Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

31 August 2008

31 AUG Play Of The Day

Saratoga Race 3

Love the cutback and class drop on #9 Sky Dragon. Trainer Cedano worked under PG Johnson for years and this is an underrated turf barn that does not get bet. Hoping for the full 6-1 morning line on Sky Dragon. The Dragon is going to turn on the burners late and mow down this field. The presence of Retribution will ensure a hot pace set up.

W #9 Sky Dragon

41 7-7-6
strike rate 17%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.18

30 August 2008

30AUG Power Play

Curlin mania is in full swing. Back in March I began advocating for Curlin to take to the turf. He did and that was quickly aborted after one effort. Now that the turf plan has been aborted Curlin will be 1-5 to take down the Woodward as plan B. I will play against him here at a short price. Love the lone speed and second off layoff of Wanderin Boy, this race is plan A for him. This guy is underrated and will be loose in here with the mud calks on a wet track. 10-1 is realistic and he could score in a wire to wire smasher.

Saratoga Race 10 Win #8 Wanderin Boy

40 7-7-5
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.23

29 August 2008

International Main Track Invasion

Many of the top American main track races are being targeted by International raiders. Usually a turf invasion is expected but this main track raid is a pleasant surprise. From East and west many of the top races are going to have an International presence. All of these horses may converge in the Breeders Cup classic. There have not been many positive things to say about synthetic surfaces however an increased international presence is a positive side effect this year. Half of the horses in the gate of the Breeders Cup Classic could be foreign raiders which could make for interesting Breeders Cup Betting.

Jalil, the $9.7 million Darley purchase makes his North American debut in the Waquoit Stakes on Saturday at Suffolk Downs. His future plans include the Mass Cap and the Classic.

From the east Casino Drive is confirmed to return to America shortly and will target the Goodwood at Santa Anita with the long term goal the Breeders Cup Classic.

Arlington Million winner Spirit One surprisingly will try the dirt in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on his way to the Breeders Cup Classic.

Henrythenavigator the leading Irish miler is being pointed to the Breeders Cup Classic as well. As of now this one has not raced beyond one mile.

Duke Of Marmalade is undefeated this year in Group I middle distance races and will likely skip the Arc De Triumph. Instead he will race in the Irish Champion stakes and has a date in the Breeders Cup in either the Turf or Classic.

27 August 2008

Breeder's Cup Advance Look

Two months out from the Breeders Cup and the storyline is taking shape. With the switch to the new Pro-Ride surface Europeans will be lured into races traditionally dominated by the Americans like the Classic or Distaff(Ladies Classic). For a great run down of all the contenders check out this sharp resource that provides tremendous information on Breeders Cup Betting. Bodog has a tremendous amount of information on all of the Breeders Cup contenders and is the place where savvy handicappers make their plays.

This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors

Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.

Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.

Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.

Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.

Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.

Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.

Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.

Breeder's Cup Mile

Kip Deville
- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.

Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.

Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']

TVG Sprint

Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.

In Summation-
loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.

Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.

Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.

27AUG Power Play

Saratoga Race 10

Draw a line through the last off the turf race for #10 Criminal power. this one can stalk the pace and finish well here at a huge price. Like the work in between and the last two try's on the turf.
Think this one can light up the tote. Be sure to bet $10 on the 10 in race 10 today at Saratoga.

Race 10 Win #10 Criminal Power

39 7-7-5
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.29

23 August 2008

23AUG Play Of The Day

23AUG08 Saratoga Race 11
There is a $1 million pick 4 pool up for grabs today at Saratoga. My single is in the Travers, Mambo In Seattle. He will relish the distance, is a reliable stalker and has great works and
proven over the track. With him singled in this huge field it will
leave options open in the other three races to go deep and connect the right price horses. Mambo In Seattle is the play of the day.

Saratoga Race 11 Win #9

38 7-6-5
strike rate 18%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.35

21 August 2008

Triple Crown Winner Today At The Spa

Finally after umpteen years we finally have a triple crown winner. Okay well it was just the New York bred triple crown series and not the famous Derby/Preakness/Belmont thing. While some people will marginalize the accomplishment of beating statebreds, the undefeated Tin Cup Chalice was a game as a racehorse could be holding off three separate tests in the stretch to win the Albany Stakes at Saratoga by a head. It was a stirring, game performance as he looked beaten by the surging Thatsrightofficer mid-stretch. This undefeated multiple stakes winner is the first horse in history to claim the NY bred triple crown bonus of $250,000. The gelding has won all of his races at distances from 5 1/2 to 9 furlongs. While he has never won a graded stakes he is as game as they come and fights hard in the lane. I found his win today to be a moving performance and he left no doubt that it would take a hellava game racehorse to finally defeat Tin Cup Chalice

15 August 2008

16Aug Value Play Of The Day

Saratoga Race 6
Like Spider Rock on the drop. This 12-1 ML horse has a class edge as the only horse to break his maiden versus open company maiden specials. His last race at Belmont could be tossed and will significantly darken the form to set up todays price. Good value on this one and the works say he is ready.

Saratoga Race 6

Win #4 Spider Rock

37 7-6-5
strike rate 19%
cumulative return $89.30
$2 ROI $2.41

Took A Few Weeks Off From Racing

Something profound has really happened up there at Saratoga. My last post here two weeks ago was a sort of a malcontented complain post. Rather than drone on bashing the game endlessly for everything from the rain to the lack or route races I took some time off. For the first time in a long time I went two weeks without making a wager or thinking about racing or checking results. It was good to give my Greg starved non-racing fans more time. Now that they are completely sick of me it is back to racing for Saturday.

The weather has been so wet around here. For example I purchased a steak to barbeque on Tuesday and I couldn't cook the thing all week as every single day rained. I reluctantly broke my Catholic vows and cooked it today on the outdoor grill in a rainstorm. Hopefully tomorrows card is not a washout like my Friday afternoon BBQ.

05 August 2008

Saratoga-Too Much Of A Good Thing

Porterhouse is my favorite cut of meat but If I had to eat it for breakfast, lunch and dinner for 6 weeks I would surely make its way to the bottom of my favorite cuts of meat list right under buffalo testicles. Saratoga has been running 10 or 11 races a day since the meet began. While the action has been intriguing it has reached a point where it is too much action. Day after day of five hour cards and 40 page pp printouts have begun to wear thin. I see that Wednesday yet another 10 race beast. This is an area where the obsessive horse racing fan can get into trouble. With all the statebred action this week it may be a good time to tune out for a few days and refresh the mind with other interests.