Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

26 October 2010

Mile and Sprint prep races insight

With the Breeders Cup program ten days away it would be in the best interest of anyone handicapping the event to start looking through the charts of the prep races that were run earlier in the month or in the past two months.

Breeders Cup Mile prep races

First Lady Stakes

There is only one contender using this race as a springboard to the mile and it was the winner, Proviso. She has had a remarkable season with four straight grade one wins including a win in March against male competition. Later on that same card the Shadwell Mile was run with the final time 1/5 of a second slower than the First Lady and a slightly slower last quarter of a mile. From what my figures show Proviso ran a her final quarter of a mile five lengths faster than the average for the Keeneland meet, while not lightning fast she ran faster than the average and could be worth using in the exotics.

Shadwell Mile

Gio Ponti won this race with a closing kick of 23 1/5 seconds which seems fast on paper, but the average final quarter for mile turf races at Keeneland has been 23.7 seconds. From the looks of it he was life and death to catch the leader Courageous Cat at the 1/16 pole. He is being considered for the classic as well, which would be a tough mountain to climb with all the top tier dirt horses signed on and the mile would be a better spot to show his talent.
Courageous Cat may be worth a look at a price for the Mile, he may have moved too soon in this race and could have been short on stamina for this effort coming off of a March layoff. With a race under his belt for the mile he could be a horse that sneaks into the picture as a nice paying longshot.

Breeders Cup Sprint prep races

Vosburgh Stakes

Girolamo won this race coming off a disappointing effort in the Forego up at Saratoga and did so by shaking off the challenge of Riley Tucker. This race came up very fast against the average times for six furlongs at the Belmont fall meet, nine lengths faster than normal on my numbers. The field he beat was probably not the most stellar though, the group assembled for this race was zero for their careers in grade one company and Driven by Success lost last weekend against state bred runners at Belmont.

The Ancient Title Stakes

Synthetic racing usually produces lots of times that deviate much from the average times, Smiling Tiger’s win in this race has been the fastest race of the meet by a lot. His half mile time was 44.53 and the meet average has been 45.93, his finish was clocked in 1:09.17 and the average for ¾ of a mile has been 1:11.11. This race did not get a high beyer speed figure either with a 103, there could be value to be had with this horse. If he can transfer his form to dirt from the cushion track he will be a menace to his east coast counter parts.


Anonymous said...

gio pnti was the easiest of winners. proviso was all out.
east coast horses got crushed the last 2 yrs. on a.w.
they will win ALL the dirt races at c.d., except for the marathon. that, and all the gras go to the euros.

Amateurcapper said...

GIROLAMO really impressed me in the Vosburgh. He was inside and steadied behind horses early, only got out to the two path to bid for the lead into the lane when the three path and out was the place to be, yet dug in gamely on the worst part of the track down the stretch. He wins that race by more than five lengths if he got the trip that RILEY TUCKER got.

This isn't the strongest of Sprint renewals and GIROLAMO looks like he's cycling up to his best. I'll give WARRIOR'S REWARD a LS chance as the only confirmed stretch runner in a speed-laden field. RILEY TUCKER may be a CD horse-for-course.

SMILING TIGER will need help from post positions...there's a ton of speed to challenge. Synth/dirt angle has been strong this year in graded stakes races.