Mother Goose Report

There were heavy rain showers while driving through the Bronx on the way to Elmont for the Mother Goose Stakes Stakes at Belmont. The day might have been ruined but it was not, it just served to pad the rain stats as it has rained here 24 of the last 26 days. Only by luck those rain showers never reached Belmont, not only were the conditions dry but the day was lovely. A cool northerly wind combined with low humidity, and sunny skies made for perfect racing conditions for man and beast. If you keep notes on how the track played the main track seemed to favor speed with fast times all day and frontrunners did well. The crowd was reported at 13,352 persons, which is a small crowd relative to the tremendous capacity of the facility. However compared to a usual weekend crowd the crowd was a larger. What the numbers do not show is that the crowd was overflowing with enthusiasm and had a different demographic than the typical mix of middle age to elderly men.










Naughty New Yorker

The first stakes race of the day was the Ed Fratello Stakes. Favored Wishful Tomcat tracked frontrunning Fortunate Prospect, took over at the top of the lane, winning the mile and a 16th test in 140 and 2/5ths. Looking at Wishful Tomcat in the paddock, he is a stoutly built, tall, good looking individual. He looked best on paper and impressive in the paddock. One look at him and it was clear that not only was he the favorite to win but Wishful Tomcat knew he was going to win. The horse had presence. He could come back and win the Suburban next week if Dutrow chooses to enter him. Wishful Tomcat is a horse with razor sharp form.









Naughty New Yorker

Old campaigner Naughty New York was in this field too. After all these years he still wears that full cup blinker over his right eye. He was second off the layoff after a year without a race. The 7 year old New York bred was a bit overweight in the paddock and raced like he needed the race as he finished last. I'm sure the connections would love to get him over the million dollar earnings plateau which he has flirted with since 2007. He is only about $15K away from 1 million but like a gambler trying to make the rent money if he does not find his old form he may not get there.









Paddock Crowd Mother Goose Stakes

“We were very pleased with the crowd today, especially the number of girls and women,” said Hal Handel, NYRA executive vice president and COO. This was a crowd where you can take your young daughter too and not worry about her being out of place. There were thousands of new faces and as one of the old faces I know who all the regulars are. These people were not track regulars. There were dozens of couples, there were teenage girls and adolescent girls with their families. I even talked to a guy who flew up from New Orleans to see Rachel run. This was a crowd of fans not just the hardcore packs of gamblers and handicappers.










Paddock Crowd Rachel Alexandra

It may be easy to dismiss these women as taking up space and not contributing their fair share to the game. Not only did they receive free admission but I did not see them hitting the windows with $100 exacta boxes. However their contribution is not to the handle but to the track aesthetic and of the ambiance of the facility. Having tons of women at the track changes the game. Old men cursing at a television screens suddenly feel like they are acting like crass animals and they tone down their public tirades of profanity. The hecklers keep their outbursts to themselves. What was once grimy becomes a classy event that could be attended by all. Taming racing's sleazy reputation is a good start to working the game back into the mainstream. Embellish the few thousand foul mouthed degenerates in the crowd with pretty girls and their admirers and soon the track becomes an inviting place. Suddenly demographic groups that are extinct at Belmont find that it is a good time. The potential for growth is opened up. The track demographic aquires some diversity outside of old and profane. Whatever NYRA did on Saturday was successful and is one of the building blocks to growing the game. I was bearish on this promotion, but I am happy to be wrong. The Rachel Alexandra promotion was a success. New fans showed up by the thousands and it was the most thrilling sporting event of the day.


Cheers In The Paddock For Rachel

Rachel Alexandra crushed her two competitors in the Mother Goose winning by 19 lengths, exceeding expectations. She rated behind the blistering pace and then drew off impressively as the rider pleased. It was pleasing result for the thousands of racing fans in attendance. The Preakness winner delivered strong validation. This type of crowd pleasing result is never a given in this tough game. Many hearts have been broken in Belmont's stretch. If Smarty Jones could have delivered like this in the 2004 Belmont I think a few thousand new racing fans would have been minted that day. Hopefully some new fans were created yesterday.










All Alone At The Wire Rachel Alexandra

Rachel is an athletic filly with a long neck and a serious eye. She looks like she is tough and not one to be trifled with. When Curlin raced at Belmont last year Jess Jackson spent time with Curlin in his stall, this time Jess Jackson gave Rachel Alexandra her space standing close by instead of in the stall. Like Curlin, Alexandra did not walk the paddock, her connections decided to have her spend the entire time she was in the paddock in her stall. Her manner was calm, controlled and confident. When Borel mounted her her ears pricked and she was on her toes. She received a round of applause in the paddock and then another warm reception during the post parade. When she returned to the winners circle she received a standing ovation. This type of affection is only reserved for racing royalty and she received the full royal treatment.










Beautiful Belmont Park After A Successful Day

The day was a success for Rachel Alexandra, the connections, the fans and for NYRA. This filly has the potential to bring people out to the track. She is a superstar and a real crowdpleaser. Every sports/racefan should make it a point to get out and see her while she is out there campaigning.

Photo Credit to Joe Burns

Dear Abigail, (The Category Killer Track)

Commenter Abigail made an excellent point in the Rachel Alexandra marketing post regarding how most people show up for triple crown racing for the party and not the horses. This crowd could really care less about the horses. They are there to hang out, get drunk and have a good time. Their good time y does not include watching or betting on horse racing. Any bets made are just ancillary entertainment. These people will not come back until next year when the TV starts talking about the triple crown all over again.


Marketing a special filly mostly falls on deaf ears. Most people are just not sharp enough to appreciate equine excellence or acknowledge it when they see it. These days when it comes to horses people don't know a throat latch from a trifecta box. The thing that people respond to is controversy and large groups of people all doing the same thing. People move in herds like Bison, cherishing the safety of the group. The challenge before racing is to create a real buzz, to create a watering hole to lure the herd. Racing needs to create excitement to drown out the mundane gossip about ballgames and ballplayers on sports AM radio. Racing needs get the masses talking about their single in Saturday's pick 4 instead of who is A-Rod dating now that he is single.

The only marketing that will get the job done is an idea posted by a commenter named "Cholly" in a previous post. The idea was about a "category killer" track that had 100K allowance races, 10% takeout with huge wagering pools and huge fields. Add in a revolutionary tote system based on Betfair that allows players to lay horses and racing could generate the necessary buzz to lure the herd of masses away from the malls and ballpark clip joints. This would be racing at its best and wagering on a grand scale. These would be mutuel pools that dominate the industry, perhaps even putting smaller tracks out of business and concentrating the public's fascination on the mega-meet.


Once the ball starts rolling with the masses their attention tends to accumulate on one subject making that entity a runaway success. Racing is just hanging on with a small but loyal niche audience. There is untapped potential for racing to be a top pleasure activity. When the gambling action filled with intrigue, the racing so interesting, masses of people would gravitate towards it. For this to happen the idea would have to be something completely new and completely out of the box. The marketing idea would have to be fraught with risk, something to surprise people and change the way people think about racing. The "category killer" track looms as something to bring racing back into the mainstream.

Preaching To The Choir

NYRA is pulling out all the stops to market Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose. There was a time when this type of marketing effort held promise but these promotions have disappointed year after year. The mainstream public has proven that time after time that outside of the hardcore niche audience they are completely disinterested with non-triple crown racing. The local population around Belmont would rather be at the mall sending more dollars to the Chinese treasury than betting on hard and confusing horse races. If it is not a mainstream media triple crown race a free admission or pink rubber band is not enough to lure the boys or the girls to the paddock.


Last year NYRA pulled out all the stops with Curlin at Saratoga just like NYRA is pulling out all the stops with Rachel. Instead of a huge attendance surge for Curlin theere was disapointment. In fact there was a Saturday last year without a graded stakes race, people lamented that NYRA that ruined squandered a great Saturday in a prime part of the meet. Suprisingly that afterthought of a racecard had more attenadnace than Curlin's heavily marketed run in the Woodward. The people have proven that racing is not on their radar I am expecting less that 10K for Belmont on Saturday. However it will be 10K of the best sports fans in the world, hopefully I am wrong, the masses show up in droves leaving the malls and the ballpark clip joints empty.

Smart Play Of The Day

Belmont Race 7

This is a almost completely paceless race except for the overmatched Dziki. The winner of the race will sit right off of Dziki and that filly is Smart Tiffany. Smart Tiffany ran a hidden good race last out, she got shuffled back on the inside then ran into a switch in the lane. With her tactical speed and the rail post she will be able to track Dziki, find separation at the top of the lane and prove hard to catch late.

Win #1 Smart Tiffany

Stats

26 11-3-1
strike rate 43%
cumulative return 81.60
$2 ROI $3.14

P.S. Throw in a bonus Dziki/Tiffany exacta box to cover the chance that Dziki really gets loose and holds on.

Final Pick 6 Ticket

Final pick 6 ticket after accounting for the surface, the scratches and the winds of luck. The scratches have been tallied and the final ticket is in. The single is Quonata in race 5, hoping she can reproduce the form from her last race, if she does she wins.

pick 6 5,6 / 13 / 1,5,6,10 / 5 / 1,6,10 / 1,7,10 = $144

Pick-6 Revisted

According to NYRA the races are going to be on the turf today except for the 5th race. The different surface demands a new ticket and a larger budget.

pick 6 1,6 / 9,13 / 1,6,10 / 5,7 / 9,11 / 1,10 = $192

Belmont Pick 6 Carryover-Basement Apt Play

Nothing like turning a few bucks and an opinion into a house down payment. We will try to do that with the Belmont pick 6 carryover. With horse racing online you can create your house down payment and finally kiss your landlord and his basement apartment goodbye.

The big question going into the card is the surface. With all of the rain the last week(three posts last week with monsoon in the title)I am going to gamble(that's a surprise) that we are off the turf and a fast main track.

Pick 6 ticket 1,5,6 / 9,13 / 7,9,10,11 / 5,7 / 10 / 12 =$96 play

Race 4 - Bottom level open maiden claimer lacks speed. Going to lean on lightly raced three year olds in here. My two picks are Saint Midas and the first timer Scholarly Pursuit. Karakorum may be a user from the rail as the lone speed may just help her pull off the upset.

Race 5 - Assuming off the turf, there are two users in here. No Rhyme or Reason is off the layoff and broke the maiden against 40K open. A bit reluctantly I will cover the undefeated Quonata who won first out last out.

Race 6 - A tricky race and one that could change dramatically with scratches. I am considering 4 horses and they are 7,9,10,11.

Race 7 - Smoking Sarah won last out in a battle. A tough race that will affect her form, the favorite will come up empty here. The two users are Crazy Thing on the cutback and Stephen's Rhythm's who closed well last time and should run better on a fast track.

Race 8 - Assuming off the turf Silvercup Baby looks tough in here. This could be our first single in the sequence. She has found a nice rating gear this year and should love the distance of 7 furlongs. I may use Summer Palace two who is second off layoff/first off the claim and has a great record at Big Sandy.

Race 9 - Assuming off the turf once again. This looks like Super Child's race to lose. She figures to be the front end boss and the drop should get the Empire Maker filly home and the powercap faithful out of their basement apartments.

Monsoons Lead To Two Day Carryover At Belmont

A weekend filled with rain and unlikely results resulted in a two day carryover of $154.9K for Wednesday's Belmont pick 6. The chief reason being the 1-9 upset of Cocoa Beach in the Floral Park stakes which not only drove the carryover but resulted in a bridgejumper taking the plunge. Of the $217,905 in the place pool, $198,846 was wagered on Cocoa Beach. A $20 bet on all in the place pool returned $591. Betting against irrational bridgejumpers is not only the best bet in racing but the best investment since man departed the barter system as the primary method of trade. More on the pick 6 caryover Wednesday morning.

Another Day Of Monsoons

The monsoon season continues today at Belmont. Rains battered the track all night and continue with two hours to post. Cocoa Beach is the favorite in the featured Floral Park stakes and will shed blinkers but will race with snorkel on. The five day forecast has rain everyday this week. If you were hoping to see something green this week you better rent the Muppet Movie and check out Kermit because there will be no turf this week at Belmont.

Surviving The Monsoon Season

Last week I flew from JFK to LAX and the continent was covered in clouds from Long Island to the Pacific with the only break in the cloud cover over the southwestern desert. All of this moisture has manifested itself in massive amounts of rain that have pounded the northeast for the last month. The temps have been cool and Al Gore is starting to look like an overweight internet inventor with a carbon footprint the size of the Belmont infield. The effect on racing is that the Belmont cards have been pulverized. Even a handicapper that is borderline possessed by racing have found that the scratch marred racing programs are uninteresting. Add in the a triple crown hangover and it may be a good time to catch up with a good book or update up your resume.

$96 ticket grosses $969,345

The lone winning ticket on Saturday's Belmont pick six was purchased by a Youbet.com customer, who constructed a $96 ticket that resulted in a return of $969,345.

The winning formula was a 1x2x2x2x3x2 sequence that began with a single of Fabulous Strike ($3.80) in the True North. The bettor went two deep in the Just a Game with the winner Diamondrella ($21.20) and Raw Silk. The ticket went two deep in the Woody Stephens with Munnings ($9) and Hull; two deep in the Acorn with Gabby's Golden Gal ($28.40) and Livin Lovin; used three horses in the Manhattan, Gio Ponti ($9.20), Cosmonaut, and Wesley; and went two deep in the Belmont with Summer Bird ($25.80) and Charitable Man.- DRF.COM

Channing Hill Moves Tack To New Jersey

After two months in California Channing Hill has moved his tack back east. This time he will stop short of New York and ride the summer meet at Monmouth. His new agent will be Jim Riccio.

Belmont Stakes Play Of The Day

Belmont Stakes Race 11

Charitable man is a clear stand out here in the Belmont Stakes. He has a pace, form and horse for the course edge. He has the set up to make a generous run He should be right on the pace and kick away from the outclassed Zito longshot. By the time the others start their moves Charitable Man will be out of reach. He will be my single in all multi wagers.

Win #6 Charitable Man

2009 Stats
25 11-3-1
strike rate 44%
cumulative return 81.60
$2 ROI $3.26

Power Cap Power Price Special

From Power Cap

Two long shots that have a big chance are Hello Broadway in the Woody Stephens and Funny Moon in the Acorn. Both horses have a shot to light up the tote and should be used on all pick 3s and pick 4s. Hello Broadway ran off like a crazy horse last out with the blinkers-on. It was an impressive display of speed combined with a total lack of control. If Tagg has found a way to harness that speed we could be looking at a huge turn around in the Woody Stephens. Funny Moon looked tremendous last out and is working great for the sharp Clemente barn. She is a horse for course and a distance master.

Brooklyn Cap Try III

If at first you don't succeed try, try again. This the third time Rising Moon has been pointed to the Brooklyn but the first year he made the entry box. Last year he was nominated but was not entered. He couldn't make the race in 2007 either after winning the prep for the Brooklyn over 2003 Derby hero Funny Cide. You have to give Dutrow credit for sticking with the horse and he finally made the race on the third try. After a long layoff he returned last out looking a bit overweight and wearing two aluminum pads. Some could look at this as a negative, I look at it as room for improvement. Surprisingly he ran well off that long layoff and gave graded winner Dry Martini all he could handle in the lane. That race may set him up for today's Brooklyn Handicap. The track is sure to be sloppy with heavy rains in the forecast all day. If Rising Moon races today and is not listed with aluminum pads he looks like a live price in the 12 furlong Brooklyn.

Going to feature the Moon in the Brooklyn/ Belmont daily double which will be expressed in multiple tickets.

cold punch 9 / 6

man punch 7,9 / 6

shadow boxer 7,9 / 1,4,6,10

Racing Gaining Appeal As Breeding Game Loses Its Allure

Frank from California brings up an excellent point in his comments under the Commish post from earlier this week.

The whole problem revolves around the good horses being retired to soon. In other sports you have the same headliners year after year. Fans can't wait to see the favorite in action,
Racing, it has to re-invent itself every yesr. You remember John Henry, had a big following, was a household name. Why, how long did he race, and win. You seen the following Curlin was attracting -- then gone!
The high powers of racing are to stupid to realize, or, understand what the fan wants. Their only thought is money in their own pocket. There has been blame put in every area but the right one. Synthetic tracks, medications, standardization, they all miss the mark. Actually they have been created to take the focus off the real problem, early retirement. The people at the top are the one's killing racing through their own greed, and stupidity. You start out with a wrong premise -- synthetic tracks, medications, standardization --- you wind up with wrong answers and conclusions.
Frank Lancelotti
California

Frank is unquestionably on the money when he says that fast tracking stakes to the breeding shed have diminished the appeal of horse racing. Smarty Jones was an absolute powerhouse for the game but his time was too short to make a lasting impact. Where some people divert from reality is blaming selfish owners or thinking that some mighty commissioner type could do something about this. A commissioner would be impotent in the realm of dictating horse retirement in an economic climate of a highly lucrative breeding game.

This is not a micro-control issue, it is a macro-economic self interest issue. There is no commissioner or league office that could dictate terms to an owner. What kind of society would allow a commissioner or tyrannical government to force owners to act against their own self interest for the collective good of the game? Hopefully not the United States. While the major ball sport leagues are dealing with a few dozen owners racing is made up of thousands if not tens of thousands of owners. These owners have a right to their self interest and are free to do what is best for their personal self interest. It is a testament to the game that it has survived two decades of owners self interest being in direct opposition to what is in the games collective best interest. Colt after colt retired early, robbing the game of stars and story lines. You may not realize it yet but the era of the breeding tail wagging the racing tail is over.

Now that the economic bubble has burst and the dollar is actively being debased the breeding game has lost much of its economic appeal. Marginal stakes winners that could have had a successful niche at stud will no longer find success. Stud fees are dropping and foal totals are down. A change that would taken a racing commissioner decades to accomplish has now quickly become reality on the winds of changing times. It is time for racing to carpe diem. A strengthened position will yield dividends.


Everyone should be bullish on the racing game as it is now more attractive to keep that top colt racing through the four year old season than in any other time in the last twenty years. Stakes racing on TV is trouncing ball sport playoff games. The market for stud horses is saturated and is in retreat. Racing is one brilliant colt or filly away from capturing the imagination of the masses. If that colt, filly or gelding remains in training for more than one season we could find the game on the S.I. cover frequently and discussed at the water cooler. Ball sports have peaked. There is a growing backlash against high ticket prices. Racing is an attractive economic option is these times. With relatively inexpensive admission cost and potential for gambling fun racing can look forward to growth in the next few years while ball sports and their tired formulas fail. A perfect storm of favorable economic conditions combined with a little bit of luck is all racing needs to cycle back to the mainstream.

03JUN09 Play Of The Day

Belmont Race 8

If the 4-1 morning line is anything close to the live odds on Solo Piano she is a play in Wednesday's 8th race at Belmont. She should be able to comfortably play her tune on the front end with very little pressure as every other filly or mare in the field is a deep closer. The vulnerable favorite Blitzen Too returns from surgery and a lengthy layoff. Last time Piano had to deal with other front running types like Fix You and Funny Moon, there are no such types in Wednesday's heat. Piano races second off the layoff and I am sure she wasn't all out to win last time as she conceded to the dominant 3-5 favorite. Solo Piano should have learned from the lesson last time and will be ready to roll tomorrow and dominate on the front end.

2009 Stats
24 10-3-1
strike rate 42%
cumulative return 73.70
$2 ROI $3.07

Racing Does Not Need A Commissioner

Racing's greatest strength is that it does not have a national commissioner. Every other sports league has the same format, uses the same market research and same approach to lure the same groups of masses to buy their t-shirts and plunk down a few hundred to sit and watch an AV show at one of its games. Racing is the only diverse kid on the block, it is a different type of game, with a distinctive yet authentic appeal. Racing should not try to emulate sports leagues like the NFL or NBA or MLB. These sports leagued peaked in the 1990's and have began their decline. Kids are no longer interested in Baseball much anymore, and as a game it will greatly reduce in popularity over the next generation. Instead of copying a tired formula racing should do what it has always done, but do it better. Let the market forces at work downsize the number of tracks in operation, there is too much racing and most of it is forgettable. Right size, form new racing circuits and accentuate the positives of a great game. Racing's authentic appeal has stood the test of time, we could be one or two years away from a tremendous renaissance, spurred by a return to all things authentic and racing's internet advantage.

This diversification of ideas and management styles keeps the game fresh and surprisingly strong when the death of racing was long ago expected. A national commissioner of racing would have the game controlled by some over educated, under experienced bore, who would employ well worn marketing techniques to all tracks. Racing would expose itself to the same affliction that the banking industry is suffering. Too much consolidation and too many banks all doing the same exact thing, using the same risk models killed banking. Banking was better off when there were hundreds of banks all doing different things. The competition is working for tracks like Keeneland, NYRA and Tampa. These tracks have improved their product in recent years and surged forward past tracks that are stuck in a rut. Without diversity of management news ideas are stifled under the weight of me-too think.


Racing is a real game and not a master planned, referee controlled, TV commercial vehicle. Racing is different and different is a good survival technique. In real estate terms racing is like an aging urban neighborhood. Horse racing is old, filled with history, with well built brownstones that have stood the test of time. The masses stay away do the rough conditions and the bitter degenerates found on the corners there. However one persons slum is another persons opportunity. A cosmopolitan capitol like Rome could become a backwater is a few generations and an aging urban neighborhood has potential to become the next hot area. Life works in cycles. Racing has the potential to expand as it has a steady and permanent revenue source in wagering and racing is just north of Excitinsvillle.


Sports like the NFL or NBA are master planned neighborhoods in a Sunbelt Cul-De-Sac borefest. People are leaving these suburban master planned communities in droves. Like a master planned community the action in TV balls sports are contrived, phony and shallow. Master planned areas are so 1980's. Racing has the authentic appeal to attract people when they are sick of the phony action, when the horns prompting them to cheer no longer work and when they become tired of sportscasters telling them what to think. When the days of the master planned community in the suburbs fell out of vogue a former working class area like Williamsburg Brooklyn was there to take advantage of the stream of young hipsters looking for an authentic experience. Racing could be there too when sports fans tire of the phony master planned sports experience.

Where I am from in Brooklyn was a working class European neighborhood in 1960 then after some government intervention coupled with cheap suburban housing the working class neighborhood was suddenly a burnt out wasteland in 1977. After about 20 years of drugging, whoring, and robbing this former wasteland is now a hot area attracting trust-fund hipsters to experience the authentic energy of an old-school urban environment. Bushwick is a clear example of a turnaround, racing has the potential to have a similar turnaround.

Racing has the same authentic appeal of an older neighborhood in any of the great Northern hemisphere cities. Times are always changing and life works in cycles. If a wasteland can become the next hot neighborhood, racing can be the next hot sport. Racing's time is coming around again, and the worst thing it could do is to try and re-model the game around a master planned community that is suddenly going out of style, complete with a commissioner, mandatory races and trumped up inauthentic excitement. Racing needs to keep its authentic appeal and trim some of its weaker content. Racing has, is and will continue to take advantage of the internet. The internet is great for racing. The investment that Twinspires has made in the twinspires.com website has been impressive. Between internet wagering, internet past performances and internet replays, following the horses has become a seamless experience with tremendous amounts of information at your fingertips. Racing works better on the internet than any other sport.


What racing has to do is right size. The prime issue in American racing is quantity. There is too much racing. The preponderance of slot machine racetracks is weakening the game. Horses are racing but nobody cares and few people are betting on these races. These mundane, slot machine revenue distribution vehicles are pulling horses away from racetracks that support real racing. Real racing is a card full of horses that people want to watch and want to bet on. Real racing is an event, not a slot machine revenue distribution vehicle. These slots fueled races are like model homes that sit idle, subsidized by slot machines they pull residents from the vital area of town. If this continues soon racing will look like Detroit. If the slot tracks survive and cherished facilities like Pimlico or Hollywood have to close we will have to deal with it. The market forces will handle right sizing the game better than a commissioner could ever dream of. It is better to have a healthy game than a game on life support filled with disease ridden tracks.


Racing in the mid-Atlantic needs to organize, a circuit should be formed from Delaware south to Virginia. Perhaps Twin Spires owned Arlington, Fairgrounds and Churchill could work their way into becoming a circuit. Perhaps the three slot tracks in Pennsylvania could become a circuit as well. Finley expands on many of these points. They are building yet another track in New Mexico to take advantage of slot revenues, this is terrible news as it should mark the end of Texas tracks like Lone Star and Sam Houston. Who thought that when Presque Isle opened a few years ago that it would diminish Churchill?


The diversity of management styles of the different tracks and governmental agencies running racing ensures competition between tracks and a steady flow of new ideas. Racing is just a lucky horse away from catching fire once again. Unfortunately like in Brooklyn in the 1970's government intervention is stifling the renaissance but we can be sure that racing will have its time in the limelight soon enough.