cap- existential handicapping
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4 comments:
After the wood, AA went on my watch list. Tom Durkin 'Awesome Act is still under a stranglehold by Leparoux...'. Leparoux's 'Santos' like ride against glacial fractions didn't help the horses chances at all. May not have won against Esc., but would have made a better race of it. I'm with you, your added commentary on this horse makes it even more enticing for me...Cice
Love your logic on this pick..I see LAL,Awesome Act, Ice Box and Dublin all closing in at end on early leaders. Good Luck
I'm betting Stately Victor after reading this analysis
http://www.latekick.com/public/KD2010_comments.aspx
Awesome Act was far from awesome. He was 19th of 20. I'm not even sure if he was in the race. Calvin Borel rode the winner beautifully again. The conditions were adverse with the deluge of rain but it was still a wonderful day of racing. Churchill does know how to throw a great party and dealt with the adverse conditions much better than Awesome Act did.
stats
6 1-0-1
strike rate 17%
cumulative return $39.80
$2 ROI $6.60
average winner $39.80
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