'Tis The Holiday Season

Who says racing cannot be festive during this time of year? Hollywood is running grade ones and high class racing throughout the weekend capped off by the Hollywood Derby, Churchill has a slew of high class racing on tap, and Aqueduct is showcasing its last big day of racing of the year before the inner track meet starts. A lot of holiday weekends have top notch racing, Memorial Day and Labor Day Weekend come to mind, this one coming up gets lost in the shuffle of yearly racing due to the timing of it happening three weeks after the Breeders’ Cup. While a lot of these races don’t have the elite names in the sport running, they serve as a important races regardless. Blame won the Clark Handicap and went on to a Stephen Foster, Whitney Handicap, Breeders’ Cup Classic triple this year. Bluegrass Cat won the 2005 Remsen en route to a Derby second place finish and a Haskell win the following year. Congaree, won the 2002 Cigar Mile Handicap as a four year old setting up for a solid season at five that included wins in the Hollywood Gold Cup, Carter Handicap, San Antonio Handicap, San Pasqual Handicap, and a repeat effort of the Cigar Mile. Cigar won the Cigar Mile back in 1994 when it was called the NYRA Mile for his second out of 16 in a row and his first stakes win.

Cigar Mile

First a little more history, this race was started in 1988 and is still the only other grade one dirt mile race on the schedule for handicap males other than the Metropolitan Handicap. Only one horse has captured both of these races and it wasn’t in the same year, Sir Bear won the 1999 Met Mile and the 1998 Cigar Mile. This year Bribon is trying the same feat as Sir Bear, the 2009 Met Mile winner is coming into this race off of a win in the Bold Ruler that was run on a slightly slower than usual surface.

A few of Breeders’ Cup returnees are entered in this race as well. Haynesfield is looking for a good bounce-back effort from his Classic flop and Musket Man is also coming back off a flat effort from that same race. Girolamo’s backers in the Sprint get a chance to make back the money they lost on him in early November and his stable mate Vineyard Haven is here after a stale performance in the Dirt Mile. It is like a convention of Breeders’ Cup duds who happen to earn their paychecks in New York.

Remsen Stakes

28 minutes before this race the Demoiselle takes place and it is not part of the pick four sequence. There is a $250,000 guaranteed pool that has three stakes races and the last leg is a claiming race. The fact that there is no all stakes pick four scheduled is a bit odd. Other racing days like the Belmont Stakes, Wood Memorial, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup where there is four or more stakes in a row they have this wager, yet it is no where in sight for this late November sequence. An all stakes pick four followed by the sequence they have set up was could have been done very easily, at least they have a grand slam linking up all four stakes races.

The Remsen has had an unfortunate recent history of producing Derby flops, since Thunder Gulch won the 1994 renewal there hasn’t been a winner of the race to go on to Derby glory. The last two winners didn’t even reach the post position draw for the big race and the two winners before that went on to greater glory on turf rather than dirt. This year we get To Honor and Serve as the probable heavy favorite, his last race was visual masterpiece, but looking at the race a bit closer shows two things. The first is that he got an easy pace to wire the field and the second is he faced four overmatched rivals. It may be worthwhile to look around for a price in this race.

Marylou Whitney and Nick Zito must be kicking themselves after letting go of Mountain Town in a maiden claiming race for $75,000 back in August. He may go on to bigger and better things after running decently against the division leader Uncle Mo. He gets a weight break dropping six pounds off of that last race and is a major threat to win the Remsen.

Here today, gone tomorrow

Churchill wraps up its month long meet on Saturday with tons of juvenile action headlined by the Golden Rod for fillies and the Kentucky Jockey Club for colts and geldings. The juvenile showcase day has had a very good recent history of producing at least one noteworthy racehorse the following year. In 2009 Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club on the way to the Kentucky Derby. Rachel Alexandra was the winner of the 2008 Golden Rod, which was her first of eleven stakes wins that included the Preakness and Haskell.

Horse Of The Year Takes Down GIII

Forget about the wasting your energy in the Zenyatta/Blame HOTY pissing match. In Power Cap's world the horse of the year is a done deal and it is a three year old New York Bred. Our own personal "horse of the year" Stormy's Majesty wins the Discovery handicap at the Big-A and fulfills our prophecy of winning a graded stakes race. Take a look and see how Stormy's Majesty dwarfs the other horses in the race and powers past for the score. This colt has won five out of eight races and only has been the favorite once in his career. We were even able to get a piece of the action in a big way.

More from DRF.COM

Stormy's Majesty, the lone New York-bred in the field, rolled to a two-length win over Not Abroad Saturday in the Grade 3, $100,000 Discovery Handicap for 3-year-olds at Aqueduct. Edgar Prado was aboard for trainer Dominic Galluscio as Stormy's Majesty ($9.10) improved to 5 for 8 with his first win in open company. A homebred for Majesty Stud, Stormy's Majesty had captured the Albany Stakes for statebreds in August at Saratoga. Prior to Saturday, he ran last in the Empire Classic against older New York-bred foes. In the Discovery, Stormy's Majesty was well in command. He battled Golden Moka for the early lead before dispatching that rival with a quick burst at the top of the final turn. "In the Empire Classic he got behind and didn't seem to catch his stride or breathe as well," Galluscio said. "I was surprised he was on the lead because it looked like there were horses with more speed, but I was very comfortable when they showed the fractions and saw the way Edgar was sitting." Stormy's Majesty was on cruise control the rest of the way, needing only minimal encouragement from Prado. The time was 1:50.02 for the 1 1/8 miles on the fast track. Teaks North was third followed by Overcommunication, Golden Moka, Al Muhtasib, and Dominant Jeannes.

Big-A Handicapping Challenge Report

After many years of procrastination I finally entered the Big-A handicapping challenge; a solid pick four score provided the funds for the $400 entry fee. It was my first shot at a live handicapping tournament. These tournaments are taken very seriously. Many of the players had laptops, Ragozin sheets and a file so large it looks like they were doing corporate tax returns. I must have looked very amateurish with my "power cap" composition book and DRF printouts. The Big-A tournament makes for a long weekend of handicapping. This is not just a day at the races. It is a 5 days of pouring over three different tracks for two race days in a row. It sort of becomes a mental endurance challenge by the end of the second raceday.

The first day was a near disaster and a huge disappointment. There is nothing worse than entering a contest, capping for 8 hours and having nothing to show for it for the first nine selections. Tough decisions were fumbled. My big regret-horse betting is filled with them- is betting Daveron to win in the Long Island in the contest but betting her to show with $20 real cash. I spotted the bridgejumper action but elected to just bet against the bridgies for real cash and bet an orthodox win bet in the contest. This was totally foolish. Daveron ran second and paid over $15 to show. I was 0 for 9 going into the nightcap at AQU and hit a modest $8 winner (Broken Home) to get off the duck. That was it for day one only one small hit and was in 103th place out of 220 players after day one. Two horses I picked ran last as I was shooting for the moon with outrageous bombs hoping for form-turnarounds on surface switches that never happened.

Day two also started off slow with chalk beating my first two contest selections. Then in Churchill my luck turned. The first winner on day two was in a $50K maiden claiming race; I noticed that most of the horses were stretching out and were speed and fade types. Channeling was the only closer in the race with positive stretch comments and he was cutting back from two turns to one. Closers cutting back from two turns to one is a profile I fancy. To my delight Channeling rolled and payed a generous $31.20. Just this one winner elevated me to 20th place in the contest.

Then two races later I popped a first time starter in a $30K maiden claimer at Churchill that paid $20. What I liked about this horse was that he was working well over the course and the trainer had great first time starter stats listed in the form. To my surprise just these two hits propelled me right into contention for the championship.


Calabrese was listed all over Aqueduct in 3rd place and I felt like I was on top of the world. 3rd would be the closest I would get to winning. I continued my aggressive play but could not get lucky the rest of the day. Maybe I should have adjusted my approach and keyed on live 5-2 to 5-1 shots. Fortunately the total from my three winners was good enough for 15th at the end of two long days. It turns out the Daveron show bet mistake cost me $4300 but mistakes will happen in this game. In the end I walked away with $700. Not bad considering I had a horrible weekend only hitting with three of my twenty contest wagers -yet it was good enough to contend for the title. Next time with a contest under my belt I feel like I will be a live contestant; someone with the potential to walk away with more than $700. My advice to others is to enter these tournaments. They can be very rewarding and introduce new points of view to your handicapping approach. There is no reason to be intimidated as it really doesn't take all that much to win one. If going a miserable 3 for 20 is enough to contend for the title imagine what could be done if a capper has a good luck and live selections.

Aqueduct Handicapping Challenge Results

FINAL STANDINGS

Name	Player	Rank	Winnings	Wagers
Ragab	213	1	862	20
Clements	212	2	849	20
DiFusco	96	3	798	20
HOM	189	4	760	20
Elam	85	5	749	20
CONTE	19	6	720	20
Fitzpatrick	176	7	665	20
Henry	39	8	657	20
Summers	118	9	645	20
MICHAELS	136	10	623	20
Mark	164	11	611	20
Florides	201	12	603	20
Malangone	190	12	603	20
LEIBMAN	125	14	599	20
Calabrese	97	15	593	20
Famularo	104	16	589	20
Weber	92	17	588	20
Longobardi	41	18	585	20
NOLAN	60	19	567	20
De Sena	178	20	564	20
Civelin	196	21	545	20
Rippey	28	22	540	20
Couvaris	120	23	532	20
Johnson	81	23	532	20
Valeriani	73	25	521	20
Racenstein	185	26	520	20
ZIMMER	24	26	520	20
WINICK	132	28	506	20
RENDINO	180	29	499	20
CARSON	23	30	481	20
Templin	137	31	474	20
Jordan	199	32	459	20
Cox	140	33	458	20
Perry	110	34	449	20
FOTI	6	35	448	20
Ferraro	48	36	440	20
Lods	1	37	437	20
Olsson	10	38	435	20
RITTER	133	39	432	20
LEVINE	66	40	426	20
Cornelia	197	41	423	20
Kiss	177	42	422	20
Korman	131	42	422	20
Engelhard	121	44	419	20
ZIMMER	25	45	416	20
Berg	144	46	415	20
FOTI	5	46	415	20
Mohamed	45	48	414	20
Shuman	139	49	408	20
Russo	127	50	403	20
Henry	38	51	400	20
WILLIAMS	79	52	392	20
Schwartz	147	53	390	20
Rowlands	111	54	389	20
SPINELLO	49	55	387	20
Rippey	29	56	380	20
Brooks	165	57	377	20
DELIA	52	58	373	20
MAYS	65	59	370	20
HARRIS	89	60	361	20
Faello	130	61	360	20
Felt	46	62	354	20
Teicht	150	63	342	20
Sterio	71	64	335	20
Kelly	86	65	330	20
Moscatelli	214	66	329	20
TILLES	88	67	326	20
Natale	43	68	324	20
Bamberger	15	69	320	20
DARRON	4	69	320	20
GARRITON	64	69	320	20
Lawless	102	69	320	20
ODonnell	119	69	320	20
Reese	191	69	320	20
Smith	204	75	316	20
McCruden	129	76	314	20
MAGNETTI	105	77	312	20
MANCARI	61	77	312	20
Surmick	37	77	312	20
Amendola	142	80	304	20
Smith	128	80	304	20
Zukaitis	69	82	302	20
Wecker	75	83	299	20
WOLFSON SR	186	84	296	20
Harris	141	85	295	20
Majkowski	195	86	292	20
McLaughlin	126	87	291	19
KLICH	62	87	291	20
Murray	112	87	291	20
Falcone	40	90	290	20
JOHNSON	215	91	285	20
Streiff	209	91	285	20
Gutfreund	12	93	284	20
Neuburger	124	94	282	20
Flanagan	109	95	269	20
Wankmiller	106	95	269	20
Fasola	202	97	268	20
MICHAEL	183	98	267	20
WELSH	58	99	262	20
Gianquitti	51	100	260	20
MC CLYMENT	68	100	260	20
MC CLYMENT	67	100	260	20
NACE	123	100	260	20
Seeman	13	100	260	20
Leone	168	105	251	20
Sorenson	84	106	237	20
Burke	198	107	231	20
Padgett	134	108	228	20
Zmich	211	108	228	20
Tsui	2	110	226	20
Lochansky	87	111	214	20
Pallidine	163	111	214	20
DAMBRA	152	113	201	20
Downie	216	114	200	20
GREENVALD	53	114	200	20
Fasola	170	116	188	20
Filoso	205	116	188	20
Hamer	93	118	187	20
Hamer	94	118	187	20
Reuben	167	120	175	20
Garofalo	34	121	171	20
CARSON	22	122	170	18
Kandias	210	123	166	20
Hilado	161	124	159	20
Esposito	95	125	154	20
Smith	203	126	152	20
Wolfson,Jr	187	126	152	20
Boyle	80	128	151	20
DAVIS	33	129	139	20
Pellegrino	217	130	124	20
Weber	91	131	120	19
Cettina	83	131	120	20
Isolano	3	131	120	20
Powers	114	131	120	17
Conte	56	135	111	20
BRICE	21	136	110	20
Festa	158	136	110	20
Stewart	172	136	110	20
Deicke	155	139	104	19
Girardi	157	139	104	20
Hopkins	17	139	104	20
Ciprelli	174	142	95	20
CONTE	18	143	94	19
SPINELLO	50	143	94	19
AURIEMMA	42	143	94	20
BUSER	8	143	94	20
Hopkins	16	143	94	20
NELSON	30	143	94	20
Parker	166	143	94	20
Sultan	192	143	94	20
Dunkel	148	151	92	19
Engelhard	122	152	90	20
McClenin	99	153	85	20
Powers	113	153	85	20
STATH	90	153	85	20
Streiff	208	153	85	20
Richardson	107	157	84	10
Gutfreund	11	157	84	15
Jackson	188	159	81	10
Arsenault	116	159	81	20
Herman	138	159	81	20
Russo	171	159	81	20
Salierno	184	159	81	20
Surmick	36	159	81	20
GIORDANO	181	165	80	20
Garofalo	35	166	76	19
BUSER	7	167	67	20
Gallagher	160	168	57	10
Mooney	54	168	57	20
Fooden	27	170	55	20
Teicht	151	171	50	20
DAVIS	32	172	45	20
Scanio	74	172	45	20
Visco	207	174	22	20
OConnell	146	175	0	10
Rowlands	169	175	0	7
Sidor	98	175	0	10
CLEMENTS	220	175	0	17
BROOKS	218	175	0	19
Fotias	20	175	0	19
GROSE	154	175	0	19
HOUSTON	219	175	0	19
Houston	206	175	0	19
Shurman	101	175	0	19
ALBANO	55	175	0	20
Arsenault	117	175	0	20
Berg	200	175	0	20
Berg	143	175	0	20
CLARK	173	175	0	20
Caputo	44	175	0	20
Dantonio	194	175	0	20
De Orio	108	175	0	20
ENGLER	57	175	0	20
Elliott	175	175	0	20
FELRICE	153	175	0	20
Ferraro	47	175	0	20
Fooden	26	175	0	20
Gianquitti	70	175	0	20
HEALY	182	175	0	20
Kingsbury	149	175	0	20
LAM	156	175	0	20
LEVY	78	175	0	20
MICHAELS	135	175	0	20
NELSON	31	175	0	20
NOLAN	59	175	0	20
Olsson	9	175	0	20
Parisi	145	175	0	20
RENDINO	179	175	0	20
Riccobono	82	175	0	20
SCANIO	63	175	0	20
Seeman	14	175	0	20
Shurman	100	175	0	20
Smith-Lawless	103	175	0	20
Stair	159	175	0	20
WOLFSON SR	115	175	0	19
Weber	193	175	0	20
Wecker	76	175	0	20
Yarwood	162	175	0	20
Yee	77	175	0	20
Yee	72	175	0	20

10 second pick 3

A special play for Saturday. I really like Spa City Fever to go wire to wire in the 6th at Aqueduct. He is true lone speed and working well over at Belmont. Race 7 looks wide open and then we have "Power Cap horse of the year 2010" Stormy's Majesty in race 8. Looks like a pick 3 play if I ever saw one.

Big A race 6 pick 3 4 /ALL / 2

A return to normalcy

The Breeders' Cup is two weeks removed and fading into the rear view mirror until next year. Horse racing moves on, unless you work for the Daily Racing Form. The writers for that publication will not stop talking about Zenyatta’s loss in the Classic. This will be the only paragraph you will see about her loss, she was on the dead rail headed into the stretch and had to make up more ground than anyone else in that race by moving off the rail during the stretch. If Smith swings her out wide at the top of the stretch like he has done so many times before, the outcome may be different. Yes, it was Smith’s mistake and mistakes happen. After Cigar’s first loss in 17 starts Bailey took the blame because the horse could be held to fault after 16 straight wins. As for the horse of the year controversy, who cares? The top two finishers are headed to the breeding shed and they faced off once, it is not like it is the end of a great rivalry like Sunday Silence versus Easy Goer or Affirmed versus Alydar, it was one race with two top quality horses. Only two groups of people place any importance on Eclipse awards, out of touch racing journalists and overly devoted fans of the horses in the running for these awards. There are plenty of races after the Breeders’ Cup and a lot of it is worth watching.

The Mad Hatter Stakes

Just to highlight the ridiculousness of placing too much importance on Beyer Speed Figures, take a look at Understatement. He ran a figure of 115 in February and the Classic winner had a figure of 111, if you go solely on these numbers you will be tempted to say that Understatement is a beast that could have mopped the floor with the Classic field. Closer form inspection shows that he runs his best on the winter surface at Aqueduct though, he ran that big number over the ice rink last January and was shipped to the mid-Atlantic twice in the spring to no success. His tries at Monmouth last year were also mediocre in comparison to his inner track record. It also could stand to reason that his form cycle peaks during the winter as evidenced by his big effort in December of 2009 before running big efforts in two stakes at the Big A. When the racing returns to the inner track, beware of this one.

Suburban Handicap winner Dry Martini is going to post for the 35th time in this race. The one thing that racing has not been good at in recent times is promoting the geldings, they make up most of the horse population at any given track and they run in more races than the high class stallions do as well. The geldings are a great promotional tool, because you know that the breeding shed will never call and all they can do is race. More Than a Reason is not gelded and is making his 59th start, I guess winning starter allowances is not highly sought after in the breeding shed. He made 24 starts last year and 16 starts this year, a total of 40 starts with five wins and a little over $300,000 to show for it, not bad at all.

Juvenile clearinghouse

The Delta Jackpot will be renewed for the eighth time today, seven times prior this race as produced nothing more than futile longshots for the Kentucky Derby. Despite that fact trainers will send their juveniles in this spot because it makes it that much easier to get into the Derby field even if their horse doesn’t have any foundation being in that spot. If there ever was a solid reasoning for restructuring the the Derby entry process this is the example that could be used.

Uncle Mo was a much the best winner in the juvenile, but before everyone goes rushing to Vegas for Derby futures on this one, here is something to consider. The last three Juvenile winners failed to reach the gate come the first Saturday in May following Street Sense’s Juvenile/Derby double in 2007. For some reason the runner-ups and also-rans from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile seem to fare better going forward. This is not a recent trend either, Alysheba was third in the 1987 Juvenile and won the Derby and Preakness the following year. Lookin at Lucky and Afleet Alex were on the board in juvenile and went onto bigger and better things, Wilko never panned out and Vale of York all but disappeared from the radar if it wasn’t for a recent notice about his retirement.

Discovery Handicap

This race usually produces some good runners going forward, a recent example is Haynesfield. Reaching into the vault, Evening Attire was the winner of this race back in 2001. Recently a half brother of Evening Attire, Con the Cat broke his maiden over the Big A carrying the tradition of success over the Aqueduct oval in the family’s genes. If Con the Cat is half as good as his older brother than he should be a hell of a racehorse. Not much insight on this running of the Discovery though, just an excuse to post a youtube link to Evening Attire’s 65/1 upset in this race.

Breeders' Cup Roundup, Saturday edition

Six races in the books and eight more to go, if yesterday’s results taught us anything it is that shopping for prices during the Breeders’ Cup is still the way to go. Not a single pari-mutuel favorite won throughout the Breeders’ Cup portion of the Churchill card. The heavy chalk did manage to hit the board in the Distaff, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Fillies and Mares turf. Playing the heavy favorites underneath may be the way to go for the remaining Breeders’ Cup races.

Juvenile Turf

From the looks of it there should not be a horse going off less than 4/1 in this race, this is a very wide-open field. As I said yesterday about the Juvenile Fillies, someone has to win this. If you have a dartboard lying around it may be your best handicapping tool in this race.

Sprint

Warrior’s Reward is in this race and not the Dirt Mile, his form has been darkened up a bit with his last three starts. The Met Mile he was on the pace, he doesn’t like Saratoga all that much and he showed it in the Forego, and he is zero for two on synthetics. It may be worthwhile to use Warrior’s Reward in the exotics based on the value and the murky form.

Turf Sprint

If you found a dartboard and used it for the Juvenile Turf, keeping that out for this race highly advised.

Juvenile

Looking at the pedigrees of this field, it seems like less than half of them can go any further than 1 1/8 miles. JP’s Gusto has had a very nice season out in southern California, yet there are two knocks on him coming into this race. The first being he has a great sprinters’ pedigree and the other is he did not stay the distance of 1 1/16 miles despite a perfect trip. Boys At Tosconova has been training like clockwork and has some stamina influence on the mare’s side of the pedigree with Coronado’s Quest. Unclue Mo will probably be an underlay in this race, his connections are always bet, the big speed figures are always bet, and he was less than even money in his first two starts.

Mile

Goldikova is the first one trying to get the hat trick with consecutive Breeders’ Cup wins today. To appreciate the difficulty of this task you have to go back to 1994 when Lure was attempting the same feat in this race. As usual the Mile has some stiff competition lined up, Gio Ponti is three out of four at the distance, Court Vision has turned in his best races at this distance as well, Paco Boy has been chasing Goldikova since June, Sidney’s Candy had a monster race last time out, and Proviso has a great closing kick going a mile.

Dirt Mile

There were two prep races that were set up for this spot, the Kelso Handicap and the Presque Isle Downs Mile. Tizway and Cool Coal Man are the only ones that used the race Kelso and Gayego is coming from the Presque Isle Downs Mile. The rest of the field is coming from an assortment of races that are being used as preps for the Classic or Sprint. The Forego, Woodward, Pennsylvania Derby, Goodwood, and Indiana Derby were the races to be exact.

Turf

Winchester is the America’s best chance at winning this race, the Turf Classic was run over a yielding course at 1 ½ miles, that was a tougher race than the Beyer figures are giving credit for. Debussy has already shipped from England once to win a big race in the U.S., what is stopping him from repeating that effort? His last race was against Vision d’Etat and Twice Over, two top notch runners, and he is in peak form for this effort. Behkabad had a rough trip in the Arc de Triomphe where he was boxed in for most of the race and has run some solid races this year, he could be worth a look at a price.

Classic

Pace makes the race and there is an abundance of it in this race. Quality Road has the rail and very few options, Haynesfield’s best races are on or close to the lead, First Dude is usually up on the pace, and Etched has shown nothing but speed throughout his career. Having just three out of four of the projected speeds up there still would set up for a fast early pace and a sweet trip for the closers like Zenyatta, Blame, and Lookin at Lucky. There isn’t much to say about Zenyatta that any other person has said about her, she is an undefeated freak of nature, but taking short odds on what could be her last race of her career is something that is hard to do in a race loaded with talent. Anyone expecting even money or higher on her in this spot will be sorely mistaken, she has received a bulk of the media attention in the last few weeks and has a very loyal fan base so 2/5 odds is more likely than not.

Home field advantage could be the deciding factor here as it was in the Filly & Mare Sprint a day earlier. Blame is three for four at Churchill and his late kick should be well suited for this race. Fly Down is a horse worth a flyer at long odds, he ran a big race in the Travers and is facing older competition for the second time. Flower Alley comes to mind with this type of angle, he did not run to his ability first time against his elders in the 2005 Jockey Club Gold Cup and came back with a second place finish in the classic that year.

Breeders' Cup Roundup, Friday edition

The first day of the two-day Breeders’ Cup program is on tap with 14 high-class races carded and it has never been a better time to be a spot player. With so many races to choose from a player can bet into the races that are in their wheelhouse and sit out the races that aren’t to their preference.

Marathon

The Sprint used to be the kickoff race for the program back when there were only seven races held. Twice the amount of races scheduled, double up the distance of the first race to be run. This cannot be a coincidence with the way they carded this. The Europeans sent their allowance grade runners in this race too, parroting what their American counterparts do with marathon dirt races on a yearly basis.

Awesome Gem is back to take another crack at the Breeders’ Cup, the seven year old gelding has been to the big dance three times prior and his best finish was a third in the 2007 Classic. Looking at his record two things are apparent, the first and most obvious is that he finishes second a lot with 13 placings out of 38 starts and the other is he may better on dirt than synthetics. His record on dirt is three wins and five on the board finishes out of ten starts, his record on synthetics two wins and seven on the board finishes out of 16 starts.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

This is the first wave of European turf invaders, Together leads the foreign charge in this race with a grade three win and a place finish facing grade one competition two starts back. Winter Memories has a big closing kick and the pedigree that this event was made for with Memories of Silver as the dam. Winter Memories had only two horses beat and was six lengths out of it with 5/16 of a mile left and circled the field to win easily on a yielding course in her last start. She could be a star on the rise.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Informed Decision is the first of four horses trying to repeat from last year’s success in the Breeders’ Cup. I’m sure Vegas has a proposition bet on which horse or horses will repeat in this year’s renewal and if they are offering this proposition bet Informed Decision has to be highest odds of the four. She has lost a step or two from the monster year she had in 2009 when she won six of seven.

A longshot worth a look is Rinterval, she faced Zenyatta two back and was in the teeth of a fast pace last out in the Spinster. The quarter of a mile cutback and switch to dirt could prime her for a big effort at a price in this spot.

Juvenile Fillies

Someone has to win this, none of the horses coming out of the big three preps ran particularly fast. The all button may be a multi-race player’s best friend in this spot. If a longshot wins this race and Winter Memories wins the Juvenile Turf, a case can be made for Winter Memories as the eclipse winner for the juvenile fillies division.

Filly & Mare Turf

Midday is coming into this race with wins in three straight grade one races and is in sharper form than she was last year when she won this race, she will be tough to beat here. Red Desire is better than her last start, which was over a yielding course. Miss Keller had the lead in mid-stretch of the EP Taylor and has been gradually stretching out to a 1 3/8 miles in her last four starts.

Distaff

Still not calling this race the Ladies’ Classic. The pace scenario is interesting in this race, a lot of the public handicappers are projecting Malibu Prayer as the early speed. There may be more horses up front than expected though. Milwaukee Appeal was on the hot pace of the Spinster, Acting Happy is adding blinkers, and Unrivaled Belle has not been worse than third early in her races since October of 2009.

Blind Luck has had a heck of season with eight races at seven different racetracks and five wins out of those starts including a narrow victory in the Kentucky Oaks. If Blind Luck wins the Distaff and a longshot ends up winning the Classic, a case can be made for Blind Luck being horse of the year.

A longshot worth a look is Acoma. She got no respect from the morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia with a 20/1 line. The Spinster was a fast race early and late, in addition to that Acoma is perfect in two starts over the Churchill dirt.