Preakness Stakes
I'll be rooting for Mine That Bird, he has gotten so little respect after the derby. That being said I don't think The Bird will replicate the form from the derby. It is easy to like Rachel Alexandra but I will play against her. She is a heavy favorite and I wish her well. However I would not not be surprised to see the step up in class, the larger field and increased pressure become an issue with her, causing her to not finish strongly. There is a bit of hysteria about Rachel Alexandra, a reaction to her visually impressive race in the oaks. I would like to capitalize on that visually generated hysteria as she is going to bet like she can't lose.
I will have an exacta keying on Big Drama boxed with Papa Clem, Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man. It will be a generous exacta if both the Filly and the Derby winner finish out of the frame. The win bet lands on Big Drama who is the speed of the speed and has not been headed on the line since is first race. I suspect they may just leave him alone out there on the front end and he will take them wire to wire in a 10-1 shocker.
Win #1 Big Drama
22 10-2-1
strike rate 45%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.35
Power cap- existential handicapping
1 comment:
Not too happy with this pick. Big Drama supposedly had an issue in his stall the night before and was a complete mess in the parade and in the gate. The stretchout, the pedigree and his behavior all caught up to Big Drama
The very impressive oaks winner handled the class hike and put away Big Drama with ease. Her impressive win should have resonated with more vigor. Congrats to all that made the proper call. The Derby winner proved that his win was no fluke and gallantly made up big ground on Rachel late. My hats off to both of them.
23 10-2-1
strike rate 43%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.20
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