Are Synthetic Surfaces Weeding Out The Derby Speed?

Many times the Kentucky Derby has been what I call a "chaos race". Start with a large field then add in an abundance of speed horses and need the lead colts with no hope whatsoever and you have something hot and sultry breaking out on the lead. These heated speed duels on the lead neutralize the quality speed horses, and set the race up for deep closers. Monarchos is a great example and well as Giacomo in 2005. This year is setting up to be a walk in the park on the lead. Looking at the top 20 graded earning list it seems the preponderance of synthetic prep races have stopped the cheap speed horses before they crossed the velvet ropes into the entry box. Almost every horse to emerge from the Kentucky or California preps are devoid of speed. Those lucky enough to prep and possess speed have a marked advantage over their synthetic raced competition.

We can bemoan the effect of synthetic surfaces on racing or we can accept it and profit from it. Smart money chooses to accept the present. In past years California and Keeneland produced very fast colts for the derby, this is not the case this year. There is no Sinister Minister or Brancusi to overheat a speed duel. This year the California preps have yielded a graduating class permeated by closers or horses with a turf pedigree.


Pioneer Of The Nile, the leading candidate from California was judged a turf horse by his former conditioner Bill Mott. Mott started this colt on the turf and he had a successful two year old campaign over the weeds. For his three year old campaign he was sent to Baffert specifically to take advantage of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Now in the biggest race of the year the Empire Maker colt has to cede all advantage and try something that he was deemed not to be his forte. While he and the dozen or so like him are spinning their wheels on the foreign surface they are going to have to deal with dirt kickback. Add in a tactical disadvantage we have a stacked deck against the synthetic derby prep graduates.

The Derby may have produced a "who's who" of Chefs De Race but this years Kentucky based preps (Lanes End, Bluegrass, Lex) have a produced a "who the heck is that" list of Derby candidates. These races over the polytrack at Turfway and Keeneland have produced confounding longshot victories and every colt considered for the Derby out of these races is devoid of speed. The perfect scenario for a wire to wire victory in the Kentucky derby is building.

The horses that stand to benefit are Quality Road, Papa Clem, Friesian Fire and I Want Revenge. This becomes a case of the rich get richer as all four have class and speed. Now they have a tactical advantage as well. All four horses have shown speed along with a rating gear which should further ice any possible speed duel. The only need the lead type even being considered is Todd Pletcher's Join In The Dance.

Quality Road who figures to be the speed of the speed may just benefit the most from the likely pace scenario. Quality Road was very impressive winning the Fountain Of Youth. In the FOY Quality Road outlasted three other quality speed sprinters and drew off to win for fun. On paper the FOY was a speed chaos race. Then Quality Road stretched out and turned back the highly touted and heavily bet Dunkirk in the Florida Derby after being passed at the top of the lane, showing class and gameness. All indicaters except that quarter crack are pointing to Quality Road.

Big Brown Delivers A Big Statement -Tomcito Says Hola

On paper the Florida Derby looked like the most exciting prep yet for the Kentucky Derby. We had the Big Brown express delivery service, the Peruvian Conquistador, the Majestic Aristocrat and a supporting cast of useful colts. The race lived up to the billing. Big Brown delivered an express package arriving to the wire quickly and unscathed. Brown lived up to the hype that Dutrow and Desormeaux had been spreading all week making those two look like horseracing profits.

If Big Brown and his quarter cracks can make it to the first Saturday in May he will surely be the favorite and a formidable force on the front end. The challenge for Dutrow to keep this Big Brown blaster on edge for five long weeks. So much so soon for this Big Brown but he surely has more of that brilliant form available for delivery. There will be many people counting on him to deliver on derby day after this command performance.

The win capped off a memorable day for Dutrow, perhaps a day like that has only been trumped by Mandella's 2003 Breeders Cup quad win day. Dutrow started off the day annexing the Godolphin Mile with Diamond Stripes, moved on to Benny The Bull's Golden Shaheen, and placed himself front and center by introducing the world to the Kentucky Derby favorite. He even won the night cap at Gulfstream after the Florida Derby. Have to give him credit for one of the great days ever in racing. Dutrow like Big Brown is a polarizing figure and everyone has an strong opinion about the man one way or the other.

Tomcito made his much anticipated American debut and ran a promising race. After being outrun early he persevered for third. It was the kind of race that a horse can move forward from, and it was a positive first time experience. The connections must be pleased and hopeful for future success. If there is some massive pace melt down in the derby or Belmont Tomcito is the kind of runner that is poised to pick up the pieces. He could make an impact if the chips fall his way. He is the kind of horse with a long form cycle, he should improve and run many honest races.

The Florida derby completely changed the Derby picture. All of the internet, media and newspaper Derby lists will have to be amended to make way for Big Brown up top. Big Brown's race was like the delivery of a birthday cake with an surprise exotic dancer bursting out when you least expected it. It was thrilling, exciting and something that got the heart racing. Tomcito's race was like a new Latino neighbor coming by to drop off their flan recipe. Tomcito's race was good, you enjoyed meeting the new neighbor but the exotic dancer and the cake completely rocked your world and made the flan seem quite ordinary in every way. Keep in mind that in the future the flan recipe could prove much more useful than the exotic dancer in the cake.

Weekend Derby Prep Action 29MAR

The Florida Derby is the most serious derby prep so far along the trail. $1 million purse is also the largest and certainly the most interesting prep in what has been a uneventful derby trail. The Favorite is Big Brown who is a polarizing animal. People are wither swooning over him or labeling him as a cheap plug that has beaten nobody of consequence. A horse that has so much sway over the thoughts and actions of people must have substance, I think that he runs huge here, especially since he needs the graded earnings for connections that would love nothing more than to go to Louisville on the First Saturday in May.

The other interesting horse is Tomcito whose exploits have been extensively chronicled on websites like this one and others. For a horse that has earned $54K he has received more than his fair share of hype. After reviewing his fast works I think this cat in bag is going to fire out of the bag quickly and show more speed than expected. I have a growing suspicion that the connections will want him close to the pace to get him used to the faster pace of American racing. Close to the pace will be his undoing, this is a one run closer. He makes his big late run next out but I think the connections want the Florida Derby to be a positive introduction to American racing for Tomcito more than a inauspicious introduction.

Fierce Wind on the rail has won at the distance and track and has four really nice works since the Sam Davis. He has the speed to track the pace and the class to win it. He has a legit claim as a win contender.

Then we have Hey Byrn who has been beating up on allowance foes, over the track and distance he faces a huge class test today could be a poor mans fierce wind as he has a similar running style.

Majestic Warrior despite the stellar pedigree has the shown hints that he might be a closing sprinter, but do you really want to write off this grade I winner so fast? A case could be made here for a massive form reversal. I will let him prove it.

I like that the two top contenders in the race have the far outside post and the far inside post. My friends at the Flushing OTB would say that this race has balanced Feng Shui. With that in mind I wager that both power horses hit the frame. I will play both Fierce Wind and Big Brown.

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Tomcito Watch Part IV

Tomcito is entered in the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulf Stream on Saturday 29MAR. The workout tab looks consistent and he was asked for speed in a big 5 furlong blowout 17MAR. The favorite will be #12 Big Brown who is looking to be the first horse to ever win a 9 furlong race at Gulfstream since they reconfigured the track to 9 furlongs a few years ago. Lots of hype with Big Brown and there are more than a few esteemed handicappers who swoon over Big Brown's two blowout wins. I am looking for an improved effort from the regally bred Majestic Warrior who should be a big price.

Tomcito drew well in post four and we should get a clear view on exactly who Tomcito is. I hope he runs well and adds some much needed intrigue to the triple crown trail. Peruvian Jorge Chavez takes the mount and I hope all of Peru tunes in to see their connections do well.

Tomcito Watch Part III

Tomcito worked out as part of his preparation for the $1 million grade I Florida Derby. He worked handily five furlongs in 58 4/5ths, a bullet move. A promising workout was over the Gulfstream dirt course where he will race. The Florida Derby looms on the 29th of March.