Power Cap

Power cap- existential handicapping

01 October 2010

The stars will shine bright on saturday

Six out of eleven races are stakes races and five of them are grade one events. Five out of six stakes races are in consecutive order and a pick five would be a nice wager to have on the menu for this day, alas it isn't an option. NYRA is the last to make any kind of innovation to the wagers being offered, they were one of the last circuits to add a dime superfecta after almost every other track did. An all stakes pick six is an option they could have used though, it is a novelty to have more than two stakes races on a card and much rarer to see six on the same day. NYRA tracks offer an all stakes pick four when there is four of them on the same card, might as well go for the gusto with an all stakes pick six.

Race 3, Star of Cozzene

Stormy's Majesty is in this race, this has been the Power Cap's go to horse for bankroll enhancement the last few months. Not sure what Greg's thoughts are on this race, but from the looks of it Stormy has a good chance to win in this spot. Jackson Bend will be a tougher opponent than Ibboyee, Jackson Bend has faced the best of his generation throughout the first half of the year and his fifth place finish last out doesn't look so bad considering the fact he faced the Travers winner in that spot. Callide Valley probably won't win in this race, but this horse looks like a bargain at the $25,000 he was claimed for two back. Last out he got up for second in a fast race against grade three winner Mr. Fantasy.

Race 6, Vosbugh

In the last couple of years this race has featured short fields with extremely short priced favorites on the tote. This year there are nine entered and no overwhelming favorite in the field. Girolamo will probably end up being the favorite due to his connections and record over the surface. Driven by Success rates a look in this race, he wins over this track and has shown three straight good efforts minus the front wraps. Snapshot has had his best efforts over the Belmont surface and was not that far away from winning the True North Handicap back in June. Temecula Creek may be a live longshot, the Vanderbuilt came up a fast race with some quality runners in that race. This is probably a spread race in the pick threes and doubles.

Race 7, Flower Bowl Invitational

Shared Account ran a solid race in defeat against Proviso last out and shipping up from Fair Hill for Graham Motion nothing but a plus. Forever Together fired a bullet to get ready for this race, the last time she ran a good work like this in preparation for a race she ran third beaten less than a length in the Diana. In her most recent start Keertana was racing near to Forever Together until the half mile pole when she accelerated to the lead. If Red Desire runs anywhere close to her form from Japan everyone else is fighting it out for second money, she ran third in the Japan Cup and was 6-1 in the Dubai World Cup.

Race 8, Beldame

Life At Ten won't have to deal with Rachel Alexandra in this race so the pace should not be a problem here. This mare was running on the inner track during the dead of winter and is a near millionare now, Fleet Indian pulled the same trick during the 2006 season as well and was also trained by Pletcher. Unrivaled Belle is a frustrating horse to watch, she has talent and showed it in her two early season wins, one being a win against Rachel Alexandra. Her last two races as the heavy favorite she sat second the entire trip and could not pass the front runner, going back to last year in the Gazelle she chased Flashing the entire way at short odds. Persistently will probably take a ton of action off her last race where she had the perfect trip, that win was reminiscent of Storm Flag Flying's win in the 2004 edition of the Personal Ensign.

Race 9, Turf Classic Invitational

Paddy O'Prado steps up to the older male competition and goes 1 1/2 miles for the first time. This seems like the spot to bet against a horse like this, Winchester is worth a look in this spot. The distance won't be a problem with a recent win going 12 furlongs and almost winning 1 3/8 miles Bowling Green, he has a recent Grade one stakes win and shows steady form as well. Chances are this race going forward as a Breeders Cup prep won't be a strong race at all.

Race 10, Jockey Club Gold Cup

Blame has some solid competition here with Fly Down and Rail Trip entered. Rail Trip has been working regularly for Dutrow with this race in mind and Dutrow has phenomenal numbers with horses coming off an extended break. Fly Down drilled a four furlong work in 46 2/5 for this and anytime a closer puts in a fast work it usually means they are ready to roll. On paper there seems to be a lack of pace here, the only one who shows any kind of early speed recently is Haynesfield and Rail Trip. Blame is the front runner for Horse of the Year honors off of three starts and if he wins his next two starts it will be hard to deny him the award. He will not be the lightest raced horse to win this award though, that distinction goes to Ghostzapper with only four starts capped off with a win in the Breeders Cup Classic.

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