Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

26 August 2010

Time to paint a canoe!

Image via blog.timesunion.com
This is the type of weekend that reminds me of why I became a racing fan. Any time there is a major stakes race there is bound to be good racing surrounding the main event, one does not need to look further than the Triple Crown dates or Breeders Cup two day event for proof of this. The amount of great betting opportunities that transpire on these type of days is double or triple what you would find on any other racing day.
The only thing worse than getting a bad trip from a jockey is getting no trip, Cherokee Queen had a bad start and lost her rider in her last race. Standing next to someone who bet the riderless horse for the entire race really broadens your vocabulary of swear words in a short amount of time. If you are looking for a price horse in the Ballston Spa then I would give this one a shot, she was defeated by Proviso by less than two lengths in the Just A Game two starts back.
About a week ago in the MSG telecast of the Alabama, one of the NYRA handicappers was doing a piece on the upcoming stakes action and they previewed the Victory Ride. They mentioned that Pica Slew was a possibility for this race, the entries were drawn and she is no where to be found in this race other than the running lines. This race is a dart board race without a horse like Pica Slew entered, from first look Rapport may be an over bet runner in this spot based on her morning line and connections. She is zero for four on dirt with her best race being a nearly six length defeat in her most recent effort.
The Ballerina served as the hangover stakes race that followed the Travers super card in recent years, they moved this race to Travers day last year and the Personal Ensign was moved to Sunday from Friday. Last year Music Note beat a very good field that included Indian Blessing and Informed Decision, Informed Decision returns to try her luck again a year older and no worse for the wear. She is showing the same form that she had last year on her way to the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint championship and this is her favorite distance. Jessica is Back is returning from her cutback victory in the Princess Rooney, another horse who relished the cutback one same day was Mambo Meister, he returned to run unsuccessfully on August 8 in a grade one sprint stakes.
Round two for D'Funnybone and Discreetly Mine in the King's Bishop, Discreetly Mine has rejuvenated his career since moving back to sprint races and his last race was a very fast race. Either D'Funnybone has hit a wall or his last race was an aberrant performance, he lost as a very heavy favorite in the Carry Back to horses that he would have mopped up the floor with if he ran to form. Chances are these two runners will be hard to separate on the tote at short odds, Bulldogger ran a very fast race over a dull track last out and if he can handle the route like tendencies of a seven furlong race he will be a tough foe to defeat.
Saturday's main event is the Travers and the absence of division leader Lookin At Lucky casts a large enough shadow that eleven are going to line up for the winner's share of the million dollar purse. A win by anyone other than Super Saver practically clinches the three year old eclipse award for Lookin At Lucky. The Jim Dandy may end up being a key race, Stormy's Majesty was far back in the Jim Dandy and won the Albany recently.
On Sunday Rachel Alexandra will go 1 1/4 miles for the first time in what likely will be a litmus test for her chances in the Breeders Cup Classic. There is two ways to look at her prospects going the classic distance, she will handle this test with ease or her best distance is 1 1/8 miles and she will lose. Chances are she will be a massive favorite in this spot based on recent speed figures and reputation, she is not facing lightweights here though. Life At Ten and Miss Singhsix both ran at the 10 furlong distance last out and get a marginal weight break on Sunday.
Rachel Alexandra's 2010 form is not as good as her 2009 form after close scrutiny. Her Fair Grounds debut is throwout based on the fact they tried rushing her back as an effort to get her ready for a race against Zenyatta that never materialized. In the La Troienne stakes she was defeated by Unrivaled Belle who since that race has lost two straight stakes as a heavy favorite, one of the loses being to Life At Ten in the Ogden Phipps. Her dominating win in the Fleur De Lis was at the same distance and surface as her twenty length score in the Kentucky Oaks, and her win in the Lady's Secret should have been by more against that group. All that being said she will probably win by a dozen after I tried finding any knocks against her recent resume.

No comments: