A Sea Of Slop

For the first time since 2003 the Belmont Stakes card was contested in the mud. Bad weather and longshots won the day. Only one of the six betting favorites won and it was Trappe Shot in convincing fashion. Otherwise, if you bet against the public, you made out well for the day.

The Acorn was a prelude of what was to come with the odds-on Turbulent Descent going down in defeat to It's Tricky, who was coming off of a wide journey in the Florida Oaks against the classy R Heat Lightning. Turbulent Descent was three lengths behind the winner and ten lengths in front of the show runner. It should be noted the the dirt strip had a pronounced speed bias just from the first glance at the full charts as well.


The True North was all Trappe Shot, chances are there will be a race between Big Drama and Trappe Shot in the near future at Saratoga. Below is the last point in the race that anyone was close to the winner.


Justin Phillip was up against the class of his division for the first four months of the year facing Mucho Macho Man, Vengeful Wildcat, Adios Charlie, and Astrology in graded stakes action. So far the Jerome has been an effective key race with Astrology finishing third in the Preakness and Adios Charlie getting nipped in the Peter Pan. This race was beaten up a little bit with the scratches of the royally bred Bold Warrior and Little Drama, reducing the field to five runners.


The two grade one turf races had two things in common, the winner was no worse than first at any point in the race and they were both tote board busting winners. C.S. Silk had a career resume that had a place finish in grade one company last year at Keeneland chasing home the dominant Proviso, yesterday she took advantage of a paceless race and wired the field.



Mission Approved is an incredible story when you look at his record, his most recent effort was July 18, 2010 where he almost upset Gio Ponti and before that mostly placings in NY bred stakes company with a win against $40,000 claimers to his credit. Gio Ponti has had a bad history on less than firm turf, he has lost twice as a favorite to two massive longshots. Before today, he lost the 2009 Turf Classic to Interpatation after holding a slim lead in the stretch on a soft surface.


Speed ruled the mile and a half races for the weekend at Belmont. Ruler On Ice was up close to Shackleford early and had enough left in reserve to hold off Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed to cap off a longshot laden series of three year old stakes races. Animal Kingdom encountered a bad trip from the starting bell and never got closer than fourth after a sustained drive from the half mile pole to the eighth pole. It remains to be seen how much the triple crown has taken out of the main players as well. Shackleford gave his all and was done in the stretch with just enough out finish Animal Kingdom. Mucho Macho Man was a non factor from the mile marker to the finish line finishing 24 1/4 lengths behind the upset winner.

Belmont Stakes Power Cap

Nice card at Belmont today. Hopefully the rain does not decimate the races and most importantly all horses and riders go back to their barns safely. This is the one day of the year when the racetrack crowd in downstate New York is not dominated by old degenerates. It is nice to see some people from outside the typical demographic enjoy the races.

McLaughlin's loaded gun
It looks like trainer McLaughlin can plan to make a more than one trip to the winners circle on this card. He has three likely winners; none of them are going to be great prices but they could be a safe heaven in a long program. In race one Marine Officer -dam was NY stakes winner Asti- should crush this field. She has class and a class turf horse like this usually has little problem winning off a layoff. In race four Rattlesnake Bridge has a rare five furlong work-McLaughlin usually works them 4 furlongs when they work 5 furlongs that signals readiness- this colt just towers over this field. Race 7 will be Trappe Shot's unveiling as top sprinter in the country. Like Rattlesnake Bridge this colt has a five furlong work signaling readiness.

Just A Game Stakes
This looks like a wide open race. No real standout here but Much Rejoicing is a filly that could win the"Just A Game" at a generous price. Race lacks pace which plays into Much Rejoicing's wheelhouse-this filly is used to pressing fast paces in sprints. Look at how this filly has done so much in such little time. Races on dirt, over pol track, over turf, then trips to Florida, New York, Canada. Then she completes her education with run over wet tracks, fast tracks and then turf. She has been liberally educated in the racing arts. She has shown that she has class and can run over broken bottles if needed. Today is the day she can apply that broad education towards a trip to the winners circle. Hopefully we can go for the ride alongside her.

Manhattan Stakes
Standout horse here in Prince Will I Am. Bet with him and you could feel like a king. The cutback from those marathon races in Florida should have this horse stout and strong in the homestretch. The Prince loves New York with a grade one win over this very track last year along with a win at the Spa. Race sets up nice for him. A cornerstone selection to build your castle around.

Belmont Stakes
Wide open race this year that looks interesting. Sometimes this race can be an afterthought. The early wagering has the public hammering down on Master of Hounds. The American raceing public has had this affection for Aiden O'Brien and the horses he ships from Ireland to run stateside. Unfortunately for the public Mr. O'Brien has not returned the favor with no wins in the last five years. Is this the horse to break the streak? Maybe it is better to let that long streak of futility to continue with someone else's money.

My longshot pet pick is Santiva. He is bred for this long trip and has run well in all of his dirt races. I like the preparation he has received taking five weeks off to prepare for this race from the derby. He is going to be my key horse that will be used with others in multi race wagers and trifectas.

Prime Cut is another horse here that will run well and surprise many with his talents of mobility.

Since Santiva is no lock with will also use Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Prime Cut and money burner O'Brien's colt Master Of Hounds.

Belmont Stakes Longshot Selection

The Belmont Stakes is often a race were the public hones on a Derby and Preakness winners only to be surprised when a new shooter upsets the field. Just in the last ten years six bona fide longshots have made Belmont Stakes betting a true bonanza for those picking the winner. Those that selected Sarava at 70-1, Da Tara at 38-1, Birdstone at 36-1 or even Drosselmeyer at 13-1 were rewarded handsomely. The Belmont is a race for longshots. 12 furlongs is an unusual distance that yields unexpected results.

This year the surprise horse looks like Santiva. Santiva beat our Preakness pick Astrology(who ran a credible third) in the Kentucky Jockey Club in a game performance. Santiva was squeezed like a lemon between horses. Instead of yielding lemon juice Santiva gamely responded by winning. This horse ran a valiant sixth in the derby while never really having any room. His race on the poly in the Bluegrass -a bizarre surface where races can be ignored- is a clear throwout. The trainer Eddie Kenneally is a top shelf trainer and Santiva is bred to win going long by sire Giants Causeway. A smooth mover who should be close to the pace Santiva is going to run great at around 15-1.

Durkin Out as Triple Crown Announcer

Race-caller Tom Durkin has stepped down from his triple crown announcing gig. It was a decision that Durkin considered for months. "It’s a tough professional decision, but a great personal one." For the horse racing nation this a tough pill to swallow. Durkin carries around a book with thousands of phrases - it is this dedication and hard work that turns talent into brilliance. If I hear scintillating one more time at the Breeders Cup I am going to have to personally fed-ex a Roget's thesaurus to California. A triple crown replacement has already been named for Durkin; Larry Collmus of Suffolk Down/Monmouth/Gulfstream fame has been tabbed.

This move from Durkin to Collmus is a huge step down. We go from the Tom "Cadillac" Durkin to Larry "Honda Accord" Collmus. Like the Honda Accord Larry is a reliable sort but unfortunately both the Accord and Larry are forgettable. Larry lacks the ability to convey any sort of drama like Tom Durkin can. Collmus is not a bad caller -he is actually one of the best -but he has the unfortunate fate of following the greatest announcer since the invention of the microphone.

Tom Durkin has a background in theater; there is not one racecaller in the country that can project the drama of the race into his racecall like Durkin can. Others can scream, they can yell, or they can recite their fill in the blank racecalls but nobody can get close to the variety and feel for the moment that Tom Durkin brought to big-event racing. Tom is in a class by himself and will be missed by many.

2010 Belmont Stakes recap

Six stakes races including the third jewel of the triple crown were on tap and 45,243 were on hand to witness the day's events. The attendance number was the lightest number since 1996 when 40,797 showed up according to the NY Daily News. However there was a total handle of $74 million for the day of racing, that seems like decent handle. The next supercard of racing that NYRA will host is the Travers stakes day card where there will be five or six stakes races on the same card.

There was a person dressed up as a horse patrolling the grounds throughout the day, I saw this costumed person during Memorial day weekend as well. I guess NYRA has a new mascot.

A Stray umbrella provided some entertainment too, apparently a stiff wind knocked an umbrella

off of a table somewhere near the top of the stretch and the wind kept it moving down the stretch. The masses were cheering its stretch run on and it would have passed the finish line if it wasn't for a buzzkill security guard. On to more serious matters now.

The Woody Stephens

This race was formerly known as the Riva Ridge Stakes up until 2000 or 2001. D'Funnybone sat off a hotly contested pace set by Eightyfiveinafifty and Discreetly Mine and made the most of his trip by winning in an effortless 3 1/4 length victory. The charts from this race indicated that the six furlong time in this race was 1:09 2/5 and the final time was 1:22 3/5, the older sprinters ran 1:09 3/5 for the True North Handicap later on.

The Just A Game Stakes

Proviso won by a half length after sitting off of Speak Easy Gal early. Phola ran a good race closing into slow fractions.

The True North Handicap

Custom for Carlos was a big scratch out of this race and it reflected on the tote board, Bribon went off a tepid 5/2 favorite and rewarded his backers with a $7.50 win payout. Snapshot had no excuse this time out after sitting a perfect trip and not capitalizing on it.

The Acorn Stakes

This race kicks off the Triple Tiara sponored by Betfair and TVG, the three races in this series are the Acorn, Coaching Club American Oaks, and Alabama. The original Triple Tiara was the Acorn, Mother Goose, and Coaching Club American Oaks. The CCA Oaks used to be 1 1/2 miles, then it was shortened to 1 1/4 miles, and now it is 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga.

The wide open field of three year old fillies produced a huge win payout with Champagne d'Oro paying $81 to win beating out the 2/1 favorite Amen Hallelujah by a half length. Tanda was circling the field late, came up short in third.

The Manhattan Handicap

All Winchester had to do was run at 1 1/4 miles to get another stakes win, this was his first stakes win since his victory in the 2008 Secretariat. Gio Ponti had to wait for room and it cost him the race. The Clement exacta returned $147 with the longshot of his two runners winning.

The Belmont Stakes

Drosselmeyer was not on any live pick six tickets making for a 900,000+ carryover for Wednesday. For the second time in the triple crown this year a jockey change made all the difference with Mike Smith getting the mount instead of Kent Desormeaux. Mike Smith now has a win in each leg of the triple crown Giacomo (2005 Derby), Prarie Bayou (1993 Preakness), and this year's Belmont.

Belmont Stakes~Play Of The Day

Belmont Park Race 11


Interactif is sitting on a break out race. This guy has run well at a host of tracks from distances from 5 furlongs to a mile 1 1/8th. Dirt, turf and all-weather this guy has seen every surface. The only track he didn't run at was Keeneland but I can give him a pass for that; that is a quirky surface. I think he stalks the pace, takes over and keeps going. He tries hard every time, I think he passes the test of a champion tomorrow.

While Ice Box does seems to be a likely candidate to hit the board, I think his lack of lead changing catches up to him and he falls short of the win.

Win #12 Interactif

stats
12 3-2-1
strike rate 25%
cumulative return $58.80
$2 ROI $4.90
average winner $19.60

New Theme Song For The Belmont

After supplanting 1980's song "Sidewalks Of New York" with Sinatra's New York New York now Sinatra has been vanquished for JZ's "Empire State Of Mind". This is one small steps in the effort to modernize the Belmont stakes.

NYRA marketing director Neema Ghazi clearly is looking to direct the Belmont Stakes to a 21st century theme for New York City. We all know that the racetrack is a place that can be disconnected from the latest in modern culture. Music is a known way to connect to the latest trends. The public is conditioned to listening to recorded music and when they hear this song they will feel like Belmont is a familiar place where they are used to consuming and having fun. Sort of like when Pavlov rang his bell and the dogs salivated NYRA marketing is hoping that the younger generation will "salivate for fun" at Belmont when they hear a song like this that is endlessly played on the radio. The old songs said grandma is ready to make another exacta box.


"Empire State Of Mind" celebrates what modern New York means to the world. Materialism, intense self interest and the jettisoning of the Judea-christian moral code. This song covers all three themes as JZ brags about his riches from narcotic sales. He moves on to boast about his Lexus and restaurant and then moves on to commenting on how we treat treat female visitors "Mommy took a bus trip and now she got her bust out, Everybody ride her, just like a bus route" Since we were just bragging about our material possessions and treatment of women why not comment on religion? "Hail Mary to the city your a Virgin, And Jesus can't save you life starts when the church ends." Reagrdless of the content this song is played endlessly on the radio and it will conect with a younger demographic not often seen at New York racetracks.

It is good that NYRA has selected a song that Neema Ghazi says is "quintessential 21st century theme song for New York City". Now that the Belmont has a song that will connect with young people hopefully the marketing cues will get them feeling happy and in the mood to spend at Belmont Park.

Belmont Early Thoughts

My early thoughts on the Belmont is that Icebox is not going to win. It looks like there is a virtual consensus that Ice Box will have to fall down to lose the Belmont. The Belmont could be a lucrative betting race with an odds-on chalk with only a small chance to win.

The foundation of my opinion is based on Ice Box's issues with lead changes. Horses that can not change leads usually can not go 12 furlongs. It looks like Ice Box was on the wrong lead in both the Florida and Kentucky derby. The Belmont is still three weeks away but it looks like someone with speed is going to have a huge edge with the favorite coming from off the pace. When the real running begins Icebox will be changing gears while the winner kicks away.

Ice Box makes up big ground on the wrong lead

Belmont Stakes Play Of The Day

Belmont Stakes Race 11

Charitable man is a clear stand out here in the Belmont Stakes. He has a pace, form and horse for the course edge. He has the set up to make a generous run He should be right on the pace and kick away from the outclassed Zito longshot. By the time the others start their moves Charitable Man will be out of reach. He will be my single in all multi wagers.

Win #6 Charitable Man

2009 Stats
25 11-3-1
strike rate 44%
cumulative return 81.60
$2 ROI $3.26

Power Cap Power Price Special

From Power Cap

Two long shots that have a big chance are Hello Broadway in the Woody Stephens and Funny Moon in the Acorn. Both horses have a shot to light up the tote and should be used on all pick 3s and pick 4s. Hello Broadway ran off like a crazy horse last out with the blinkers-on. It was an impressive display of speed combined with a total lack of control. If Tagg has found a way to harness that speed we could be looking at a huge turn around in the Woody Stephens. Funny Moon looked tremendous last out and is working great for the sharp Clemente barn. She is a horse for course and a distance master.

Belmont Was Not a Slow Tiring Track On Belmont Stakes Day

There are a few articles out there saying that Belmont was a slow or a cuppy track on Saturday. The writer that wrote that is either incompetent or purposely deceiving his audience. First of all speed won every dirt race expect for the True North and the times were fast all day. Iavarone called the track a beach, it was not. My notes reflect that this was the biggest speed favoring track of the meet and I will be looking to wager on some of the closers that were comprimised by the speed bias when they run back.

The water pressure issues that effected Elmont and the upper floors of the grandstand, did not effect track maintenance. The track was watered after each and every race by not one but two trucks, the drivers of the water trucks were even honking there horns at the crowd every time they drove past, so it was hard to miss them. The track is not a valid excuse for Big Brown.

Race 1 was a N1X six furlong sprint and it was won wire to wire in 108 and 4/5ths. Speed was 1-2

Race 2 was a maiden special weight and it was run in a fast time of 116 and 3/5ths for 6 1/2 furlongs. The winner and place horse engaged in a heated duel with the pacesetter being passed mid-stretch and then re-rallying to claim the lead again for the win. Speed was 1-2

Race 4 was a N2X allowance over a mile in 134 and 2/5ths, not a slow time. The winner tracked a fast pace and drew off.

Race 5 was the slowest race on the undercard. The statebreds went 6 1/2 panels in 117 3/5ths. 20-1 winner was close up and had back class winning a stakes race as a 2 year old.

Race 6 Benny the Bull was the only deep closer that won all day on the dirt course and completed the 6 furlongs in 109 flat under 123 lbs. Not a slow time.

Race 8 Three year old fillies completed the mile in 134 and 2/5ths, still fast and the winner pressed the pace. Speed was once again 1-2.

Race 9 The 108 and 3 fractions of the Woody Stevens could not have happened on a beach. The winner scored wire to wire. The outclassed and overmatched speed duel loser hung on for third, perhaps the clearest illustration of the speed bias.

Race 11 The Belmont was won in wire to wire fashion. Another wire to wire effort.

Race 13, 116 and 4 for statebreds is a good time and speed ran 1-2 all the way around.

Too Many Kent Desormeaux Bashers

Big Brown faded in the Belmont due to his lack of training for the race. The ride had little to nothing to due with his finishing last. There has been some criticism that Desormeaux cost Big Borwn the race, that is simply not true. It was the training that was compromised by quarter crack left him completely unprepared to tackle the test of a champion.

So what should have Kent done? Instead of trying to rate Big Brown he could have tried plan b. Plan B would have been to take the very rank Brown and hook a 39-1 shot so they could duel like Smarty Jones dueled in his failed triple crown attempt. We all know how much people praise Stewy Elliot for his ride in the 2004 Belmont, but it seems like everyone wanted Desormeaux to redux Elliot's enterprising front end steal attempt. Do you really want to hook a need the lead horse in a 12 furlong race? How smart would have that been?

Big Brown was so rank that it would have been a helluva duel with Da' Tara. 23 flat, 46 flat and 111 neck and neck, nip and tuck. Either way rating or dueling, Big Brown was fading on the turn and up the track, his destiny was written in stone. Brown did not have his mind or the gas in the tank to see out the trip in the Belmont. He was handled too conservatively due to his sore hoof and it showed in the performance. His lack of training and lack of activity left him with too much nervous energy and it completely took him out of his game. Nobody could have won on Big Brown in the Belmont.

Desultory Brown

The wheels fell off the Big Brown express today. As good as he looked in the Derby and Preakness Big Brown was just plain terrible today. Fractious in the detention barn, nervous in the paddock, rank in the early part of the race, he did not run his race today. The boastful Dutrow who dared the racing gods, received his punishment for his gross arrogance. When confidence grows into arrogance the punishment is usually swift and stout and Dutrow's arrogance was punished today. . Dutrow provided great theater with his antics and no doubt Dutrow's antics made his loss was very satisfying to many people. Before there Derby we wrote these words.

Usually one can get away with this attitude for only so long before the game gives out a maximum dose of bad racing luck. Try going to the track with this attitude and making wagers, talk about a humbling experience. This type of talk is very polarizing, I see that Big Brown can go one of two ways. He is either going to run a fricken' hole in the wind and drop jaws or the horse is going to be up the track. If this horse does not win, he will not hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown's performance is going to be something extraordinary or something commonly dull. When this horse gets beat it is going to be ugly.

Team Big Brown The Classiest Connections In The Belmont

They had a press conference today in Times Square for the Belmont Stakes. The connections of only two horses bothered to show up. Those two horses were Big Brown and Macho Again. Where was everyone else? Not very classy of the connections to disrespect a classic race. Must be challenging to conduct a press conference if the principals do not show up.

While Big Brown may not have scared away all comers for the Belmont, only one other horse was represented at the press conference.

Belmont Weather Forecast

The temperatures are starting to heat up here in New York. After a nice cool May the temps are finally increasing into the 80's. Belmont day may flirt with 90 degrees and it will likely be humid. Rain is not forecast for Saturday but there is some unsettled weather looming off to the west that will bring showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully the weather moves through and it is a nice clear day with a fast track.

Tomcito Out Of Belmont

Tomcito has been declared out of the Belmont by his connections. According to trainer Dante Zanelli. Zanelli said the son of Street Cry was suffering from a “reaction” but did not specify what caused it. “It’s very depressing,” he said.

Maybe they should find an allowance race for Tomcito so he can get a win over here in the states. Looking at his stride he does not look like the a stakes horse in the US. They need to find an easier spot.

IEAH & Team Big Brown Donating Part Of Purse To Injured Police Officer On Long Island

From NYRA Press Office

The owners of Triple Crown hopeful Big Brown Friday announced they would donate a portion of the colt’s earnings from the $1 million Belmont Stakes on June 7 to help a establish a scholarship fund for the young son of a Nassau County police officer who was critically injured in the line of duty.

On May 18, a drunken driver with a suspended license slammed into Kenneth Baribault’s police car during a traffic stop the Long Island Expressway. Baribault had pulled over a sport utility vehicle on suspicion of drunken driving when the driver of a silver Mercedes, whom police said was drunk, plowed into the back of the police cruiser,. The impact pushed the police car into the SUV and lifted it six feet off the ground, according to witnesses.

Baribault remains in a coma at Nassau County Medical Center, having undergone surgery to relieve swelling to his brain.

In a news conference at Belmont Park, IEAH Stable owners Michael Iavarone and Richard Schiavo, both of Long Island, pledged to donate a substantial portion of whatever Big Brown earns in the final leg of racing’s Triple Crown toward college expenses for Baribault’s six-year-old son, Chris.

“In time like this it is imperative we come together,” said Iavarone. “We want to stand up and make something good happen. It’s not just a financial thing – we want to be there for the family.”

Nassau County Executive Thomas R. Suozzi and Police Commissioner Lawrence W. Mulvey, both of whom spoke in front of the statue of 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat in Belmont Park’s paddock, praised the owners for their generosity.

“We are all pulling for Big Brown in the Belmont here on Long Island, but we are also pulling for Big Blue -- Kenny Baribault,” said Suozzi. “This means the family has one less thing to worry about as he recovers. It’s one less burden in his family’s life.”

Big Brown, an impressive winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, is the big favorite to win the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed swept all three races in 1978. He will be ridden in the race by Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux, who suffered a skull fracture in 1990 when he was kicked in the head by a trailing horse following a spill.

“This is very close to home,” said Desormeaux. “I was five seconds away from being in an induced coma when I was trampled by a horse. My prayers are with the family.”

Big Brown’s trainer, Richard Dutrow Jr., said the officer’s family has a standing invitation to come visit Big Brown in his barn at Belmont Park.

“No one has asked that I know of, but they are welcome,” he said.

Big Brown went to the track at 5:30 a.m. Friday and galloped for a mile and a half, said his regular exercise rider, Michelle Nevin.

“He went for a walk through the paddock – it’s beautiful day for horses,” she said.

The colt, undefeated in his first five races, is scheduled to breeze a week from Saturday, weather permitting.

Welcoming The Japanese And Betting On Them

The Japanese racing fans are on their way to Belmont to see Casino Drive raid an American Classic. Thousands of them will arrive at JFK with their cameras, their hope and bags of yen to wager on Casino Drive. Their presence at Belmont is welcome and I hope the Japanese have a wonderful time in New York at Belmont Park. It is always nice to see interesting new faces at the championship track, where on a day to day basis it is the same die-hards over and over again. While the Japanese will likely feel welcome at Belmont, I doubt NYRA will be able to pull off hiring some Japanese tellers as this animal just does not exist in the local job market. At this point NYRA is lucky to get English speaking tellers. So the Japanese will have to make due with the tellers we deal with on a daily basis, perhaps they could figure out the SAM machines. The Japanese will have to deal with a communication gap.

The Japanese fans are here for one reason and they will bet the sashimi off Casino drive depressing his odds similar to Deep Impact at the Arc . Can you say 50,000 yen to win on number one? However the foreign pari-mutuel raiders will focus on the win pool exclusively as there is no teller in the house that will understand the Japanese words for pick 4 or pick 3, nor will the Japanese will be able to work such a complicated wager with unknown horses at a foreign place. Exploit this communication gap and go exotic if you want to play the exotic horse. If you want to bet Casino Drive focus on the exotics like the pick 3 and pick 4, he will be a better price in those pools than the win pool. Value will be your friend and value at the track is better than honour.

Casino Drive Impressive In Peter Pan

Between the lack of experience, the lack of seasoning, the long ship to a foreign country and the layoff that was a very impressive win for Casino Drive. Casino drive is a serious horse, possibly as good or better than his classic winning siblings. The horse proved me wrong. This son of Better Than Honour will make the Belmont a very intriguing race, I hope that JAL reservations is ringing off the hook with Japanese race fans booking the NRT-JFK non-stop to see the Belmont. I hope the Japanese Elvis Yutaka Take take one of these NRT-JFK seats and ships in for the Belmont to ride.