Preakness Validation For All

The Preakness has initiated a form turn around for the game of horse racing. All of the key players in the race were validated. Jess Jackson who reportedly paid up to $10 million for Rachel Alexandra validated big money, big ego, last minute purchasers. Rachel Alexandra who was doubted by many handicapping nitwits, was validated as the best three year old in the country, she was sensational. The supposedly fluky derby winner, given less respect than Rodney Dangerfield, unleashed a power run, validating his derby win and proving himself a very nice 3 year old classic winner. Even Tom Durkin with his much maligned derby call delivered a scintillating account of the Preakness validating his position at the top of the American racecaller hierarchy.

Jess Jackson took a huge risk on Rachel Alexandra and it is good for racing that he was rewarded, rather than made a fool. Jackson's success may encourage others with the need for ego validation to get involved in the racing game. Can you imagine Donald Trump droning in the winners circle, "she is the best filly in all of of America, she is like Trump National Golf Club the best golf course in all of Westchester Country New York." While some may resent someone like Jackson throwing around money to position himself at the top, those people are missing a crucial point. It is vital that there is still men like Jackson to invest in the game at the top level. If there were a few more like him the game would resume it's rightful position at the top of the sport hierarchy. Headlines would be generated, buzz would be induced and irresistible competitive races would be made.

Rachel Alexandra was brilliant in the race. The piddly concerns of handicappers concerning her class were unfounded. She handled the class hike, the larger field, the increased pressure and the crowd. She single handedly dominated the race and was clearly a force on the front end. She dominated the results like an alpha-female in charge of a band of rouge bachelors. The closer the race is examined the more impressive her race appears. She cooked every horse within reach of her. Big Drama was defeated before they hit the top of the lane. Friesan Fire was third early and wound up well beaten. Pioneerof was close up early in forth but suffered the worst defeat of his race career and finished11th. Take The Points was another that was close up and finished last. Papa Clem sat right off the pace in the pocket on the rail and was soundly defeated finishing 8 lengths behind her. The horses that rated in 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all ran new beyer number tops. The pace was hot and Rachel controlled all those boys.

Mine That Bird was another who was validated in this race. His win was dismissed as a pure fluke. Many doubted his ability to handle a dry, fast track and the transition to Pimlico. He handled everything quite well and proved his detractors wrong. The son of Birdstone unleashed a power run going into the turn and blew past every horse except the winner. It could be argued that with a better trip he might have won. His derby win was for real, while his Preakness was a loss it still provided sweet vindication for him. Mine That Bird is now respected. He is a very nice horse and has a stout finish to be reckoned with

You want to talk about form reversals , Tom Durkin had a huge form reversal in the Preakness. After Durkin's most disappointing big race call in the derby he delivered a memorable call for the ages in the Preakness. The local caller Rodman at Pimlico is a fine racecaller but listen to both calls of the same race and it is clear who the better caller is. Durkin picked up Mine That Birds power run as it commenced on the far turn, Rodman did not pick the move until The Bird was in the clear past the 1/8th pole. Having Durkin call the races is a wonderful enhancement to the game and his performance validated why he is treasured by so many race fans.

The Preakness was a great race for racing. Many positive stories have emerged from the race along with a sense of excitement. The uninformed articles from the clueless brigade have ceased and articles highlighting racing's authentic, grass roots appeal have emerged by the lot. TV ratings surged and wagering was up an impressive 30% over last years Preakness. Pimlico has eliminated the BYOB policy in the infield which replaced beer guzzling nitwits with real racing fans, accounting for the tremendous spike in wagering. Good riddance to the human filth pit that was the Preakness infield. Not only did the Preakness validate those involved with the game the Preakness validated the game itself.

Are Synthetic Surfaces Weeding Out The Derby Speed?

Many times the Kentucky Derby has been what I call a "chaos race". Start with a large field then add in an abundance of speed horses and need the lead colts with no hope whatsoever and you have something hot and sultry breaking out on the lead. These heated speed duels on the lead neutralize the quality speed horses, and set the race up for deep closers. Monarchos is a great example and well as Giacomo in 2005. This year is setting up to be a walk in the park on the lead. Looking at the top 20 graded earning list it seems the preponderance of synthetic prep races have stopped the cheap speed horses before they crossed the velvet ropes into the entry box. Almost every horse to emerge from the Kentucky or California preps are devoid of speed. Those lucky enough to prep and possess speed have a marked advantage over their synthetic raced competition.

We can bemoan the effect of synthetic surfaces on racing or we can accept it and profit from it. Smart money chooses to accept the present. In past years California and Keeneland produced very fast colts for the derby, this is not the case this year. There is no Sinister Minister or Brancusi to overheat a speed duel. This year the California preps have yielded a graduating class permeated by closers or horses with a turf pedigree.


Pioneer Of The Nile, the leading candidate from California was judged a turf horse by his former conditioner Bill Mott. Mott started this colt on the turf and he had a successful two year old campaign over the weeds. For his three year old campaign he was sent to Baffert specifically to take advantage of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Now in the biggest race of the year the Empire Maker colt has to cede all advantage and try something that he was deemed not to be his forte. While he and the dozen or so like him are spinning their wheels on the foreign surface they are going to have to deal with dirt kickback. Add in a tactical disadvantage we have a stacked deck against the synthetic derby prep graduates.

The Derby may have produced a "who's who" of Chefs De Race but this years Kentucky based preps (Lanes End, Bluegrass, Lex) have a produced a "who the heck is that" list of Derby candidates. These races over the polytrack at Turfway and Keeneland have produced confounding longshot victories and every colt considered for the Derby out of these races is devoid of speed. The perfect scenario for a wire to wire victory in the Kentucky derby is building.

The horses that stand to benefit are Quality Road, Papa Clem, Friesian Fire and I Want Revenge. This becomes a case of the rich get richer as all four have class and speed. Now they have a tactical advantage as well. All four horses have shown speed along with a rating gear which should further ice any possible speed duel. The only need the lead type even being considered is Todd Pletcher's Join In The Dance.

Quality Road who figures to be the speed of the speed may just benefit the most from the likely pace scenario. Quality Road was very impressive winning the Fountain Of Youth. In the FOY Quality Road outlasted three other quality speed sprinters and drew off to win for fun. On paper the FOY was a speed chaos race. Then Quality Road stretched out and turned back the highly touted and heavily bet Dunkirk in the Florida Derby after being passed at the top of the lane, showing class and gameness. All indicaters except that quarter crack are pointing to Quality Road.

Rare Trip To Arkansas/ Play Of The Day

Arkansas Derby GI

As discussed earlier this week Papa Clem is a colt I am anxious to play in the Arkansas derby. First time on dirt Friesan Fire blow his doors off on a sloppy track but he held gamely for place. Don't let the win margin in a slop race fool you, they frequently are won by 10 or more lengths providing a visual illusion of superiority for the winner. Papa Clem ran a nice race in defeat. It looks like the trainer has had Papa at Oaklawn for the last three weeks and he has been working up a storm. He draws a nice inside post for his run style and 2nd time dirt should move him up. If there is any type of inside speed bias Papa is the horse that will benefit the most. I like this horse quite a bit at 6-1 and will play him to win, if Old Fashioned decides to rate it is lights out and the others will not catch Papa Clem.

W #2 Papa Clem

Stats

15 8-1-1
strike rate 53%
cumulative return 57.10
$2 ROI $3.81

Kentucky Derby Futures Round-Up

With less than four weeks to the Kentucky Derby bettors are solidifying opinions. It is becoming more and more clear that I Want Revenge is going to be the clear favorite as we move closer to the race. As more people watch the Wood and listen to Durkin's hysterics I Want Revenge is going to start to build hype. The current Kentucky Derby betting has I Want Revenge listed at 7-2. With the second choice Quality Road not able to train due to a quarter crack it seems like I Want Revenge has opened up daylight on his competition. Quality Road is questionable just to be in the gate, 5-1 on him to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby is a sucker bet. The co-third choice is the lightly raced Dunkirk at 6-1 who was easily turned back by Quality Road. Dunkirk lacks seasoning and is another who is questionable to be in the gate due to a lack of earnings. With new defections showing up by the day Dunkirk does figure to sneak in the race. The other third choice is Friesen Fire who won the Louisiana Derby by a pole, but that was on slop which typically produces disingenuous win margins. Freisen Fire's seven week gap in races is bewildering to me so 6-1 does not interest me at all. The fifth choice at 7-1 is Pioneer Of The Nile who is a turf horse. Without synthetic surfaces this horses would not even be on this list. 7-1 on the Zayat stable runner is another sucker bet. Out of all the short price type horses I Want Revenge Stands Tall, 7-2 is not a bad proposition and you will surely be looking at a shorter price on derby day.

At the other end of the odds spectrum an intriguing longshot is Papa Clem. This colt was stuck out in Wally Wubber World California where his first four races were on all-weather surfaces. He ran very gamely in California and displayed a run style that may translate better to a dirt surface. Papa Clem took his shot on dirt in the sloppy Louisiana Derby and ran okay first time while on a completely foreign surface. He will run in the Arkansas Derby and I suspect he will give a good account of himself there. If you want to grab some value the current 40-1 on Papa Clem is appetizing. His price may drop dramatically after Saturday if he wins or places like I suspect at Oaklawn.

Don't Make It Easier For Horses Like Dunkirk To Stay In The Barn

With only three starts on his record there are legions of people arguing that Churchill should do something to ensure horses like Dunkirk can have access to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. These people are flat out wrong, one hit wonders like Dunkirk should be excluded from the Derby if they do not have the requisite graded earnings, the conditioning or the record of success. Racing needs horses to race, not stay in the barn.

Dunkirk and his possible exclusion from the derby is often linked to Mafaaz. Mafaaz won the Kempton challenge and while he looks overmatched in the derby some argue and he will exclude a live contender. Another frequent complaint is the pair of Godolphin horses who will likely enter the Kentucky derby who won their owners money in Dubai. This international presence in America's most famous race is great for the game. Horses like Mafaaz, Desert Party and Regal Ransom provide intrigue and provide access to overseas growth markets. Horses like Dunkirk with their lack of races and injury prone nature are a cancer on the game.


One of the chief things that plagues racing is horses like Dunkirk. We have graded stakes horses that do not race, they stay in the barn and only come out for an afternoon run once in a while when they are in absolutely pristine form. This is terrible for the game and robs the game of intrigue and the ability to follow horses. Those in charge should do nothing to accommodate horses that face the consequences of a lack of racing. Typically a horse can stay in the barn with complete impunity. The Kentucky Derby is one the rare situations where a horse like Dunkirk's connections are punished for the lack of racing, let the punishment stand if it holds.

Look at horses like Ghostzapper from 2004 and his brilliant four race campaign. Ghostzapper did nothing in the afternoon from September 2003 to July 2004 and then raced every 6 weeks or so in short fields up until his breeders cup classic win at Lone Star. While he may of been brilliant in those four races it was not exactly conducive to building a sports fan base. Four race campaigns disengage the public from big time stakes races and should be discouraged whenever possible. The graded stakes earning list for the derby is one of those few instances.


Who can forget Easy Goer's 1989 three year old campaign? 11 races, 3 wins over older routers in a grade I and a total of 8 graded wins. Despite his extraordinary season Easy Goer lost the BC classic to a horse that was laid up for most of the summer while Easy Goer won Grade I after Grade I. Ever since that race of decade in the 89' BC classic horses have been managed more judiciously, races leading up to the breeders cup have been shortened and horses have followed the example of Sunday Silence taking the summer off rather than the complete campaign of Easy Goer. While it may be good for the connections to pick conservative spots like this, it is terrible for the game.

While the Kempton challenge could be considered a gimmick, it is an attempt to build interest in the Kentucky Derby. There is a huge untapped international market and the presence of this one horse could do wonders for increasing the interest in the derby and American racing in general. People in London bookie shops will have a greater interest in the Kentucky Derby and maybe even American casual fans will be intrigued by a foreign dark horse. The masses need big and easy story lines to follow, something that they can grab and run with. Will Mafaaz keep out Dunkirk? I don't think he will but if he does it will send the message that your big horses need to race.

A horse like Dunkirk if he was to succeed in the derby would set a precedent where many trainers would try to go into the triple crown off of one prep race. Look at the success of the ill fated Barbaro. At the time going into the derby on five weeks rest was taboo, but Barbaro's success has emboldened trainers like Larry Jones to take Friesian Fire off a 7 week rest into the derby this year. A derby success by Dunkirk would lead to a copy-cat horses in later years that race with even less bottom conditioning. What happens to horses with a lack of a bottom? They get injured and they are whisked away as soon as we begin to admire them.


The current system of graded stakes earnings favors horses that have been racing and earning over a period of time. This is a solid system. It is not a perfect system and surely anomalies like the $1 million Delta Jackpot Skew the graded earnings list but at least horses that race are favored and not one hit wonders.