The Preakness is now a week away; the Derby is considered the biggest event of the year, but the most important race of the year historically speaking is the Preakness. It has decided more year end honors than any other race has done in recent memory. Not to mention the obvious that it is the middle leg of the Triple Crown and is a single elimination playoff race for the Derby winner. There have been some dramatic finishes in recently as well. Recent memory speaks for itself on this one.
2010, Lookin at Lucky
After rough trips at Churchill and Santa Anita, he acquitted himself nicely with a jockey switch from Garret Gomez to Martin Garcia. Lookin at Lucky went on the clinch the divisional championship with a win in the Haskell. The Derby winner Super Saver was not the same after this race with the first of three off the board finishes. First Dude finished a resilient second after setting the pace, foreshadowing what the rest of the year held for this horse.
2009, Rachel Alexandra
Mine That Bird did not scare off many in this race and one of the chief opponents was a filly that just won by 20 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks. Breaking from post 13, Rachel Alexandra was wide most of the way while near the lead and still had enough left to hold off the surge of Mine That Bird. She went on to beat the male competition twice after this race en route to Horse of the Year and Champion three year old filly honors.
2008, Big Brown
After a dominant win in the Derby, he won with ease in the Preakness. If it weren’t for a quarter crack injury before the Belmont, this one would be referred to as a Triple Crown winner. He won two races at Monmouth Park and was named three-year-old champion.
2007, Curlin
The juvenile champion Street Sense and Curlin battled down to the wire in a photo finish that was about a fingernail difference between Street Sense going for a Triple Crown and taking an extended rest for the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup. Curlin was involved in two other thrilling stretch runs, the Belmont against Rags to Riches and the Jockey Club Gold Cup against Lawyer Ron. Both of those opponents went on to be named three-year-old filly champion and older male champion respectively. Curlin went on to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder’s Cup Classic, which was the first of two Horse of the Year campaigns.
Animal Kingdom and Dialed In are the two horses that will immediately get a boost to the top of the class based on past successes. If one of the fresh horses or a Derby also ran wins it, a new challenger for the year-end championships has arrived. It will certainly be an interesting week.
Power cap- existential handicapping
Showing posts with label Dialed In. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dialed In. Show all posts
14 May 2011
13 May 2011
Money Money Money
The Preakness is fast approaching after the long build towards the Kentucky Derby; the connections of Dialed In will be going for a $5.5 million payday being offered for winning the Holly Bull, Florida Derby and the Preakness. If Animal Kingdom wins this race and the Belmont to become the 12th Triple Crown winner, the owner is in line for $2.4 million in total purses without any bonus.
If Dialed in does win this race it is more than likely than not that Zito will chose to skip the Belmont with this one. He has stated that this horse thrives on a light schedule, a mile and a half race three weeks out from the Preakness is definitely not in a light schedule. If there were no bonus being offered for the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it is very likely that Dialed In would be training for the Belmont.
Only one horse has a chance at the Triple Crown, Animal Kingdom. His explosive run in the Derby made this possible. Up until 2004 there was a bonus offered by Visa for any horse that could sweep the series and in addition to that they held a less known, but lucrative bonus for the points leader of the three-year-old division up until August of the racing season. Before Visa, Chrysler had a Triple Crown series bonus based on points with a million-dollar bonus for the leader in points for those who raced in all three races. No one is sponsoring the hallowed racing series this year, leaving a $2.9 million dollar gap in purse incentives between the three big races and the Magna purse sweetener.
The old saying “Money makes the horse go” can certainly be used here; Dialed In ran an even, but distant ninth in the run for the roses. The Preakness would not be on the radar of the connections of Dialed In if it weren’t for the money being offered. Ice Box ran a visually impressive second last year in the Derby for the same trainer and same owner as Dialed In, they opted to try the Belmont instead of wheeling back in two weeks for the big race in Baltimore. This only goes to show that if there is an added incentive to run that trainers and owners will find their way to the secretary’s office a lot faster than usual. Back in the early nineties there was a series of races that offered bonuses for the handicap division called the American Championship Racing Series. Those races featured full fields with top horses facing off.
If anything the slot machine parlors and card rooms probably won’t be the savoir of racing, but they do offer a new revenue stream. That revenue stream at its best can serve as a way to get horses out of the stables and back on to the racetrack. With NYRA eventually getting this new source of income, one could be hopeful that this could lead to juiced up purses with bonuses that have the possibility of attracting large fields for one of the beacons of racing in the United States.
If Dialed in does win this race it is more than likely than not that Zito will chose to skip the Belmont with this one. He has stated that this horse thrives on a light schedule, a mile and a half race three weeks out from the Preakness is definitely not in a light schedule. If there were no bonus being offered for the middle leg of the Triple Crown, it is very likely that Dialed In would be training for the Belmont.
Only one horse has a chance at the Triple Crown, Animal Kingdom. His explosive run in the Derby made this possible. Up until 2004 there was a bonus offered by Visa for any horse that could sweep the series and in addition to that they held a less known, but lucrative bonus for the points leader of the three-year-old division up until August of the racing season. Before Visa, Chrysler had a Triple Crown series bonus based on points with a million-dollar bonus for the leader in points for those who raced in all three races. No one is sponsoring the hallowed racing series this year, leaving a $2.9 million dollar gap in purse incentives between the three big races and the Magna purse sweetener.
The old saying “Money makes the horse go” can certainly be used here; Dialed In ran an even, but distant ninth in the run for the roses. The Preakness would not be on the radar of the connections of Dialed In if it weren’t for the money being offered. Ice Box ran a visually impressive second last year in the Derby for the same trainer and same owner as Dialed In, they opted to try the Belmont instead of wheeling back in two weeks for the big race in Baltimore. This only goes to show that if there is an added incentive to run that trainers and owners will find their way to the secretary’s office a lot faster than usual. Back in the early nineties there was a series of races that offered bonuses for the handicap division called the American Championship Racing Series. Those races featured full fields with top horses facing off.
If anything the slot machine parlors and card rooms probably won’t be the savoir of racing, but they do offer a new revenue stream. That revenue stream at its best can serve as a way to get horses out of the stables and back on to the racetrack. With NYRA eventually getting this new source of income, one could be hopeful that this could lead to juiced up purses with bonuses that have the possibility of attracting large fields for one of the beacons of racing in the United States.
04 April 2011
Better get to know a Derby prospect: Dialed In
Nickname: Ice Box Jr.
First Impression: A deep closing three years old colt trained by Zito, this seems familiar.
The case for this horse winning the Derby: Usually the pace of the Derby is extremely fast and horses who come off the pace fare well in this type of scenario.
Case Against: The same tactics that give Ice Box an edge over his front running rivals also could work against him. The Derby has more traffic tie ups than midtown Manhattan during the afternoon.
Zito once again has a Derby runner after being prominent, but not winning any of the three spring classics last year. This one is probably better than the contemporary that he mirrors, Ice Box. Last year Ice Box went into the Derby with maiden and an upset win in the Florida Derby. Dialed In has three decent efforts to his name this year and a start at two for some classic foundation.
If Uncle Mo doesn’t make the race he could end up being the favorite. If the juvenile champ does run, then Dialed In will probably be one of the commonly used alternatives to Uncle Mo. The key with the closer types is the works leading up to the race. If a closer shows bullets or fast works leading up to a race, the horse is ready to run a big one.
First Impression: A deep closing three years old colt trained by Zito, this seems familiar.
The case for this horse winning the Derby: Usually the pace of the Derby is extremely fast and horses who come off the pace fare well in this type of scenario.
Case Against: The same tactics that give Ice Box an edge over his front running rivals also could work against him. The Derby has more traffic tie ups than midtown Manhattan during the afternoon.
Zito once again has a Derby runner after being prominent, but not winning any of the three spring classics last year. This one is probably better than the contemporary that he mirrors, Ice Box. Last year Ice Box went into the Derby with maiden and an upset win in the Florida Derby. Dialed In has three decent efforts to his name this year and a start at two for some classic foundation.
If Uncle Mo doesn’t make the race he could end up being the favorite. If the juvenile champ does run, then Dialed In will probably be one of the commonly used alternatives to Uncle Mo. The key with the closer types is the works leading up to the race. If a closer shows bullets or fast works leading up to a race, the horse is ready to run a big one.
24 February 2011
Kentucky Derby Failure Five, Round Two
The first edition of the failure five saw two of the five horses mentioned drop off the pathway, Boys at Toscanova and Tapizar. Tapizar ran poorly in the Bob Lewis Stakes and an injury was found shortly after the race, Boys at Toscanova was not training well and was removed from consideration due to this. In light of this, it is time to update the list.
1. Uncle Mo
The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.
2. To Honor and Serve
The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.
3. Dialed In
There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?
4. Mucho Macho Man
An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.
5. The Factor
One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.
1. Uncle Mo
The Derby Futures morning line favorite among the entries listed and there is not much to report on this one. Gulfstream Park wrote a race up around the same time as the Tampa Bay Derby in hopes of luring this horse away from Tampa Bay Downs. I’m sure this glorified allowance race will not fill though.
2. To Honor and Serve
The three-year-old debut of this horse will be this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth Stakes; this race produced Eskendereya last year. In related news, Belmont Stakes ticket applications are being accepted now. The only reason this is relative is the fact that for a horse to win the Triple Crown he has to have experience over the Belmont oval, To Honor and Serve has that going for him and the connections go a long way as well. With that being said he will probably either miss the Derby completely or be a tough luck loser in the first leg and run the table in the last two legs. That seems to be the way things go in this sport.
3. Dialed In
There seems to be a recurring theme with this group of three-year-olds, it is that they don’t race much. The top two are still working out and this one will skip a showdown with To Honor and Serve to train up to the Florida Derby. It should be noted that this horse was the co-second choice on the morning line with To Honor and Serve in the futures pool with only two starts to his name. This horse is set up to fall short with this type of schedule, if everything goes according to plan he would make it to the Derby with only three starts and a running style that requires a perfect trip in order to win. Curlin was one of the better horses to compete in the last twenty or so years and he could not pull off a Derby victory with a light schedule leading up to the race, how could this horse be any different?
4. Mucho Macho Man
An old angle that has worked almost every winter and spring with the three-year-olds has been that if a trainer ships a horse out of their home base, the horse will be a force to be reckoned with. It struck again this weekend when Mucho Macho Man shipped to Fair Grounds and beat a wide-open field in the Risen Star. Chances are this horse will train in Florida and race again in the Louisiana Derby. Using Fair Grounds as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby has not been a successful route. The last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby was Grindstone back in 1996.
5. The Factor
One California speedball gets knocked out of the frame only to get replaced by another. Baffert has not stated that he is aiming this one for the big dance, but seeing how it is a three-year-old trained by Baffert it is a safe bet he will take a shot at this with a race going two turns in the near future. Two races Baffert cited the Sunland Derby or the Rebel Stakes as possible next starts.
31 January 2011
Kentucky Derby Failure Five
Almost every racing website has a columnist or two that ranks the Derby hopefuls leading up to the event. This is our attempt to capitalize on the trend not by saying the ranked horses are the best of the group, but by saying they will somehow defect out of the Kentucky Derby or fall short of expectations.
1. Uncle Mo
The champion juvenile and winter book favorite for the big race. Pletcher is waiting until March to start this one in the Tampa Bay Derby, the last two year old champ to do that was War Pass. There are other parallels with War Pass and Uncle Mo as well, both completed the Champagne-Juvenile sweep and both seem to have the same career trajectory. War Pass was lightly raced at two with only four starts on his record and Uncle Mo went to post three times last year. More good news for Uncle Mo’s backers too, the last three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners did not make it to the Derby.
2. To Honor and Serve
The Remsen to Kentucky path has not been one of success since Thunder Gulch pulled off the trick in 1994. Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor, and Buddy’s Saint went into their three year old campaigns as hot horses for the Derby only to be sidelined before the main event took place. The runner-up in the Remsen, Mucho Macho Man returned to service in the Holy Bull only to gets his doors blown off by Dialed In as well.
3. Boys At Tosconova
This horse was intended to make his debut this weekend in the Holy Bull, but that was called off because Dutrow did not like how his horse looked going into the race. Probably a wise move on the part of Dutrow, not a good sign for a three year old early in the season though. The pedigree on this one seems to be a bit of a wash, Officer is the sire which probably means that nine furlongs is his limit and Coronado’s Quest is on the dam’s side of the pedigree, which is a decent stamina influence. This horse is a question mark with four legs. Also of note on this horse:
At Horse Racing Nation they are advertising Uncle Mo merchandise on the page of Boys At Toscanova, not a lot of respect being doled out for this horse.
4. Dialed In
A Kentucky Derby prep season without Zito is something that doesn’t happen often. His whole stable is centered on having horses entered in the three year old classics and when that doesn’t happen his year is kind of shot. Had fun losing money on Ice Box in the Derby and Belmont last year? Well this is your chance to get more of the same punishment, this horse has the same type of running style as Ice Box and got a win earlier in the season at Gulfstream than Ice Box did. Andrew Beyer also penned that if this horse won the Holy Bull that it would make the prep season much more interesting. Beyer was right on something, that may be a sign of the apocalypse.
5. Tapizar
Not only included here to defeat all claims of having an east coast bias, but also because this is the first three year old in a long time that I think may turn into something special. Twice now he has outrun other stakes horses on final time, on November 27 his maiden victory was faster than the two mile and a sixteenth stakes races that took place and his win last out was faster than a stakes race for four year olds on the same day.
So you may be asking me why is he on a list filled with horses that you think may be flops and fizzle out of the picture for the Kentucky Derby? Because the last horse I had this type of notion on was Repent, he got injured after finishing second to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby and lost subsequent starts in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.
1. Uncle Mo
The champion juvenile and winter book favorite for the big race. Pletcher is waiting until March to start this one in the Tampa Bay Derby, the last two year old champ to do that was War Pass. There are other parallels with War Pass and Uncle Mo as well, both completed the Champagne-Juvenile sweep and both seem to have the same career trajectory. War Pass was lightly raced at two with only four starts on his record and Uncle Mo went to post three times last year. More good news for Uncle Mo’s backers too, the last three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners did not make it to the Derby.
2. To Honor and Serve
The Remsen to Kentucky path has not been one of success since Thunder Gulch pulled off the trick in 1994. Old Fashioned, Rockport Harbor, and Buddy’s Saint went into their three year old campaigns as hot horses for the Derby only to be sidelined before the main event took place. The runner-up in the Remsen, Mucho Macho Man returned to service in the Holy Bull only to gets his doors blown off by Dialed In as well.
3. Boys At Tosconova
This horse was intended to make his debut this weekend in the Holy Bull, but that was called off because Dutrow did not like how his horse looked going into the race. Probably a wise move on the part of Dutrow, not a good sign for a three year old early in the season though. The pedigree on this one seems to be a bit of a wash, Officer is the sire which probably means that nine furlongs is his limit and Coronado’s Quest is on the dam’s side of the pedigree, which is a decent stamina influence. This horse is a question mark with four legs. Also of note on this horse:
At Horse Racing Nation they are advertising Uncle Mo merchandise on the page of Boys At Toscanova, not a lot of respect being doled out for this horse.
4. Dialed In
A Kentucky Derby prep season without Zito is something that doesn’t happen often. His whole stable is centered on having horses entered in the three year old classics and when that doesn’t happen his year is kind of shot. Had fun losing money on Ice Box in the Derby and Belmont last year? Well this is your chance to get more of the same punishment, this horse has the same type of running style as Ice Box and got a win earlier in the season at Gulfstream than Ice Box did. Andrew Beyer also penned that if this horse won the Holy Bull that it would make the prep season much more interesting. Beyer was right on something, that may be a sign of the apocalypse.
5. Tapizar
Not only included here to defeat all claims of having an east coast bias, but also because this is the first three year old in a long time that I think may turn into something special. Twice now he has outrun other stakes horses on final time, on November 27 his maiden victory was faster than the two mile and a sixteenth stakes races that took place and his win last out was faster than a stakes race for four year olds on the same day.
So you may be asking me why is he on a list filled with horses that you think may be flops and fizzle out of the picture for the Kentucky Derby? Because the last horse I had this type of notion on was Repent, he got injured after finishing second to War Emblem in the 2002 Illinois Derby and lost subsequent starts in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
