Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

03 January 2009

Molasses On The Inner Track For New Years Day

Enjoyed the racing at Aqueduct on New Years day. Picked up a few calenders and introduced a few new people to the game. Good thing there were plenty of calenders in the house because they needed them to time the races. Check out some of these times; One mile in 144 1/5th, Dr. Fager could have been unsaddled and on his way to the spit barn inside of that time. Six furlongs in 115 and 2/5ths, I didn't know they could run 61/2 on the inner. Even the stakes race featuring Grade II winner Zada Belle finished up 113 and 4/5ths which is four seconds slower than her last win. What was the cause of these bizarre slow times? Was it the wind or some new post snow track maintenance? Whatever it was that caused the slow times on Friday must have been eliminated. The race times on Friday were in line with thoroughbred race horses and not elderly people pushing shopping carts.

The DRF variant should be 45(very slow) for this day. Yes it was cold and windy but cold does not mean slow. Going into the day I usually presume that speed is going to dominate on a brutally cold day where it is 25 degrees Fahrenheit. To my surprise and to the detriment of the early wagers speed did not dominate. This was a fair racetrack. All run styles claimed a bit of the pie as early pace, pressers and deep closers all won races. It seemed that the two turn races had a closer bias as the speed horses were not only losing but staggering home eased up in the lane. Deep closers won three of the four two turn races.

Looking at the charts the most impressive winner was in the 7th race. The winner Understatement ran a relatively snappy six furlongs in 113 and 3/5ths. This N1X allowance going 1 1/16th had a six furlong split that was faster than the stakes race that went in 113 4/5ths 25 minutes later. Would it be an overstatement if someone stated that Understatement is ready to realize the promise of his huge purchase price? I am going to list him in the stable mail as he did do something somewhat impressive on New years. I am somewhat apprehensive about expecting speed horses to run two big races in a row, but this horse is somewhat fresh, this is the inner track and Todd Pletcher should be able to keep the form rolling for at least two races before the we reach the top of decent in Understatement's form cycle.

1 comment:

G. C. said...

This angle has produced many winners since the post and has been a gold mine. Play of the day winners Understatement and Captivating Cathy are two if the speed winners that emerged from this closer favoring surface.