"You will never be a winner at poker until you can lay down a winning hand"~Poker Axiom
All week I have been chomping at the bit to play Big Drama in the West Virginia Derby. We had the lone speed, the tremendous weight break and the short field all playing to his advantage. Then we had that fact that the field is filled with no-hope race fillers and the tactically disadvantaged Mine That Bird who figures to be 3-5 or less in here. At the height of the Bag Drama fever I even considered tapping into a savings account to increase the investment on Big Drama. It all seemed too good to be true for Big Drama who should be somewhere between 8-5 and 2-1 but would be 1-2 on my personal oddsline.
Then a stranger weighed in poured cold water on my Big Drama crush. The very generous Amateur Capper has shed some light on Big Drama's form cycle. You have to love it when a capper has the stones to weigh in on these races before they spring latch and Amateur Capper provides a compelling argument. A.C. provides solid reasons why Big Drama may have some health/form issues. He has given me reason to pause. As far as capping goes this is as good as it gets.
However after thinking it over I am going to forge ahead with playing Big Drama in the West Virgina Derby. The bet will be spread across the pick3, late daily double and win pool. His four workouts in the last few weeks smooth over any lingering issues that A.C. has touched on. This is either going to be a case of my first instinct being correct or an example of a player not being able to pass on what looks like winning hand despite hints of looming disaster.
West Virgina Derby Win #4 Big Drama
Stats
32 13-4-1
strike rate 41%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $3.10
