Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

18 November 2009

Entering The Nuclear Winter~ Play Of the Day

We are transitioning into the nuclear winter portion of the New York racing annum. Those left standing post-B.C. are the most dedicated sort. This is the time of the year when the racing can be monotonous -- in between all of the gray skies and frigid breezes there are nuggets of gold just waiting to be mined.

P.J. Campo has ran this beaten claimer condition "N3L or 3YO" for two years at Aqueduct. For the first few years the public struggled with the condition and we were able to find a nice edge on the races run in this condition. This type of race is a sweet spot for the handicapper that understands race conditions and would like to wager on a race that has the "stacked deck" of many easy tosses with just one or two contenders.

Aqueduct Race 9

Exhibit A is Geno Green. He could be a textbook example of the power horse that is going to win this beaten claimer condition time after time all winter. 4+ wins for a three year old going against a field of 4,5 or 6 YO's with only 2 wins. Once the public figures this out - they will soon enough- the price on the Geno Greens of Aqueduct will all be of the odds-on variety.

Geno Green looks like a solid rock to work around in this race. The Sedlacek barn would have to have rocks in their head to run One Lucky Date in this race; they will likely scratch for Thursday's race leaving Geno Green the dominant and likely lone speed. Geno Green is dropping off a win; this could raise some red flags for some but my vetting of the Repole Stable indicates that this is a highly positive move. What we really like is that Geno is in for the three year old condition while all others except for Jaystone are in for the N3L condition.

Jaystone may be value at 20-1 but he does not look like much competition for Geno Green. This leaves Geno Green as a "metal thing on the door that keeps that bad guys out" (I hate the L-word) type favorite. The kind of favorite to build plays around that are especially reliable in "nuclear winter" Aqueduct racing. We aim to be alive in the pick 4 with Geno singled at the tail end.

Stats (no crooked accounting here)
51 18-7-5
strike rate 35%
cumulative return 143.20
$2 ROI $2.81


Anonymous said...

Nice call on the 'L' word, LOL...Cice

G. C. said...

I tried my best to stay away from the dreaded l-word but perhaps alluding to it caused us some trouble here. Geno Green got away well enough, set the pace clear and turned for home with the lead. However the old veteran Samyn On The Green was looking to make his claim as the real "Boss Green" on pick-up mount Triple Honor. After turning for home with a lead Geno Green was overhauled in the stretch by Samyn On The Green; it looked hopeless for Geno as he was beaten while being pressed on the rail. It looked like it would be another play of the day loser. However in the third paragraph here we talked about the significant class edge that Geno Green held here and that edge expressed itself in the heart and determination mustered by Geno Green as he rallied from a position of defeat and won the race in an absolutely stirring "ding dong" stretch duel. The Yankees could win 27 more World Series' but those slow and monotonous games are never going to be as exciting as an event like Aqueduct race nine won by Geno Green.

52 19-7-5
strike rate 37%
cumulative return 148.40
$2 ROI $2.85


SaratogaSpa said...

once again Mr. Capper makes the call with authority!

G. C. said...

Thanks for the kind words Cice and Saratoga Spa.

Cice: Do you still participate on the NY forum?

Anonymous said...

Yes Samyn! I only post when congratulating someone or when I have the L word. Keep up the good work my friend...Cice