Welcome to Monday madness at the spa. This is the day that wacky things happen at the old spa. Huge longshots and unlikely results from the graveyard of favorites.
Rarely do I list two plays of the day from one card but today I like two horses in consecutive races. Rather than have to chose between two loves I decided to go dutch and share the love. Call it pari-mutuel polygamy. With these two horses running in consecutive races the doubles/pick 3's/pick 4 become live wagers for me. Either horse in not necessarily a single on every ticket but certainly a key horse that dominates the majority of wagers entered.
Saratoga Race 8 Amsterdam Stakes 6 1/2F Grade II 3Y.O.
Mr. P.C. has been chomping at the bit the bet against the likely odds-on favorite Quality Road. Between the hoof injury, the layoff, the cutback in distance and the barn change; this colt has too many variables in-flux to expect a win. I am going to toss the Florida Derby winner from the win frame. A horse I like here is Capt Candyman Can. He has a great stalking run style, plenty of speed and the birds eye post position on the outside. I also like that blowout workout on Saturday morning. Candy looks primed to run a big race and should provide value along with four legged speed.
Win #6 Capt Candyman Can
Saratoga Race 9 Tap The Admiral Stakes 1 mile inner turf 3 Y.O.
Love the speed and inside post on #1 Royal Vindication. This colt could go wire to wire here on the inner turf from the rail post. He is so fast that the others will likely relinquish the lead and assume that the distance will draw him back to the field. With Royal Vindication loose on the lead there is a likely possibility that he will never relinquish the lead. We are looking for a wire to wire victory in the Tap The Admiral. If Royal Vindication can get the job down we will likely tap into some nice summer brews. The race that many of these horses emerge from is the Don Jack Stakes. That race was won in wire to wire fashion by Sal The Barber who is significantly slower that Royal Vindication. I feel the front is available for Royal Vindication and he has the speed and skills to wire them. Top threat to ruin Royal's party is Strike Again who we will be using a bit as well.
Win #1 Royal Vindication
Stats
33 13-5-1
strike rate 39%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $3.01
Power cap- existential handicapping
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Quality Road was up to the task at 4-5. The factors mentioned did not compromise his effort. Capt Candyman Can had a nice tour of the track starting outside, then touring the rail before getting close look at a backpedeling longshots backside, then switching out 6 wide while then finally ducking in late again to complete the tour. He was up for the place at 9-2.
Stats
34 13-6-1
strike rate 38%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $2.92
Royal made the top but faded in the lane as so many speed horses do on the turf. Strike Again (15.40)did strike as he stalked the pacesetter and took over at the top of the lane.
35 13-6-1
strike rate 37%
cumulative return 99.30
$2 ROI $2.84
Hey PC,
Get ready, I feel another major play-against column coming regarding QUALITY ROAD...let's see how he bounces back from this troubled win on a highway (maiden claimers went 1:09.72 in the last) that couldn't have done his right rear hoof any good.
I loved this colt prior to the Derby and for this event. Despite a stumble at the start he broke the track record!
This is a huge, game colt but he just can't seem to get his legs under him at the start of sprints. I hope they give him ample time between races...he needs more coordination to go along with his physique and talent.
This colt will be RACHEL ALEXANDRA's waterloo, that is if he can stay sound.
Thanks for the tip A.C. This was a huge effort from Q.R. He broke the track record by a full second. I will stay tuned, you seem to have a set of information that I do not have and it seems to have great sprint to route applicability.
Q.R. is the fastest 3 year old colt in training right now, that is not new inforation though.
-nyra1
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