Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

27 August 2008

Breeder's Cup Advance Look

Two months out from the Breeders Cup and the storyline is taking shape. With the switch to the new Pro-Ride surface Europeans will be lured into races traditionally dominated by the Americans like the Classic or Distaff(Ladies Classic). For a great run down of all the contenders check out this sharp resource that provides tremendous information on Breeders Cup Betting. Bodog has a tremendous amount of information on all of the Breeders Cup contenders and is the place where savvy handicappers make their plays.

This year is wide open if defending champ Curlin does not enter. IEAH stable has many legit chances throughout the Breeder's Cup card, however the likely favorite for the race Big Brown is a complete and total toss. This will be a great race to find some value with a favorite that only has a small chance of winning.
Top Competitors

Go Between- Confirmed synthetic lover, his win in the Pacific Classic as the favorite validated his synthetic surface form.

Henrythenavigator- undefeated in Europe this year and has won races gamely. Check out his last win in the Sussex stakes. Giants Causeway who scored in the Arc and just missed in the 2000 classic won the Sussex stakes for the Ballydoyle yard.

Colonel John- Confirmed distance ability and gameness in Travers score. Already is a confirmed synthetic lover as the facile winner of the Santa Anita derby.

Breeders Cup Turf
Year after year this race is dominated by European shippers. This year the local west coast turf contingent is very weak. The leading local horse Spring House does not class up at all. All of the top contenders ship in from Europe.

Archipenko- Ran well in the Arlington Million in defeat. Has the right run style for the ultra firm, ultra tight Santa Anita course. A force if he ships over.

Duke Of Marmalade-This guy has developed into a force for the Ballydoyle Yard. The Duke is undefeated this year. He confirmed his top form at 12 furlongs taking the King George at Ascot by an astounding 9 lengths. He recently added the Group I Juddmonte International to his tally, his fifth Group I score of the year. Needs to hold top form for two more months. The Arc may take the starch out of him. Follow him closely.

Soldier Of Fortune-O'Briens other horse for the turf will be live if he makes it in.

Breeder's Cup Mile

Kip Deville
- has been sensational in his two starts and has conformed form at Santa Anita taking the Kilroe mile there in 2007. This Oklahoma bred dominates this usually wide open race.

Whatsthescript- Local horse won the Del Mar mile the other day. Usually needs pace to make his run and there is typically great pace in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Legit contender with a hometown advantage.

Out Of Control- Frankel's Stud TNT import is solid at a mile on the turf. This one will beat Big Brown in the Monmouth Stakes on 13SEP. You heard it here first. He has won in California. p[']

TVG Sprint

Benny The Bull has been phenomenal this year and his retirement leaves a gapping void in the division. This promises to be a wide open race. The other power horse in the division Midnight Lute will stay away from the rubber and jelly cable for synthetic hater Baffert. I would lean towards the local California horses in this race.

In Summation-
loves synthetic and may be a price after a few tough defeats. Top pick at a price.

Rebellion- Close second in Pat O'Brien at Del Mar. His deep closing style may work well as the sprint sometimes completely falls apart, especially on synthetic.

Lucky Island- East coast division leader will be the favorite in the Forego on Saturday at Saratoga. Won the Tom Fool over a suspect field. He can rate and is from a top barn. The Pro-Ride surface would be his first race over synthetic.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice article Greg!

I think Street Boss is the top dog in the Sprint, and I believe Casino Drive is still under consideration for the Classic.