Uncle Mo vs. 1 1/4 miles and fourteen other races

With six Breeders' Cup races on Friday and nine on Saturday, it is almost certain financial doom to play every race. With this being said, we here at Powercap introduce the almost infallible five star rating system to evaluate the races on hand.

The Friday Slate


*****
The Distaff (Race 10)

Last year it was a rematch of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, this year It's Tricky and Plum Pretty square off for the fourth time this year. Elsewhere in the field is Ask the Moon, her connections made an interesting decision of running at Santa Anita in her latest to no avail after two good efforts at the Spa. If she can rebound from her last race, she will be a tough customer here.


****
The Filly & Mare Turf (Race 9)

This is the race where the American based turf runners have the best chance of winning against the Europeans on their familiar surface. Stacelita is listed as the 2/1 favorite and has the edge of winning at 1 3/8 miles around the tight turns. Her last race was over a turf that was dead slow, my figures have it at -19 slow.


***
The Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 7)

Turbulent Descent looks to sew up a title here and she looks like a vulnerable favorite. The Puype filly has been off since early August and the early pace of that race was average at best before Descent blew by competition like Roman Treasure late.

An interesting horse in this spot is Great Hot who had two starts in October and a start against her elders in the Lady's Secret. Her sprint starts are decent from the looks of it going three for three in her attempts.

The Juvenile Sprint (Race 5)

Yet another juvenile cash grab has been added to the schedule. Trinniberg has come up short twice against stakes competition. Secret Circle ran big in his debut race. Toss Vexor's Hopeful performance and he doesn't miss the board in his short career. Seeker had a big race two back on Hopeful day. It should be a good first installment for this race.


**
The Juvenile Fillies (Race 8)

My Miss Aurelia looks to avoid the career trajectory that AZ Warrior took after her win in last year's Frizette.

*
The Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 6)

On the course of any card there is a race or two that handicappers don't like playing and the combined phrase of juvenile fillies on the turf is my kryptonite.

The Saturday Slate

*****
The Classic (Race 11)

The five million dollar question here is Uncle Mo's ability to stay the mile and a quarter. The last time a three year old favorite tried stretching out from one mile to a mile and a quarter was Fusaichi Pegasus. It didn't work in 2000, I have my doubts it will work now. Keep in mind that Fusaichi Pegasus was trying this after winning the Derby. The longest distance that Mo has won at was a mile and a sixteenth.

Ruler On Ice looks interesting here, he gets a ten pound weight shift from To Honor and Serve and has won at a mile and half. Stay Thirsty also gets another look here as the unheralded Repole entry here, he ran in every step of the Belmont and won the midsummer classic. To Honor and Serve comes in hot here and the only setback is he is picking up eight pounds off of his previous start.

****
The Sprint (Race 5)

I guess that Zito is one of the twelve readers of this blog.

The Mile (Race 10)

Apparently Goldikova is on the decline, if I owned a horse that was on this type downward spiral I would be overjoyed. Win or lose, this mare's spot as one of the all time Breeders' Cup performers is secure. It will be quite a while until another one like her comes around.

***
The Dirt Mile (Race 7)

In a rare occurrence the Preakness winner is in a race that is not the Classic. In his defeats since the Preakness the margin has been 7 3/4, a neck, 22 1/2, and 4 3/4. He is probably a good bet against here.

Tapizar came back with a victory after missing the Triple Crown series, he is probably a bit short for this spot. He does look like one to watch out for in the 2012 season though.

Trappe Shot is in this race after seemingly being aimed at the Sprint all season long, his running style better meant for the mile distance though. Not a lot was lost in transition to this race.

The Juvenile Turf (Race 4)

If it weren't for the Pilgrim returnees entered here this race would be a one star affair. Shkspeare Shaliyah and Fantastic Song ran a closing number over the dead boggy turf that was 14 and 17 lengths faster than average. Not bad for a turf runner and that is exceptional for juveniles.

**
The Juvenile (Race 9)

Union Rags could wrap up the Juvenile title and Derby favoritism with a win here. It seems like anytime there is a two year colt that wins two or three big races in NY they are immediately shot to the front of every public handicapper's Derby list. They usually fall short of the Derby expectations. It happened to Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve last year, Nobiz Like Shobiz years ago, and Doneraile Court around a decade ago. The last time a hyped NY juvenile won a triple crown race was 2004 when Birdstone upset the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones.

The Turf (Race 8)

The European invaders will all be bet here and Steven Crist is a big fan of the American turf runners entered. Of course the overseas counterparts have a great edge, they carry weight in the big races and all of their marquee events are on the lawn.

*
The Marathon (Race 3)
The Turf Sprint (Race 6)

These two categories are also my handicapping kryptonite.

He has Mo-mentum

Super Saturday was a formful day where the betting favorite took down four out of the six stakes races. Speed seemed best on the muddy dirt surface where most of the winners were either close to or on the the lead in the early stages.

Stacelita continued her superiority over her own gender on the turf. She will likely be a very well bet favorite for the Filly and Mare Turf off of this effort. How good is this filly? Dubawi Heights, the filly who ran second to Stacelita in the Beverly D. won the Yellow Ribbon a couple of hours later.

Cape Blanco has been racking up the frequent flier miles lately and Dean's Kitten almost took advantage of this. Dean's Kitten ran as a good a race as any of the other winners from today's card. The cross continental trips may be taking a toll Cape Blanco and if he goes in the BC Turf he could be a good play against.

Giant Ryan got to the front during the early stages and did not look back. As the old advertisement for the NY breds goes, "They start with an advantage.".

Uncle Mo loves Belmont and rolls into the Breeders' Cup with this zippy win. The connections of Uncle Mo are toying with the idea of going to the Classic if he did well in this race. It seems like a bad idea, Fusaichi Pegasus tried to the mile stretch out to the classic with no success and Mo seems to thrive at the one turn mile. He could be the first horse to win two different BC races either way, might as well try it in a spot he does well in.

Jackson Bend made a nice run at the winner at the top of the stretch, he has matured into a decent long sprinter. The spot I would run him in off of this race is the BC Sprint, the Dirt Mile may be an 1/8 beyond his best distance and he has not attempted the six furlong distance in quite a while. It may be worth a shot to run in the Sprint.

Havre de Grace won the Beldame with ease and she looked the part of a champion every step of the way through this race. With Blind Luck's loss in the Lady's Secret, her arch rival Havre de Grace edges that much closer to her hopes at Horse of the Year honors.

Flat Out made it two for two over the Belmont dirt with his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Stay Thirsty made a run at the winner, but it was too late. Drosselmeyer ran a nice effort to grab the place spot by making up ground in the last eighth of a mile, this effort could set him up well for the BC Marathon.

Tale of the Tape, Uncle Mo vs. Stay Thirsty

After this past weekend where Mike Repole’s two stars represented his stable very well, it seems like all the talk is about Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. Andy Beyer made it the subject of his Wednesday piece in the Daily Racing Form and Stay Thirsty was the cover story on the Saratoga Special on the same day. Pletcher mentioned in passing after the events of the weekend his intention of not having his two champions not being in the same race during the fall. It only seems fair to match these two up in the way boxers are sized up before a prizefight in the tale of the tape.

Major NY Stakes wins
Uncle Mo: Champagne Stakes
Stay Thirsty: Gotham, Jim Dandy, and Travers
Edge: Thirsty, he is truly NY’s horse. It should be noted due to my general laziness that I am shortening up the names to Mo and Thirsty from this point forward.

Eclipse Awards
Mo: King of the Juvenile colts
Thirsty: Zero
Edge: Mo, there is no such thing as a cheap shot in this venue.

Starts in the 2011 Triple Crown
Mo: Zero
Thirsty: Two
Edge: Thirsty, what goes around comes around.

Powercap Nickname
Mo: Mr. Softee
Thirsty: No nickname given
Edge: Mo, to jest is to care. In hindsight we should have given a nickname to every starter in the Triple Crown series this year. Live and learn.

Respective Performances on August 27th
Mo: Photo finish loss after a five-month layoff with noted medical issues
Thirsty: Won the Travers
Edge: Push, if Mo had the benefit of a race before the King’s Bishop and a bit more in the way of works before the month of July he may have won that race.

Going Forward
Mo: Pennsylvania Derby? Vosburgh? Jockey Club Gold Cup? Who knows?
Thirsty: The main goal in all likeliness in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Edge: Thirsty, a defined course is better than being adrift at sea with no direction.

Beyer Speed Figure
Mo: 106
Thirsty: 101
Edge: Mo, even in defeat he puts up a lot of heat. He probably is a better one-turn runner than a router as well.

This is getting tiresome, after seven rounds of conjecture it is all tied up at 3-3 with one push. Well, this didn’t solve anything at all. Might as well have them run against each other at some point in the near future.

A photo finish is worth three words

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Uncle Mo

Nickname: Mr. Softee

First Impression: He certainly looks exposed after that Wood Memorial.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: His last race was just a speed bump and the loss will toughen him up

The case against: He probably has some distance limitations like Favorite Trick did. He hasn’t had a tough work schedule since his Breeders’ Cup win. Other top prospects have been solidifying their postions while Mo was vacationing at Palm Meadows.

Thanks Pletcher, nice training job. If a heavy favorite loses it should finish off the board, not a meager third saving the bridge jumpers from an embarrassing loss. In addition to that Uncle Mo losing destroyed the pick fours and pick sixes that had him singled. Imagine being alive in a pick six that started with 8/1 and 6/1 winners and having what looks like a mortal lock as the single. It feels good, right? The 1/10 shot runs like a 10/1 plug, not such a great feeling anymore. The pick six players had to have played those tickets off site, because the lack of property damage and no rioting at Aqueduct after that loss with so much money riding on one horse is astounding. There has been rioting at Yonkers Raceway for less.

For selfish reasons I wanted to see Uncle Mo win the Wood. Not because I had any money on him, but for the reason that it would be a nice finish to this series. It is like a writer at Game 6 of the 1986 World Series cheering for the Red Sox to win for the reason that the article they wrote was completed; a change in the outcome will cause massive changes close to a deadline. Instead of a strong finish to this series now it will limp to the finish line like Uncle Mo, thanks Pletcher.

No Mo

In his last prep for the 2011 Kentucky Derby did not look the part of being an invincible running machine. Most of the talk up in the Manhattan Terrace was "how good is this horse" and "the only hard test for this will be the Belmont Stakes". It appears now that this horse is just as good as his competition and the hard test for this horse will probably be his subsequent starts against the rest of his generation.

Great horses lose, Native Dancer lost his Derby by a decreasing margin and Seattle Slew was defeated after a superb effort in the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup. A great horse may lose, but most of the time they still hold that look that they were still much the best in defeat. The way Uncle Mo lost did not give that impression at all, he got to an early lead where John Velazquez controlled the early tempo and saw his margin in front diminish steadily through the duration of the stretch run.

The last time a juvenile champion ran in the Wood Memorial was 2008, War Pass was coming off of a poor effort in his seasonal debut in March at the Tampa Bay Derby. He led the pack until inside the eighth pole only to succumb to Tale of Ekati. The parallels between War Pass and Uncle Mo have been uncanny as well. Both ran big races in the Champagne and Juvenile, both waited until March for their first start of the year, and both looked underwhelming in those starts.

Usually the case with these types of horses is they are checked on by a veterinarian or go through x-rays and find something wrong or amiss. They are then quickly retired and there is a stud deal quickly reached. It is cynical, but that seems to happen more often than not. The next four weeks have gotten a little bit more interesting with the recent downfall of the divisional champion.

Scenes from the Big A: The Wood Memorial

The main event of the spring Aqueduct meet is the Wood Memorial, this year the storyline was that this was the prep for the probable Derby favorite Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo went from probable favorite to one of many contenders for sought after prize in about one minute and fifty one seconds.






NYRA or the concession company that works with NYRA had a drink special that was called the Uncle Mojito, more than likely this will be the only time you see this drink special offered after today's performance.



With a an upset like this you figure some fans would take this loss a bit harder than others based on their financial stake in the outcome or other reasons than that. Apparently one fan had a lot riding on Uncle Mo on Saturday.

Aqueduct Saturday Stakes Racing Preview

This weekend marks two milestones in the year that signify that spring is here, Keeneland runs its April meet loaded with stakes action and the return of grade one racing to New York. Keeneland has gone from a massive speed favoring dirt surface and closer friendly turf course to a racecourse with a pair of surfaces that tend to lean towards horses that have closer tendencies. That being said, it does make handicapping that meet easier, just avoid 90% of the card and play the featured race of the day.

Comely Stakes

This race was moved from a week past the Wood Memorial to the day of the Wood. Ruffian and a few other Hall of Fame fillies have won this race. It is now a grade three that annually features a variation of Florida shippers that have had minor stakes or allowance victories before shipping up and the grizzled runners that have wintered in New York.

Royal Sighting broke her maiden by twelve last out and is immediately stepped into a stakes race. This horse had an unusual path to the winners’ circle in her most recent start. Patrick Kelly’s horses usually drop back early and make a sustained bid in the later stages of the race, Evening Attire did this and so did Naughty New Yorker. Royal Sighting went immediately to the lead and never looked back, in previous starts she was fifth or further back in the early stages before trying to make a run.

Bay Shore Stakes

This race used to be a stepping stone towards the Wood Memorial. Secretariat won this race in his three year old debut and then went on to the Gotham and the Wood Memorial before Triple Crown immortality. Other notable winners of this event are Lost in the Fog, Gulch, Bold Forbes, and Damascus. That is quite a roll call for a race that is a purse downgrade from being a listed stakes race.

J J’s Lucky Train tried his luck at the two turn stakes races at Aqueduct in January and February with a pair of second place finishes. He won a seven furlong race at Laurel on February 26th where he dueled all the whole way with Bandbox, who went on to win the Miracle Wood Stakes in March at Laurel.

Steve Assmussen won this race with J Be K in 2008 after a poor showing at Fair Grounds. This year Justin Phillip is Assmussen’s entry and he had a weak showing in two stakes down in the bayou. Justin Phillip is going to have to be at his best to win from the rail with other speeds lined up outside of him though.

Carter Handicap

The first half of the Repole double is entered here with Calibrachoa, I set the over/under on that double at six dollars on a two dollar wager. Have You Ever is once again entered as a rabbit to ensure a quick pace for his stable-mate. Apriority probably will take a lot of action here as well, he had a monster race last out running three seconds faster than the average time for the distance. Morning Line has had some tough luck in recent starts with second place finishes in the Donn Handicap and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after doing much of the grunt work on the front end. From the looks of it, this race will have a swift early pace.

Wood Memorial


Uncle Mo will probably go off 1/9 here. In terms of value when betting on favorites, there is next to none. With a horse like Uncle Mo, getting 3/5 would be a mixed blessing. Getting sixty cents on the dollar on a horse that usually goes off insanely short and has yet to taste defeat means that you are getting a slight edge on the pari-mutuel competition. On the negative side it also could be a foreboding sign of a negative outcome, so you see why betting favorites is a difficult proposition.

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!

After Uncle Mo’s rousing comeback to the races this last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, Repole Stable and the soft serve ice cream giant Mr. Softee have reached an agreement to do a cross promotion in the upcoming months. Much like the one that IEAH Stable and UPS had during Big Brown’s vaunted attempt at the elusive Triple Crown. When Mr. Softee representatives were reached for comment they said, ”We are very proud of signing an agreement with a group of sports owners that exemplify a great soft schedule en route to a big event, much like our great soft serve frozen treats.”

Team Repole's meeting with the Mr. Softee people. Not pitcured, a man with an ice cream cone for a head.

Here at Powercap, we pride ourselves on getting the inside scoop on these sorts of stories and we have an early draft design of the Uncle Mo Mr. Softee truck.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two

The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.

1. Uncle Mo

The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.

2. To Honor and Serve

The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.

3. Dialed In

There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?

4. Mucho Macho Man

An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.

5. The Factor

One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.

Kentucky Derby Failure Five

Almost every racing website has a columnist or two that ranks the Derby hopefuls leading up to the event. This is our attempt to capitalize on the trend not by saying the ranked horses are the best of the group, but by saying they will somehow defect out of the Kentucky Derby or fall short of expectations.

1. Uncle Mo

The champion juvenile and winter book favorite for the big race. Pletcher is waiting until March to start this one in the Tampa Bay Derby, the last two year old champ to do that was War Pass. There are other parallels with War Pass and Uncle Mo as well, both completed the Champagne-Juvenile sweep and both seem to have the same career trajectory. War Pass was lightly raced at two with only four starts on his record and Uncle Mo went to post three times last year. More good news for Uncle Mo’s backers too, the last three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners did not make it to the Derby.

2. To Honor and Serve

The Remsen to Kentucky path has not been one of success since Thunder Gulch pulled off the trick in 1994. Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor, and Buddy’s Saint went into their three year old campaigns as hot horses for the Derby only to be sidelined before the main event took place. The runner-up in the Remsen, Mucho Macho Man returned to service in the Holy Bull only to gets his doors blown off by Dialed In as well.

3. Boys At Tosconova

This horse was intended to make his debut this weekend in the Holy Bull, but that was called off because Dutrow did not like how his horse looked going into the race. Probably a wise move on the part of Dutrow, not a good sign for a three year old early in the season though. The pedigree on this one seems to be a bit of a wash, Officer is the sire which probably means that nine furlongs is his limit and Coronado’s Quest is on the dam’s side of the pedigree, which is a decent stamina influence. This horse is a question mark with four legs. Also of note on this horse:


At Horse Racing Nation they are advertising Uncle Mo merchandise on the page of Boys At Toscanova, not a lot of respect being doled out for this horse.

4. Dialed In

A Kentucky Derby prep season without Zito is something that doesn’t happen often. His whole stable is centered on having horses entered in the three year old classics and when that doesn’t happen his year is kind of shot. Had fun losing money on Ice Box in the Derby and Belmont last year? Well this is your chance to get more of the same punishment, this horse has the same type of running style as Ice Box and got a win earlier in the season at Gulfstream than Ice Box did. Andrew Beyer also penned that if this horse won the Holy Bull that it would make the prep season much more interesting. Beyer was right on something, that may be a sign of the apocalypse.

5. Tapizar

Not only included here to defeat all claims of having an east coast bias, but also because this is the first three year old in a long time that I think may turn into something special. Twice now he has outrun other stakes horses on final time, on November 27 his maiden victory was faster than the two mile and a sixteenth stakes races that took place and his win last out was faster than a stakes race for four year olds on the same day.

So you may be asking me why is he on a list filled with horses that you think may be flops and fizzle out of the picture for the Kentucky Derby? Because the last horse I had this type of notion on was Repent, he got injured after finishing second to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby and lost subsequent starts in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.