Are Synthetic Surfaces Weeding Out The Derby Speed?

Many times the Kentucky Derby has been what I call a "chaos race". Start with a large field then add in an abundance of speed horses and need the lead colts with no hope whatsoever and you have something hot and sultry breaking out on the lead. These heated speed duels on the lead neutralize the quality speed horses, and set the race up for deep closers. Monarchos is a great example and well as Giacomo in 2005. This year is setting up to be a walk in the park on the lead. Looking at the top 20 graded earning list it seems the preponderance of synthetic prep races have stopped the cheap speed horses before they crossed the velvet ropes into the entry box. Almost every horse to emerge from the Kentucky or California preps are devoid of speed. Those lucky enough to prep and possess speed have a marked advantage over their synthetic raced competition.

We can bemoan the effect of synthetic surfaces on racing or we can accept it and profit from it. Smart money chooses to accept the present. In past years California and Keeneland produced very fast colts for the derby, this is not the case this year. There is no Sinister Minister or Brancusi to overheat a speed duel. This year the California preps have yielded a graduating class permeated by closers or horses with a turf pedigree.


Pioneer Of The Nile, the leading candidate from California was judged a turf horse by his former conditioner Bill Mott. Mott started this colt on the turf and he had a successful two year old campaign over the weeds. For his three year old campaign he was sent to Baffert specifically to take advantage of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Now in the biggest race of the year the Empire Maker colt has to cede all advantage and try something that he was deemed not to be his forte. While he and the dozen or so like him are spinning their wheels on the foreign surface they are going to have to deal with dirt kickback. Add in a tactical disadvantage we have a stacked deck against the synthetic derby prep graduates.

The Derby may have produced a "who's who" of Chefs De Race but this years Kentucky based preps (Lanes End, Bluegrass, Lex) have a produced a "who the heck is that" list of Derby candidates. These races over the polytrack at Turfway and Keeneland have produced confounding longshot victories and every colt considered for the Derby out of these races is devoid of speed. The perfect scenario for a wire to wire victory in the Kentucky derby is building.

The horses that stand to benefit are Quality Road, Papa Clem, Friesian Fire and I Want Revenge. This becomes a case of the rich get richer as all four have class and speed. Now they have a tactical advantage as well. All four horses have shown speed along with a rating gear which should further ice any possible speed duel. The only need the lead type even being considered is Todd Pletcher's Join In The Dance.

Quality Road who figures to be the speed of the speed may just benefit the most from the likely pace scenario. Quality Road was very impressive winning the Fountain Of Youth. In the FOY Quality Road outlasted three other quality speed sprinters and drew off to win for fun. On paper the FOY was a speed chaos race. Then Quality Road stretched out and turned back the highly touted and heavily bet Dunkirk in the Florida Derby after being passed at the top of the lane, showing class and gameness. All indicaters except that quarter crack are pointing to Quality Road.

Dunkirk Has A Stall In The Derby

The lightly raced but heavily priced Dunkirk will have a stall in the derby if he is fit and able. With three horses ahead of him on the active graded stakes earnings list off the derby trail (Stardom Bound, Big Drama, Capt Candy Man Can) he sits at number 18 on the list(top 20 make it). The European win in your win entrant Mafaaz performed poorly at Keeneland so the Churchill European marketing attempt will not yield a starter this year. Square Eddie will start this week in the Lexington off a three month injury layoff and may be rushed into the derby. If Eddie defects that opens even more cushion to ensure that Dunkirk to get in. For procrastinators and the desperate there are two more opportunities for graded stakes earnings post Lexington; at Aqueduct there is The Withers GIII and the recently upgraded Derby Trial GIII at Churchill. The Withers will not produce a Derby entrant while the Derby Trial has produced a Derby entry every few years.

Kentucky Derby Futures Round-Up

With less than four weeks to the Kentucky Derby bettors are solidifying opinions. It is becoming more and more clear that I Want Revenge is going to be the clear favorite as we move closer to the race. As more people watch the Wood and listen to Durkin's hysterics I Want Revenge is going to start to build hype. The current Kentucky Derby betting has I Want Revenge listed at 7-2. With the second choice Quality Road not able to train due to a quarter crack it seems like I Want Revenge has opened up daylight on his competition. Quality Road is questionable just to be in the gate, 5-1 on him to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby is a sucker bet. The co-third choice is the lightly raced Dunkirk at 6-1 who was easily turned back by Quality Road. Dunkirk lacks seasoning and is another who is questionable to be in the gate due to a lack of earnings. With new defections showing up by the day Dunkirk does figure to sneak in the race. The other third choice is Friesen Fire who won the Louisiana Derby by a pole, but that was on slop which typically produces disingenuous win margins. Freisen Fire's seven week gap in races is bewildering to me so 6-1 does not interest me at all. The fifth choice at 7-1 is Pioneer Of The Nile who is a turf horse. Without synthetic surfaces this horses would not even be on this list. 7-1 on the Zayat stable runner is another sucker bet. Out of all the short price type horses I Want Revenge Stands Tall, 7-2 is not a bad proposition and you will surely be looking at a shorter price on derby day.

At the other end of the odds spectrum an intriguing longshot is Papa Clem. This colt was stuck out in Wally Wubber World California where his first four races were on all-weather surfaces. He ran very gamely in California and displayed a run style that may translate better to a dirt surface. Papa Clem took his shot on dirt in the sloppy Louisiana Derby and ran okay first time while on a completely foreign surface. He will run in the Arkansas Derby and I suspect he will give a good account of himself there. If you want to grab some value the current 40-1 on Papa Clem is appetizing. His price may drop dramatically after Saturday if he wins or places like I suspect at Oaklawn.

Wood Memorial Trip Report

Yet another great day at the Big-A. While others choose to waste hundreds of dollars to go to taxpayer park A & B($1.8 Billion in public debt)the smart discretionary money was at the Big-A. Free to admission, free parking and free to scream your lungs off. The weather was a brisk 55F and the forecast winds gusting to 35 knots out of the southwest were blocked by the massive grandstand. The track was very fair to closers and speed, so perhaps Todd Pletcher must be kicking himself for not entering Dunkirk in the Wood who likely could have given a favorable account of himself on a fair surface.

The crowd was boisterous at the Big-A. There were random chats of Tala-mo throughout the day from the third floor grandstand. One side of the grandstand would randomly and loudly chant "tala!" and the other side would return chant "mo!". This went on for most of the day and foreshadowed the Wood heroics. No PA system required to tell the fans what to do as the life was bubbling out of them, no PA system puppet strings required. For a modest sized crowd it was loud and the stakes winners all received rounds of applause when they returned to be unsaddled. It was sort of like a mini-Belmont Stakes day in an edgy environment.


It was was a very interesting card and the track was fair with speed, stalkers or closers all claiming wins on the day. Almost every year a obscene longshot wins one of the undercard races (2005 Livelyupyourself 48-1, etc etc) and this year that tradition was upheld by All Bets Off at 20-1 in race 2. Race 6 winner Montecore is a horse to watch as he won with complete ease. The winner of the Bay Shore Capt Candyman Can looked tremendous in the paddock and ran to his looks. Giant Moon continued his successful return to the races with improving form third off the layoff. He claimed the Excelsior Handicap while pressing a slow pace, his 13-1 price spiced up the exotic vertical wagers surrounding the Wood Memorial. A game Kodiak Kowboy gallantly ran down Fabulous Strike to annex the Grade I Carter, making it graded stakes wins at all three NYRA tracks and wins in over the last three seasons.


The Wood Memorial was touted as I Want Revenge and Imperial Council versus the rest. Only these two were bet with the rest of the horses cold on the board. After looking closer at the race I picked up a few solid knocks on Imperial Council. A generous poster on paceadvanatge.com pointed out that Imperial Council's action was paddle wheel-like. After watching a few head-on replays of Imperial Council's races I agreed, horses with inefficient action tire going long. Imperial Council was a power toss. When Imperial Council made a complete mess of the paddock I felt confident that he would be off the board and I was able to really get involved in the horizontal wagers. With two power opinions in the Wood, (I Want Revenge was a lock / Imperial Council would be off the board) I was able to obliterate the race vertically and horizontally. (sorry for the redboard) Imperial Council's future is in running at sprint distances. His inefficient action will keep him at distances less than 8 furlongs. As Soon as Shug figures this out the better. For my sake I hope he runs long all year.









Imperial Council's Antics

As anyone can see I Want Revenge was very impressive. He had to overcome breaking five lengths behind the field, running into a trap, running in to a jackpot, he got knocked sideways and had to split horses on two occasions. Even with all these obstacles blocking his access tot he wire he won clear as much the best. I Want Revenge's Wood trip is so eventful that you have to wonder if it took something out of him. My gut says he will be okay. Previous class horses to have nightmares trips like this were Invasor in the 2007 Donn, and Alfeet Alex in the 2005 Derby and Preakness. Both horses came back to win their next starts. Class horses and class people thrive on adversity.









I Want Revenge a picture of composure in the post parade









A poor break for I Want Revenge









Jackpot city for I Want Revenge









I Want Revenge powers through the wall of horses









I Want Revenge clear at the wire









A triumphant return for the most valiant of winners

All pics courtesy of Keith & Tara

Don't Make It Easier For Horses Like Dunkirk To Stay In The Barn

With only three starts on his record there are legions of people arguing that Churchill should do something to ensure horses like Dunkirk can have access to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. These people are flat out wrong, one hit wonders like Dunkirk should be excluded from the Derby if they do not have the requisite graded earnings, the conditioning or the record of success. Racing needs horses to race, not stay in the barn.

Dunkirk and his possible exclusion from the derby is often linked to Mafaaz. Mafaaz won the Kempton challenge and while he looks overmatched in the derby some argue and he will exclude a live contender. Another frequent complaint is the pair of Godolphin horses who will likely enter the Kentucky derby who won their owners money in Dubai. This international presence in America's most famous race is great for the game. Horses like Mafaaz, Desert Party and Regal Ransom provide intrigue and provide access to overseas growth markets. Horses like Dunkirk with their lack of races and injury prone nature are a cancer on the game.


One of the chief things that plagues racing is horses like Dunkirk. We have graded stakes horses that do not race, they stay in the barn and only come out for an afternoon run once in a while when they are in absolutely pristine form. This is terrible for the game and robs the game of intrigue and the ability to follow horses. Those in charge should do nothing to accommodate horses that face the consequences of a lack of racing. Typically a horse can stay in the barn with complete impunity. The Kentucky Derby is one the rare situations where a horse like Dunkirk's connections are punished for the lack of racing, let the punishment stand if it holds.

Look at horses like Ghostzapper from 2004 and his brilliant four race campaign. Ghostzapper did nothing in the afternoon from September 2003 to July 2004 and then raced every 6 weeks or so in short fields up until his breeders cup classic win at Lone Star. While he may of been brilliant in those four races it was not exactly conducive to building a sports fan base. Four race campaigns disengage the public from big time stakes races and should be discouraged whenever possible. The graded stakes earning list for the derby is one of those few instances.


Who can forget Easy Goer's 1989 three year old campaign? 11 races, 3 wins over older routers in a grade I and a total of 8 graded wins. Despite his extraordinary season Easy Goer lost the BC classic to a horse that was laid up for most of the summer while Easy Goer won Grade I after Grade I. Ever since that race of decade in the 89' BC classic horses have been managed more judiciously, races leading up to the breeders cup have been shortened and horses have followed the example of Sunday Silence taking the summer off rather than the complete campaign of Easy Goer. While it may be good for the connections to pick conservative spots like this, it is terrible for the game.

While the Kempton challenge could be considered a gimmick, it is an attempt to build interest in the Kentucky Derby. There is a huge untapped international market and the presence of this one horse could do wonders for increasing the interest in the derby and American racing in general. People in London bookie shops will have a greater interest in the Kentucky Derby and maybe even American casual fans will be intrigued by a foreign dark horse. The masses need big and easy story lines to follow, something that they can grab and run with. Will Mafaaz keep out Dunkirk? I don't think he will but if he does it will send the message that your big horses need to race.

A horse like Dunkirk if he was to succeed in the derby would set a precedent where many trainers would try to go into the triple crown off of one prep race. Look at the success of the ill fated Barbaro. At the time going into the derby on five weeks rest was taboo, but Barbaro's success has emboldened trainers like Larry Jones to take Friesian Fire off a 7 week rest into the derby this year. A derby success by Dunkirk would lead to a copy-cat horses in later years that race with even less bottom conditioning. What happens to horses with a lack of a bottom? They get injured and they are whisked away as soon as we begin to admire them.


The current system of graded stakes earnings favors horses that have been racing and earning over a period of time. This is a solid system. It is not a perfect system and surely anomalies like the $1 million Delta Jackpot Skew the graded earnings list but at least horses that race are favored and not one hit wonders.

Grade I Play Of The Day 28MAR09

Gulfstream Race 10 Florida Derby

There are umpteen different analysis versions available for this race. If they don't tell you that Quality Road lays over this field they are not looking at this race properly or they have found themselves filling in the unfortunate role of pari-mutuel patsy. Some are even saying that two or three horses in this race are closely matched. Not only should these cappers not be betting this race but they should head to the DMV for an eye exam. The field may be closely matched in the paddock but at the wire Quality Road is going to be all alone. Adding to the appeal Quality Road is the morning line second choice. With hype horse Dunkirk sure to take win money like a pari-mutuel black hole you may even see 9-5 on Quality Road. When you go to the windows tell em Powercapper sent you and make a stout bet on Quality Road. If you have been infected with some sort of greed-like affliction call out an exacta with Dunkirk tossed from both slots with Q.R. keyed up top to placate your greedy tendencies.

Win #2 Q.R.

Quality Stats


69 15-9-10
strike rate 22%
cumulative return $146.90
$2 ROI $2.13