Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

25 November 2008

Tale Of Two Races

Here we have two races, the same distance and it the same track both races effected by the same forces of too much racing but the opposite end of that forces spectrum. First we have Aqueduct race 7 19NOV08 and the Fall Highweight Handicap. The former was a race that was gutted by scratches and latter is a race that has been supplemented by entries way beyond the $100K purse.

A good example of what "too many tracks with slot inflated purses " can do is Aqueduct race 7 19NOV. Here was a really nice starter allowance with nine horses entered. Almost every horse was a hard knocking warrior, just check out the amount of wins in the field and how often they win. I was so exciting to watch this race looking at the PP's the day before but instead of a great race the public got a 4 horse field because 5 of the horses scratched and will likely run in an easier spot at a slot track like Philly. When widely available slot purses enhancements ruin racs like this the game in no longer a sport or a product it is a welfare dole. There are too many races available for these horses and too much racing dilutes the quality of the product. Failed racetracks propped up by slot revenues weaken the game and shorten fields, over saturating the market with race after race day after day. It is sad to see a races at tracks like Presque Isle have slot enhanced purses of $50K and pick threes with $3k handle.

Then we have the Fall High weight Handicap. This was a graded race just a few years ago but was downgraded due allowance, Statebred or claiming horses winning the race year after year. Who really wants their horse to carry 140lbs anyway? This year it drew an outstanding field, it may even be a be compared to the GI Vosburgh from the Belmont meet. Why is it so strong? The main reason this race came up aces is the struggles of Maryland. Many of these horses would have run the in the Grade I DeFrancis Dash but due to that races demise the Highweight has drawn an outstanding field, there are three graded winners in the race even though the race is not graded. Here is an example of how a right sized racing industry will grow stronger, better horses running in interesting races with wagering surging.

With slots propping up New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, West Virgina and soon Maryland/New York only more racing will be carded. It is too much racing and this only continues due to subsidies from slots. This is a poison for the game. While some look at slot money as a savior the truth is that it is the poison that is ruining the product and driving the game into ruin. Tracks are ready to fail, if they were only allowed to fail the racing in the strong jurisdictions like New York, Kentucky and California would flourish. The scarcity of racing would make it interesting to the masses once again. In Hong Kong they only allow Sha-Tin to run and it handles over $60 billion a year. If we only had one or two tracks on the east coast handle would balloon, the races would be awesome, large fields of competitive horses. Allow the market to work and the great game of racing will naturally flourish.

22 November 2008

Play Of The Day

Aqueduct Race 3

Last out Trust Nobody inherited the short end of the stick with a bum pace scenario and had to run down a power 6-5 lone speed chalk, no wonder why he has trust issues. He should get a much better deal today with a nice stalking outside post and a robust pace to run at. I would trust Trust Nobody to win this race.

Win #11 Trust Nobody

55 8-8-9
strike rate 14%
cumulative return $94.20
$2 ROI $1.74

12 November 2008

Play Of The Day

Aqueduct race 8

We cling to the last of the turf stakes action as we delve further into frigid Aqueduct nuclear winter.
From south of here Jonathan Sheppard ships in Royal Pleasure who is a stakes winner out of town. Slips into the condition by not winning a graded/group stakes. Looks somewhat fresh and cuts back in distance from a 10 furlong grade one race. Primed to run them all down here.

win #4 Royal Pleasure

53 8-8-9
strike rate 14%
cumulative return $94.20
$2 ROI $1.76

08 November 2008

Play Of The Day

Aqueduct Race 9

More Than A Reason squeezes into this condition as a three year old. While most of the field has 2 wins this colt has 5 wins. 4 for 4 over a wet track and it will be wetter than a dip in the pool today. 15-1 morning line is a dream but hoping for at least 5-1 for a win bet.

Win #6 More Than A Reason

PowerCap Stats.

52 8-8-9
strike rate 15%
cumulative return $94.20
$2 ROI $1.81

05 November 2008

Dog Racing Banned In Mass

A ballot measure passed in Massachusetts banning hound racing. Thoroughbreds will be on their hit list next. (check out the comments) In their eyes there is too much abuse in racing and banning it will make them feel really good about themselves. If there was a vote about thoroughbred racing in any of the liberal states along the coast it is a possibility that the flats could be shut down in places like Boston or Delaware. A government authority with a racino that wants to eliminate an unprofitable horseracing operation could manipulate this sentiment to its favor. While some would view the shuttering of Suffolk downs or Belmont Park as an injustice others will feel really good about it. Yet for those in power it will open up the door for the government to step in and fill yet another void.

To the common liberal type lacking experience in hard work or adversity racing is all about greed and fat cats. The complex racing traditions, hundreds of years in age and the hard work associated with racing are completely foreign concepts to most of these people. What they know is Barbaro, Eight Belles and whatever soundbite that reaches them through the media. The trainers, grooms and hardworking people working in racing are isolated from much of the population. The many groups and caring owners that save and care for retired racehorses are not known. The subject of horseracing was not covered at tennis lessons, MTV at indy rock concerts or in college. Racing fell out of the mainstream sports universe when TV favorable sports like football began to dominate at the down of the TV age. Racing needs to aquire political correctness in today's world.

The only thing many people know about racing is the cruelty of the whip and the troubling breakdowns. Unlike an organic frozen dinner horse racing makes them feel really bad about themselves. Horses are hurt, people that could take a nice job like them in a climate controlled environment are forced to work really hard and risk life and limb. The hard work associated with racing, the mucking of stalls, the smell of horse manure and the inserting of thermometers in a horses anus at 4am is completely foreign to these people who have been protected from this type of hard work. Racing has not been a part of most peoples lives in places like Boston or Manhattan where the life cycle starts with mommy and daddy protecting them and moves on to the carefree joys of college and then the office job making $100K+. This makes racing a target as it is a working class sub-culture which does does not fit into the modern culture of the crusading, do-gooder liberal. The fate of dog racing in Mass could be the fate fo racing as well.

The handicapping/wagering part of horseracing is really hard for most people to fathom. Handicapping horse racing is a sub-culture that is looked down upon in places like Manhattan or Boston. The fact that wagering is a game of skill where money moves from the losers to to the experienced well financed sharpies is an anti-liberal concept. Wealth re-distribution is not supposed to work like this. In their minds racing has to go and the cruelty and degenerate wagering has to go. In states from Massachusetts south to New York and in places like Oregon or California a horse racing ban is a reality in the next eight years if it could make to a ballot issue.

While a ban on racing would decimate tax revenues initially it could open the door for greater government control of wagering dollars. The profitable casinos are already in place at many racetracks. The racino is like the old automat restaurant opening up a McDonalds right inside of it's main location. When 95% of your customers are now eating Big Macs why continue subsidizing the part of your business where people have to pull a soggy tuna melt out of a dirty plastic machine. It would be very easy to eliminate the racetracks attached to these government controlled tax machine racinos. Public sentiment could easily be manipulated to close a track like Philadelphia Park and expand the profitable casino attached to it.

As a substitute for the lost racing tax money collected from horseplayers the Ministry Of Entertainment could program and computerize racing. Instead of employing grooms to rub horses and exercise riders to risk their lives working horses the game will become a computerized simulation of what it once was. Government has expanded like this in the past annexing the numbers game from independent civilian operators and calling it lotto. With racing banned it could become a government controlled an on-line game with no actual horse, trainers or grooms. These simulations are already available. Wagering will be run by the ministry of entertainment and taxed at 50% like other government parasite games like lotto. The proceeds will be split between parasitic programs with the rest being annexed by those in the party elite. This could happen in 1984 2014 or 2024.

Banning horse racing is a very real possibility in the next decade in places like Boston or Delaware. The sad part is that the trill of a stretch duel or the gameness of a horse like Holy Bull would be snuffed out for future generations. The beauty grace and knowledge gained from working with these magnificent creatures would be terminated.

Many people feel that they are just smarter than you and dictating what is best for everyone makes them feel really good about themselves. The 72 year old history of dog racing in New England is soon to be history. What will happen to those dogs? Who knows what will happen to those dogs but the fact that tens of thousands of Massachusetts voters feel like they did a good thing by pushing a button. For these people banning dog racing requires no effort but it provided lots of good feelings about themselves. It is only a matter of time before horse racing will come under attack from these do-gooders. It is imperative that horseracing aligns its humane ducks in a row. It is only a matter of time before racing is attacked from the left.