A special play for Saturday. I really like Spa City Fever to go wire to wire in the 6th at Aqueduct. He is true lone speed and working well over at Belmont. Race 7 looks wide open and then we have "Power Cap horse of the year 2010" Stormy's Majesty in race 8. Looks like a pick 3 play if I ever saw one.
Big A race 6 pick 3 4 /ALL / 2
Power cap- existential handicapping
20 November 2010
A return to normalcy
The Breeders' Cup is two weeks removed and fading into the rear view mirror until next year. Horse racing moves on, unless you work for the Daily Racing Form. The writers for that publication will not stop talking about Zenyatta’s loss in the Classic. This will be the only paragraph you will see about her loss, she was on the dead rail headed into the stretch and had to make up more ground than anyone else in that race by moving off the rail during the stretch. If Smith swings her out wide at the top of the stretch like he has done so many times before, the outcome may be different. Yes, it was Smith’s mistake and mistakes happen. After Cigar’s first loss in 17 starts Bailey took the blame because the horse could be held to fault after 16 straight wins. As for the horse of the year controversy, who cares? The top two finishers are headed to the breeding shed and they faced off once, it is not like it is the end of a great rivalry like Sunday Silence versus Easy Goer or Affirmed versus Alydar, it was one race with two top quality horses. Only two groups of people place any importance on Eclipse awards, out of touch racing journalists and overly devoted fans of the horses in the running for these awards. There are plenty of races after the Breeders’ Cup and a lot of it is worth watching.
The Mad Hatter Stakes
Just to highlight the ridiculousness of placing too much importance on Beyer Speed Figures, take a look at Understatement. He ran a figure of 115 in February and the Classic winner had a figure of 111, if you go solely on these numbers you will be tempted to say that Understatement is a beast that could have mopped the floor with the Classic field. Closer form inspection shows that he runs his best on the winter surface at Aqueduct though, he ran that big number over the ice rink last January and was shipped to the mid-Atlantic twice in the spring to no success. His tries at Monmouth last year were also mediocre in comparison to his inner track record. It also could stand to reason that his form cycle peaks during the winter as evidenced by his big effort in December of 2009 before running big efforts in two stakes at the Big A. When the racing returns to the inner track, beware of this one.
Suburban Handicap winner Dry Martini is going to post for the 35th time in this race. The one thing that racing has not been good at in recent times is promoting the geldings, they make up most of the horse population at any given track and they run in more races than the high class stallions do as well. The geldings are a great promotional tool, because you know that the breeding shed will never call and all they can do is race. More Than a Reason is not gelded and is making his 59th start, I guess winning starter allowances is not highly sought after in the breeding shed. He made 24 starts last year and 16 starts this year, a total of 40 starts with five wins and a little over $300,000 to show for it, not bad at all.
Juvenile clearinghouse
The Delta Jackpot will be renewed for the eighth time today, seven times prior this race as produced nothing more than futile longshots for the Kentucky Derby. Despite that fact trainers will send their juveniles in this spot because it makes it that much easier to get into the Derby field even if their horse doesn’t have any foundation being in that spot. If there ever was a solid reasoning for restructuring the the Derby entry process this is the example that could be used.
Uncle Mo was a much the best winner in the juvenile, but before everyone goes rushing to Vegas for Derby futures on this one, here is something to consider. The last three Juvenile winners failed to reach the gate come the first Saturday in May following Street Sense’s Juvenile/Derby double in 2007. For some reason the runner-ups and also-rans from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile seem to fare better going forward. This is not a recent trend either, Alysheba was third in the 1987 Juvenile and won the Derby and Preakness the following year. Lookin at Lucky and Afleet Alex were on the board in juvenile and went onto bigger and better things, Wilko never panned out and Vale of York all but disappeared from the radar if it wasn’t for a recent notice about his retirement.
Discovery Handicap
This race usually produces some good runners going forward, a recent example is Haynesfield. Reaching into the vault, Evening Attire was the winner of this race back in 2001. Recently a half brother of Evening Attire, Con the Cat broke his maiden over the Big A carrying the tradition of success over the Aqueduct oval in the family’s genes. If Con the Cat is half as good as his older brother than he should be a hell of a racehorse. Not much insight on this running of the Discovery though, just an excuse to post a youtube link to Evening Attire’s 65/1 upset in this race.
The Mad Hatter Stakes
Just to highlight the ridiculousness of placing too much importance on Beyer Speed Figures, take a look at Understatement. He ran a figure of 115 in February and the Classic winner had a figure of 111, if you go solely on these numbers you will be tempted to say that Understatement is a beast that could have mopped the floor with the Classic field. Closer form inspection shows that he runs his best on the winter surface at Aqueduct though, he ran that big number over the ice rink last January and was shipped to the mid-Atlantic twice in the spring to no success. His tries at Monmouth last year were also mediocre in comparison to his inner track record. It also could stand to reason that his form cycle peaks during the winter as evidenced by his big effort in December of 2009 before running big efforts in two stakes at the Big A. When the racing returns to the inner track, beware of this one.
Suburban Handicap winner Dry Martini is going to post for the 35th time in this race. The one thing that racing has not been good at in recent times is promoting the geldings, they make up most of the horse population at any given track and they run in more races than the high class stallions do as well. The geldings are a great promotional tool, because you know that the breeding shed will never call and all they can do is race. More Than a Reason is not gelded and is making his 59th start, I guess winning starter allowances is not highly sought after in the breeding shed. He made 24 starts last year and 16 starts this year, a total of 40 starts with five wins and a little over $300,000 to show for it, not bad at all.
Juvenile clearinghouse
The Delta Jackpot will be renewed for the eighth time today, seven times prior this race as produced nothing more than futile longshots for the Kentucky Derby. Despite that fact trainers will send their juveniles in this spot because it makes it that much easier to get into the Derby field even if their horse doesn’t have any foundation being in that spot. If there ever was a solid reasoning for restructuring the the Derby entry process this is the example that could be used.
Uncle Mo was a much the best winner in the juvenile, but before everyone goes rushing to Vegas for Derby futures on this one, here is something to consider. The last three Juvenile winners failed to reach the gate come the first Saturday in May following Street Sense’s Juvenile/Derby double in 2007. For some reason the runner-ups and also-rans from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile seem to fare better going forward. This is not a recent trend either, Alysheba was third in the 1987 Juvenile and won the Derby and Preakness the following year. Lookin at Lucky and Afleet Alex were on the board in juvenile and went onto bigger and better things, Wilko never panned out and Vale of York all but disappeared from the radar if it wasn’t for a recent notice about his retirement.
Discovery Handicap
This race usually produces some good runners going forward, a recent example is Haynesfield. Reaching into the vault, Evening Attire was the winner of this race back in 2001. Recently a half brother of Evening Attire, Con the Cat broke his maiden over the Big A carrying the tradition of success over the Aqueduct oval in the family’s genes. If Con the Cat is half as good as his older brother than he should be a hell of a racehorse. Not much insight on this running of the Discovery though, just an excuse to post a youtube link to Evening Attire’s 65/1 upset in this race.
06 November 2010
Breeders' Cup Roundup, Saturday edition
Six races in the books and eight more to go, if yesterday’s results taught us anything it is that shopping for prices during the Breeders’ Cup is still the way to go. Not a single pari-mutuel favorite won throughout the Breeders’ Cup portion of the Churchill card. The heavy chalk did manage to hit the board in the Distaff, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Fillies and Mares turf. Playing the heavy favorites underneath may be the way to go for the remaining Breeders’ Cup races.
Juvenile Turf
From the looks of it there should not be a horse going off less than 4/1 in this race, this is a very wide-open field. As I said yesterday about the Juvenile Fillies, someone has to win this. If you have a dartboard lying around it may be your best handicapping tool in this race.
Sprint
Warrior’s Reward is in this race and not the Dirt Mile, his form has been darkened up a bit with his last three starts. The Met Mile he was on the pace, he doesn’t like Saratoga all that much and he showed it in the Forego, and he is zero for two on synthetics. It may be worthwhile to use Warrior’s Reward in the exotics based on the value and the murky form.
Turf Sprint
If you found a dartboard and used it for the Juvenile Turf, keeping that out for this race highly advised.
Juvenile
Looking at the pedigrees of this field, it seems like less than half of them can go any further than 1 1/8 miles. JP’s Gusto has had a very nice season out in southern California, yet there are two knocks on him coming into this race. The first being he has a great sprinters’ pedigree and the other is he did not stay the distance of 1 1/16 miles despite a perfect trip. Boys At Tosconova has been training like clockwork and has some stamina influence on the mare’s side of the pedigree with Coronado’s Quest. Unclue Mo will probably be an underlay in this race, his connections are always bet, the big speed figures are always bet, and he was less than even money in his first two starts.
Mile
Goldikova is the first one trying to get the hat trick with consecutive Breeders’ Cup wins today. To appreciate the difficulty of this task you have to go back to 1994 when Lure was attempting the same feat in this race. As usual the Mile has some stiff competition lined up, Gio Ponti is three out of four at the distance, Court Vision has turned in his best races at this distance as well, Paco Boy has been chasing Goldikova since June, Sidney’s Candy had a monster race last time out, and Proviso has a great closing kick going a mile.
Dirt Mile
There were two prep races that were set up for this spot, the Kelso Handicap and the Presque Isle Downs Mile. Tizway and Cool Coal Man are the only ones that used the race Kelso and Gayego is coming from the Presque Isle Downs Mile. The rest of the field is coming from an assortment of races that are being used as preps for the Classic or Sprint. The Forego, Woodward, Pennsylvania Derby, Goodwood, and Indiana Derby were the races to be exact.
Turf
Winchester is the America’s best chance at winning this race, the Turf Classic was run over a yielding course at 1 ½ miles, that was a tougher race than the Beyer figures are giving credit for. Debussy has already shipped from England once to win a big race in the U.S., what is stopping him from repeating that effort? His last race was against Vision d’Etat and Twice Over, two top notch runners, and he is in peak form for this effort. Behkabad had a rough trip in the Arc de Triomphe where he was boxed in for most of the race and has run some solid races this year, he could be worth a look at a price.
Classic
Pace makes the race and there is an abundance of it in this race. Quality Road has the rail and very few options, Haynesfield’s best races are on or close to the lead, First Dude is usually up on the pace, and Etched has shown nothing but speed throughout his career. Having just three out of four of the projected speeds up there still would set up for a fast early pace and a sweet trip for the closers like Zenyatta, Blame, and Lookin at Lucky. There isn’t much to say about Zenyatta that any other person has said about her, she is an undefeated freak of nature, but taking short odds on what could be her last race of her career is something that is hard to do in a race loaded with talent. Anyone expecting even money or higher on her in this spot will be sorely mistaken, she has received a bulk of the media attention in the last few weeks and has a very loyal fan base so 2/5 odds is more likely than not.
Home field advantage could be the deciding factor here as it was in the Filly & Mare Sprint a day earlier. Blame is three for four at Churchill and his late kick should be well suited for this race. Fly Down is a horse worth a flyer at long odds, he ran a big race in the Travers and is facing older competition for the second time. Flower Alley comes to mind with this type of angle, he did not run to his ability first time against his elders in the 2005 Jockey Club Gold Cup and came back with a second place finish in the classic that year.
Juvenile Turf
From the looks of it there should not be a horse going off less than 4/1 in this race, this is a very wide-open field. As I said yesterday about the Juvenile Fillies, someone has to win this. If you have a dartboard lying around it may be your best handicapping tool in this race.
Sprint
Warrior’s Reward is in this race and not the Dirt Mile, his form has been darkened up a bit with his last three starts. The Met Mile he was on the pace, he doesn’t like Saratoga all that much and he showed it in the Forego, and he is zero for two on synthetics. It may be worthwhile to use Warrior’s Reward in the exotics based on the value and the murky form.
Turf Sprint
If you found a dartboard and used it for the Juvenile Turf, keeping that out for this race highly advised.
Juvenile
Looking at the pedigrees of this field, it seems like less than half of them can go any further than 1 1/8 miles. JP’s Gusto has had a very nice season out in southern California, yet there are two knocks on him coming into this race. The first being he has a great sprinters’ pedigree and the other is he did not stay the distance of 1 1/16 miles despite a perfect trip. Boys At Tosconova has been training like clockwork and has some stamina influence on the mare’s side of the pedigree with Coronado’s Quest. Unclue Mo will probably be an underlay in this race, his connections are always bet, the big speed figures are always bet, and he was less than even money in his first two starts.
Mile
Goldikova is the first one trying to get the hat trick with consecutive Breeders’ Cup wins today. To appreciate the difficulty of this task you have to go back to 1994 when Lure was attempting the same feat in this race. As usual the Mile has some stiff competition lined up, Gio Ponti is three out of four at the distance, Court Vision has turned in his best races at this distance as well, Paco Boy has been chasing Goldikova since June, Sidney’s Candy had a monster race last time out, and Proviso has a great closing kick going a mile.
Dirt Mile
There were two prep races that were set up for this spot, the Kelso Handicap and the Presque Isle Downs Mile. Tizway and Cool Coal Man are the only ones that used the race Kelso and Gayego is coming from the Presque Isle Downs Mile. The rest of the field is coming from an assortment of races that are being used as preps for the Classic or Sprint. The Forego, Woodward, Pennsylvania Derby, Goodwood, and Indiana Derby were the races to be exact.
Turf
Winchester is the America’s best chance at winning this race, the Turf Classic was run over a yielding course at 1 ½ miles, that was a tougher race than the Beyer figures are giving credit for. Debussy has already shipped from England once to win a big race in the U.S., what is stopping him from repeating that effort? His last race was against Vision d’Etat and Twice Over, two top notch runners, and he is in peak form for this effort. Behkabad had a rough trip in the Arc de Triomphe where he was boxed in for most of the race and has run some solid races this year, he could be worth a look at a price.
Classic
Pace makes the race and there is an abundance of it in this race. Quality Road has the rail and very few options, Haynesfield’s best races are on or close to the lead, First Dude is usually up on the pace, and Etched has shown nothing but speed throughout his career. Having just three out of four of the projected speeds up there still would set up for a fast early pace and a sweet trip for the closers like Zenyatta, Blame, and Lookin at Lucky. There isn’t much to say about Zenyatta that any other person has said about her, she is an undefeated freak of nature, but taking short odds on what could be her last race of her career is something that is hard to do in a race loaded with talent. Anyone expecting even money or higher on her in this spot will be sorely mistaken, she has received a bulk of the media attention in the last few weeks and has a very loyal fan base so 2/5 odds is more likely than not.
Home field advantage could be the deciding factor here as it was in the Filly & Mare Sprint a day earlier. Blame is three for four at Churchill and his late kick should be well suited for this race. Fly Down is a horse worth a flyer at long odds, he ran a big race in the Travers and is facing older competition for the second time. Flower Alley comes to mind with this type of angle, he did not run to his ability first time against his elders in the 2005 Jockey Club Gold Cup and came back with a second place finish in the classic that year.
04 November 2010
Breeders' Cup Roundup, Friday edition
The first day of the two-day Breeders’ Cup program is on tap with 14 high-class races carded and it has never been a better time to be a spot player. With so many races to choose from a player can bet into the races that are in their wheelhouse and sit out the races that aren’t to their preference.
Marathon
The Sprint used to be the kickoff race for the program back when there were only seven races held. Twice the amount of races scheduled, double up the distance of the first race to be run. This cannot be a coincidence with the way they carded this. The Europeans sent their allowance grade runners in this race too, parroting what their American counterparts do with marathon dirt races on a yearly basis.
Awesome Gem is back to take another crack at the Breeders’ Cup, the seven year old gelding has been to the big dance three times prior and his best finish was a third in the 2007 Classic. Looking at his record two things are apparent, the first and most obvious is that he finishes second a lot with 13 placings out of 38 starts and the other is he may better on dirt than synthetics. His record on dirt is three wins and five on the board finishes out of ten starts, his record on synthetics two wins and seven on the board finishes out of 16 starts.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is the first wave of European turf invaders, Together leads the foreign charge in this race with a grade three win and a place finish facing grade one competition two starts back. Winter Memories has a big closing kick and the pedigree that this event was made for with Memories of Silver as the dam. Winter Memories had only two horses beat and was six lengths out of it with 5/16 of a mile left and circled the field to win easily on a yielding course in her last start. She could be a star on the rise.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Informed Decision is the first of four horses trying to repeat from last year’s success in the Breeders’ Cup. I’m sure Vegas has a proposition bet on which horse or horses will repeat in this year’s renewal and if they are offering this proposition bet Informed Decision has to be highest odds of the four. She has lost a step or two from the monster year she had in 2009 when she won six of seven.
A longshot worth a look is Rinterval, she faced Zenyatta two back and was in the teeth of a fast pace last out in the Spinster. The quarter of a mile cutback and switch to dirt could prime her for a big effort at a price in this spot.
Juvenile Fillies
Someone has to win this, none of the horses coming out of the big three preps ran particularly fast. The all button may be a multi-race player’s best friend in this spot. If a longshot wins this race and Winter Memories wins the Juvenile Turf, a case can be made for Winter Memories as the eclipse winner for the juvenile fillies division.
Filly & Mare Turf
Midday is coming into this race with wins in three straight grade one races and is in sharper form than she was last year when she won this race, she will be tough to beat here. Red Desire is better than her last start, which was over a yielding course. Miss Keller had the lead in mid-stretch of the EP Taylor and has been gradually stretching out to a 1 3/8 miles in her last four starts.
Distaff
Still not calling this race the Ladies’ Classic. The pace scenario is interesting in this race, a lot of the public handicappers are projecting Malibu Prayer as the early speed. There may be more horses up front than expected though. Milwaukee Appeal was on the hot pace of the Spinster, Acting Happy is adding blinkers, and Unrivaled Belle has not been worse than third early in her races since October of 2009.
Blind Luck has had a heck of season with eight races at seven different racetracks and five wins out of those starts including a narrow victory in the Kentucky Oaks. If Blind Luck wins the Distaff and a longshot ends up winning the Classic, a case can be made for Blind Luck being horse of the year.
A longshot worth a look is Acoma. She got no respect from the morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia with a 20/1 line. The Spinster was a fast race early and late, in addition to that Acoma is perfect in two starts over the Churchill dirt.
Marathon
The Sprint used to be the kickoff race for the program back when there were only seven races held. Twice the amount of races scheduled, double up the distance of the first race to be run. This cannot be a coincidence with the way they carded this. The Europeans sent their allowance grade runners in this race too, parroting what their American counterparts do with marathon dirt races on a yearly basis.
Awesome Gem is back to take another crack at the Breeders’ Cup, the seven year old gelding has been to the big dance three times prior and his best finish was a third in the 2007 Classic. Looking at his record two things are apparent, the first and most obvious is that he finishes second a lot with 13 placings out of 38 starts and the other is he may better on dirt than synthetics. His record on dirt is three wins and five on the board finishes out of ten starts, his record on synthetics two wins and seven on the board finishes out of 16 starts.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This is the first wave of European turf invaders, Together leads the foreign charge in this race with a grade three win and a place finish facing grade one competition two starts back. Winter Memories has a big closing kick and the pedigree that this event was made for with Memories of Silver as the dam. Winter Memories had only two horses beat and was six lengths out of it with 5/16 of a mile left and circled the field to win easily on a yielding course in her last start. She could be a star on the rise.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Informed Decision is the first of four horses trying to repeat from last year’s success in the Breeders’ Cup. I’m sure Vegas has a proposition bet on which horse or horses will repeat in this year’s renewal and if they are offering this proposition bet Informed Decision has to be highest odds of the four. She has lost a step or two from the monster year she had in 2009 when she won six of seven.
A longshot worth a look is Rinterval, she faced Zenyatta two back and was in the teeth of a fast pace last out in the Spinster. The quarter of a mile cutback and switch to dirt could prime her for a big effort at a price in this spot.
Juvenile Fillies
Someone has to win this, none of the horses coming out of the big three preps ran particularly fast. The all button may be a multi-race player’s best friend in this spot. If a longshot wins this race and Winter Memories wins the Juvenile Turf, a case can be made for Winter Memories as the eclipse winner for the juvenile fillies division.
Filly & Mare Turf
Midday is coming into this race with wins in three straight grade one races and is in sharper form than she was last year when she won this race, she will be tough to beat here. Red Desire is better than her last start, which was over a yielding course. Miss Keller had the lead in mid-stretch of the EP Taylor and has been gradually stretching out to a 1 3/8 miles in her last four starts.
Distaff
Still not calling this race the Ladies’ Classic. The pace scenario is interesting in this race, a lot of the public handicappers are projecting Malibu Prayer as the early speed. There may be more horses up front than expected though. Milwaukee Appeal was on the hot pace of the Spinster, Acting Happy is adding blinkers, and Unrivaled Belle has not been worse than third early in her races since October of 2009.
Blind Luck has had a heck of season with eight races at seven different racetracks and five wins out of those starts including a narrow victory in the Kentucky Oaks. If Blind Luck wins the Distaff and a longshot ends up winning the Classic, a case can be made for Blind Luck being horse of the year.
A longshot worth a look is Acoma. She got no respect from the morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia with a 20/1 line. The Spinster was a fast race early and late, in addition to that Acoma is perfect in two starts over the Churchill dirt.
30 October 2010
Purse Explosion at Belmont
Just a few days after they broke ground at Aqueduct the purses have greatly expanded at Belmont. NY bred allowances are running for $56K. $7.5K claimers run for $31K and maiden specials are no $62K. These are tremendous purses. It is no wonder that the entry box has overflowed all week. Yesterday a N3X/75K open (race 7 29OCT10) allowance going long oversubscribed; this was the kind of race NYRA had trouble filling for the last 8 years. If first impressions hold, this casino subsidy could mean great things for New York racing.
26 October 2010
Mile and Sprint prep races insight
With the Breeders Cup program ten days away it would be in the best interest of anyone handicapping the event to start looking through the charts of the prep races that were run earlier in the month or in the past two months.
Breeders Cup Mile prep races
First Lady Stakes
There is only one contender using this race as a springboard to the mile and it was the winner, Proviso. She has had a remarkable season with four straight grade one wins including a win in March against male competition. Later on that same card the Shadwell Mile was run with the final time 1/5 of a second slower than the First Lady and a slightly slower last quarter of a mile. From what my figures show Proviso ran a her final quarter of a mile five lengths faster than the average for the Keeneland meet, while not lightning fast she ran faster than the average and could be worth using in the exotics.
Shadwell Mile
Gio Ponti won this race with a closing kick of 23 1/5 seconds which seems fast on paper, but the average final quarter for mile turf races at Keeneland has been 23.7 seconds. From the looks of it he was life and death to catch the leader Courageous Cat at the 1/16 pole. He is being considered for the classic as well, which would be a tough mountain to climb with all the top tier dirt horses signed on and the mile would be a better spot to show his talent.
Courageous Cat may be worth a look at a price for the Mile, he may have moved too soon in this race and could have been short on stamina for this effort coming off of a March layoff. With a race under his belt for the mile he could be a horse that sneaks into the picture as a nice paying longshot.
Breeders Cup Sprint prep races
Vosburgh Stakes
Girolamo won this race coming off a disappointing effort in the Forego up at Saratoga and did so by shaking off the challenge of Riley Tucker. This race came up very fast against the average times for six furlongs at the Belmont fall meet, nine lengths faster than normal on my numbers. The field he beat was probably not the most stellar though, the group assembled for this race was zero for their careers in grade one company and Driven by Success lost last weekend against state bred runners at Belmont.
The Ancient Title Stakes
Synthetic racing usually produces lots of times that deviate much from the average times, Smiling Tiger’s win in this race has been the fastest race of the meet by a lot. His half mile time was 44.53 and the meet average has been 45.93, his finish was clocked in 1:09.17 and the average for ¾ of a mile has been 1:11.11. This race did not get a high beyer speed figure either with a 103, there could be value to be had with this horse. If he can transfer his form to dirt from the cushion track he will be a menace to his east coast counter parts.
Breeders Cup Mile prep races
First Lady Stakes
There is only one contender using this race as a springboard to the mile and it was the winner, Proviso. She has had a remarkable season with four straight grade one wins including a win in March against male competition. Later on that same card the Shadwell Mile was run with the final time 1/5 of a second slower than the First Lady and a slightly slower last quarter of a mile. From what my figures show Proviso ran a her final quarter of a mile five lengths faster than the average for the Keeneland meet, while not lightning fast she ran faster than the average and could be worth using in the exotics.
Shadwell Mile
Gio Ponti won this race with a closing kick of 23 1/5 seconds which seems fast on paper, but the average final quarter for mile turf races at Keeneland has been 23.7 seconds. From the looks of it he was life and death to catch the leader Courageous Cat at the 1/16 pole. He is being considered for the classic as well, which would be a tough mountain to climb with all the top tier dirt horses signed on and the mile would be a better spot to show his talent.
Courageous Cat may be worth a look at a price for the Mile, he may have moved too soon in this race and could have been short on stamina for this effort coming off of a March layoff. With a race under his belt for the mile he could be a horse that sneaks into the picture as a nice paying longshot.
Breeders Cup Sprint prep races
Vosburgh Stakes
Girolamo won this race coming off a disappointing effort in the Forego up at Saratoga and did so by shaking off the challenge of Riley Tucker. This race came up very fast against the average times for six furlongs at the Belmont fall meet, nine lengths faster than normal on my numbers. The field he beat was probably not the most stellar though, the group assembled for this race was zero for their careers in grade one company and Driven by Success lost last weekend against state bred runners at Belmont.
The Ancient Title Stakes
Synthetic racing usually produces lots of times that deviate much from the average times, Smiling Tiger’s win in this race has been the fastest race of the meet by a lot. His half mile time was 44.53 and the meet average has been 45.93, his finish was clocked in 1:09.17 and the average for ¾ of a mile has been 1:11.11. This race did not get a high beyer speed figure either with a 103, there could be value to be had with this horse. If he can transfer his form to dirt from the cushion track he will be a menace to his east coast counter parts.
19 October 2010
The Pletcher Trio
There are very few things that are certain in horse racing, one of which is that Pletcher will be represented in every race throughout the two days of the Breeders Cup program. He has operations set up in every region of the country so the odds of him not having a horse entered in each race are highly unlikely. The area where he has his premier group of runners stationed is the east or more specifically New York. He campaigned Quality Road exclusively on this side of the country along with Life at Ten and Uncle Mo, all top win candidates in their respective races.
Uncle Mo is short on racing experience with only two starts to his name, but long on reputation at this point with a dominating debut victory and an authoritative win last out in the Champagne. There are some issues that keep him from being a prohibitive favorite though, first of them being that both of his wins were over extremely fast surfaces. His win on Travers day was over a surface that was at least a second faster than usual and there were two races at six furlongs that finished up in 1:09 and change. The Champagne was contested after the Frizette, which had a final time of 1:35 3/5 and the Champagne was run in 1:34 2/5. The track variant for that day for the two routes were a 12, which is far lower than the 23 average that the meet has had so far. He will likely go off a short priced favorite in the Juvenile and his odds will probably be far lower than the acceptable value one can take on him.
Quality Road ran some scintillatingly fast races earlier this year with wins in the Donn and Metropolitan Handicaps, his last two efforts at Saratoga leave something to be desired. He set a mild pace in the Whitney Handicap and was narrowly defeated by the closer Blame and the Woodward he beat a weak field in a workout-like time of 1:50. They have had him training up to the Classic since his last start in early September and one has to wonder if the 1 ¼ miles is appropriate distance for this horse. His best races have come either at a one-turn mile or two turns going 1 1/8 miles. In fairness though his two tries at 10 furlongs were over sloppy surfaces chasing Summer Bird. Blame, Zenyatta, and Lookin At Lucky will likely lead the cavalry charge going into the stretch and a horse like Haynesfield on the lead will certainly make things harder for Quality Road in his attempt to win the Classic.
Life At Ten has been a gem of consistency for Pletcher with five wins out of six starts in and no off the board finishes this year. Her only loss of 2010 was the Personal Ensign where she dueled with Rachel Alexandra. She rebounded nicely from that defeat with a win in the Beldame though. The noticeable thing of her last race was her ability to stay a length or two off the leader while riding the rail and making a run at the top of the stretch after waiting to be called on for 7 furlongs. Her chief opponents in the Distaff are a pair of three year old fillies that will likely take a lot of support, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. They have battled each other in three straight races, all of which had a combined winning margin of less than a length and will have to face older females for the first time. Out of the all the high profile Pletcher horses that will run Life At Ten may offer the best value from a win betting standpoint.
Uncle Mo is short on racing experience with only two starts to his name, but long on reputation at this point with a dominating debut victory and an authoritative win last out in the Champagne. There are some issues that keep him from being a prohibitive favorite though, first of them being that both of his wins were over extremely fast surfaces. His win on Travers day was over a surface that was at least a second faster than usual and there were two races at six furlongs that finished up in 1:09 and change. The Champagne was contested after the Frizette, which had a final time of 1:35 3/5 and the Champagne was run in 1:34 2/5. The track variant for that day for the two routes were a 12, which is far lower than the 23 average that the meet has had so far. He will likely go off a short priced favorite in the Juvenile and his odds will probably be far lower than the acceptable value one can take on him.
Quality Road ran some scintillatingly fast races earlier this year with wins in the Donn and Metropolitan Handicaps, his last two efforts at Saratoga leave something to be desired. He set a mild pace in the Whitney Handicap and was narrowly defeated by the closer Blame and the Woodward he beat a weak field in a workout-like time of 1:50. They have had him training up to the Classic since his last start in early September and one has to wonder if the 1 ¼ miles is appropriate distance for this horse. His best races have come either at a one-turn mile or two turns going 1 1/8 miles. In fairness though his two tries at 10 furlongs were over sloppy surfaces chasing Summer Bird. Blame, Zenyatta, and Lookin At Lucky will likely lead the cavalry charge going into the stretch and a horse like Haynesfield on the lead will certainly make things harder for Quality Road in his attempt to win the Classic.
Life At Ten has been a gem of consistency for Pletcher with five wins out of six starts in and no off the board finishes this year. Her only loss of 2010 was the Personal Ensign where she dueled with Rachel Alexandra. She rebounded nicely from that defeat with a win in the Beldame though. The noticeable thing of her last race was her ability to stay a length or two off the leader while riding the rail and making a run at the top of the stretch after waiting to be called on for 7 furlongs. Her chief opponents in the Distaff are a pair of three year old fillies that will likely take a lot of support, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. They have battled each other in three straight races, all of which had a combined winning margin of less than a length and will have to face older females for the first time. Out of the all the high profile Pletcher horses that will run Life At Ten may offer the best value from a win betting standpoint.
17 October 2010
Sweeping Move~Play Of The Day
Belmont Park Race 9
Looks like a power play on #5 Frances Gardner. Love the maiden breaker and the " sweeping move". This is the type of gambit that wins flat mile turf races at Belmont. I have a hunch that she will love it here and the price should be right. Willing to forgive the stakes try and the clunker on the speed favoring Spa turf. Belmont will be much more friendly to her closing style.
Win #5 Frances Gardner
stats
26 8-2-3
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $83.40
$2 ROI $3.21
average winner $10.43
Win #5 Frances Gardner
stats
26 8-2-3
strike rate 31%
cumulative return $83.40
$2 ROI $3.21
average winner $10.43
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