The focus shifts out west to Keeneland and Santa Anita this week. Both tracks have great cards for Saturday while New York racing devolves into something only the most hardened of degenerates could withstand. In the Shadwell Mile Justenuffhumor looks like the best miler on this side of the Atlantic and be anxoius to see him win his first GI. However the real sultry action is at Santa Anita this weekend.
In the Del Mar Mile we have the first and second choice both front end runners. The favorite is Cowboy Cal. His gambit is running on the front end. The second choice also likes to run on the front end; that horse Monterey Jazz is a "need the lead" type of runner. With two of the most powerful horses dueling on the front end perhaps someone from the back of the back could take advantage a favorable pace scenario. A logical winner is Whatsthescript with Allicansayiswow providing longshot appeal. I like the sequence of races here and will start a pick three covering Skyrush, Global Hunter, Monterey Jazz, Allicansayiswow, Cowboy Cal and Whatsthescript.
Mine That Bird looked absolutely over the top in a very disappointing West Virgina derby run. He looks like he has no shot whatsoever in the Goodwood Stakes GI. The DRF even picked him to win which should be good for some sucker money in the wagering. Since the derby winner will be one of the favorites the Goodwood becomes a tremendous wagering opportunity. The logical one looks like Colonel John but I will spread a few deep in pick 3s covering Parading, Gitano Hernando, Richard's Kid, Monzante along with the Colonel. With Mine That Bird sure to be off the board this is a good race to play exactas and trifectas.
The last leg of the pick 3 is the Lady's Secret GI. This race will anchor my pick 3 play. While Zenatta has assembled an undefeated record this year her campaign has been a bit like the Harlem Globetrotters. Every time she races she gets to beat up on the same old Washington Generals. This time the Boston Celtics are coming to town and my money will be on the Celtics er. Cocoa Beach. Cocoa Beach is the first real challenge Zenyatta has had to face all year and I am going to gamble that she is not up to it. The single is Cocoa Beach. The reward in the pick 3 should be generous.
Santa Anita Race 6 Power 3 - 2,4,7,9,10 / 3,4,6,7,8 / 1
Santa Anita Race 8 Win #1 Cocoa Beach
Stats
47 16-7-4
strike rate 34%
cumulative return 117.50
$2 ROI $2.47
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label keeneland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label keeneland. Show all posts
09 October 2009
06 October 2008
Keeneland Trip Report
Things did not work out with powercap flight 23 as my bankroll would only allow the G5 to fly from LGA-TEB, well short of our intended mission. So I ended up on a commercial flight from LGA-LEX. There is only one flight a day and to my surprise much of the Belmont Jockey colony was on board too. First there was Eibar Coa, then John Velasquez and Alan Garcia showed up too. Even trainer Tom Albertrani made the trip from LGA-LEX.
LEX Airport Terminal With Horse Wallpaper
My first impression of Lexington was very green and horsey. The last 20 minutes of the flight were exclusively over horse farms, nothing but rolling pastures and paddocks. I have flown to hundreds of airports and have never seen anything like Lexington. It is a beautiful landscape. At the LEX terminal immediately everything is about horse racing. The unused terminal monitors have horse races photos as screen savers and horse racing ads are displayed throughout the terminal. The airport is modern, clean and everyone I spoke to were as friendly as could be. It was a total departure from New York where the airport is old, dirty and the poor workers have been worked over one too many times by the nasty and snobby New York flyers.
Keeneland Clubhouse Entrance
The track was just a 2 minute drive from the airport and the taxi cost $7 + tip. Keeneland has vast grounds and the track is deep inside those very green grounds. Pulling up to the grandstand I was impressed that every square inch of the exterior of the building was stone masonry. It looks like whoever constructed this joint could have afforded to fly the G5 all the way from LGA-LEX. Once inside the employees were ultra-friendly, were dressed in clean uniforms and the grounds were immaculate. Stone masonry paths, freshly painted railings and a smart, well dressed crowd.
Keeneland View From Seat/Toteboard
A great seat on the 16th pole/finish line was available for only $3 and was right in front of the impressive tote board. The tote board featured a huge megatron that was clear and with sharp resolution, a huge improvement over the burnt out pixels/fuzzy resolution of the NYRA megatron at BEL/AQU/SAR. The trakus information of the toteboard was helpful for those that did not have a set of binoculars handy. The grandstand reminded me of the Saratoga grandstand in size, scope and view. The only beef with the Keeneland grandstand was that the view of the field was obstructed when the horses reached the top of the stretch and the west facing grandstand has sun glare issues.
Keeneland Paddock
The crowd was huge for a Friday at the races. This was a different crowd that I am used to in New York. Most everyone dressed up to some extent. People still have respect for a day at the races. There was a huge amount of college aged kids and parents with their kids. People are polite and did not shout profanity at the jockeys in the paddock and when the horses returned from the races. The crowd was a good cross section of the general population unlike New York where the crowd for the races is mostly hardcore regulars from specific demographic groups . There were even non-Jamaican blacks at the races, something that is rare in New York. The conclusion here is that racing is part of the culture for all people in Lexington and not just a degenerate sub-culture like it is in New York City and most of the country. There seems to be a winning formula at Keeneland, but that winning formula starts with winning ingredients and I can not say enough good things about the people of Kentucky. They were a polite group, people with a passion for the game, with this crowd any racetrack could work well.
Forever Together Before The First Lady
Friday's card at Keeneland was good with a mix of maidens, allowance races and two grade I's. The first race was marred by an incident where Woodway jumped the rail and was vanned off. Then one of my flightmates from LGA John Valezquez went down in a horrible spill in race 7. Those two ugly incidents aside the racing was exciting and competitive. While I have been a polytrack skeptic the races began to make some sense after two days of intense handicapping. The sprint races seemed to be fair as both speed horses and closers won, while the two turn route races seemed to be won exclusively by late running closers. As someone who has completely avoided Keeneland since the polytrack installation, I may began to start investing some bankroll into the parimutuel pools there. There seems to be a potential profit in waiting as many handicappers struggle with the change to synthetic surfaces.
Keeneland Paddock
The conclusion reached after this visit is that Keeneland is the mecca of American racing. This is clearly the best track in the country. The owners of the place have a clear vision of what a racetrack should be and have actualized that vision wonderfully. It is beautiful, immaculate and has a large and passionate group of fans. Prior to Friday I would have bestowed the mecca of American racing title on Saratoga. One visit to Keeneland showed beyond a doubt that Keeneland does everything that Saratoga can do, but does it better. Both facilities have charm. Keeneland's pastoral setting in horse country gives it an edge over the Spa. Keeneland's modern, clean facility also gives it an advantage over the rough edges of Saratoga. The large and passionate crowd of Keeneland is hard to match, it turns a day at the races into a day to remember. People there are just so nice. I was glad I took the opportunity to visit Keeneland, it is a must visit place for all race fans, they do racing right.
Lexington Airport With Horse Sculptures Near Runway
LEX Airport Terminal With Horse Wallpaper
My first impression of Lexington was very green and horsey. The last 20 minutes of the flight were exclusively over horse farms, nothing but rolling pastures and paddocks. I have flown to hundreds of airports and have never seen anything like Lexington. It is a beautiful landscape. At the LEX terminal immediately everything is about horse racing. The unused terminal monitors have horse races photos as screen savers and horse racing ads are displayed throughout the terminal. The airport is modern, clean and everyone I spoke to were as friendly as could be. It was a total departure from New York where the airport is old, dirty and the poor workers have been worked over one too many times by the nasty and snobby New York flyers.
Keeneland Clubhouse Entrance
The track was just a 2 minute drive from the airport and the taxi cost $7 + tip. Keeneland has vast grounds and the track is deep inside those very green grounds. Pulling up to the grandstand I was impressed that every square inch of the exterior of the building was stone masonry. It looks like whoever constructed this joint could have afforded to fly the G5 all the way from LGA-LEX. Once inside the employees were ultra-friendly, were dressed in clean uniforms and the grounds were immaculate. Stone masonry paths, freshly painted railings and a smart, well dressed crowd.
Keeneland View From Seat/Toteboard
A great seat on the 16th pole/finish line was available for only $3 and was right in front of the impressive tote board. The tote board featured a huge megatron that was clear and with sharp resolution, a huge improvement over the burnt out pixels/fuzzy resolution of the NYRA megatron at BEL/AQU/SAR. The trakus information of the toteboard was helpful for those that did not have a set of binoculars handy. The grandstand reminded me of the Saratoga grandstand in size, scope and view. The only beef with the Keeneland grandstand was that the view of the field was obstructed when the horses reached the top of the stretch and the west facing grandstand has sun glare issues.
Keeneland Paddock
The crowd was huge for a Friday at the races. This was a different crowd that I am used to in New York. Most everyone dressed up to some extent. People still have respect for a day at the races. There was a huge amount of college aged kids and parents with their kids. People are polite and did not shout profanity at the jockeys in the paddock and when the horses returned from the races. The crowd was a good cross section of the general population unlike New York where the crowd for the races is mostly hardcore regulars from specific demographic groups . There were even non-Jamaican blacks at the races, something that is rare in New York. The conclusion here is that racing is part of the culture for all people in Lexington and not just a degenerate sub-culture like it is in New York City and most of the country. There seems to be a winning formula at Keeneland, but that winning formula starts with winning ingredients and I can not say enough good things about the people of Kentucky. They were a polite group, people with a passion for the game, with this crowd any racetrack could work well.
Forever Together Before The First Lady
Friday's card at Keeneland was good with a mix of maidens, allowance races and two grade I's. The first race was marred by an incident where Woodway jumped the rail and was vanned off. Then one of my flightmates from LGA John Valezquez went down in a horrible spill in race 7. Those two ugly incidents aside the racing was exciting and competitive. While I have been a polytrack skeptic the races began to make some sense after two days of intense handicapping. The sprint races seemed to be fair as both speed horses and closers won, while the two turn route races seemed to be won exclusively by late running closers. As someone who has completely avoided Keeneland since the polytrack installation, I may began to start investing some bankroll into the parimutuel pools there. There seems to be a potential profit in waiting as many handicappers struggle with the change to synthetic surfaces.
Keeneland Paddock
The conclusion reached after this visit is that Keeneland is the mecca of American racing. This is clearly the best track in the country. The owners of the place have a clear vision of what a racetrack should be and have actualized that vision wonderfully. It is beautiful, immaculate and has a large and passionate group of fans. Prior to Friday I would have bestowed the mecca of American racing title on Saratoga. One visit to Keeneland showed beyond a doubt that Keeneland does everything that Saratoga can do, but does it better. Both facilities have charm. Keeneland's pastoral setting in horse country gives it an edge over the Spa. Keeneland's modern, clean facility also gives it an advantage over the rough edges of Saratoga. The large and passionate crowd of Keeneland is hard to match, it turns a day at the races into a day to remember. People there are just so nice. I was glad I took the opportunity to visit Keeneland, it is a must visit place for all race fans, they do racing right.
Lexington Airport With Horse Sculptures Near Runway
02 October 2008
Keeneland Opening Day With A Play Of The Day
With all of the monstrous tickets being cashed here I have been able to fill up the G5 with Jet A for a trip to Lexington tomorrow. We should have the flight plan filed by 620am for powercap flight 23 non-stop LGA-LEX. You can track our progress on flightaware.com.
My pick in the feature is Dream Express and if she wins we will load up the G5's cabin with Woodford for the flight home back to LGA. She will be the single in the late pick 4. If you want to play along the late pick 4 will look like 6,8,11 / 3,6,8 / 6 / 2,4,5,6,7,9. The play of the day will be in Race 6 #10 Duchess Royale.
46 8-7-8
strike rate 17%
cumulative return $94.20
$2 ROI $2.05
My pick in the feature is Dream Express and if she wins we will load up the G5's cabin with Woodford for the flight home back to LGA. She will be the single in the late pick 4. If you want to play along the late pick 4 will look like 6,8,11 / 3,6,8 / 6 / 2,4,5,6,7,9. The play of the day will be in Race 6 #10 Duchess Royale.
46 8-7-8
strike rate 17%
cumulative return $94.20
$2 ROI $2.05
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