Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

23 April 2011

Kentucky Derby Top Three

Why fiddle with ten or twelve horses when you can narrow down the winner of the Kentucky Derby to three horses. With so many flops this year and with a uninspiring decline in competition it was easier to separate the cream from the milk. Racing was just awful all winter in New York -it usually is- below par in Arkansas and putrid in former derby breeding ground California. Louisiana had a good meet at the Fairgrounds. The only strong racing in the country was the grand restoration that occurred at the Gulfstream meet. They had a banner meet there this year and produced two of our three contenders with all three spending time in South Florida.

3 - Mucho Macho Man - This guy has nice rating speed and has been training up a storm. Horse is game and is trained by real people and not a corporate drug store. Last work was 7 furlongs in 123 and change. There is something to root for here- trainer Kathy Ritvo is a heart transplant recipient and owners have faith in God. When jockey Eibar Coa was injured days before Mucho Macho Man's race in the Risen Star Stakes

"When they flew back to Florida, Dean went immediately to the hospital, where he presented Coa with a check for $18,000, matching the winning cut for the jockey of record in the Risen Star.

"Had Eibar been there, he could have ridden him to victory, too," Dean said. "We paid him as if he'd been on the horse.""

These are people I can root for and and I hope God has a nice surprise planned for them the first Saturday in May.

2 - Soldat - This is a big rangy colt that has proven that he can run on grass, dirt and slop. Horses that can run on any surface are just flat out talented. He was able to take down the Holy Bull which was a strong prep race at Gulfstream. His team of connections is strong with Kiaran McLaughlin calling the shots and Alan Garcia handling the reins. Distance should be no issue and if you can excuse his last race as a training lesson there is value here as well.

1- Dialed in - This guy is the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby and it is deserved. Initially I thought we were dealing with Ice Box part two here but since then I have done an about face on this colt. He is a strong closer, has worked out his lead changing issues and is being handled by two masters in Zito and Leparoux. The trainer provides the derby mastery and the Leparoux knows Churchill better than anyone - even Borel. Dialed In emerges as the king out of the tough Gulfstream Park meet. This is like a boxer emerging out of Philly or a handball player that is tops in Coney Island. This guy is going to be closing in the derby and will be very hard to keep im out of the frame. The one to fear at a short price.

1 comment:

gib. said...

I plan to bet on #4 in the Derby. I will have the same confidence when they approach the gate as I would if I spent the next two weeks pulling my hair out.

I have already lost one wager since ELITE ALEX wasn't even strong enough to get into the field.