Tale of the Tape, Uncle Mo vs. Stay Thirsty

After this past weekend where Mike Repole’s two stars represented his stable very well, it seems like all the talk is about Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. Andy Beyer made it the subject of his Wednesday piece in the Daily Racing Form and Stay Thirsty was the cover story on the Saratoga Special on the same day. Pletcher mentioned in passing after the events of the weekend his intention of not having his two champions not being in the same race during the fall. It only seems fair to match these two up in the way boxers are sized up before a prizefight in the tale of the tape.

Major NY Stakes wins
Uncle Mo: Champagne Stakes
Stay Thirsty: Gotham, Jim Dandy, and Travers
Edge: Thirsty, he is truly NY’s horse. It should be noted due to my general laziness that I am shortening up the names to Mo and Thirsty from this point forward.

Eclipse Awards
Mo: King of the Juvenile colts
Thirsty: Zero
Edge: Mo, there is no such thing as a cheap shot in this venue.

Starts in the 2011 Triple Crown
Mo: Zero
Thirsty: Two
Edge: Thirsty, what goes around comes around.

Powercap Nickname
Mo: Mr. Softee
Thirsty: No nickname given
Edge: Mo, to jest is to care. In hindsight we should have given a nickname to every starter in the Triple Crown series this year. Live and learn.

Respective Performances on August 27th
Mo: Photo finish loss after a five-month layoff with noted medical issues
Thirsty: Won the Travers
Edge: Push, if Mo had the benefit of a race before the King’s Bishop and a bit more in the way of works before the month of July he may have won that race.

Going Forward
Mo: Pennsylvania Derby? Vosburgh? Jockey Club Gold Cup? Who knows?
Thirsty: The main goal in all likeliness in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Edge: Thirsty, a defined course is better than being adrift at sea with no direction.

Beyer Speed Figure
Mo: 106
Thirsty: 101
Edge: Mo, even in defeat he puts up a lot of heat. He probably is a better one-turn runner than a router as well.

This is getting tiresome, after seven rounds of conjecture it is all tied up at 3-3 with one push. Well, this didn’t solve anything at all. Might as well have them run against each other at some point in the near future.

End of the season shuffle

Another grade one race for three year old colts and yet another winner to join the crowded club for 2011. With the Travers having the distinction of being the last grade one on the books exclusively for the sophomore class and no one creating some distance from the competition, it will be a mad scramble to the end of the year to decide the championships. In this case chaos is good. Uncle Mo did not win the King’s Bishop and if anything may be back for a shot at redemption at four years old, seeing how his three-year-old season has turned into a wash. Shackleford was less than a length away from clinching the division title back on July 31st and now is back in a tie with the rest of the division. Stay Thristy is the resurgent force of the division with two recent wins and was a close second in the Belmont. With the magic number set at two grade one wins, the whole lot is stuck at one.

The parity trend is not isolated to the three-year-old males, the filly counterparts went from a division that was It’s Tricky’s to capture back into a group that any able bodied filly can win if they get on a hot streak. Turbulent Descent probably benefits the most from last week’s upheaval, as she is a multiple graded stakes winner this year. She may only need the rest of the division to trade off victories or loses to the older fillies in the fall stakes races and a Breeders’ Cup win in order to clinch. It’s Tricky remains closer to the honors than the rest of the fillies and a win against older fillies would likely grab the title.

Tizway is the default leader of the older males with wins in the Met Mile and Whitney, one more grade one and he gets the trophy with little resistance. The rest of the elder colts and geldings in that group are a jumbled mess and wins by a combination of any of them probably won’t do much to uproot the current leader.

The horse of the year championship is a four-way race at this point. Cape Blanco has two major victories stateside and a third one could get him the nod. Tizway will probably need one or two more major victories. Then there is the predicament of Havre De Grace and Blind Luck.

These two fillies have faced off against each other throughout various points in the past two years and have traded decisions with a narrow margin of victory almost every time. Havre De Grace is on target for the Woodward this upcoming Saturday at Saratoga and Havre De Grace has two races left on the schedule for the remainder of the season. If Havre De Grace wins against the males and it is a taxing effort like the one Rachel Alexandra put forth in her conquest of this race the important question is do you put her away for the year or squeeze one more race out of her for the year? Blink Luck could run the table and easily take the Horse of the Year honors away for Havre De Grace.

It is unprecedented that a filly or mare has won the Horse of the Year honors for three straight seasons and it may happen this year with the way the division races have shaped up. While horses trading decisions for the past eight months is not the most thrilling of things to follow throughout the year, it does provide for an interesting finish to a season filled with parity.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Stay Thirsty

First Impression: His Florida Derby was nothing great, but he beat the Wood Memorial winner in the Gotham.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: There has been a long and storied history of lesser known stable-mates outrunning their more famous counterparts in the Derby. Real Quiet won instead of Indian Charlie, Thunder Gulch was victorious over Timber Country, and Sir Barton got to the wire first instead of Billy Kelly. Who am I kidding, instead of beating around the bush on this one I might as well come out and say it. BET THE HOME EQUITY LOAN ON THIS ONE, HAVE WE NOT SEEN THIS OUTCOME BEFORE? LOOK ABOVE, THAT IS THE BEST HISTORY STATISTIC YOU WILL SEE LEADING TO THIS DERBY. DOSAGE? MORE LIKE NODOZ, THE ABOVE STATISTIC IS ONE THAT YOU CAN TURN INTO YOUR OWN PERSONAL ATM.

The case against: Only two races with his most recent being a poor showing and got his season started in early March, sounds slightly familiar.

The winner of the Gotham as not had a great recent history at all. Awesome Act was the “wise guy” horse in the Derby last year and that did not end well. I Want Revenge won the Wood Memorial and hasn’t been the same since his injury leading up to the Derby. The last horse that went on to any significance after their win in the Gotham was Red Bullet back in 2000, when he stunned the racing world by defeating Fusaichi Pegasus in the Preakness. Stay Thristy looked good in his layoff comeback victory with his first victory around two turns and shaking off the rust of a long break. Third off the layoff with some foundation and the recent poor effort will certainly offer some value.

The Pletcher Triple

New York's first big day of the year had Todd Pletcher winning three out of the four stakes carded, basically picking up where he left off last year. Pletcher has taken up the throne that Lukas vacated in the late 90's. Got a stakes race? Pletcher has a horse for that race. Fancy Suits? Check. Well heeled clients with deep pockets? Check. Gray hair? Check. All Pletcher is missing is a pair of shades, he probably already has the Bentley.

Fred Capossela Stakes

The winner faced Soldat in his previous start back in September, Sensational Slam looked no worse for the wear from that layoff. He sat off the pace and won with ease.


Tom Fool Handicap

The first half of the Repole Stable chalk double was captured by Calibrachoa, who could have been had for $40,000 back in November. He has now reeled off three straight stakes victories with the major sprint stakes races on the horizon. It will be interesting to see how this horse stands up to the class of the division from this point on.

Gotham Stakes

The public backed Stay Thirsty and they were not disappointed. This horse probably had a tougher comeback race than what Uncle Mo will encounter considering the circumstances. Stay Thirsty had not won past six furlongs and November layoff was what kept him from being a prohibitive favorite. Chances are the connections of the Gotham winner will ship this horse to Hawthorne or another track with a big purse and a thin field in order to pad the graded stakes earnings.