Struggling to Remain Engaged

Perhaps it is just my point of view but it seems that racing has crossed a new threshold into irrelevance. Once dedicated fans have decreased their involvement in the sport. My wagering is down over 75% this year. While other sports are erecting new cathedrals of excellence Aqueduct has a dumpster as the local point of it's apron. It seems that all of the value in wagering and excitement of the competition has flown the coop. The programs are littered with short fields and state bred welfare races. A perfect storm of economic forces, changing tastes, poor leadership, fractured control and slots fueled indifference has led to a critical point where the whole industry's foundation has been weakened.


Racing seems like it can not get out of its own way. While I really want to embrace synthetic surfaces, I find them to be the equivalent of a monkey-wrench. Racing may need change but this was the wrong change. Synthetic surfaces add complexity to a game that is already too abstract for many tastes. With races like the Blue Grass and Lexington relegated to irrelevant farces it seems like whole race meets are contested in a parallel universe that have no relevance to this(dirt racing) dimension. The false consumer morality that led tracks like Keeneland to install synthetic surfaces has led them into a tactical error. The dirt surfaces should have been upgraded and properly maintained; the new surfaces are foreign and bewildering to the majority of handicappers and horsemen. This major change the fabric of the product has quickened the rush to the doors.


this dumpster is now the focal point of the Aqueduct facility

Here in New York the incessant corruption is most easily viewed as it pertains to the racing industry. It is a shame that the press now longer provides a check on the politicians and has let them get away with ruining Aqueduct for so long. With the media not reporting the facts the public is oblivious to the buffoonery associated with the Aqueduct VLT project. The only action taken here has been inaction. NYRA has waited for almost ten years to have slots installed while Albany continues to drag it feet. Worst yet is the process has relegated NYRA to a de facto ward of the state. Hanging onto the slots as its meal ticket, NYRA has been frozen into inaction awaiting the slots like a welfare mother awaiting the first on the month. Meanwhile the grifters in Albany are planning round five of the Aqueduct slots cash grab. Wasn't round four a enough of a laugh? Every time these politicians run this farce it slowly loses it's effectiveness to garner kickbacks and favor from those that desire the Aqueduct slots contract. There was a time when Las Vegas giant MGM was going to operate this casino. Then politicians stepped in, restarted the process four times and cashed in time after time with kick backs. Now it looks like this slots grab could garner very little interest in the gaming industry. Certainly the respected names in the gaming industry like Steve Wynn will have nothing to do with the farce of New York racing after four aborted slots approval processes. K&K wigs of White Plains may end up with a better casino than Aqueduct.

While round five of slots cash grab commences the parasite known as NYC OTB is threatening to close down. It looks like they want to book bets without paying the track operators. If OTB was to have closed down ten years ago this could have been a huge positive for the industry. Racing could have shaken the image of the degenerate that is the popular image of horseplayers. The OTB should be something of the past. With this degenerate image in the past racing could have moved towards respectability. Perhaps mainstream marketers like Patrick Patten could have crafted a new imagine for racing away the crass materialism of naked gambling to something more gentlemanly or mainstream. The fear now is with racing in such a horrible condition that the loss of the OTB revenue may be a death blow; it is like starting a surgery while the patient is struggling to fight off an infection. The other fear is that the OTB fans may not return to bet; many of the old degenerates that filled the parlors will simply retire. OTB is a subject that will require leadership; however it seems to be a area steeped in corruption with a lack of vision.

The only bright spot remains the upcoming Monmouth meet- perhaps even this could be a negative as it could be the nail in NYRA's coffin. With racing out of New York the entire industry may just lose it's national niche and become a provincial rural sport like rodeo. California racing is in trouble too. New York like California means big money and media presence. Without New York or Southern California racing is a much smaller industry. The looming triple crown is the one time where racing will hit the mainstream for a few weeks. This triple crown could be the calm eye of a storm. In a few years racing will likely have a much different look as the game is gutted.

Dirt Tracks Relegated to Nature Trails and Construction Sites

Unfortunately NYRA canceled this weekends Stuyvesant Handicap GIII $100k USD for older horses due to lack of interest from horseman. Meanwhile a few hundred miles away at Woodbine 12 horses are entered for the Autumn stakes GII $150K CAN for older horses. Similar purse, similar condition but one race can not even muster five participants while another is overflowing with entries. This illustrates the success of synthetic surface racing and the fading appeal of dirt racing.

While many fans of the sport have lamented the demise of dirt racing it seems that in places like New York dirt stakes racing has become an anachronism. The NYRA dirt stakes calender has become filled with short fields that are always at the mercy of weather. Up at Woodbine the stakes menu on the polytrack has flourished. Large competitive fields with shippers and little worry that weather will effect affect the races. Meanwhile at Aqueduct the weather played a major role in canceling the Stuyvesant. NYRA stakes coordinator Andrew Byrnes "“We decided today because we only had five entries and two or three of them said they were not going to run if it rained. The forecast calls for two inches (Nov. 14), so we didn’t want a field of two or three horses."

At Woodbine the Autumn Stakes attracted a competitive full field of main track and turf horses from coast to coast. Teide will ship in from the west coast, Sr. Henry from Keeneland, and Storm Caller from New York. Not one horse was to ship to New York for the canceled Stuyvesant. Woodbine is quickly eclipsing New York as the top east coast track for horsemen and horseplayers. The synthetic racing at Woodbine features large competitive fields that have generous returns. Competitive racing is the excitement that people look for when playing racing. While the horsemen have embraced synthetic racing, most American horseplayers still maintain an aversion to synthetic racing. The reliable speed horses, the mental shortcut speed figures and the quarterhorse "run and gun" style of running has lost the edge. Racing over the synthetic is fair racing. A poster who goes by"The Fatman" at paceadvantage outlines the aversion to synthetic track racing:

Those accustomed to SPEED BIASED DIRT TRACKS just can't come to grips with having to handle FAIR racing. There's more to racing than betting the speed. More to it than just looking at numbers, seeing who's fastest early and then just betting that horse. Well, at least that's the case when it comes to POLY. What I like about POLY is that the BEST horse has a chance in every race, no matter what the PACE. You can't say that about DIRT and you certainly couldn't say it about KEE and CALI, when they had those speed biased tracks.

The POLY HATERS can write whatever they want but it all comes down to not being able to handle the 'extra' that's necessary to win on these surfaces.

Almost forever the 'truism' was that SPEED usually wins. Not any more. The game is a bit more complicated than that on POLY.

While dirt racing in New York flounders, synthetic racing at Woodbine has blossomed. Synthetic surfaces may be the future, however in the breeding world synthetic surfaces have reawakened the past. The stamina breeding practices of past generations have have once again become the breeding ideal- while dirt speed breeding associated with breakdowns and distance challenged one-dimensional speed freaks has become the new anachronism. The horses, the prices and the future is in synthetic racing.

Are Synthetic Surfaces Weeding Out The Derby Speed?

Many times the Kentucky Derby has been what I call a "chaos race". Start with a large field then add in an abundance of speed horses and need the lead colts with no hope whatsoever and you have something hot and sultry breaking out on the lead. These heated speed duels on the lead neutralize the quality speed horses, and set the race up for deep closers. Monarchos is a great example and well as Giacomo in 2005. This year is setting up to be a walk in the park on the lead. Looking at the top 20 graded earning list it seems the preponderance of synthetic prep races have stopped the cheap speed horses before they crossed the velvet ropes into the entry box. Almost every horse to emerge from the Kentucky or California preps are devoid of speed. Those lucky enough to prep and possess speed have a marked advantage over their synthetic raced competition.

We can bemoan the effect of synthetic surfaces on racing or we can accept it and profit from it. Smart money chooses to accept the present. In past years California and Keeneland produced very fast colts for the derby, this is not the case this year. There is no Sinister Minister or Brancusi to overheat a speed duel. This year the California preps have yielded a graduating class permeated by closers or horses with a turf pedigree.


Pioneer Of The Nile, the leading candidate from California was judged a turf horse by his former conditioner Bill Mott. Mott started this colt on the turf and he had a successful two year old campaign over the weeds. For his three year old campaign he was sent to Baffert specifically to take advantage of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Now in the biggest race of the year the Empire Maker colt has to cede all advantage and try something that he was deemed not to be his forte. While he and the dozen or so like him are spinning their wheels on the foreign surface they are going to have to deal with dirt kickback. Add in a tactical disadvantage we have a stacked deck against the synthetic derby prep graduates.

The Derby may have produced a "who's who" of Chefs De Race but this years Kentucky based preps (Lanes End, Bluegrass, Lex) have a produced a "who the heck is that" list of Derby candidates. These races over the polytrack at Turfway and Keeneland have produced confounding longshot victories and every colt considered for the Derby out of these races is devoid of speed. The perfect scenario for a wire to wire victory in the Kentucky derby is building.

The horses that stand to benefit are Quality Road, Papa Clem, Friesian Fire and I Want Revenge. This becomes a case of the rich get richer as all four have class and speed. Now they have a tactical advantage as well. All four horses have shown speed along with a rating gear which should further ice any possible speed duel. The only need the lead type even being considered is Todd Pletcher's Join In The Dance.

Quality Road who figures to be the speed of the speed may just benefit the most from the likely pace scenario. Quality Road was very impressive winning the Fountain Of Youth. In the FOY Quality Road outlasted three other quality speed sprinters and drew off to win for fun. On paper the FOY was a speed chaos race. Then Quality Road stretched out and turned back the highly touted and heavily bet Dunkirk in the Florida Derby after being passed at the top of the lane, showing class and gameness. All indicaters except that quarter crack are pointing to Quality Road.

A Sentiment Shared By Many Horseplayers

Some prankster out in California rented an airplane to tow this banner over Santa Anita. If there was any doubt how some people feel about synthetic tracks this makes it very clear.

Garret Gomez confirms that Santa Anita is not safe

One of the prerequisites of gambling is a fair game. We are talking about a fifty-two card deck, balanced dice or a safe, fair racetrack. Santa Anita's track disaster is the equivalent of dealing a forty-nine card deck or shooting with loaded dice. The track is not safe and that has been confirmed by leading Rider Garret Gomez. This is the last chance for Magna to show that it can rise above the complete incompetence that has plagued its operations.



Gomez has confirmed publicly that he may desert the Santa Anita colony for a safer track. Gomez described jagged rocks poking out of the stripped down surface. How can this be safe? With little choice or time to improve the conditions, the defective cushion track is a looming catastrophe. This is a surface that is not fit for the world class racing, due to this reason the quality of the Santa Anita meet will noticeably deteriorate as top horses follow Gomez to a safer racetrack. Along with Gomez and the Grade I type horses the action of American horse players will move elsewhere. What remains will not be the world class Santa Anita meet that the world is used to.


With the breeders cup on the horizon, just nine months away, the stakes are huge for Santa Anita/Magna management. The track installation incompetence have placed them between a rock and a hard place. Magna the troubled track operator has reached rock bottom and it is a jagged rock bottom. Bankruptcy, failed slot operations and now incompetent track construction have placed Magna in a precarious position. The outcome of this fiasco will indicate if Magna can continue as a track owner in North America. If Santa Anita can rise to the challenge of fixing the track they have destroyed, this organization may turn the corner into a viable track operator. However if this meet falls into complete chaos, complete with a killing field surface and intermittent cancellations Magna's extraordinary incompetence may just run out it out of the equine gaming business. The Breeders Cup is hanging in the balance.