No Mo

In his last prep for the 2011 Kentucky Derby did not look the part of being an invincible running machine. Most of the talk up in the Manhattan Terrace was "how good is this horse" and "the only hard test for this will be the Belmont Stakes". It appears now that this horse is just as good as his competition and the hard test for this horse will probably be his subsequent starts against the rest of his generation.

Great horses lose, Native Dancer lost his Derby by a decreasing margin and Seattle Slew was defeated after a superb effort in the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup. A great horse may lose, but most of the time they still hold that look that they were still much the best in defeat. The way Uncle Mo lost did not give that impression at all, he got to an early lead where John Velazquez controlled the early tempo and saw his margin in front diminish steadily through the duration of the stretch run.

The last time a juvenile champion ran in the Wood Memorial was 2008, War Pass was coming off of a poor effort in his seasonal debut in March at the Tampa Bay Derby. He led the pack until inside the eighth pole only to succumb to Tale of Ekati. The parallels between War Pass and Uncle Mo have been uncanny as well. Both ran big races in the Champagne and Juvenile, both waited until March for their first start of the year, and both looked underwhelming in those starts.

Usually the case with these types of horses is they are checked on by a veterinarian or go through x-rays and find something wrong or amiss. They are then quickly retired and there is a stud deal quickly reached. It is cynical, but that seems to happen more often than not. The next four weeks have gotten a little bit more interesting with the recent downfall of the divisional champion.

Scenes from the Big A: The Wood Memorial

The main event of the spring Aqueduct meet is the Wood Memorial, this year the storyline was that this was the prep for the probable Derby favorite Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo went from probable favorite to one of many contenders for sought after prize in about one minute and fifty one seconds.






NYRA or the concession company that works with NYRA had a drink special that was called the Uncle Mojito, more than likely this will be the only time you see this drink special offered after today's performance.



With a an upset like this you figure some fans would take this loss a bit harder than others based on their financial stake in the outcome or other reasons than that. Apparently one fan had a lot riding on Uncle Mo on Saturday.

Kentucky Derby Futures Round-Up

With less than four weeks to the Kentucky Derby bettors are solidifying opinions. It is becoming more and more clear that I Want Revenge is going to be the clear favorite as we move closer to the race. As more people watch the Wood and listen to Durkin's hysterics I Want Revenge is going to start to build hype. The current Kentucky Derby betting has I Want Revenge listed at 7-2. With the second choice Quality Road not able to train due to a quarter crack it seems like I Want Revenge has opened up daylight on his competition. Quality Road is questionable just to be in the gate, 5-1 on him to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby is a sucker bet. The co-third choice is the lightly raced Dunkirk at 6-1 who was easily turned back by Quality Road. Dunkirk lacks seasoning and is another who is questionable to be in the gate due to a lack of earnings. With new defections showing up by the day Dunkirk does figure to sneak in the race. The other third choice is Friesen Fire who won the Louisiana Derby by a pole, but that was on slop which typically produces disingenuous win margins. Freisen Fire's seven week gap in races is bewildering to me so 6-1 does not interest me at all. The fifth choice at 7-1 is Pioneer Of The Nile who is a turf horse. Without synthetic surfaces this horses would not even be on this list. 7-1 on the Zayat stable runner is another sucker bet. Out of all the short price type horses I Want Revenge Stands Tall, 7-2 is not a bad proposition and you will surely be looking at a shorter price on derby day.

At the other end of the odds spectrum an intriguing longshot is Papa Clem. This colt was stuck out in Wally Wubber World California where his first four races were on all-weather surfaces. He ran very gamely in California and displayed a run style that may translate better to a dirt surface. Papa Clem took his shot on dirt in the sloppy Louisiana Derby and ran okay first time while on a completely foreign surface. He will run in the Arkansas Derby and I suspect he will give a good account of himself there. If you want to grab some value the current 40-1 on Papa Clem is appetizing. His price may drop dramatically after Saturday if he wins or places like I suspect at Oaklawn.

Wood Memorial Trip Report

Yet another great day at the Big-A. While others choose to waste hundreds of dollars to go to taxpayer park A & B($1.8 Billion in public debt)the smart discretionary money was at the Big-A. Free to admission, free parking and free to scream your lungs off. The weather was a brisk 55F and the forecast winds gusting to 35 knots out of the southwest were blocked by the massive grandstand. The track was very fair to closers and speed, so perhaps Todd Pletcher must be kicking himself for not entering Dunkirk in the Wood who likely could have given a favorable account of himself on a fair surface.

The crowd was boisterous at the Big-A. There were random chats of Tala-mo throughout the day from the third floor grandstand. One side of the grandstand would randomly and loudly chant "tala!" and the other side would return chant "mo!". This went on for most of the day and foreshadowed the Wood heroics. No PA system required to tell the fans what to do as the life was bubbling out of them, no PA system puppet strings required. For a modest sized crowd it was loud and the stakes winners all received rounds of applause when they returned to be unsaddled. It was sort of like a mini-Belmont Stakes day in an edgy environment.


It was was a very interesting card and the track was fair with speed, stalkers or closers all claiming wins on the day. Almost every year a obscene longshot wins one of the undercard races (2005 Livelyupyourself 48-1, etc etc) and this year that tradition was upheld by All Bets Off at 20-1 in race 2. Race 6 winner Montecore is a horse to watch as he won with complete ease. The winner of the Bay Shore Capt Candyman Can looked tremendous in the paddock and ran to his looks. Giant Moon continued his successful return to the races with improving form third off the layoff. He claimed the Excelsior Handicap while pressing a slow pace, his 13-1 price spiced up the exotic vertical wagers surrounding the Wood Memorial. A game Kodiak Kowboy gallantly ran down Fabulous Strike to annex the Grade I Carter, making it graded stakes wins at all three NYRA tracks and wins in over the last three seasons.


The Wood Memorial was touted as I Want Revenge and Imperial Council versus the rest. Only these two were bet with the rest of the horses cold on the board. After looking closer at the race I picked up a few solid knocks on Imperial Council. A generous poster on paceadvanatge.com pointed out that Imperial Council's action was paddle wheel-like. After watching a few head-on replays of Imperial Council's races I agreed, horses with inefficient action tire going long. Imperial Council was a power toss. When Imperial Council made a complete mess of the paddock I felt confident that he would be off the board and I was able to really get involved in the horizontal wagers. With two power opinions in the Wood, (I Want Revenge was a lock / Imperial Council would be off the board) I was able to obliterate the race vertically and horizontally. (sorry for the redboard) Imperial Council's future is in running at sprint distances. His inefficient action will keep him at distances less than 8 furlongs. As Soon as Shug figures this out the better. For my sake I hope he runs long all year.









Imperial Council's Antics

As anyone can see I Want Revenge was very impressive. He had to overcome breaking five lengths behind the field, running into a trap, running in to a jackpot, he got knocked sideways and had to split horses on two occasions. Even with all these obstacles blocking his access tot he wire he won clear as much the best. I Want Revenge's Wood trip is so eventful that you have to wonder if it took something out of him. My gut says he will be okay. Previous class horses to have nightmares trips like this were Invasor in the 2007 Donn, and Alfeet Alex in the 2005 Derby and Preakness. Both horses came back to win their next starts. Class horses and class people thrive on adversity.









I Want Revenge a picture of composure in the post parade









A poor break for I Want Revenge









Jackpot city for I Want Revenge









I Want Revenge powers through the wall of horses









I Want Revenge clear at the wire









A triumphant return for the most valiant of winners

All pics courtesy of Keith & Tara