Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

07 June 2011

Belmont Stakes Longshot Selection

The Belmont Stakes is often a race were the public hones on a Derby and Preakness winners only to be surprised when a new shooter upsets the field. Just in the last ten years six bona fide longshots have made Belmont Stakes betting a true bonanza for those picking the winner. Those that selected Sarava at 70-1, Da Tara at 38-1, Birdstone at 36-1 or even Drosselmeyer at 13-1 were rewarded handsomely. The Belmont is a race for longshots. 12 furlongs is an unusual distance that yields unexpected results.

This year the surprise horse looks like Santiva. Santiva beat our Preakness pick Astrology(who ran a credible third) in the Kentucky Jockey Club in a game performance. Santiva was squeezed like a lemon between horses. Instead of yielding lemon juice Santiva gamely responded by winning. This horse ran a valiant sixth in the derby while never really having any room. His race on the poly in the Bluegrass -a bizarre surface where races can be ignored- is a clear throwout. The trainer Eddie Kenneally is a top shelf trainer and Santiva is bred to win going long by sire Giants Causeway. A smooth mover who should be close to the pace Santiva is going to run great at around 15-1.


Anonymous said...

I agree, if you want some good reading, look at the full chart for the Bluegrass. It is very interesting in terms of the chart caller comments. Makes that race a complete throw out. He is fit, fresh, and will be a price. Breeding says he can get the distance and he has the tactical speed to lay 3 or 4, which is a winning Belmont profile

Brian Appleton said...

I'm all over Santiva as the best longshot, he looks like a big positive in the Belmont.