Belmont Race 9
Grade I winner Dancing Forever returns from a October layoff here and will surely be less than even money. Yes he could win but there is a significant reward in beating him and the distance and pace will not be to his liking. A horse here with a huge pace edge in #6 Fluke. This horse is a group winner in South America and should be all alone on the lead. With a short field and the main contention being a deep closer he should be the boss up front on a slow pace. Great shot to go wire to wire.
Win #6 Fluke
23 10-2-1
strike rate 43%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.20
Power cap- existential handicapping
31 May 2009
26 May 2009
Rene Douglas
As a racing fan we are indebted to the jockeys that take the risks required to put on the show. Horseplayers risk bankroll and their good name but these things can be replaced as quickly as they are lost. These jockeys risk their lives, their health and their ability to take care of their family. What they risk is priceless. At any time a life could be lost on the track. Can you imagine the irony of risking your life for a complete strangers entertainment only to be heckled and called a pinhead by those strangers day after day. In light of Rene Douglas' accident hopefully there will be a day where this type of heckling is unacceptable at any racetrack.
Even though I don't know him personally and he does not ride regularly on my home circuit the incident over weekend with Rene Douglas affected me. He has been on my mind and in my thoughts and prayers. I am hoping that his physical and mental strength as an athlete pulls him through this tremendously challenging life event. The greatest game also carries the greatest risks.
Here is my fondest memory of Rene Douglas as he rode fearlessly in the 2008 Manhattan Handicap on Dancing Forever;
The Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund is a worthwhile charity to donate to.
Even though I don't know him personally and he does not ride regularly on my home circuit the incident over weekend with Rene Douglas affected me. He has been on my mind and in my thoughts and prayers. I am hoping that his physical and mental strength as an athlete pulls him through this tremendously challenging life event. The greatest game also carries the greatest risks.
Here is my fondest memory of Rene Douglas as he rode fearlessly in the 2008 Manhattan Handicap on Dancing Forever;
The Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund is a worthwhile charity to donate to.
21 May 2009
Rachel Alexandra Wannabe
The typically conservative Angel Penna Jr. has entered three year old filly Warm Shower against older males in Thursday's 8th race at Belmont. Is this aggressive entry the start of Rachel Alexandra fever? Is Rachel's success against the boys a watershed event that will initiate a trend of girl horses racing against and beating boy horses? At 12-1 morning line Warm Shower will provide a nice return if she can beat the well regarded Unbridled's Heart and the rest of the field. The barn thought enough of Warm Shower to nominate her to the Sands Point this weekend. With this information two things are clear to us that might not be so clear to the rest of the wagering public. The barn loves the filly and she is doing great right now. Rather than wait for a spot in a few weeks that may not fill they need a race A.S.A.P. and will take on the boys. With all of the male-chauvinist pigs disregarding Warm Shower due to her perceived inferior gender we will surely get a great price. Chalk it up as the play of the day.
Belmont Race 8
W# 3 Warm Shower
23 10-2-1
strike rate 43%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.20
Belmont Race 8
W# 3 Warm Shower
23 10-2-1
strike rate 43%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.20
20 May 2009
Belmont Special Returns To Service
After many posts and and yet another raise in taxes the Belmont Special will return to service next Thursday. Finally Power Cap will see a return on investment on his local taxes dedicated to the MTA.
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| From Power Cap |
18 May 2009
Preakness Validation For All
The Preakness has initiated a form turn around for the game of horse racing. All of the key players in the race were validated. Jess Jackson who reportedly paid up to $10 million for Rachel Alexandra validated big money, big ego, last minute purchasers. Rachel Alexandra who was doubted by many handicapping nitwits, was validated as the best three year old in the country, she was sensational. The supposedly fluky derby winner, given less respect than Rodney Dangerfield, unleashed a power run, validating his derby win and proving himself a very nice 3 year old classic winner. Even Tom Durkin with his much maligned derby call delivered a scintillating account of the Preakness validating his position at the top of the American racecaller hierarchy.
Jess Jackson took a huge risk on Rachel Alexandra and it is good for racing that he was rewarded, rather than made a fool. Jackson's success may encourage others with the need for ego validation to get involved in the racing game. Can you imagine Donald Trump droning in the winners circle, "she is the best filly in all of of America, she is like Trump National Golf Club the best golf course in all of Westchester Country New York." While some may resent someone like Jackson throwing around money to position himself at the top, those people are missing a crucial point. It is vital that there is still men like Jackson to invest in the game at the top level. If there were a few more like him the game would resume it's rightful position at the top of the sport hierarchy. Headlines would be generated, buzz would be induced and irresistible competitive races would be made.
Rachel Alexandra was brilliant in the race. The piddly concerns of handicappers concerning her class were unfounded. She handled the class hike, the larger field, the increased pressure and the crowd. She single handedly dominated the race and was clearly a force on the front end. She dominated the results like an alpha-female in charge of a band of rouge bachelors. The closer the race is examined the more impressive her race appears. She cooked every horse within reach of her. Big Drama was defeated before they hit the top of the lane. Friesan Fire was third early and wound up well beaten. Pioneerof was close up early in forth but suffered the worst defeat of his race career and finished11th. Take The Points was another that was close up and finished last. Papa Clem sat right off the pace in the pocket on the rail and was soundly defeated finishing 8 lengths behind her. The horses that rated in 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all ran new beyer number tops. The pace was hot and Rachel controlled all those boys.
Mine That Bird was another who was validated in this race. His win was dismissed as a pure fluke. Many doubted his ability to handle a dry, fast track and the transition to Pimlico. He handled everything quite well and proved his detractors wrong. The son of Birdstone unleashed a power run going into the turn and blew past every horse except the winner. It could be argued that with a better trip he might have won. His derby win was for real, while his Preakness was a loss it still provided sweet vindication for him. Mine That Bird is now respected. He is a very nice horse and has a stout finish to be reckoned with
You want to talk about form reversals , Tom Durkin had a huge form reversal in the Preakness. After Durkin's most disappointing big race call in the derby he delivered a memorable call for the ages in the Preakness. The local caller Rodman at Pimlico is a fine racecaller but listen to both calls of the same race and it is clear who the better caller is. Durkin picked up Mine That Birds power run as it commenced on the far turn, Rodman did not pick the move until The Bird was in the clear past the 1/8th pole. Having Durkin call the races is a wonderful enhancement to the game and his performance validated why he is treasured by so many race fans.
The Preakness was a great race for racing. Many positive stories have emerged from the race along with a sense of excitement. The uninformed articles from the clueless brigade have ceased and articles highlighting racing's authentic, grass roots appeal have emerged by the lot. TV ratings surged and wagering was up an impressive 30% over last years Preakness. Pimlico has eliminated the BYOB policy in the infield which replaced beer guzzling nitwits with real racing fans, accounting for the tremendous spike in wagering. Good riddance to the human filth pit that was the Preakness infield. Not only did the Preakness validate those involved with the game the Preakness validated the game itself.
Jess Jackson took a huge risk on Rachel Alexandra and it is good for racing that he was rewarded, rather than made a fool. Jackson's success may encourage others with the need for ego validation to get involved in the racing game. Can you imagine Donald Trump droning in the winners circle, "she is the best filly in all of of America, she is like Trump National Golf Club the best golf course in all of Westchester Country New York." While some may resent someone like Jackson throwing around money to position himself at the top, those people are missing a crucial point. It is vital that there is still men like Jackson to invest in the game at the top level. If there were a few more like him the game would resume it's rightful position at the top of the sport hierarchy. Headlines would be generated, buzz would be induced and irresistible competitive races would be made.
Rachel Alexandra was brilliant in the race. The piddly concerns of handicappers concerning her class were unfounded. She handled the class hike, the larger field, the increased pressure and the crowd. She single handedly dominated the race and was clearly a force on the front end. She dominated the results like an alpha-female in charge of a band of rouge bachelors. The closer the race is examined the more impressive her race appears. She cooked every horse within reach of her. Big Drama was defeated before they hit the top of the lane. Friesan Fire was third early and wound up well beaten. Pioneerof was close up early in forth but suffered the worst defeat of his race career and finished11th. Take The Points was another that was close up and finished last. Papa Clem sat right off the pace in the pocket on the rail and was soundly defeated finishing 8 lengths behind her. The horses that rated in 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all ran new beyer number tops. The pace was hot and Rachel controlled all those boys.
Mine That Bird was another who was validated in this race. His win was dismissed as a pure fluke. Many doubted his ability to handle a dry, fast track and the transition to Pimlico. He handled everything quite well and proved his detractors wrong. The son of Birdstone unleashed a power run going into the turn and blew past every horse except the winner. It could be argued that with a better trip he might have won. His derby win was for real, while his Preakness was a loss it still provided sweet vindication for him. Mine That Bird is now respected. He is a very nice horse and has a stout finish to be reckoned with
You want to talk about form reversals , Tom Durkin had a huge form reversal in the Preakness. After Durkin's most disappointing big race call in the derby he delivered a memorable call for the ages in the Preakness. The local caller Rodman at Pimlico is a fine racecaller but listen to both calls of the same race and it is clear who the better caller is. Durkin picked up Mine That Birds power run as it commenced on the far turn, Rodman did not pick the move until The Bird was in the clear past the 1/8th pole. Having Durkin call the races is a wonderful enhancement to the game and his performance validated why he is treasured by so many race fans.
The Preakness was a great race for racing. Many positive stories have emerged from the race along with a sense of excitement. The uninformed articles from the clueless brigade have ceased and articles highlighting racing's authentic, grass roots appeal have emerged by the lot. TV ratings surged and wagering was up an impressive 30% over last years Preakness. Pimlico has eliminated the BYOB policy in the infield which replaced beer guzzling nitwits with real racing fans, accounting for the tremendous spike in wagering. Good riddance to the human filth pit that was the Preakness infield. Not only did the Preakness validate those involved with the game the Preakness validated the game itself.
15 May 2009
Preakness Play Of The Day
Preakness Stakes
I'll be rooting for Mine That Bird, he has gotten so little respect after the derby. That being said I don't think The Bird will replicate the form from the derby. It is easy to like Rachel Alexandra but I will play against her. She is a heavy favorite and I wish her well. However I would not not be surprised to see the step up in class, the larger field and increased pressure become an issue with her, causing her to not finish strongly. There is a bit of hysteria about Rachel Alexandra, a reaction to her visually impressive race in the oaks. I would like to capitalize on that visually generated hysteria as she is going to bet like she can't lose.
I will have an exacta keying on Big Drama boxed with Papa Clem, Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man. It will be a generous exacta if both the Filly and the Derby winner finish out of the frame. The win bet lands on Big Drama who is the speed of the speed and has not been headed on the line since is first race. I suspect they may just leave him alone out there on the front end and he will take them wire to wire in a 10-1 shocker.
Win #1 Big Drama
22 10-2-1
strike rate 45%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.35
I'll be rooting for Mine That Bird, he has gotten so little respect after the derby. That being said I don't think The Bird will replicate the form from the derby. It is easy to like Rachel Alexandra but I will play against her. She is a heavy favorite and I wish her well. However I would not not be surprised to see the step up in class, the larger field and increased pressure become an issue with her, causing her to not finish strongly. There is a bit of hysteria about Rachel Alexandra, a reaction to her visually impressive race in the oaks. I would like to capitalize on that visually generated hysteria as she is going to bet like she can't lose.
I will have an exacta keying on Big Drama boxed with Papa Clem, Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man. It will be a generous exacta if both the Filly and the Derby winner finish out of the frame. The win bet lands on Big Drama who is the speed of the speed and has not been headed on the line since is first race. I suspect they may just leave him alone out there on the front end and he will take them wire to wire in a 10-1 shocker.
Win #1 Big Drama
22 10-2-1
strike rate 45%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.35
14 May 2009
Criminal Play Of The Day
Belmont race 8
8-1 on Plenty Coups at Belmont is a complete steal. Plenty Coup is poised to steal this race wire to wire. With a lone speed set up, the inside post and the 9F speed favoring inner track set up, this one will be lone gone when the real running starts. If the 8-1 price holds expect a visit from the cops later as that price is an absolute steal.
Win #1 Plenty Coups
21 10-2-1
strike rate 48%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.51
8-1 on Plenty Coups at Belmont is a complete steal. Plenty Coup is poised to steal this race wire to wire. With a lone speed set up, the inside post and the 9F speed favoring inner track set up, this one will be lone gone when the real running starts. If the 8-1 price holds expect a visit from the cops later as that price is an absolute steal.
Win #1 Plenty Coups
21 10-2-1
strike rate 48%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.51
Slot Machines Spreading Disease
When slots were introduced in Delaware during the 1990's they were thought to be the savior of Delaware racing. Now that all of the unintended consequences of that governmental action have been accounted for, the slots have matured into a disease sickening every track on the east coast from Boston to Richmond. The most critical patient is Maryland racing which has been infected from all sides as slot enhanced racing has leached horsemen, horses and handle from its borders into neighboring jurisdictions. Beyer penned a controversial article earlier this week suggesting that Laurel should be shuttered and Pimlico remade as a spring boutique meet. There is virtue in his logic.
The core issue here is too much racing and nil cooperation. Slots propping up an unappealing product is akin to having a braindead patient hooked up to a respirator. The patient is alive but it is no life and he is a burden to all those around him. The surplus of unappealing slot enhanced racing is becoming a burden to the family of racetracks on the east coast and has spread disease throughout all of them.
A circuit including the tracks within DE, MD and VA should be pursued. Overlap of endless, unappealing meets and short fields can and must be reduced. Each tracks strengths could be highlighted. A festival atmosphere will return, instead of a daily grind of endless racing. A spring Preakness at Pimlico which transitions into an early summer of turf racing at Colonial Downs culminating in the Virginia Derby. Then more Summer racing at Delaware featuring well regarded stakes races like the Delaware handicap. Then as the leaves begin to fall a migration back to Maryland for the fall championship races like the DC International, Laurel Futurity and finally the Maryland Million.
The surplus of racing must be addressed. Short fields are spreading like a crisis and have even moved into the midwest. This crisis could be used to spark positive and much needed action. A Mid-Atlantic cooperative of tracks in DE, MD, and VA should be pursued to align racing dates. Cooperation will leave each track collectively strengthened and the racing product improved. It is time for collective leadership beyond the self-interest of each individual track .
The core issue here is too much racing and nil cooperation. Slots propping up an unappealing product is akin to having a braindead patient hooked up to a respirator. The patient is alive but it is no life and he is a burden to all those around him. The surplus of unappealing slot enhanced racing is becoming a burden to the family of racetracks on the east coast and has spread disease throughout all of them.
A circuit including the tracks within DE, MD and VA should be pursued. Overlap of endless, unappealing meets and short fields can and must be reduced. Each tracks strengths could be highlighted. A festival atmosphere will return, instead of a daily grind of endless racing. A spring Preakness at Pimlico which transitions into an early summer of turf racing at Colonial Downs culminating in the Virginia Derby. Then more Summer racing at Delaware featuring well regarded stakes races like the Delaware handicap. Then as the leaves begin to fall a migration back to Maryland for the fall championship races like the DC International, Laurel Futurity and finally the Maryland Million.
The surplus of racing must be addressed. Short fields are spreading like a crisis and have even moved into the midwest. This crisis could be used to spark positive and much needed action. A Mid-Atlantic cooperative of tracks in DE, MD, and VA should be pursued to align racing dates. Cooperation will leave each track collectively strengthened and the racing product improved. It is time for collective leadership beyond the self-interest of each individual track .
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