This is one of the big weekends with the Illinois Derby, The Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. We are four weeks out from the First Saturday in May and the most exciting sports event in North America.
Santa Anita Derby Features the rematch of Colonel John and El Gato Malo with a supporting cast of hopefuls. The most viable price looks like Yankee Bravo who ran a credible race in the LA Derby. His deep closing style has been winning over the surface and he should have no issues with being wide.
The Wood Memorial is a good betting race as the 6-5 chalk War Pass looks vulnerable. As a handicapper you have to find reasons to beat chalk and the massive clunker that War Pass ran last out is reason enough to toss him at 4-5. Court Vision looks like a viable candidate to power past late as he is 2nd off the layoff and is proven over the distance and surface. The rain has been much lighter than forecasted over the last 24 hours never increasing in intensity past light rain and it has been mostly mist. Light rain is forecasted to end at 10am with cloudy conditions all day. The track should be good to fast.
Denis Of Cork is favored to Win the Illinois Derby.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label War pass. Show all posts
Showing posts with label War pass. Show all posts
04 April 2008
16 March 2008
If Spitzer Played Horses He Still Would Be In Office
Obnoxious people not only make bad friends, but they can be a danger to their friends and family. These people need to bring humility and modesty into their lives. Can one think of an activity that has more humbling effects than wagering on horse races? Those with obnoxious, egotistical personalities should be prescribed a steady diet of playing the ponies. Then after a few treatments of lost photo finishes, stewards DQ's and complete non-efforts of odds on picks, the ego-maniac will be a changed person. These self centered people under the horseplayer treatment will slowly mature into more caring friends, awash in post wager despair they will become comforters who can empathize with the troubles of others while thinking beyond the me, myself and I. Racing is a game where self centered over-confidence is quickly dealt with. Do you know someone that thinks they are gods gift to the rest of us? Make a date with them to spend an afternoon at your local OTB or racetrack. Watch their picks run up the track and their bloated egos get stomped like a cockroach caught wandering on the stage of a live performance of riverdance. It could be the best thing you ever did for them.
How about those confident players that wagered hundreds of thousands of dollars that War pass would run third today in the Tampa Bay Derby? Some fool blogger even proclaimed that the Tampa Bay Derby would be a walkover and perhaps Zito should seek out a stiffer test for his champion charge. War Pass competing in the Tampa Bay derby was far removed from the certainty of a rocket scientist passing a 2nd grade arithmetic quiz. What these people missed was that the Tampa Bay Derby was War Pass' first race on a fast track going two turns, his first race over the deep Tampa Bay surface and that he was not feeling well this week with a cold. Not only did War Pass answer one plus one incorrectly on his 2nd grade quiz, but he managed to answer all the questions wrong while finishing last. Over-confidence was vanquished and a large mass of humbleness filled the vacuum for all those that singled him, bridge jumped him and proclaimed him a mortal lock.
How about the famous ego-maniac Spitzer. A man so full of himself that he signed strong anti prostitution legislation a few months ago while being a noted connoisseur of the oldest profession himself. A case of malignant chutzpah so acute that it brought a family, and entire state government to a screeching halt. Spitzer would have found a better fate if he had been playing the horses instead of trying to prosecute its workers. If anybody needed the therapeutic, ego reducing effects of horseplaying it was Spitzer. "Yo Silda War Pass was 2YO champ, won his last race in hand and is lone speed, watch the steam roller bet $4.3K on the nose with $80K to show". Just like that the ego-maniac governor could have been brought back to earth and all issues associated with his delusional superiority complex would have been neutralized. The sixty nine percent of New York voters that checked Spitzer would not look like complete fools and those that donated to his campaign would not be left with out a fixer. Help is available for ego-maniacs if someone will dare to care.
How about those confident players that wagered hundreds of thousands of dollars that War pass would run third today in the Tampa Bay Derby? Some fool blogger even proclaimed that the Tampa Bay Derby would be a walkover and perhaps Zito should seek out a stiffer test for his champion charge. War Pass competing in the Tampa Bay derby was far removed from the certainty of a rocket scientist passing a 2nd grade arithmetic quiz. What these people missed was that the Tampa Bay Derby was War Pass' first race on a fast track going two turns, his first race over the deep Tampa Bay surface and that he was not feeling well this week with a cold. Not only did War Pass answer one plus one incorrectly on his 2nd grade quiz, but he managed to answer all the questions wrong while finishing last. Over-confidence was vanquished and a large mass of humbleness filled the vacuum for all those that singled him, bridge jumped him and proclaimed him a mortal lock.
How about the famous ego-maniac Spitzer. A man so full of himself that he signed strong anti prostitution legislation a few months ago while being a noted connoisseur of the oldest profession himself. A case of malignant chutzpah so acute that it brought a family, and entire state government to a screeching halt. Spitzer would have found a better fate if he had been playing the horses instead of trying to prosecute its workers. If anybody needed the therapeutic, ego reducing effects of horseplaying it was Spitzer. "Yo Silda War Pass was 2YO champ, won his last race in hand and is lone speed, watch the steam roller bet $4.3K on the nose with $80K to show". Just like that the ego-maniac governor could have been brought back to earth and all issues associated with his delusional superiority complex would have been neutralized. The sixty nine percent of New York voters that checked Spitzer would not look like complete fools and those that donated to his campaign would not be left with out a fixer. Help is available for ego-maniacs if someone will dare to care.
14 March 2008
Weekend Derby Prep Action
The Tampa Bay Derby appears to be a near walkover for War Pass. Lone Speed, clear class of the race, and prime second off the layoff form. Nothing is ever easy in this game and the odds on War Pass will be shorter than a quarter horse in a three mile steeplechase. This race is clearly for viewing purposes and I will be rooting for War Pass to win by a pole and set a new track record. Maybe this undefeated champion can get some much needed positive buzz momentum rolling towards the triple crown.
The Rebel provides more intrigue. The favorite is New York Bred Z Fortune. He has the mis- z fortune of drawing the far outside post in a two turn race. Willing to take a shot against Z first time shipping into Oaklawn at a short price. The pace scenario on paper is light on speed and this favors #4 Sacred Journey. Sacred Journey seems to hold all of the trump pace cards. If he can get the distance he should get clear and wire this field. Consider that Sacred Journey is second time stretching out while second time over the surface, both favorable considerations. Sacred Journey has the speed and credentials to cross the wire first in the Rebel. Give him a look in the paddock, if Sacred Journey is composed I suggest a wager on the nose.
The Rebel provides more intrigue. The favorite is New York Bred Z Fortune. He has the mis- z fortune of drawing the far outside post in a two turn race. Willing to take a shot against Z first time shipping into Oaklawn at a short price. The pace scenario on paper is light on speed and this favors #4 Sacred Journey. Sacred Journey seems to hold all of the trump pace cards. If he can get the distance he should get clear and wire this field. Consider that Sacred Journey is second time stretching out while second time over the surface, both favorable considerations. Sacred Journey has the speed and credentials to cross the wire first in the Rebel. Give him a look in the paddock, if Sacred Journey is composed I suggest a wager on the nose.
13 March 2008
War Pass needs a test
War pass is undefeated and untested. Hard to imagine him finding a test in the Tampa Bay Derby. He will face Big Truck and Atoned off a four month layoff. Perhaps some local upstarts will join the fray as race filler. Looks like the sporting triple crown trainers ducked this $300K race. What is on tap is a virtual walkover and a dream set up for a dominant front runner like War Pass. Somewhere before the first Saturday in May it would be beneficial if this colt was hooked and his gameness received a stern test. No test on Saturday.
27 February 2008
2005 Bellamy Road allowace reminds us of War Pass
Here is a blast from the past, a 2005 romping allowance win by Bellamy Road. This lead to Bellamy Road romping in the Wood and Derby favoritism. Fast forward to 2008 and we have the handy War Pass allowance win from the other day, same barn, same run style and another possible derby favorite. Can history be at the end of the War Pass trail and not the injuries and failure of Bellamy Road? Did Zito learn from his experience with Bellamy Road? Is War Pass more seasoned and ready to make history?
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