Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

29 March 2008

Weekend Derby Prep Action 29MAR

The Florida Derby is the most serious derby prep so far along the trail. $1 million purse is also the largest and certainly the most interesting prep in what has been a uneventful derby trail. The Favorite is Big Brown who is a polarizing animal. People are wither swooning over him or labeling him as a cheap plug that has beaten nobody of consequence. A horse that has so much sway over the thoughts and actions of people must have substance, I think that he runs huge here, especially since he needs the graded earnings for connections that would love nothing more than to go to Louisville on the First Saturday in May.

The other interesting horse is Tomcito whose exploits have been extensively chronicled on websites like this one and others. For a horse that has earned $54K he has received more than his fair share of hype. After reviewing his fast works I think this cat in bag is going to fire out of the bag quickly and show more speed than expected. I have a growing suspicion that the connections will want him close to the pace to get him used to the faster pace of American racing. Close to the pace will be his undoing, this is a one run closer. He makes his big late run next out but I think the connections want the Florida Derby to be a positive introduction to American racing for Tomcito more than a inauspicious introduction.

Fierce Wind on the rail has won at the distance and track and has four really nice works since the Sam Davis. He has the speed to track the pace and the class to win it. He has a legit claim as a win contender.

Then we have Hey Byrn who has been beating up on allowance foes, over the track and distance he faces a huge class test today could be a poor mans fierce wind as he has a similar running style.

Majestic Warrior despite the stellar pedigree has the shown hints that he might be a closing sprinter, but do you really want to write off this grade I winner so fast? A case could be made here for a massive form reversal. I will let him prove it.

I like that the two top contenders in the race have the far outside post and the far inside post. My friends at the Flushing OTB would say that this race has balanced Feng Shui. With that in mind I wager that both power horses hit the frame. I will play both Fierce Wind and Big Brown.

exacta box 1/12

trifecta 1,12 / ALL / 1,12

No comments: