Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

10 April 2011

Scenes from the Big A: Track side and the paddock area




The current construction at Aqueduct is not the first time this track has had a face-lift. Back in the eighties the third floor restaurant was added and around a decade ago the paddock was altered. The original paddock had the stalls on the opposite side of where they are now and the winner's circle was located close to track side on the grandstand side. Also, the paddock stands were not closed in like they are now. If you wanted to look at the horses before the race, you had to brave the elements to do so.





08 April 2011

Aqueduct Saturday Stakes Racing Preview




This weekend marks two milestones in the year that signify that spring is here, Keeneland runs its April meet loaded with stakes action and the return of grade one racing to New York. Keeneland has gone from a massive speed favoring dirt surface and closer friendly turf course to a racecourse with a pair of surfaces that tend to lean towards horses that have closer tendencies. That being said, it does make handicapping that meet easier, just avoid 90% of the card and play the featured race of the day.

Comely Stakes

This race was moved from a week past the Wood Memorial to the day of the Wood. Ruffian and a few other Hall of Fame fillies have won this race. It is now a grade three that annually features a variation of Florida shippers that have had minor stakes or allowance victories before shipping up and the grizzled runners that have wintered in New York.

Royal Sighting broke her maiden by twelve last out and is immediately stepped into a stakes race. This horse had an unusual path to the winners’ circle in her most recent start. Patrick Kelly’s horses usually drop back early and make a sustained bid in the later stages of the race, Evening Attire did this and so did Naughty New Yorker. Royal Sighting went immediately to the lead and never looked back, in previous starts she was fifth or further back in the early stages before trying to make a run.

Bay Shore Stakes

This race used to be a stepping stone towards the Wood Memorial. Secretariat won this race in his three year old debut and then went on to the Gotham and the Wood Memorial before Triple Crown immortality. Other notable winners of this event are Lost in the Fog, Gulch, Bold Forbes, and Damascus. That is quite a roll call for a race that is a purse downgrade from being a listed stakes race.

J J’s Lucky Train tried his luck at the two turn stakes races at Aqueduct in January and February with a pair of second place finishes. He won a seven furlong race at Laurel on February 26th where he dueled all the whole way with Bandbox, who went on to win the Miracle Wood Stakes in March at Laurel.

Steve Assmussen won this race with J Be K in 2008 after a poor showing at Fair Grounds. This year Justin Phillip is Assmussen’s entry and he had a weak showing in two stakes down in the bayou. Justin Phillip is going to have to be at his best to win from the rail with other speeds lined up outside of him though.

Carter Handicap

The first half of the Repole double is entered here with Calibrachoa, I set the over/under on that double at six dollars on a two dollar wager. Have You Ever is once again entered as a rabbit to ensure a quick pace for his stable-mate. Apriority probably will take a lot of action here as well, he had a monster race last out running three seconds faster than the average time for the distance. Morning Line has had some tough luck in recent starts with second place finishes in the Donn Handicap and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after doing much of the grunt work on the front end. From the looks of it, this race will have a swift early pace.

Wood Memorial


Uncle Mo will probably go off 1/9 here. In terms of value when betting on favorites, there is next to none. With a horse like Uncle Mo, getting 3/5 would be a mixed blessing. Getting sixty cents on the dollar on a horse that usually goes off insanely short and has yet to taste defeat means that you are getting a slight edge on the pari-mutuel competition. On the negative side it also could be a foreboding sign of a negative outcome, so you see why betting favorites is a difficult proposition.

04 April 2011

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Dialed In




Nickname: Ice Box Jr.

First Impression: A deep closing three years old colt trained by Zito, this seems familiar.

The case for this horse winning the Derby: Usually the pace of the Derby is extremely fast and horses who come off the pace fare well in this type of scenario.

Case Against: The same tactics that give Ice Box an edge over his front running rivals also could work against him. The Derby has more traffic tie ups than midtown Manhattan during the afternoon.

Zito once again has a Derby runner after being prominent, but not winning any of the three spring classics last year. This one is probably better than the contemporary that he mirrors, Ice Box. Last year Ice Box went into the Derby with maiden and an upset win in the Florida Derby. Dialed In has three decent efforts to his name this year and a start at two for some classic foundation.

If Uncle Mo doesn’t make the race he could end up being the favorite. If the juvenile champ does run, then Dialed In will probably be one of the commonly used alternatives to Uncle Mo. The key with the closer types is the works leading up to the race. If a closer shows bullets or fast works leading up to a race, the horse is ready to run a big one.

03 April 2011

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Twice the Appeal




First Impression: Didn’t Mine That Bird run in the Sunland Derby race two years ago?

The case for this horse winning the Derby: That last two dollars in my wallet won’t spend itself.

Case against: This race consisted of third stringers and Astrology coming off a November layoff.

The Sunland Derby is on par with the Delta Downs Jackpot as a grade three cash grab to secure a spot in the most famous race on the calendar year for racing. Usually around this time of the year there is a call for reform to the entry system for the Derby, it is usually made by people who want to see a certain horse entered with the though that the gate is not complete without that particular horse entered. Eddington comes to mind for this example.

Last year Drosselmeyer’s fans were bristled by the fact that he did not have sufficient earnings to make the field, tough luck. At this time of the year it is about survival of the fittest, chances are that if you don’t have the dough you missed a chance or two to make up the ground on rivals in the earnings department. In addition to that, there is a field limit of twenty so there are plenty of spots available.

Better get to know a Derby prospect: Pants On Fire




First Impression: Where did that last race come from?

The case for this horse winning the Derby: This prep race is so overdue for a winner.

Case against: He got away with an easy cadence tracking an astronomical longshot early on and just had enough left in the tank to hold off a recent maiden winner Nehro. The favorite, Mucho Macho Man had a wide trip and faltered late. The highly touted Elite Alex was marooned in post 12 after scratching out a week earlier in the Rebel because of a bad post draw.


The intrepid eleven winners of the Louisiana Derby who have attempted the Derby (1997-2010): Mission Impazzible, Fresian Fire, Pyro, Circular Quay, High Limit, Wimbledon, Peace Rules, Fifty Stars, Kimberlite Pipe, Comic Strip, Crypto Star.

20 March 2011

Inner Dirt MVP




The Aqueduct Inner Track meet is nearing its end, much to the delight of more than a few people. I guess it is a case of different strokes for different folks. The inner track meet has the distinction of being a long grinding meet for gamblers and horses alike; it is difficult to string across a sizeable winning streak during this time of year for many.

Inherit The Gold exemplified himself with his consistent brilliance over course of the last four months with a solid four race winning streak that could very well parlay into an appearance in the million dollar Charles Town Classic. He could also stay local with an attempt at glory in the grade three Excelsior Stakes in April on the Aqueduct main track.

His latest victory may have been his most impressive, he faced off against a tough rival in Yawanna Twist who was toting 118 pounds to Inherit The Gold’s top weight of 124 pounds. Yawanna Twist ran against the best of his generation last year, which was capped off with a gutsy fourth place finish in the Preakness versus the best of his generation Lookin at Lucky.

Inherit The Gold has more than a few options after the conclusion of the inner track meet, which he excelled at this year and in the past. He is a proven two turn professional and Monmouth has many lucrative two turn races that are run during the course of their upcoming meet. He also has a win or two over the Belmont oval going the one turn route distances. The future is bright for this gelding after a prosperous winter in New York.

16 March 2011

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!




After Uncle Mo’s rousing comeback to the races this last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, Repole Stable and the soft serve ice cream giant Mr. Softee have reached an agreement to do a cross promotion in the upcoming months. Much like the one that IEAH Stable and UPS had during Big Brown’s vaunted attempt at the elusive Triple Crown. When Mr. Softee representatives were reached for comment they said, ”We are very proud of signing an agreement with a group of sports owners that exemplify a great soft schedule en route to a big event, much like our great soft serve frozen treats.”

Team Repole's meeting with the Mr. Softee people. Not pitcured, a man with an ice cream cone for a head.

Here at Powercap, we pride ourselves on getting the inside scoop on these sorts of stories and we have an early draft design of the Uncle Mo Mr. Softee truck.


06 March 2011

The Pletcher Triple








New York's first big day of the year had Todd Pletcher winning three out of the four stakes carded, basically picking up where he left off last year. Pletcher has taken up the throne that Lukas vacated in the late 90's. Got a stakes race? Pletcher has a horse for that race. Fancy Suits? Check. Well heeled clients with deep pockets? Check. Gray hair? Check. All Pletcher is missing is a pair of shades, he probably already has the Bentley.

Fred Capossela Stakes

The winner faced Soldat in his previous start back in September, Sensational Slam looked no worse for the wear from that layoff. He sat off the pace and won with ease.


Tom Fool Handicap

The first half of the Repole Stable chalk double was captured by Calibrachoa, who could have been had for $40,000 back in November. He has now reeled off three straight stakes victories with the major sprint stakes races on the horizon. It will be interesting to see how this horse stands up to the class of the division from this point on.

Gotham Stakes

The public backed Stay Thirsty and they were not disappointed. This horse probably had a tougher comeback race than what Uncle Mo will encounter considering the circumstances. Stay Thirsty had not won past six furlongs and November layoff was what kept him from being a prohibitive favorite. Chances are the connections of the Gotham winner will ship this horse to Hawthorne or another track with a big purse and a thin field in order to pad the graded stakes earnings.